As 2025 approaches, learn what Global Guardian's panel of experts think about the year ahead, including risks specific to each region and how businesses should prepare.
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December 20, 2024 INSIDE THIS ARTICLE, YOU'LL FIND: |
As 2025 approaches, global businesses face a rapidly shifting landscape shaped by escalating geopolitical tensions and conflicts, evolving economic policies, and complex security
challenges. The policies and practices of the incoming Trump administration, particularly its emphasis on economic nationalism, bilateralism, and its approach to adversaries, are expected to have a lasting impact on international relations and corporate strategies in the year ahead.
Finally, the panel provides actionable insights and predictions to help organizations build resilience in a volatile world. Whether addressing major risk vectors or navigating complex global trends, businesses must adopt strategies that anticipate and adapt to the challenges of 2025, ensuring they are ready to thrive in an era of uncertainty.
The webinar was led by Zev Faintuch, Head of Research and Intelligence at Global Guardian, and featured insights from Beth Sanner, Former Deputy Director of National Intelligence; Ken Campbell, Retired Senior Intelligence Officer, Department of Defense; and Seth Krummrich, VP of Client Risk Management at Global Guardian.
The webinar began by exploring potential global dynamics in 2025 under the anticipated influence of a new Trump administration. While the former administration’s policies provide a foundation for these predictions, experts highlighted how a second term could amplify existing strategies and redefine international relations. This forward-looking discussion examined the doctrine’s principles and how they may shape the geopolitical landscape moving forward.
At its core, according to Campbell, the Trump Doctrine is built on five key pillars that are expected to drive U.S. engagement on the world stage:
"Economic dominance is central—it’s about putting the American interest first, sometimes at the expense of traditional alliances,” said Campbell.
The panel as a whole emphasized that while these predictions are based on observed patterns from the previous Trump administration, the global environment has evolved. Economic and security challenges—ranging from trade tensions to the shifting balance of power in critical regions—are expected to further complicate the application of these principles.
Experts urged businesses to take these predictions seriously when preparing for 2025. Anticipating potential trade conflicts, diplomatic shifts, and security priorities can help organizations develop strategies to navigate a rapidly changing geopolitical environment. The Trump Doctrine’s pillars offer a framework to interpret these possible changes and their implications for global operations.
The webinar provided a detailed analysis of key regions where geopolitical dynamics and policy shifts are expected to impact global business and security in 2025. Each region faces unique challenges and opportunities, underscoring the importance of understanding localized trends to navigate the complexities of a turbulent global environment.
Headlined by Mexico, Latin America remains a critical region for U.S. interests, marked by a complex interplay of domestic instability, transnational crime, and shifting economic dynamics, chiefly, multinational nearshoring.
“Latin America is going to be a primary area of interest—and that’s great, because every administration for about a century has basically ignored Latin America,” said Sanner. “The real question is, is it going to be the kind of engagement that Latin America enjoys and that will benefit U.S. businesses? That remains to be seen.”
Predictions for 2025 include an increased focus on combating cartels, particularly in Mexico, where organized crime continues to infiltrate multiple layers of the economy, from agriculture to supply chains.
The rise in cartel-related violence and political instability presents significant risks for multinational corporations. Regulatory changes, often driven by political agendas, can create abrupt disruptions, including shifts in tax, labor, and trade policies. Mexico’s leftist administration, characterized by anti-business reforms and underinvestment in security, further complicates the environment.
In Venezuela, tensions surrounding the Maduro regime persist, and as more multinationals nearshore operations in the region, businesses must grapple with heightened risks of corruption, nationalization, and government intervention. Preparing for these challenges will require robust risk management and engagement with specialized regional partners.
In Europe, the transatlantic alliance is under strain as trade frictions and security challenges converge. Tariffs remain a contentious issue, with Europe maintaining higher average tariffs, particularly in agriculture and manufacturing. This imbalance is likely to fuel further trade disputes, as the U.S. pushes for fairer terms while simultaneously seeking greater European contributions to regional defense.
