In Global Guardian's "Your Questions Answered" series, our experts address pressing questions on current events, providing insight and analysis on the issues that impact your personal safety, business operations, and travel security.
Read below for insights from our analysts and subject matter experts, and get in touch with our team for further support and guidance.
This week’s question
November 20, 2024
President Biden authorized the use of American-made long-range weapons for strikes inside of Russia. How will the use of these weapons impact the conflict, and how will Russia react should Ukraine strike using U.S. missiles?
Global Guardian’s response
Provided by: Zev Faintuch, Head of Research and Intelligence at Global Guardian
The devil is in the details—we still don’t yet know what targets Ukraine is allowed to strike. In the last 48 hours, Ukraine used American Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) to strike an arms depot in Byransk and Anglo-French Storm Shadow missiles to strike a communications hub in Kursk.
In response, the Kremlin announced the revision of its doctrine, lowering the bar for it to use nuclear weapons. While tactically, it will be helpful to hit high-value targets like logistical hubs such as rail, bridges, or ammunition storage, strategically, Ukraine has to hit Russia where it hurts for these tools to become strategically important. This could look like destroying the Kerch Strait Bridge, hitting Russian oil and gas export terminals, storage, and refineries, and destroying arms factories. The other issue here is that it's unlikely that Ukraine has enough ATACMS to really make a dent. It's estimated that the United States (U.S.) only produces around 500 of these vaunted munitions per month.
In terms of retaliation, there is not much more that Russia can do other than continue to rattle its nuclear saber. In strikes on 17 November, Russia used pretty much all of its conventional tools to target Ukraine's civilian population and energy infrastructure. Without using chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear weapons, Russia doesn’t have too many more options to escalate the conflict. And it doesn't need to. It's slowly clawing back territory in its Kursk Oblast and enjoys momentum in Donbas.
This could be "too little, too late" for Ukraine. With the addition of North Korean troops, Ukraine needs more men to stave off Russia retaking more territory in Kursk, which Ukraine desperately needs to trade for land that Russia occupies in Ukraine.
Key Takeaways
- Until we see what Ukraine is allowed to strike, there's no reason to expect that this will change the course of the conflict.
- Russia is already using everything in its arsenal to pummel Ukraine, and that will likely continue regardless.
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