During mid-morning hours local time on 28 February 2026, Israel launched pre-emptive strikes against Iran. President Trump then confirmed U.S. involvement in “major combat operations,” which are ongoing. Based on commentary from both Israel and the U.S., this is going to be a sustained military campaign targeting Iranian military and political leadership, military-industrial assets, and wide-ranging military targets—including nuclear sites—across Iran, with the goal of destroying command and control structures, degrading offensive and defensive capabilities, and ultimately bringing about regime change. Multiple U.S. embassies have issued shelter-in-place warnings while most of the region has closed airspace. Airlines have cancelled flights in response. Iran vowed a "crushing response" in retaliation and has targeted military bases in the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar.

• Abide by local guidance regarding shelter-in-place orders.
• If in Israel, remain near bomb shelters and take immediate action at the sound of sirens.
• Be prepared for ongoing major airspace disruptions.

As of 27 February 2026, the potential for U.S. strikes on Iran remains elevated amidst a continued U.S. military buildup in the region, as yet unsuccessful negotiations, and other indicators and warnings suggesting imminent strikes. As such, Global Guardian continues to advise the following:

• Avoid non-essential travel to Israel. Consider leaving Israel while commercial flight options remain available.
• Reconsider travel to Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states.
• Be prepared for major airspace disruptions in the event of conflict.

As of 26 February 2026, the situation in Mexico has stabilized. Late on 24 February, the state government of Jalisco lifted the "Code Red", reopening public transportation, the municipal government, and schools across the state. In Puerto Vallarta, commercial flights resumed in earnest. At the same time, the U.S. Embassy in Mexico lifted its shelter-in-place order but maintained a curfew for government staff in Guadalajara (Jalisco), Puerto Vallarta (Jalisco/Nayarit), Ciudad Guzmán (Jalisco), and Tijuana (Baja California). This curfew was lifted late on 25 February.

The Mexican government has deployed thousands of troops and federal officers to impacted areas to shore up security, dissuade violence, and bring peace of mind to the residents and visitors to those communities. In Quintana Roo, the governor deployed some 10,000 personnel, highlighting the seriousness of maintaining security in tourist areas which are vital to the Mexican economy.

STATE DEPARTMENT LIFTS SHELTER-IN-PLACE FOR AMERICAN TOURISTS IN MEXICO — BUT SECURITY EXPERTS WARN SPRING BREAKERS TO STAY ALERT

"Whenever a top figure in a criminal organization in Mexico is killed or captured, the organization almost never disintegrates. But what does happen is we see a violent restructuring of the top level of figures within that cartel. "

Amid questions about whether cartel-related unrest in Mexico will spread or stabilize, WUSA9 sought analysis from Global Guardian Senior Intelligence Analyst Tomás Michael Carvallo on the risks still unfolding.

Carvallo warned that the cartel’s lack of a clear successor makes a violent internal power struggle likely in the weeks ahead, with restructuring often playing out through armed confrontations across cartel-controlled territory. While emphasizing that tourists are not the intended targets, he urged travelers to closely monitor local developments and State Department alerts, noting how quickly conditions can shift from calm to crisis—and back again.

'THEY'RE FREAKING OUT.' SHOULD TRAVELERS CANCEL THEIR CANCUN TRIPS?

“Because it's so tourist-heavy, the organized crimes tend to leave it alone; they don’t want to poke the bear. But folks are going to have to reconsider the totality of the security landscape in those places.”

As questions mounted about travel to Cancun after cartel violence erupted in Puerto Vallarta, USA TODAY incorporated Global Guardian’s perspective on how travelers should evaluate risk in Mexico’s most visited destination.

Global Guardian's Director of Intelligence Michael Ballard noted that while violence in core tourist zones remains relatively rare, high-profile enforcement actions can shift security dynamics and warrant reassessment. He emphasized that travelers should look beyond headlines, review State Department advisories and consider the broader security landscape when making near-term decisions.

