Russia’s assault on Kyiv continues to be stalled as Ukraine continues limited but effective counter-attacks west and north of the capital. The prospect of S-300 weapons shipments from Slovakia may soon be realized as Russia warns against materiel support for Ukraine. 

• According to a report, the U.S. will be sending Ukraine old Soviet SA-8 surface-to-air missile systems (SAMs). The SA-8 is a tactical, air defense system that is highly mobile and will be used to provide cover for ground forces.
• This report comes as NATO partner countries have provided Slovakia with the Patriot air defense system, meeting Slovakia's condition for it to, in turn, send its S-300 SAMs to Ukraine. The S-300 is much more advanced than the SA-8 and would constitute a game-changing weapons transfer to Ukraine, diminishing Russia's ability to conduct airstrikes and possibly even intercept some of Russia's missiles. Russia has stated it will prioritize targeting suspected weapons shipments if the S-300s enter Ukraine, both increasing the risks of an escalation with NATO, and decreasing the overall safety levels of Western Ukraine.  
• On 19 March, Russia’s Ministry of Defence announced the first operational use of the nation’s new Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic missile in a strike against a weapons depot in Ukraine’s western Ivano-Frankivsk region. The use of this new weapon system can be seen either as a final warning against potential S-300 transfers or it may be an indication that Russia is running low on the precision-guided missiles it has been using to strike targets in western Ukraine.
• On 19 March, Belarus' embassy staff left Kyiv, mirroring the departure of Russian diplomats just days prior to the invasion. This evacuation, along with Russia's freezing repayment of Belarus's loans to Russia may point to more direct Belarussian involvement in the conflict. 
• Kyiv has renewed its curfew. The curfew began at 8:00 PM (local time) on 21  March and will last until 07:00 AM on 23 March. During the curfew, movement through the city without special passes is prohibited.

• In the south, Mariupol remains under siege as Russian troops slowly advance into the city while seeming to abandon near-term plans to assault Odesa. According to (unverified) local sources some 80% of the city's infrastructure is damaged or destroyed as the humanitarian situation becomes increasingly dire. Reports have emerged that Russian forces have detained thousands of civilians with some being transferred to Russia.
• The question remains if Mariupol is being made an example of in order to add credence to the impending threat to Kyiv, or if this brutality is only meant for Mariupol, a city that saw intense battles in 2014. The alleged actions of Ukraine's far-right Azov Battalion in Mariupol serve as a key component to Russia's "denazification" narrative and its stated political objective. 
• Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine continue to progress slowly. Stalling from Ukraine is making a comprehensive ceasefire agreement unlikely in the short term, while Russia seeks to impose higher costs on Ukrainian cities to force serious negotiations. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian General Staff has reported that Moscow is preparing its population for a long war scenario, which would include mass mobilization.  

Odessa, Ukraine ‘next’ as Russian Navy is postured over water: Col. Dale Buckner

In a recent interview with Maria Bartiromo on Mornings with Maria on Fox Business, CEO Dale Buckner weighs in on Russia's advancements in Ukraine based on what Global Guardian's on-the-ground teams are experiencing amid evacuation efforts. Dale also shares insight into Russia's military strategy and possible developments in the situation based on his special forces and military experience. 

Lviv

• A Russian cruise missile strike destroyed an aircraft repair plant in Lviv. The strike raises concerns over Lviv's relative safety and underscores Russia's commitment to degrading Ukraine's military and civilian industrial base. 
• In an interview with Russian news organization RT on 18 March, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated that NATO weapons transfers will be treated as targets. This could increase threats against Lviv, which has served as a main transfer point for foreign military assistance.

Kyiv

• Around Kyiv, Russian advancements from the west and northwest remain stalled. Russian artillery continues to target population centers in and around Kyiv.

Kharkiv

• Russian forces continue to shell Kharkiv, but have not launched any major assaults on the city. To the south of Kharkiv, Russian forces launched several unsuccessful attacks to bypass Izyum on 16-17 March after failing to take the town through frontal assaults.

Mariupol, Kherson & Odesa

• Mariupol remains under brutal siege as Russian forces target civilian infrastructure.
• Near Kherson, Russian forces continue to reinforce existing positions as part of a larger operation to defend the city—the only large city under Russian control—and its airbase. 
• In Odesa, Russian forces appear unlikely to launch an unsupported amphibious assault as elements of Russia’s 810th Naval Infantry Brigade were deployed to Mariupol on 16 March after being held in reserve.

