While 2025 will bring familiar challenges, it’s the less obvious threats that will define the evolving security landscape.
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February 10, 2025 INSIDE THIS ARTICLE, YOU'LL FIND: |
As 2025 takes shape, the global security landscape continues to evolve in complex and surprising ways. At Global Guardian, we brought together a group of security experts for a thought-provoking discussion on the challenges and trends shaping the future. From geopolitical tensions to climate-driven crises, our team explored a range of risks businesses and individuals may face in the year ahead.
Together, Global Guardian’s experts identified not only the present risks but also the overlooked and unpredictable vulnerabilities that will define the coming year.
Here are the five security predictions that emerged from our discussion, offering insights to help you stay ahead of the curve, validate investments, and prepare for what’s next.
Prediction: As part of an expanded risk calculus, executives will need to assess and adapt their routines and habits—known as their "pattern of life"—to address vulnerabilities created by predictability.
Rationale: The "pattern of life" concept refers to the routines and habits that individuals maintain, often unconsciously. For the C-Suite, executives, and VIPs, predictable behaviors—such as following the same commuting routes, maintaining fixed schedules, or adhering to repetitive routines—can be exploited by bad actors seeking opportunities for harm. These behaviors create a blueprint that makes targeting individuals significantly easier for both organized threats and opportunistic criminals.
As Erick Turasz, VP of Strategic Partnerships at Global Guardian, explained, "Are you alternating your pattern of life at all? Are you alternating your routes to and from dropping your kids off at school or going to the gym? Are you alternating timing of things, or do you always open the gate at this time when visitors come over?” This type of consistency can inadvertently expose executives and their families to preventable risks.
In addition to targeted attacks, broader societal issues contribute to the risk of random encounters that cannot be planned for, such as altercations with unhoused individuals or mentally unstable persons. These unpredictable threats further underscore the need for robust situational awareness and physical security.
Key Takeaway: By assessing and adapting their "pattern of life," executives can reduce their exposure to both predictable vulnerabilities and random threats, enhancing their overall security and resilience.
Prediction: Political shifts, like immigration tensions and nationalist policies, will provoke widespread protests and societal unrest, disrupting businesses even in seemingly stable regions.
Rationale: The geopolitical posture of the United States, including policies like tariffs, trade disputes and geopolitical alliances, can provoke backlash abroad. Tariffs, for example, can upset local economies and create hostility toward American businesses and executives, particularly when they are perceived as symbols of “big business.” This hostility can manifest as protests or even targeted attacks on American leaders traveling to these regions.
In addition to U.S. policies, broader nationalist movements in Europe, coupled with immigration tensions, are creating a volatile environment that could further disrupt corporate operations. “That’s going to lead to protests, mass demonstrations, and that's going to disrupt business continuity and tourism,” says Seth Krummrich, VP of Client Risk Management at Global Guardian.
This dynamic is a large part of why Global Guardian’s intelligence team has predicted that 2025 will be the start of the “age of the polycrisis.” A polycrisis occurs when multiple global and local crises interact and amplify each other, transforming isolated challenges like geopolitical conflicts, economic distress, and climate change into an interconnected web of escalating threats. For more insights, download Global Guardian’s 2025 Global Risk Map.
Key Takeaway: Companies must expand their risk assessments to include emerging hotspots and account for potential hostility toward their employees abroad.
Prediction: The growing sophistication of digital threats is driving executives to seek deeper insights into their personal cybersecurity vulnerabilities.
Rationale: Beyond traditional corporate networks, private social media accounts, online transaction histories, and personal communications are increasingly being used as tools for adversaries to orchestrate physical targeting or reputational attacks. Many executives remain unaware of how their digital presence can be exploited until they face consequences such as stalking, fraud, the exposure of sensitive information or planning for a physical attack.
"There are going to be a lot more cyber requests for deep dives on the dark web," says Turasz. "Our clients want to know everything that's out there about them and their digital presence. They're asking us to conduct comprehensive assessments of their C-Suite executives, analyzing everything from their personal lives and family connections to their vacation homes and workspaces. We're examining their travel patterns, including air travel, and their complete cyber footprint." These increasingly difficult demands highlight a growing realization among leaders that the personal and corporate spheres of cybersecurity are deeply intertwined.
“Executives are asking about integrated security—physical, digital, and personal. We’re educating them on how everything connects and how we can help,” says Krummrich.
Key Takeaway: The intersection of personal and corporate cybersecurity is blurring, requiring organizations to integrate these services into their overall security plans.
Prediction: The shifting climate will bring disasters like hurricanes, wildfires, and floods to regions historically considered safe, catching businesses and families off guard.
Rationale: The rapid shifts in weather patterns are expanding disaster-prone areas, creating vulnerabilities in regions previously considered low risk. Hurricanes, for instance, are increasingly impacting areas that historically haven’t faced such threats. This shift leaves businesses and individuals in these regions unprepared, often lacking robust evacuation plans and disaster response protocols.
"Not only are the natural disasters happening more frequently and in greater ferocity, but also they're moving from traditional locations,” says Chuck Costanza, EVP for Client Engagement. “They're changing locations because weather patterns are changing. If you were in Florida and were used to a hurricane evacuation plan, and suddenly you're in North Carolina, and your firm doesn't have one, that's a massive vulnerability."
The growing unpredictability of these events also poses challenges for property insurance, as insurers pull back from high-risk areas, leaving homeowners and companies with limited coverage options, and therefore higher financial exposure.
Key Takeaway: Disaster response plans must now extend beyond traditional hotspots to account for emerging geographic vulnerabilities.
Prediction: Economic instability, including market corrections, tariffs, and rising costs of living, will create cascading risks that impact security across industries.
Rationale: The global economy in 2025 faces numerous destabilizing factors, including volatile financial markets, trade disputes, and rising living costs. Cryptocurrency, for instance, has seen a dramatic rise in value but remains unregulated, creating a precarious environment for investors and businesses alike.
As Krummrich explains, "There’s a multi-headed Hydra out there on the financial side. Some people are predicting bursts, or at least some sort of stock market reset. Then you have finance rates, the tariff discussion, and, of course, the U.S. debt. Therefore, when I think business continuity, I would definitely add in those instability factors that are flying around."
This financial uncertainty will have ripple effects on sectors critical to security, such as transportation and supply chain management. Rising costs may push companies to cut corners on protective measures, leaving security vulnerabilities unaddressed. Additionally, economic hardships may fuel an increase in opportunistic crimes, such as fraud, theft, and cyberattacks, disproportionately affecting high-net-worth individuals and corporations.
“Rising costs are forcing companies to cut corners on security, and that’s leaving gaps that can be exploited. It’s an area that needs more focus, not less, when things are tight,” says Krummrich.
Key Takeaway: Financial health and security preparedness are increasingly intertwined, requiring businesses to budget strategically to maintain comprehensive protection.
While 2025 will bring familiar challenges, it’s the less obvious shifts—unexpected regions for natural disasters, the rise of localized protests, and the overlap of personal and corporate cybersecurity—that will define the evolving security landscape. Organizations and individuals must embrace proactive and innovative approaches to address these dynamic risks and ensure they are prepared for both the predictable and the unexpected.
At Global Guardian, we understand that staying ahead of these risks requires more than just awareness—it requires actionable planning and tailored solutions. From comprehensive risk assessments and disaster response planning to integrated physical and digital security services, we are equipped to help you safeguard what matters most. As the threat landscape continues to evolve, let us partner with you to navigate the challenges ahead and build a resilient strategy for the future.
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