Taiwan Shock Index

How would a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, or other crises in the Taiwan Strait, impact the world at large? 

Simply put, it would represent the largest shock to the global economic system since World War II.

As part of Global Guardian's 2024 Risk Map, our intelligence also endeavored to create a tool that would measure the impact such an event would have on countries around the globe. In the following model – the Taiwan Shock Index (TSI) – Global Guardian attributes a Low to Extreme categorical risk rating, indicating the degree to which a China-Taiwan conflict could destabilize a given country.

The model uses aggregated quantitative and qualitative data to assign each country a political fragility score and an exposure score which are then multiplied to create a final TSI score. A country’s exposure score measures that country’s trade with China and its neighbors, its foreign direct investment relationship with China, and its reliance on Chinese arms, surveillance, and censorship technology to maintain political control.

Complete the form below to explore the interactive Taiwan Shock Index, and download your copy.