RU-UA Negotiations

• Ukraine has reportedly called for Turkey and Germany to act as guarantors of any Russian ceasefire deal. Ukrainian President Zelensky may be seeking to stall negotiations for a better deal as Ukrainian forces successfully extend the Russian assault far beyond its allotted resources and Western sanctions take effect.

Russia: Putin Sets Sights Within

• In a meeting held on 16 March, Putin warned that the real threat to Russia is a “fifth column” of “traitors” who believe Western information on Russia’s war in Ukraine. Putin’s statements of a “purification of society” may precede legislative action further tightening restrictions on civil society. Exit bans have anecdotally been reported, along with intensive questioning of Russian citizens attempting to leave the country. 
• On 17 March, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was reportedly halfway to China before his plane reversed course and returned to Moscow. Both Russia and China have denied the event which may signal a diminishing of support for Russia’s war in Ukraine from China.

On the World Stage

• Slovakia has pledged to send Ukraine S-300 long-range surface-to-air missiles if NATO provides a “proper replacement”. The air defense systems would replace the few possessed by Ukraine at the start of the war and allow Ukrainian forces to target Russian warplanes at an increased distance.
• In turn, the Russian Foreign Ministry warned that the transfer of S-300s by NATO to Ukraine would "create problems" for the donor countries. 
• Uzbekistan, traditionally a Russian ally, has broken with Russian recognition of the conflict and called for an end to the war in Ukraine, suggesting that Russia’s inability to wrest an immediate victory in the war has even its long-time allies concerned.

• Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have been promising according to both sides, but an agreement remains out of reach. Ukrainian President Zelensky said terms have become more realistic, but “time is still needed for the decisions to be in Ukraine’s interests”.
• Zelensky addressed the U.S. Congress again the morning of 16 March to call for support, after which President Biden announced an additional $800 million in security assistance to Ukraine. Funds will supply Ukraine with additional anti-armor and air-defense weapons, bringing total U.S. assistance to Ukraine over the past week to $1 billion.
• On 15 March, the prime ministers of Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovenia made a joint visit to Kyiv, traveling into the warzone to meet with President Zelensky. The EU and NATO leaders returned to Poland the next day, hoping to draw more support to Ukraine in the war and its ambitions for EU membership.
• Two journalists working for Fox News were killed outside Kyiv on 15 March after their vehicle came under fire. The attack follows the death of another journalist outside Kyiv on 13 March, underscoring the danger of traveling in the warzone where army positions are fluid, and the front line is difficult to identify.
• Ukrainian intelligence stated on 15 March that Russia is redeploying forces from the east, Georgia, and Armenia. Authorities believe Russia will use these forces to hold captured territory for a renewed offensive in stalled battlegrounds such as Kyiv.
• Belarus' Lukashenko reiterated that Belarussian forces would not engage in Ukraine.
• President Zelensky extended martial law for an additional 30 days from 26 March. Martial law will allow authorities to impose curfews and restrict entry into and exit out areas.

A PRIVATE COMPANY HAS EVACUATED 6,500 PEOPLE FROM UKRAINE

In a recent article in Defense One, Global Guardian President and CEO Dale Buckner discusses how the company is actively supporting its clients in Ukraine and shared the details of the evacuation process, including how the team determines if evacuees can be reached, the logistics around the journey, and what the support looks like when the evacuees reach the border. 

Think you're being tracked? Here are 3 ways to protect yourself

In a recent interview filmed at Global Guardian's Charlotte, NC-based 24/7 Security Operations Center for WBTV's Safety First, Asset Security President Andrew Vanderburg discusses how the popular GPS trackers known as Air Tags can be used by malign actors to track your whereabouts and steal from you. Andrew also weighs in with what you should do if you find an unknown device in your belongings and steps to take to protect yourself. 

GLOBAL GUARDIAN RESPONSE UPDATE

Since the onset of Russian's invasion of Ukraine, Global Guardian has evacuated clients and their families from over 15 locations across the region, including Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia. As the situation deteriorates and Russian forces continue their advances, the risks associated with targeted cities has evolved to where evacuation is no longer tenable.

Below is an update on our current response capabilities as of Monday, March 14, 2022. Should you have any questions on how our team can support or would like to request custom intel reports, please contact our team at +1 (703) 566-9463 or email us here. 

