"Should strategic gains not be secured by Ukraine soon, time will be her greatest enemy as the probability of this turning into a frozen conflict increases."
In USA Today, Global Guardian Senior Intelligence Analyst Zev Faintuch discusses the current state of the Russia-Ukraine war and why Ukraine's strategic gains are important to overall support from its allies.
“When [countries] see Ukraine moving forward, that strengthens their righteous position on the world stage to say, ‘You need to back us’. If the Russians were blowing through Ukraine, a lot of midrange countries might say, ‘We’re going to hedge our bets on this.’”
In a recent interview with Al Jazeera, Global Guardian Vice President of Client Risk Management Seth Krummrich sheds light on Ukraine's progress on the southern front and the influence it has on President Zelenskyy's plea for increased support from Western nations.
"To achieve their goals, Ukraine needs to keep steady pressure and inflict losses on Russia. They don't need a breakthrough victory tomorrow."
In Newsweek, Global Guardian Vice President of Client Risk Management Seth Krummrich discusses the latest Ukranian counteroffensive in western Zaporizhzhia and how it impacts Putin and Russian forces. Krummrich also weighs in on Kyiv's strategy as winter approaches.
“The role of executive protection has become more substantial. We are seeing a lot of clients asking for that....People are moving to using private residential guards and for them to be 24/7 in their homes."
In Family Wealth Report, Global Guardian SVP of Strategic Partnerships Michael Coleman weighs in on multiple trends impacting the safety and security of high-net-worth individuals and their businesses—including data privacy, generative AI, crime in certain regions, and relations with China—and how Global Guardian is holistically supporting its clients.
On 19 September, Azerbaijan began shelling ethnic Armenian positions in the contested Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) region around 06:30 EDT. Azerbaijan announced the offensive following the alleged deaths of six people in Azerbaijani-controlled territory due to Armenian landmines. Azerbaijan has been preparing for this operation for several weeks, having been resupplied by its patrons Turkey and Israel and conducting high-level meetings with regional players. The fighting is mostly limited to Nagorno-Karabakh and has not fully spread to the internationally recognized borders of Armenia and Azerbaijan.
In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travels. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.
The final weekend in August saw a significant escalation in the Tierra Caliente region of Michoacan state. The violent clashes, including shootouts, vehicle blockades, and fire-bombings, started in the municipality of Buenavista before spreading to Apatzingan and Uruapan. Two OXXO convenience stores were targeted with Molotov cocktails. As a result of the unrest, at least two suspects were killed, five police officers injured, and six more suspects arrested.
Global Guardian recommends low-profile, secure transportation for all travel within Mexico. At this time, we also advise against non-essential travel to Michoacan.
The violent unrest in Michoacan is the result of ongoing conflict between the Cartel Jalisco New Generation (CJNG) and Carteles Unidos, a loosely coordinated group of cartels operating in the Tierra Caliente region that includes La Familia, Templarios, and Los Miguelados, a former CJNG ally.
Los Viagras, once the strongest member of the Carteles Unidos, reportedly switched sides and formed an alliance with the CJNG in Michoacan. This came as a surprise, as Los Viagras were considered bitter enemies of the CJNG. The shifting alliances within the cartel landscape will have violent ramifications in Michoacan and elsewhere, including Guerrero, Jalisco, and Guanajuato.
Public transportation was suspended in Apatzingan amid the violence and remaining convenience stores were closed. After the weekend of violence, Mexico deployed 1,200 members of its National Guard to help enforce security in the areas of Uruapan and Apatzingan. This may lead to a temporary reduction in violence, but further conflict and unrest is likely in the medium and long term.
Michoacan, already one of the most violent states in Mexico, could see a full-blown cartel war break out as the Viagras-CJNG alliance strengthens. The conflict centers on control of the Lazaro Cardenas port, the Tierra Caliente region, and the routes connecting these areas to the center of the country. Cartel interests in the region include methamphetamine, other synthetic drug laboratories, the extortion of agricultural producers — especially avocado and lime growers — and the illegal exploitation of mines. Additionally, chemical precursors and synthetic drugs — including fentanyl and its precursors — arrive through the port of Lazaro Cardenas. Minerals, which are often used as payment for chemicals, also leave through the port headed for China amongst other destinations.
Key TakeawaysClients operating in or traveling to these “hot spots” within Mexico should maintain vigilance while on the ground and anticipate the ongoing risks to travelers, logistics, and operations. Shifting cartel alliances, emerging criminal entities, and new tactics all add to the risk matrix in Mexico. Pre-travel intelligence is a key part of both trip and contingency planning. |
On 30 August, military officers in Gabon seized power and placed President Ali Bongo under house arrest. Officers of the Presidential Guard unit announced the annulation of the previous week’s election results, closed the borders, and suspended all state institutions. Gabon’s is the eighth coup in Central and West Africa since 2020. The situation in Gabon is relatively stable, but it represents another point in a destabilizing pattern of democratic backsliding on the continent.