IS IT SAFE TO GO TO MEXICO RIGHT NOW? WHAT TRAVELERS NEED TO KNOW AS CARTEL VIOLENCE AFFECTS TOURIST SPOTS

“People who maybe had a vacation booked to Puerto Vallarta or Cancun or somewhere else in the next 48 hours, we’ll say you might want to reconsider that because we don’t know exactly how this is going to continue to play out. It could get worse, it could get better.”

Cartel violence tied to the killing of CJNG leader “El Mencho” has led to flight cancellations, cruise itinerary changes and government advisories, prompting People to feature Global Guardian’s perspective on near-term travel risk. Global Guardian's Director of Intelligence Michael Ballard noted that while most resort areas have been relatively spared from direct impact, conditions remain fluid and travelers should take a conservative approach as security dynamics continue to evolve.

'DO NOT GO TO MEXICO.' SECURITY EXPERTS, FORMER CIA WARN TRAVELERS.

“And I think we're likely to see similar retaliatory violence come out of those operations in the future. So, I don't think this is a one-and-done situation. We could see this with some frequency in the future.”

As cartel-related violence flared following the death of CJNG leader “El Mencho,” USA TODAY looked to Global Guardian Director of Intelligence Michael Ballard to assess the implications for travel and on-the-ground security conditions.

Ballard explained that while major resort areas and Mexico City have largely avoided direct impact, the broader security environment remains fluid. He advised travelers with imminent plans to reconsider near-term trips to affected areas, emphasized the importance of due diligence and contingency planning, and cautioned that retaliatory violence could follow high-level cartel disruptions.

DC MEN TRAPPED IN PUERTO VALLARTA AS CARTEL VIOLENCE ERUPTS ACROSS MEXICO

"The CJNG has no clear succession plan, making a violent internal power struggle across Mexico highly likely in the days and weeks ahead."

After the killing of CJNG leader “El Mencho” triggered coordinated violence across 22 Mexican states—including fires, roadblocks and airport disruptions—WUSA9 reported on Americans sheltering in place as unrest unfolded, citing Global Guardian, which warned that the cartel’s lack of a clear succession plan increases the likelihood of internal power struggles and additional retaliatory violence in the near term. The warning reinforces the need for travelers to closely monitor developments and prepare contingency plans as conditions evolve.

IS IT SAFE TO TRAVEL TO MEXICO RIGHT NOW?

"But as we have seen, this can all go sideways quickly, so you want to be paying attention to what is going on before departing."

Following cartel-related unrest in Mexico after the killing of CJNG leader “El Mencho,” The New York Times turned to Global Guardian’s Director of Intelligence Michael Ballard for expert insight on evolving travel risk conditions.

Ballard notes that while major destinations such as Cabo San Lucas and Mexico City remain viable for travel, security dynamics can shift rapidly after high-level cartel enforcement actions. He emphasizes the importance of real-time monitoring, reviewing U.S. State Department advisories, and utilizing secure transportation—reinforcing that informed, proactive decision-making is essential in dynamic threat environments.

US PRESSURE FACTORED IN MEXICO'S DECISION TO TAKE OUT JALISCO CARTEL BOSS, EXPERTS SAY

“The risk in that is that you are not really moving the needle. (If) El Mencho is replaced quickly and you don’t see a huge fracture, a month from now nothing is really changed and we are back to the same old, same old,” he said. “It becomes a tactical success but a strategic failure. That is what we risk.”

Following the killing of Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) leader Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes, Global Guardian CEO Dale Buckner spoke with Border Report about what the operation means for cartel stability and U.S.–Mexico security cooperation.

In the interview, Buckner explains that while eliminating a high-profile cartel leader may represent a tactical win, it does not dismantle the infrastructure behind narcotics production and trafficking. He also discusses the role of U.S. intelligence support, the mounting pressure on Mexico to continue targeting cartel leadership, and the potential downstream effects such operations could have on regional stability and cross-border supply chains.

Click below to watch the interview, which runs from approximately minute 5:00 to minute 25:00.