Strategic UPDATE 

After Russian forces secured Lysychansk—marking the completion of its capture of the Luhansk oblast—Russia paused from 04 July to 16 July to regroup and reconstitute its forces. The slow-moving offensive in Donetsk has resumed, yet the Donbas (Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts) is no longer the center of gravity of the conflict.

• On 20 July, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov declared that the geographical objectives of Russia have changed from just the Donbas to now include Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts.
• Since the end of June, Ukraine has deployed between 8-12 U.S.-made High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) which have been incredibly effective on the battlefield despite their low number. Ukraine now has the ability to target Russian ammunition, supplies, and command and control centers well behind the front lines. This development has forced the Russians to disperse/decentralize their logistics depots further slowing down the Russian offensive in the east and making it more difficult for Russian defenders in the south to obtain supplies. 
• On 19 and 20 July, Ukraine targeted the Antonovskiy Bridge on the Dnipro River in Kherson oblast. The bridge is one of two key river crossing points, making it a vital supply line for Russian forces in Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Kryvyi Rih regions. Ukrainian forces have been softening Russian positions in Kherson for over a month attacking both frontline defenses as well as command and control centers and logistical nodes. It is possible that the efforts to prevent Russian resupplying of its forces on the west bank of the Dnipro mean that Ukraine will escalate its counter-offensive in the south in the coming days and weeks.
• On 13 July, the European Commission revised its guidance on Russian sanctions, carving out an exception for goods transported from Russia to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad via Lithuania by rail. Almost a month earlier, Lithuania began to implement EU sanctions on Russia effectively cutting off Kaliningrad from Russia. The solving of this impasse greatly reduces tensions between Russia and the Baltic states, which stood to bear the brunt of Russian intimidation tactics. 

Executives seek briefings on Taiwan war risk

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has global business executives looking more closely at geopolitical hot spots—and the potential war over Taiwan is at the top of the list.

In a Financial Times article, CEO Dale Buckner comments on how Global Guardian is briefing companies on the risks associated with this potential conflict and helping executives prepare their contingency and evacuation plans.

Situation UPDATE 

On 24 June, the United States Supreme Court (SCOTUS) ruled on the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization case, siding with Dobbs (the state of Mississippi). In doing so, SCOTUS overturned Roe v. Wade (federally guaranteed constitutional right to abortion access) and placed the issue in the hands of state legislatures. The ruling on this highly polarizing socio-political issue comes ahead of the November mid-term elections and will be leveraged politically. Protests by pro-choice activists and counter-protesters are likely to occur in major cities across the U.S.

While these protests will likely remain peaceful, some could turn violent as bad actors—lone wolves and domestic extremist groups—seek to take advantage of the situation. There is an increased risk of vandalism and violence against churches, abortion facilities, and pharmaceutical sites. 

Known planned protests for later today include:

• Austin, TX: Outside the Federal Courthouse Plaza located at 501 West Fifth Street
• New York City, NY: Washington Square Park and Union Square
• Washington, D.C.: Supreme Court
• Over the weekend, protests in the following cities are already planned and more are expected: Atlanta, GA; Boston, MA; Chicago, IL; Houston, TX; Los Angeles, CA; New York, NY; Philadelphia, PA; San Francisco, CA; and Seattle, WA.
• Additional protests in other cities across the country are likely. 

A TRAVELING EMPLOYEE EXPECTS DUTY OF CARE. HERE'S WHY.

“The real benefit of having a service provider manage duty of care is that we act as the connective tissue between the traveler and their organization. We provide the reach-back capability, real-time direction to the traveler, and accurate information to decision-makers sitting in the head office who can then make decisions that are founded in fact...”

In the latest issue of the National Defense Transportation Association’s Defense Transportation Journal, Global Guardian SVP of Strategic Partnerships Michael Coleman outlines the key components of effective duty of care and how a corporate traveler and their employer both benefit from the support of a vetted provider in the event of an emergency.

Click below to read the article in the Travel Issue, featured on page 10.

Strategic UPDATE 

On 18 June, Lithuania began to impose a ground transit ban on EU-sanctioned Russian goods (steel, wood, coal, oil products, heavy machinery, luxury goods, amongst others) coming from Belarus to Kaliningrad, effectively cutting off the exclave from the rest of Russia. On 21 June, Moscow warned that Lithuania will face consequences "in the near future" unless it allows the trains to pass. The only remaining transit route now is by way of the sea through international waters since Russian planes are banned from EU airspace. Russia has few meaningful response options that both fall short of triggering an escalation with NATO and alleviating the strain on its Baltic Oblast.

• Kaliningrad–which is located between Lithuania and Poland along the Baltic sea–is the home of Russia’s Baltic fleet and around one million people.
• As a preliminary show of force, Russia is conducting provocative maneuvers on Estonia's border, violating the NATO member's airspace with helicopters and simulating missile attacks. 

• The most likely responses from Russia will include any or all of the following:
  • Continued aggressive rhetoric
  • Military drills along the borders of the Baltic states
  • Cyber attacks on the public and private sectors in the Baltics and even EU at large
  • Harassment of commercial vessels in the international waters of the Baltic sea
• Ultimately, Russia will likely opt to supply Kaliningrad by sea as it pushes for a settlement with the EU to resume ground transport of sanctioned goods and oil.
• Meanwhile, the slow tempo battle for the Donbas continues in Ukraine with both sides’ capabilities and manpower continuing to be depleted. Though Russia's capture of Luhansk Oblast looks increasingly likely.

