In Global Guardian's "Your Questions Answered" series, our experts address pressing questions on current events, providing insight and analysis on the issues that impact your personal safety, business operations, and travel security.
Read below for insights from our analysts and subject matter experts, and get in touch with our team for further support and guidance.
The Israel-Gaza ceasefire deal is indeed fragile, and our assessment aligns with what we've been stating for two months now: the likelihood of the ceasefire extending beyond the initial phase is quite low. There are really no strong incentives for either Hamas to release more hostages or for Israel to maintain the ceasefire.
The external factors keeping the ceasefire in place are twofold. First, the Arab League's peace plan proposal, which was just released this morning, though it's not groundbreaking. Essentially, it's the same concept that's been floated for 15 years. Israel and the U.S. have already rejected it.
The second factor is the religious context—it's Ramadan right now, and Passover is about six weeks away. Last year, we saw a kind of de facto ceasefire during Ramadan, and there were back-channel negotiations to extend the hostages-for-prisoners arrangement over the holidays.
However, without a significant shift in incentives, the expectation is that within the next couple of weeks, we will likely see a return to conflict barring something miraculous. The conditions on the ground and the political realities make a sustained ceasefire very unlikely.
We also assess that the risk level in Israel is now higher, as we’ve seen an uptick in terror attacks, which may soon be complimented by missiles and UAVs from Yemen and possibly other countries if it goes back into Gaza.
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