In Global Guardian's "Your Questions Answered" series, our experts address pressing questions on current events, providing insight and analysis on the issues that impact your personal safety, business operations, and travel security.
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This week’s question
February 13, 2025
What is the current state of the war between Russia and Ukraine as we approach the three-year anniversary, and what comes next?
Global Guardian’s response
Provided by: Zev Faintuch, Head of Research and Intelligence; Seth Krummrich, VP, Client Risk Management
Zev Faintuch, Head of Research and Intelligence: The same structural factors remain. Ukraine continues to face a manpower problem and has been losing ground consistently for well over a year. The current strategy remains trading land-for-land and land-for-time, with Ukraine launching small counter-offensives, such as the recent push in Kursk, to claim bargaining chips.
Two major shifts have emerged in the past year. First, North Korea's involvement has turned this into a broader international conflict, with Pyongyang supplying weapons and using the war to refine its missile technology. Second, Ukraine has begun targeting Russia’s oil infrastructure—refineries, export facilities, and storage sites—applying economic pressure in a way it hadn’t before. This is one of the few avenues Ukraine has to shift the balance.
What does this all mean? The war is going to stop when both sides want it to stop—when they no longer have a reason to continue. And it's hard to expect Russia to stop doubling down if it thinks that it's winning and there’s benefit to continuing the onslaught, which is currently the case.
So, until Ukraine mobilizes the 18-to-25 demographic, I think Russia is going to continue doing this. But conversely, if Ukraine is able to make the politically unpalatable decision to draft its young future, that might be one of the few things that gets us closer to some kind of negotiated settlement.
But we’ve also seen a leaked peace plan—intentional or not—which includes Ukraine not joining NATO, something Russia wants, and Ukraine not regaining much of the territory it’s lost, which I think at this point is realistic. The key question is: How do we get Russia to accept some of those terms when they still have the upper hand? That’s what I think needs to happen for forward movement in peace talks.
Seth Krummrich, VP, Client Risk Management: Russia’s advances are embarrassingly small given the scale of its effort. After three years, the front lines have barely moved. This is a massive failure for the Russian military. Despite their numerical advantage, they’ve taken only a fraction of Ukraine, and at an enormous cost.
The real story isn’t Russia’s progress but how modern warfare has changed. Drone technology has fundamentally shifted the battlefield, allowing smaller forces to hold off much larger armies. The idea that military size determines success no longer holds. If anyone still believes China’s massive military guarantees strength, they only need to look at Ukraine to see how outdated that thinking is.
The toll on Russia is immense. The number of dead soldiers, the loss of fathers, brothers, and sons—this will have long-term consequences. Throwing North Koreans into the fight won’t change that. There will eventually be a negotiated settlement, and Ukraine will likely have to give up land. Many of those regions already had deep Russian ties. NATO membership may also be taken off the table.
But what happens after the war matters just as much. Companies have been positioning for years to enter Ukraine post-conflict, engaging with ministries and preparing for massive reconstruction efforts. That will be the next phase—securing and rebuilding the country. Meanwhile, inside Russia, the cracks in the state will only grow deeper.
And so when I look at Ukraine, as I've said before, it's an absolute unnecessary disaster of epic proportions. Everybody loses that's touched it. It's been toxic for anyone that's had to be involved with it, and let's just hope it ends soon.
Key Takeaways
Three years into the war, Russia’s territorial gains remain minimal despite its numerical advantage, while Ukraine faces a critical manpower shortage. The battlefield has highlighted the rising dominance of drone warfare over traditional military size. A negotiated settlement seems inevitable, likely involving Ukraine conceding some land and shelving NATO ambitions. Meanwhile, post-war reconstruction will be the next major focus, with businesses already positioning for opportunities in Ukraine.
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