In Global Guardian's "Your Questions Answered" series, our experts address pressing questions on current events, providing insight and analysis on the issues that impact your personal safety, business operations, and travel security.
Read below for insights from our analysts and subject matter experts, and get in touch with our team for further support and guidance.
Yes, there are increasing security risks—and the risks are growing. The calculus for U.S. businesses operating in China is shifting rapidly, and executives need to approach travel and on-the-ground engagement with greater caution than ever before.
We are in the midst of a full-scale decoupling between the U.S. and China, and that process is proving to be messy, unpredictable, and increasingly hostile. We're seeing rising barriers across the board—from capital flows and licensing to regulatory restrictions and outright bans. This tit-for-tat escalation means that every action taken by one side is quickly mirrored by the other, and American firms are getting caught in the middle.
Just this week, China announced it will suspend exporting certain rare earth minerals and magnates and stop buying Boeing planes. That’s just one example of how major U.S. industries, many of which are deeply intertwined with China’s economy, are starting to see their access cut off. As these relationships deteriorate, the risk to individual executives, especially those traveling to China, intensifies. Right now, China may still be calculating whether it’s worth targeting foreign personnel, but that calculus is dynamic. We don’t know what will trigger a shift in strategy—but it’s likely coming.
Another important development is that the traditional disincentive for China to engage in arbitrary detentions — the fear of scaring off foreign direct investment — is eroding. With investment already declining and international pressure less effective, China has fewer reasons to hold back. As long as American assets and personnel remain in the country, they represent potential leverage for future retaliation.
One critical tool to monitor is China’s “Unreliable Entity List” from the Ministry of Commerce. If your company is placed on that list, or you are subject to an investigation, detention can become a real possibility. So far, most of the companies listed are in the defense or aerospace sectors, or have ties to Taiwan’s military industry. But that scope is widening. For example, PVH Group, the parent company of Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein, has reportedly been flagged, likely for complying with U.S. sanctions on Xinjiang cotton. Simply aligning with U.S. regulations may be enough to attract scrutiny.
Since China enacted its anti-espionage law two years ago, we’ve advised clients with any ties to the military or U.S. government—including contractors and former government employees—not to travel to China at all. The legal threshold for detaining someone under suspicion of espionage is now dangerously low.
Key Takeaways
For firms with operations, interests, or personnel in China, this is the moment to reassess risk posture, monitor regulatory developments closely, and consider whether business travel to China is truly necessary. The environment is evolving fast, and the stakes are rising with it.The Global Guardian team is standing by to support your duty of care and security requirements with a comprehensive suite of solutions. To learn more about our services, complete the form below or call us at + 1 (703) 566-9463.