War in Ukraine, COVID-19 is changing the security landscape

"These extreme events that were previously thought to have been things of the past have returned with a vengeance. The clustering of such events speaks to the covariate nature of risk in today’s world. From geopolitics to the digital realm, the COVID-19 pandemic has ushered in an era where bad actors at both the state and substate levels are taking advantage of uncertainty."

In a recent article on SecurityInfoWatch.com, Director of Intelligence Michael Ballard outlines the global threats—geopolitical instability, ransomware and cryptocurrency attacks, 3D-printed arms, and the pandemic-fueled increase in crime—continuing to present security challenges for organizations around the world, as highlighted in Global Guardian's 2022 Worldwide Threat Assessment. Michael also offers suggestions for businesses to minimize the potential impact from these threats and protect their people and operations.

BLOOMBERG BALANCE OF POWER INTERVIEW AT 34:30

“...Understanding what is the risk of your personnel in Taiwan, what is the risk of your personnel in Hong Kong, and then of course, the obvious high-risk markets—the question is, do they need to be there? Should their family be there? What is your exposure and do you have a real evacuation plan if things go sideways?"

President and CEO Dale Buckner was featured on Bloomberg Balance of Power with David Westin discussing Global Guardian's recently released Worldwide Threat Assessment and the geopolitical and cyber threats that multi-national companies face, including those stemming from the ongoing situation in Ukraine.

Click below to watch the full video. If interested in skipping ahead, Global Guardian segment begins at 34:30.

Strategic UPDATE 

Russian forces continue to make incremental progress in the east under the cover of overwhelming artillery barrages. The main fighting is concentrated around the cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk in Ukraine’s eastern Luhansk oblast. Overall, the war has slowed and morphed into an artillery slogfest in the Donbas as Russia has changed its tactics. It is unclear how much longer Ukrainian forces will hold their positions before retreating in Luhansk.

• Per the Kremlin, Russian and separatist forces now control 97% of Luhansk oblast, one of the two regions that comprise the Donbas—the current main objective of Russia's campaign. From a public relations point of view, Moscow will undoubtedly claim a victory that will bring them closer to capturing the entire Luhansk oblast. 
• Over the last week, the U.S. and UK have announced that they will provide Ukraine with M142 and M270 multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS). These advanced rocket systems will give the Ukrainian forces the ability to accurately attack Russian forces and artillery far behind their lines (50mi/80km range). When deployed in-theater, these systems will double the current effective range of Ukraine's artillery corps. If more than a symbolic number is given, these weapons could be very helpful for Ukrainian counterattacks and to destroy Russian artillery.
• On 31 May, President Biden penned a New York Times op-ed to help offset the escalation risk associated with providing Ukraine with long-range artillery systems: "So long as the United States or our allies are not attacked, we will not be directly engaged in this conflict, either by sending American troops to fight in Ukraine or by attacking Russian forces. We are not encouraging or enabling Ukraine to strike beyond its borders..."
• While Ukrainian Forces have already attacked positions in Russia near the border using Soviet-era weapons platforms, a deliberate or accidental usage of the U.S. or UK-supplied rockets against targets on Russian soil would escalate the situation, as Moscow has repeatedly issued threats regarding this scenario that will be difficult to back down from.
• Additionally, multiple countries have re-opened embassies in Kyiv as risks from the conflict shift east. These include the U.S., India, Sweden, South Korea, and others. 

'You are on your own': Global Guardian CEO warns of digital threats to U.S. businesses

“We are seeing our Fortune 1000 clients reassess who is key and essential, do they need to be there, should their family be deployed to that country, what do those rotations look like, and what is the risk. All of that calculus is being reevaluated globally for the Fortune 1000 and large European headquarters around the world.”

In a recent interview on Yahoo Finance, CEO Dale Buckner shares information about Global Guardian's recently released 2022 Worldwide Threat Assessment, which highlights the top risks Global Guardian has identified for businesses that operate globally. Dale weighs in on geopolitical issues, including the United State's diminishing global power and influence, the risks of ransomware and cryptocurrency attacks, and the increase in crime across the world—and how these threats impact the security and operations of multinational companies.  

Strategic UPDATE 

Few developments occurred along the front in Ukraine as officials inside of Russia again downsized ambitious goals to push entrenched Ukrainian forces out of the Donbas. Russian leadership has begun to justify long-term conflict and occupation in public statements, potentially preparing for some degree of forced mobilization to replace exhausted forces.

• Officials including Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu have increasingly openly admitted that the Russian offensive in Ukraine is moving slower than anticipated. Foreign Intelligence Service Director Sergey Naryshkin justified the slow pace by affirming that the goal of the operation is to ensure “Nazism” is “100% eradicated”, indicating that Russia is setting conditions for a protracted war in Ukraine to justify slower and more measured advances.
• Putin signed legislation on 25 May to simplify obtaining Russian citizenship for those in Russian-controlled territory in Ukraine's southern Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts. Known as ‘passportization’, the process mirrors steps Russia took in the aftermath of the Russo-Georgian war in 2008 and signals that Russia is not considering voluntarily returning conquered territory to Ukraine.