The following analysis is part of Global Guardian's 2025 Global Risk Assessment and Geostrategic Stress Index (GSI), a predictive model that shows what countries are most likely to undergo a polycrisis in the next five years driven by geostrategic concerns. For more information, download and explore the 2025 Global Risk Map.
Current Situation
On 03 September 2024, Venezuelan authorities issued an arrest warrant for opposition presidential candidate Edmundo González, just over a month after the disputed election. The election results, which declared incumbent President Nicolas Maduro the victor with 51% to González’s 44%, were rejected by the opposition, who accused the government of election rigging, proclaiming González the rightful winner. While Panama, the Dominican Republic, Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, Peru, and Uruguay severed or suspended diplomatic ties with Venezuela, others such as China, Iran, Cuba, Honduras, Nicaragua, Bolivia, and Russia were quick to recognize Maduro as the winner.
Following protests over the outcome, the Venezuelan Public Prosecutor’s Office opened a criminal investigation into González and opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, accusing them of inciting violence and insurrection. The Maduro regime has launched a maximum repression campaign, killing dozens, arresting over 2,500 dissidents, going door to door in the low-income barrios looking for protesters, and passing an anti-NGO bill to intimidate civil society and to hinder its ability to continue to organize against the regime.
Venezuela’s ostensibly unfair election comes at a time of increased global geopolitical competition and strife between the West and the Russia, China, and Iran axis, to which the Maduro regime belongs. On 03 December 2023, Venezuela held a referendum on the proposed statehood for the oil-rich Essequibo region governed by neighboring Guyana, raising fears that Caracas is setting the stage for annexation or gray zone warfare against Guyana and the oil consortium active in its waters. The United States (U.S.) is drafting a sanctions list for Venezuelan officials and seized Maduro's plane in the Dominican Republic on 02 September 2024.
History
Venezuela has faced a severe economic downturn in recent years, with a dramatic contraction in output and runaway hyperinflation leading to critical shortages of basic necessities. Additionally, government mismanagement combined with U.S. sanctions have caused a steep decline in oil production and a significant lack of investment in the industry.
In the early 2000s, then-President Hugo Chavez oriented Venezuela toward Russia and Iran, who have since helped preserve the regime in exchange for using Venezuela as a hub for their regional activities. The current Maduro regime has survived multiple destabilization attempts, including a failed 2018 assassination attempt against President Maduro, two uprisings by members of the Bolivarian National Guard in 2019, massive anti-government protests also in 2019, a failed mercenary raid in 2020, and U.S. sanctions.
In 2018, the Trump Administration expanded U.S. sanctions to include financial sanctions, sectoral sanctions (on oil), and sanctions on the government. After the Venezuelan opposition united to run against Maduro in elections due in 2024, the Biden Administration offered sanctions relief to incentivize the Maduro government to enable a free and fair electoral process. But by April 2024, the U.S. rolled back most sectoral sanctions relief due to Maduro officials’ antidemocratic actions that violated an October 2023 Maduro-opposition electoral agreement.
Since 1962, Venezuela has claimed Essequibo, a claim made more critical since ExxonMobil discovered oil in Essequibo's offshore waters, leading to a legal case between Venezuela and Guyana at the International Court of Justice (ICJ). The Essequibo region is the area between the Essequibo and Orinoco rivers, accounting for around two thirds of Guyana's national territory, one sixth of its population, and is key to Guyana’s vast resource wealth. In 2021, President Maduro vowed to “reconquer” Essequibo and announced creation of new maritime territory dubbed “strategic zone of national development” in Guyana’s internationally recognized exclusive economic zone.
Threat Vectors
- Russia: Venezuela is a key ally of Russia, and together with Cuba, it forms the Western flank of the “Axis of Disorder.” Venezuela’s strategic value to Russia comes from its proximity to the U.S., the presence of vast presence hydrocarbons in its vicinity, and its membership to Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Tensions between Russia and Guyana have risen since Guyana pulled Rusal's bauxite licenses after a years-long standoff over labor issues and Russian meddling in Guyana’s 2020 election. Russian private military companies (PMCs) and Cuban intelligence have been instrumental in the Maduro regime’s repression of dissent.
- Iran: Iran and Venezuela are close strategic partners. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Hezbollah forces already present in Venezuela are providing training, equipment, and support to enhance Venezuela's use of UAVs, fast attack boats, and air assault capabilities. Their strategic goals are to continue the expansion their regional narco-terrorism network and to disrupt Guyana's energy and mining sectors. Venezuela’s state-owned flag carrier Conviasa Airlines is heavily involved in Iran’s global illicit arms network, operating a joint venture with Mahan Air, a logistical arm of the IRGC. Since around 2012, Venezuela’s state-owned CAVIM has been domestically producing Iranian Mohajer drones. Venezuela also swaps its heavy oil for Iranian condensate oil, which can be used to make gasoline.
Industry Impact
The ExxonMobil-led consortium of oil companies' current operations have already led to Guyana’s rapid GDP rise, and it is expected to produce 750 thousand barrels per day by 2026. With bauxite and natural gas in both Guyana and neighboring Suriname, the area has the potential to competitively produce aluminum. Increased unrest in Venezuela, coupled with potential gray zone operations targeting offshore oil assets near Guyana could destabilize regional energy markets and disrupt global oil supplies. Such actions might heighten tensions between Venezuela and Guyana, drawing in international actors with vested energy interests and increasing regional geopolitical risks. This instability could lead to price volatility in global oil markets, impacting energy security for major economies reliant on steady oil supplies. Additionally, disruptions in production could undermine investor confidence, deterring future investments in the region's energy and mining sectors.
OutLook
- Maduro is increasingly reliant on colectivos and the Bolivarian National Guard, as he seeks to keep the army insulated from the nasty business of repression. So far, five generals within the army were dismissed on grounds of disloyalty (possibly indicating an unwillingness to repress their own countrymen). Should Machado continue to evade arrest and if her movement can sustain long-term, large-scale protests, it is possible, though unlikely, that Maduro’s security forces may become exhausted.
- If the Maduro regime can afford to keep the army, police, and pro-government militias paid, fed, and in relatively good health, the chances of him exiting office are slim. Political, economic, and security support from Cuba, Russia, Iran, China, and elsewhere are key to maintaining regime stability. While the next U.S. administration may revoke the individual licenses it granted to companies after the “snapback” of sanctions in April 2024, the Maduro regime is likely to weather this latest round of anti-government unrest in the same way it weathered previous attempts at destabilization—through use of force, control of the media and communications, and with continued economic and political support of international patrons. Additionally, with its new Iranian-made missile boats, the Bolivarian Navy could harass oil exploration vessels in the territorial waters of Guyana much the same way China bullies commercial ships in the South China Sea. Caracas may adopt a gray zone approach, much like its allies in Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran; whereby it uses political and military provocations, short of full-on war to better its bargaining position with the West.
Global Guardian's annual Risk Map displays country-specific security risk levels based on a series of indicators including crime, health, natural disasters, infrastructure, political stability, civil unrest, and terrorism.
This year's addition, the Geostrategic Stress Index (GSI), attributes a low to extreme categorical risk rating that forecasts the likelihood of a local crisis taking on regional or global dimensions as countries navigate new cold war relations.
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