• Russian Direct Threat - Russian forces continue to advance in and around the following cities and Global Guardian will NOT execute missions there moving forward, unless the threat decreases or approved with exception by Global Guardian's CEO:
  • Kyiv
  • Poltava
  • Kharkiv
  • Slvyansk
  • Donetsk
  • Zaporizhzhia
  • Mykolaiv
  • Vonesensk
• Accessible Cities (for now) - Cities still functional and accessible but under threat in the near future:
  • Odessa - could fall to a Russian amphibious assault at anytime
  • Dnipro - increasingly under air and missile attack
  • Kremenchuk
  • Cherkasy
  • Kropyvnytskyi
  • Bila Tserkva
  • Vinnytsia
  • Khmeinytskyi
  • Lviv
  • Ivano Frankivsk
  • Ternopil
  • Lutsk
  • Rivne
  • Sherpetivka
• Increased Risk & Cost
  • All evacuations moving forward will be considered HIGH to EXTREME RISK based on the increased threat.
  • Evacuation Teams will NOW consist of only ARMED AGENTS with FULL TACTICAL EQUIPMENT and potentially ARMORED VEHICLES and additional time will be required in planning to assess the threat.
  • Cost will potentially increase for assets depending on the requirement.

SITUATION UPDATE

• Over the weekend, Russian forces increased strikes in Western Ukraine. Ukrainian airfields have been targeted and the Yavoriv International Centre for Peacekeeping and Security—a training center and key waypoint for western arms—was struck on 13 March, killing 35 Ukrainians. The attack was meant to signal that no part of Ukraine is safe from Russian missiles and that NATO weapons transfers will be targeted once they reach Ukrainian soil.
• The last few days have seen very limited Russian advances as Russian forces have effectively paused most of their offensives as they regroup. Most of Russia's military gains have been in the Donbas and in the southern oblast of Mykolaiv.  
• Russia is drawing down its international deployments in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh and pulling troops from its far east to reinforce its operations in Ukraine. Other reports indicate that Russia has opened recruitment centers in Syria and Libya.
• Western leaders have issued warnings—falling short of red lines—to Russia about potential chemical weapons usage. On Friday, President Biden said that there would be a "severe price" for Russia, while Polish President Duda warned on Sunday that weapons of mass destruction would be a “game-changer” for NATO.
• President Putin has begun to purge military and intelligence personnel. Sergey Beseda, head of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) foreign intelligence branch was reportedly arrested along with his deputy, Anatoly Bolyukh. This high-level arrest follows other reports that Putin has replaced over eight generals and several other key figures in the FSB’s Ukraine branch over significant operational failures.
• According to U.S. officials, Russia has asked China for military equipment and economic assistance. This report was leaked as Jake Sullivan, US national security adviser, meets with a Chinese counterpart in Rome on 14 March. 
  
  

RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR: HOW PRIVATE SECURITY GROUPS ARE PLAYING A ROLE IN EVACUATIONS

“In the last 12 days, every mission, every evacuation we’ve executed has included children, family members, grandfathers, grandmothers, and relatives."

Dale Buckner joined Yahoo Finance to discuss the latest updates happening on the ground in Ukraine, including how the team is continuing to step in and support clients and civilians, reuniting families and bringing them to safety. During the conversation, Dale also explained the comprehensive Global Guardian model, including how our global emergency response capabilities allow us to support clients in all types of crises. In addition, Dale shared in all crises the team is ultimately looking for a safe zone - focusing on where individuals are located, where is the threat, and where can we move them and bring them to safety.

UKRAINE WAR: ARE FOREIGN FIRMS TAKING CARE OF THEIR LOCAL STAFF?

In a recent article in Financial Times Intelligence, President and CEO Dale Buckner discusses the growing trend of corporate headquarters feeling responsible for their local national employees in foreign markets, and how Global Guardian assists these firms in fulfilling their duty of care obligations, including evacuation assistance out of Ukraine. 

SIMPLE HABITS ZELENSKY MUST ADOPT TO AVOID RUSSIAN ASSASSINATION

“Just burning that adrenaline for so long, at a certain point, you kind of start to get that zombie effect almost,” he said. “We’re picking up people now that start to look like that a little bit. It's scary. It's not good.”"

In an interview with Yahoo News Australia, Global Guardian President and CEO Dale Buckner shares insight on Russia's war on Ukrainians mental health, the key measures being used to keep President Zelensky safe from Russian assassins, and how NATO is working to “find a balance” between maximizing military support for Ukraine without “crossing that line, and then hitting a tripwire, and starting World War III”.