One year after the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7th, Global Guardian subject matter experts gathered for a roundtable to discuss how we got here and what comes next.
October 7, 2024
It has been one year since the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel by Hamas. The conflict between the two sides has continued and widened, drawing in other combatants and leading to casualties and destruction across multiple borders, with no end in sight.
As we consider all that has taken place in the last 12 months and what lies ahead, members of the Global Guardian team gathered to discuss the evolving geopolitical landscape in the Middle East. With tensions continuing to escalate in the region, the conversation explored the critical role that international relations plays in shaping current events. Participants also reflected on the complex dynamics of the war and the broader implications for business continuity and risk management.
What follows is a candid exploration of the ongoing challenges that the region, and the organizations operating there, now face.
Seth Krummrich, VP, Client Risk Management at Global Guardian: The major dynamic leading up to October 7th was all about the hope of normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, and more broadly, extending the Abraham Accords. This had the potential to radically reshape the entire region by solidifying alliances and isolating Iran. There was so much to gain from this, and the alliances that were beginning to form were unlike anything I’d ever seen in my lifetime. The possibility of a more peaceful, stable Middle East was right there.
But that’s exactly why Iran saw this as a threat. They couldn’t allow Israel and Saudi Arabia to come together, because that would have left them even more isolated in the region. Iran has spent years building a network of proxies — Hamas, Hezbollah, and others — and they activated those proxies to undermine the progress that was being made. The key moment for them was when Saudi Arabia signaled that it was moving closer to normalizing relations with Israel. That’s when they decided to strike.
If you compare the period before October 7th to where we are now, it’s like looking at two completely different worlds. Before, it felt like the region was moving toward greater stability, with the Abraham Accords extending to new countries. But now, we’re seeing the complete opposite. It’s almost like a strategic photo negative of what could have been.
Zev Faintuch, Head of Research and Intelligence at Global Guardian: Leading up to 2023, there was definitely a storm brewing, and it started to feel very real after the U.S. pulled out of Afghanistan, which was a huge turning point in how the region viewed the West. The chaotic nature of the pullout sent a signal that the U.S., and by extension, the West, was becoming less reliable. It was like a wake-up call for adversaries, showing that we were stuck in a kind of post-Cold War complacency.
After Afghanistan, you could feel that things were starting to shift. There were several key moments that escalated tensions, like the discovery of a major gas field off Lebanon’s coast. Hezbollah used that as an opportunity to issue threats, and they succeeded in getting what they wanted, which emboldened them further. You also had Iran working to unify its fronts, bringing together its various proxies across the region. This strategy, which they’ve been working on for 20 years, began to bear fruit.
Then, during Ramadan, we saw major clashes at the Temple Mount, which led to rocket fire from both Gaza and Lebanon. That was a critical moment because it marked the first time we saw coordinated attacks from two fronts. There were also smaller provocations, like Hezbollah’s increasing boldness on the Israel-Lebanon border. All of these events created the conditions for what eventually happened on October 7th. But the real shock came from Hamas. While many expected a threat from Hezbollah, no one anticipated the scale of the attack that Hamas launched.
Seth Krummrich: You have to go back to when the Abraham Accords were first signed: Israel normalized relations with several Arab countries, including the UAE and Bahrain, and the whole process was kept under wraps until the moment they signed the documents at the White House. This secrecy was crucial because they didn’t want to give Iran or other enemies time to react and derail the process.
When it came to Saudi Arabia, however, things played out differently. The U.S. administration was publicly pushing Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel, and then MBS (Mohammed bin Salman) himself came out and said that they were getting closer to a deal. That was a mistake because it gave Iran time to act. Iran was already feeling the pressure from being isolated in the region, and they knew that if Saudi Arabia signed this deal, it would be a major blow to their influence. So, they activated their proxies — primarily Hamas — and that led to the events of October 7th.
Iran’s strategy was clear: they wanted Israel to react aggressively, knowing that this would damage Israel’s relationships with its Arab allies. By sparking this conflict, they hoped to derail the normalization process, and unfortunately, they succeeded. Saudi Arabia has since backed away from the deal, and it’s unclear when or if those talks will resume.
Zev Faintuch: My outlook is grim. There’s no clear plan for what happens next in Gaza. The situation in the West Bank is deteriorating, and Israel is using its air force there in ways we haven’t seen in decades. On top of that, there’s no viable alternative to Hamas in Gaza. The idea of bringing in the Palestinian Authority to govern seems far-fetched at this point. I think there’s a real possibility that within the next year, Israel could launch a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. If that happens, the entire region could be plunged into a much larger conflict.
Seth Krummrich: I agree that things are looking bleak, but I think we’ll see some short-term gains for Israel. Netanyahu’s immediate goal is to dismantle Hamas and move citizens back to northern Israel. He’s not necessarily looking to destroy Hezbollah — his focus is more on securing Israel’s borders. But for Israel to succeed in the long term, they’re going to have to compromise. The international community is losing patience with the situation in Gaza, and Israel can’t afford to be isolated. They need their alliances, and that’s going to require a shift in strategy. There’s no easy solution, but Israel can’t go at it alone.
Seth Krummrich: Navigating this conflict requires a strategic, phased approach — short-term, mid-term, and long-term planning. In the short term, everything revolves around Gaza. Right now, Gaza is the wound that needs to heal for the region to stabilize. Until there is a clear plan for the reconstruction and governance of Gaza, businesses operating in Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, or anywhere in the region will face ongoing volatility. The first thing any CSO should be asking is, “What’s going to calm things down in Gaza?” Once that begins to happen, the surrounding regions should also start to stabilize, making it safer for operations and less disruptive to business continuity.
In the mid-term, the focus shifts to Iran, which is essentially the puppet master behind much of the unrest. Iran has been leveraging its proxies to destabilize the region, and until its influence is contained, the region will remain unpredictable. The most diplomatic solution would be the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which would isolate Iran and significantly reduce its leverage in the region. If those diplomatic ties can be solidified, it could reshape the power balance and offer more stability to businesses operating in the Middle East.
In the long term, companies need to align with the leaders who are shaping the future of the region — namely MBS (Mohammed bin Salman) in Saudi Arabia and MBZ (Mohammed bin Zayed) in the UAE. These leaders have clear visions extending decades into the future, and they’re focused on building regional stability and growth. They’re thinking in terms of 2030, 2050, and beyond. Their vision is not just about the next few years but the next few generations. And they have virtually limitless resources to make that vision a reality. So, for a CSO, understanding where these power players are steering the region is crucial. If you can align your business strategy with their long-term goals, you’ll be positioning your company for success, no matter what short-term turbulence arises.
Overall, navigating the conflict means keeping your focus on three horizons: short-term stabilization in Gaza, mid-term containment of Iran, and long-term alignment with the region’s future as outlined by its key leaders.
Seth Krummrich: Business continuity has two sides: the flow of business and the safety of employees. Mitigating risks to either is all about preparedness and having the right partners in place. The most important thing a company can do right now is to work with an international security firm that understands the complexities of the region and can offer real-time intelligence, secure transportation, and contingency planning. It’s not just about responding to crises, but about being proactive.
Another key point is that businesses should take advantage of the opportunities that still exist, despite the conflict. Just like companies positioning themselves in Ukraine ahead of the post-war reconstruction, smart companies are staying engaged in the Middle East because they know the region’s importance to the global economy. The opportunities for growth are there, but you do need a partner who can ensure your safety while you navigate those opportunities.
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