In Global Guardian's "Your Questions Answered" series, our experts address pressing questions on current events, providing insight and analysis on the issues that impact your personal safety, business operations, and travel security.
Read below for insights from our analysts and subject matter experts, and get in touch with our team for further support and guidance.
This week’s question
December 12, 2024
Which escalating regional conflicts are Global Guardian experts most concerned about as we head into 2025?
Global Guardian’s response
Provided by: Zev Faintuch, Head of Research and Intelligence; Michael Ballard, Director of Intelligence; Seth Krummrich, Vice president, Client Risk Management
As we approach 2025, regional conflicts around the world are intensifying, creating uncertainty for businesses and governments alike.
In the Middle East, Syria stands out as a significant flashpoint. The release of tens of thousands of individuals from Assad’s prisons, some with extremist ties, has created fertile ground for jihadist resurgence. Prisons where the U.S.-backed SDF (a Kurdish-led coalition) are keeping tens of thousands of ISIS prisoners could be abandoned very soon as the SDF focuses on defending themselves from the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) The de facto government Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is itself a jihadist organization that began as Al-Qaeda in Syria. This instability could spill over into neighboring countries, destabilizing Lebanon, Israel, and Iraq. While Turkey remains insulated due to its alignment with the Syrian transitional government, the broader region faces serious risks that could disrupt operations and investments in the Middle East.
In East Asia, Taiwan continues to be a focal point of tension. China’s latest maneuvers around Taiwan and the First Island Chain represent its largest-scale military action since the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1996, demonstrating Beijing’s ability to blockade Taiwan while deterring intervention from the U.S. and Japan. These exercises underscore the growing risk of a potential conflict that could disrupt regional trade and global supply chains. Businesses with interests in Asia must remain vigilant as these tensions evolve, preparing for scenarios that could impact manufacturing, shipping, and market stability.
Beyond these hotspots, Venezuela and Mexico also present emerging risks. In Venezuela, the combination of natural resource control and geopolitical shifts could lead to unrest. Meanwhile, potential changes in U.S. policy under a new administration—such as designating cartels as terrorist organizations—may heighten tensions in Mexico. Both regions carry significant implications for businesses operating in the Americas.
Key Takeaways
- Syria, Taiwan, Venezuela, and Mexico all present intensifying risk to businesses and travelers.
- With such diverse and evolving threats, organizations must proactively assess their exposure and develop strategies to navigate these uncertainties effectively.
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