Open-source trackers estimate steeply declining launch numbers of ballistic missiles targeting the Gulf states and Israel. Day one of the conflict saw Iran launch some 350 missiles with declining barrages since then. Day two: 175; day three: 120; day four: 50. This is likely due to significant destruction of mobile launchers by the U.S. and Israel and Iran "rationing" their missile stockpile in anticipation of an extended conflict. Drone attacks remain consistent; however, Gulf states continue to intercept the majority of both drones and missiles.

Israel struck the meeting of 88 members of the Supreme Council who were gathering in Qom to decide the next Supreme Leader. As such, no official decision was reached or declared by Iran, though rumors persist that the son of the late Ayatollah, Mojtaba Khamenei, was not killed in strikes and is slated to become the next Supreme Leader. This has only been reported by Israeli media and Iranian opposition groups, with no confirmation from Iran itself.

President Trump ordered the U.S. Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide risk insurance and guarantees for shippers and shipping insurance companies to continue moving in and out of the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. Navy will escort tankers through the Strait and provide protection.

While Iran continues to attack the Gulf states and Israel, it has increased focus on Iraq and the Kurdish regions after reports emerged that the U.S. CIA has been arming and preparing Kurdish militia for possible ground conflict against the regime. The IRGC claims ground forces entered Iraqi Kurdistan with 200+ drones. While Iranian drone strikes have targeted Kurdish militia around Erbil, there has been no confirmation of Iranian troops in Iraqi Kurdistan. Erbil airport and the U.S. airbase there continue to come under drone attack.

Iran continued to target oil and gas, shipping, and aviation infrastructure in the region primarily with Shahed drones but also ballistic missiles. The Gulf states have intercepted hundreds of projectiles over the past 24 hours, however, some slipped through, causing damage to ports, U.S. embassies, tankers, and energy infrastructure. This has caused closures or suspension of operations at multiple ports and petrochemical sites in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, and Qatar. The airport and U.S. airbase in Erbil, Iraq came under heavy air attack. It remains open but effectively non-operational for commercial traffic.

President Trump outlined four war goals: destroy missiles, annihilate the navy, block nukes, and stop proxy funding. He announced the conflict could go on for four to five weeks and that the U.S. had yet to launch its biggest wave of attacks targeting Iran. At least 17 fuel tanker aircraft left the U.S. headed for the Middle East in the last 24 hours. President Trump did not rule out boots on the ground.

The IRGC now claims the Strait of Hormuz is closed (it had been effectively closed) and threatened any vessels trying to transit. Multiple tankers have been hit both in the Strait and docked at ports, including a U.S. flagged fuel tanker at a port in Bahrain enrolled in the U.S. Navy's Tanker Security Program, a fleet of commercial ships that can supply fuel to the Navy during conflict.

A U.S. State Department spokesperson issued a message on X urging American citizens to leave 14 countries in the region while commercial means remain available. This did not translate into Level 4: Do Not Travel warnings for all of the countries, some of which were already at Level 4. The U.S. embassies in Bahrain and Iraq issued evacuation orders for non-emergency staff and their families.

Iran took another step up the escalation ladder by targeting energy infrastructure in the Gulf, including the Ras Tanura refinery in Saudi Arabia. Qatar suspended LNG production at its North Field, while multiple ports in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, and Oman halted operations.

Further west, Iranian drones impacted the UKs RAF Akrotiri base on the island of Cyprus. The UK confirmed minor damage to the runway. Additional drone threats prompted evacuations at Paphos International Airport (PFO) and the Akrotiri district. The UK and Greece sent military reinforcements.

Iran's primary proxy group, Hezbollah, entered the conflict by launching missiles and drone swarms at Israel's military base near Haifa. Israel responded by launching a large air campaign in southern Lebanon and the southern suburbs of Beirut targeting Hezbollah leadership and assets. Israel issued evacuation orders for more than 50 villages in southern Lebanon. Israel warned that this campaign will last several days.

In Pakistan, thousands of largely Shia, pro‑Iran demonstrators marched on the U.S. Consulate in Karachi, breaching the outer gate and attempting to storm the compound. Security forces (consulate guards and police) used tear gas, rubber bullets, and live fire. Reported fatalities in Karachi range from about 10 to at least 23 killed, with 50–60+ injured. Other protests were reported in Gilgit-Baltistan, Islamabad, and Lahore.

COMPANIES RACE TO REASSURE AND RELOCATE EMPLOYEES CAUGHT IN MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT

“Do not bunker in place. There are options. This could go a lot longer than we think.” 

As multinational companies scrambled to protect employees amid escalating conflict in the Middle East, The Wall Street Journal reported on Global Guardian’s large-scale evacuation and crisis response operations.

As of Sunday afternoon, Global Guardian had conducted 21 evacuation missions moving more than 700 people by ground and air from Israel and the Gulf region, underscoring the importance of proactive contingency planning in dynamic threat environments.

Israel and the United States continued to strike hundreds of targets in Iran with heavy strikes reported across Tehran. Israeli officials claim to have destroyed hundreds of Iranian missiles and around 200 ballistic missile launchers as the U.S. continued to strike Iranian naval targets. President Trump said the bombing would continue "throughout the week or as long as necessary.”  

On the diplomatic front, President Trump told The Atlantic that Iran wants to resume negotiations with the U.S. after the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, "I have agreed to talk, so I will be talking to them.” Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi, told his Omani counterpart in a phone call that Tehran is open to any serious efforts at de-escalation. While these channels are open, it is unclear who in Iran has the authority to make an agreement. Meanwhile, the UAE has closed its embassy in Iran and withdrew its ambassador and all diplomats in response to the regime’s ongoing missile and drone attacks targeting the UAE. 

Overnight, Iranian state media confirmed the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamanei. U.S. President Donald Trump threatened early Sunday morning to hit Iran with unprecedented force after Tehran warned it would step up attacks in retaliation for the killing of its supreme leader. Iranian President Pezeshkian, the head of the judiciary, and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi from the Council of Guardians of the Constitution, will temporarily govern the country. It is still unclear who will replace the Supreme Leader, though it is likely that a successor has been appointed in secret. 

Death tolls are rising across the GCC and Israel with at least three in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), one in Kuwait, and 11 in Israel, following continuous missile/drone strikes in UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Israel. Iran claims to now have struck 27 U.S. bases across the region. While delivering rhetorical support, Iran's regional proxies have yet to fully activate. 

Iran will continue to target key traveler-focused assets in the Gulf region such as luxury hotels, airports, and oil & gas commercial compounds should they choose to escalate.

 Following the launch of Operation Epic Fury by the U.S. and Operation Lion's Roar by Israel, Iran retaliated across the region by launching medium and short-range ballistic missiles and Shahed drones at U.S. bases in Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Bahrain. Most projectiles were intercepted. There were multiple instances of falling debris from intercepted missiles striking buildings, landing on people, and catching buildings on fire. In Bahrain, a high-rise building was struck by a Shahed drone, possibly by accident or due to signal jamming. A similar incident happened in Dubai when the parking/entrance area of the Palm Hotel was hit by a Shahed drone, leading to multiple injuries but no fatalities. These types of attacks will continue across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. 

 President Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed during earlier strikes. This has not been confirmed by Iran, but there has been no visual or audio evidence produced by Iran that he is still alive. Additional reports suggest members of his family were also killed. It is likely that Ali Larijani, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, is now in charge.