“We’re going to have real trade friction, if not a trade war, a tariff war,” between the U.S. and Europe, predicts Sanner.
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine adds another layer of complexity. With Ukraine facing manpower shortages and declining momentum on the battlefield, there are growing calls for diplomatic solutions. However, European unity is fragile, with weak leadership in key countries like France, Germany and the UK complicating collaborative efforts. Businesses operating in Europe must monitor these dynamics closely, particularly as economic and security policies are increasingly intertwined.
The Asia-Pacific region faces mounting tensions, driven by China’s increasing assertiveness, North Korea’s provocations, and South Korea’s political uncertainty. U.S.-China relations are predicted to remain strained, with continued trade disputes, export controls on critical technologies, and potential retaliatory measures from Beijing. Businesses should anticipate disruptions to supply chains and heightened geopolitical risks as the U.S. doubles down on economic and strategic competition with China.
The Korean Peninsula remains a focal point of concern in the Asia-Pacific, as North Korea is expected to test the resilience of the United States and its allies. As Sanner noted: “The North Koreans do want to test the United States, and real close Korea watchers are worried about a very provocative attack, including kinetic attacks—it was not that long ago where they did these, where North Korea attacks an island, or sinks a South Korean ship. And that is to test the Trump administration as well as the South Koreans.”
These provocations, whether through military actions or missile tests, aim to gauge U.S. responses while destabilizing the region and influencing South Korean domestic politics. Meanwhile, South Korea’s own domestic political turbulence adds uncertainty, with implications for regional cooperation and trilateral partnerships with the U.S. and Japan. For businesses, the Asia-Pacific represents a mix of opportunities and challenges, requiring careful assessment of the region’s volatile environment.
The Middle East continues to undergo dramatic changes, particularly in the wake of the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. This development significantly weakens Iran’s influence, disrupting its proxy networks and complicating its strategic objectives.
“This is really crushing for Iranian strategy, they’ve relied heavily on Syria as a conduit to supply weapons to Hezbollah for years. So the loss of Assad is going to impact Iran and how it sees itself within the greater geopolitical region and tensions, particularly with Israel. They are definitely less secure now—and the Trump administration is going to take full advantage of that,” said Campbell.
The Palestinian issue remains a critical factor in regional dynamics. Efforts toward normalization between Israel and neighboring Arab states, such as Saudi Arabia, continue to face significant hurdles due to unresolved tensions regarding Palestinian sovereignty and rights.
“Saudi Arabia has doubled down on the idea that the interests and future of the Palestinians has to be assured,” said Sanner. “And so that is a problem, especially because the Trump administration is absolutely of two minds when it comes to the Middle East.” The Trump administration’s approach, she noted, has historically aligned with more hardline Israeli policies, which could further exacerbate divisions.
For businesses, the evolving political landscape highlights risks tied to regional instability, particularly in sectors like energy, logistics, and infrastructure. Additionally, the possibility of increased military deterrence measures and shifting alliances underscores the need for adaptive strategies to navigate the Middle East’s uncertainties.
As global disruption becomes the norm, businesses must take proactive steps to mitigate risks and ensure resilience.
"Understanding your vulnerabilities—whether in insurance, duty-of-care providers, or supply chain dependencies—is key to surviving a fast-moving crisis," said Krummrich as he discussed key approaches to corporate preparedness, which include:
The insights shared in this recap only scratch the surface of the critical discussions and expert predictions covered in the webinar. As businesses navigate an increasingly volatile global landscape, staying informed and prepared is more important than ever.
To gain a deeper understanding of the trends, risks, and strategies shaping 2025, we encourage you to download and watch the full 2025 Global Affairs webinar. Equip yourself with the knowledge and tools to anticipate disruptions, mitigate risks, and thrive in the year ahead.
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