The putschists — the Committee of Transition and the Restoration of Institutions (CTRI) — have begun the process of solidifying power. Gabon’s international borders and flights reopened on 02 September, though a nationwide curfew is in effect:
The CTRI unanimously elected General Brice Oligui Nguema — former head of the Presidential Guard — as President of the transitionary regime. The CTRI also appointed leading opposition figure Raymond Ndong Sima as prime minister. Ali Bongo’s son, Noureddin Bongo Valentin, and others associated with the Bongo regime have been arrested for corruption and treason while Jean-Remy Yama, a prominent trade union leader, has been released from prison. Prime Minister Sima announced a 24-month timeline for the restoration of democratic rule, citing the need to undo nearly 60 years of dynastic rule and cronyism.
Global Guardian recommends that those in-country carry proper identification, any relevant travel documents, and a valid Gabonese visa at all times.
Ali Bongo’s father, Omar Bongo, took power in 1967 and ruled until his death in 2009. Omar Bongo was a staunch ally of France and used his reign to enrich himself, his family, and his supporters. Ali Bongo continued his father’s close relationship with France, and domestic patronage system. Gabon is a major commodities exporter and features one of the highest per capita GDPs in Africa. However, most Gabonese live in poverty, and the country has a nearly 40% youth unemployment rate. This disparity explains the population’s largely ambivalent reaction to Bongo’s deposition.
While the coup has enjoyed some popular demonstrations of support, enthusiasm is likely being dampened by Oligui’s own association with the kleptocratic Bongo dynasty and French interests.
Ali Bongo’s election in 2009, as well as his reelections in 2016 and 2023, were marred by irregularities and accusations of fraud. Bongo’s 2016 reelection saw widespread violent demonstrations, and in 2019 officers unsuccessfully attempted to stage a coup. It is likely, given Bongo’s growing unpopularity and the population’s frustration with continued economic inequality, that this coup was a preventative measure by elements of Bongo’s inner circle to retain control of the country’s lucrative natural resources.
If this is the case, Gabon’s coup may have more in common with the coups of the Sahel than meets the eye. Both Generals Tchiani in Niger, and Hemedti in Sudan were facing dismissal — and thus discontinued access to rent — immediately before they launched their coups. This assessment is supported by the absence in Gabon of the anti-French rhetoric presented in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Oligui’s appointment of a former Eramet executive (Eramet is a major French mining concern which has indefinitely suspended Gabonese operations) as minister of petrol, indicates that Oligui and the CTRI hope to maintain economic ties to France. The CTRI has also stated that Bongo is free to travel abroad for medical treatment, likely a move to curry favor with the international community, particularly the African Union (AU), whose leadership is increasingly coming to fear for their own personal safety in light of the wave of recent coups.
Key TakeawaysGabon is unlikely to destabilize in the near term. However, a continuation of corrupt practices, and a failure to adhere to a reasonable democratic transition timeline, will likely incur destabilizing popular backlash in the medium to long term. Gabon’s coup also increases the likelihood of similar power seizures in the region as its success and the muted international response contribute to the normalization of coups in Africa. |
Late on 08 September, a magnitude 6.8 earthquake struck about 50 miles south-west of the historic city of Marrakech. The earthquake led to dozens of building collapses, road blockages, and power and water outages. It was felt as far away as Spain. Rescue operations are underway in the areas surrounding the epicenter, including in the Medina of Marrakech, where historic buildings have collapsed. Global Guardian is currently conducting emergency evacuations of clients, including a group of travelers stranded at a resort damaged by the earthquake. It is the most powerful earthquake recorded in Morocco in a century.
CEO Dale Buckner joins The Trey Gowdy Podcast on Fox News Radio to discuss crisis management in the wake of the Maui wildfires and how Global Guardian works with corporations to ensure they are planning for emergencies, developing and implementing business continuity plans, and providing duty of care to their people on the ground.
Dale also discusses how he has built a team of professionals dedicated to stepping in when it is needed most. Click below to listen to the full 50-minute episode.
Global Guardian is Now Available in the SAP® Concur® App Center Delivering Corporate Risk and Enterprise Security Solutions
(McLean, VA) August 22, 2023 – Global Guardian, the leading international duty of care firm for Fortune 1000 companies, high-net-worth individuals, and world-renowned organizations, today launched an integration with Concur Travel. This feature will offer enterprises a seamless way to fulfill their duty of care needs through a comprehensive suite of travel, medical, and security-related solutions.
In the aftermath of the devasting wildfires in Maui, CEO Dale Buckner discusses Global Guardian’s response on the ground, assisting clients with evacuation and supply delivery—and offers insight for business leaders planning for and facing crises of varying degree. Click below to listen to the Kennedy Saves the World podcast episode.
