On 22 April, terrorists from the "Kashmir Resistance" (likely an offshoot of the Pakistani Islamist jihadi group, Lashkar-e-Taiba) claimed responsibility for the attack in Kashmir's Baisaran Valley that left 26 Indian tourists dead and 15 more injured. The attack in India-administered Kashmir has sparked significant policy changes from both India and Pakistan and risks a larger regional conflict between the two nuclear-armed powers.
Situation Report
- Since the attack, India has:
- Cancelled all visas for Pakistanis
- Suspended the Indus Waters Treaty
- Closed the Wagah border crossing
- Recalled all Indian diplomatic personnel from missions in Pakistan
- Declared all Pakistani military advisors stationed in India persona non grata and ordered them to leave the country
- Pakistan responded on 24 April by:
- Halting all trade with India
- Closing airspace to Indian carriers
- Revoking visas for Indian nationals
- Declaring any Indian interference with water supply to Pakistan as an act of war
Unconfirmed reports from Pakistani media indicate that India has partially limited the flow to the Chenab and Jhelum rivers with water flow levels decreasing from yesterday.
AnalYsis & Forecast
- Pakistan’s security service, the ISI, likely approved, if not directed, this attack and took advantage of the timing of world events to grab maximum global attention and keep the Kashmir issue going. On the day of the attack, U.S. Vice President JD Vance was visiting India, and Indian Prime Minister Modi was visiting Saudi Arabia.
- The Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 is considered one of the most successful water-distribution agreements in history, and withdrawal from the treaty by India is meant to send a strong signal.
- As the Indus River and its tributaries supply around 75% of Pakistan’s water demand, Pakistan views diversion as an act of war.
- While India has many levers it can pull as far as a response (Indian commando raids, cruise missile strikes on terrorist camps inside Pakistan, drone swarms, covert assassinations), it may choose to call Pakistan’s bluff by diverting water flow first and seeing how far they can push that before Pakistan backs down.
- The forecast remains unclear. India and Pakistan, both nuclear powers, are climbing the escalation ladder. Neither wants full-blown war, but PM Modi now finds himself in a “commitment trap” whereby if he does not act, he loses domestic political support and undermines deterrence gained from the 2016 and 2019 strikes in Pakistan.
- Unless Modi is willing and able to dominate the escalation ladder, he risks undermining deterrence, opening the door to further terror attacks within India.
Recommendations
- Reconsider travel to border areas between India and Pakistan.
- Determine risks to operations in both India and Pakistan.
- Consult with your travel security and emergency response partners around possible outcomes and specific guidance in a worst-case scenario.
STANDING BY TO Support
Global Guardian is closely monitoring the situation and can support clients who need assistance with local teams in the area to provide:
- Executive protection
- Secure transportation
- Emergency response
- Intelligence reports
- Risk assessments
