SPECIAL REPORT

In the morning hours of 27 September, Hurricane Ian strengthened into a Category 3 storm before making landfall near the Cuban town of La Coloma in Pinar Del Rio province, located approximately 150 km (100 mi) southwest of Havana. According to current estimates, Ian is expected to reach the central Florida west coast late Wednesday night or Thursday morning as a Category 3 storm or higher. The Tampa Bay area can expect a storm surge of 6-10 feet and Jacksonville and other areas along the St. Johns River may also be at risk for a severe storm surge.

The hurricane is expected to produce the following amounts of rainfall:

• 100-150 mm in the U.S. Florida Keys and South Florida
• 300-405 mm in central-western Florida (with isolated totals of 610 mm)
• 75-200 mm in northeastern Florida
• 130-250 mm in the rest of the central Florida Peninsula

Prolonged rainfall will lead to flooding in some areas, and an ongoing risk of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes will be a concern from Florida to Georgia and the Carolinas through the weekend.

The two factors to watch going forward will be the southward dip in the jet stream across the United States, which could pull the storm northward and into the coast, and to what extent the storm slows upon landfall when reaching Florida. The slower the storm is traveling, the higher the risk of intense rainfall and storm surge.

• On 27 September, Tampa International Airport (KTPA/TRP) will suspend operations starting at 17:00 (local time). St. Pete-Clearwater International Airport (KPIE/PIE) will completely shut down as of 13:00 (local time).
• Mandatory evacuation orders have been issued for communities near Tampa Bay, including Charlotte, Hillsborough, Lee, Levy, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, and Sarasota counties.

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES

• To view Global Guardian’s 2022 Hurricane Preparedness Guide, click here.
• For those currently in Florida, we also advise consulting the Florida Division of Emergency Management here.

Wall Street Banks Prep for Grim China Scenarios Over Taiwan

“Russia has proven to be a template of what you don’t want to happen.” 

In a recent Bloomberg article, Global Guardian CEO Dale Buckner discussed how global financial firms are urgently preparing contingency plans to minimize losses in the event of a conflict between China and Taiwan—and how Global Guardian is assisting clients in this industry to reduce their exposure.

Fires in California incur significant financial and human costs that are expected to rise as a changing climate renders the state hotter and drier for longer.

Major fire incidents have steadily increased across the entirety of California over the past few decades. The risk of fire has extended to the whole state, and fire season is now year-long. The destruction of housing, displacement of residents, disruption to businesses, frequent power blackouts, degradation of air quality, and drain on public resources caused by fires, heatwaves, and droughts have a host of associated environmental and economic consequences that will continue to threaten lives and livelihoods in California for years to come. The risks from wildfires, heatwaves, and droughts underscore the need to properly prepare for these hazards.

Thus far in 2022 wildfires in California have killed nine people, displaced more than 6000 others, consumed more than 360,000 acres of land, and destroyed more than 700 structures. September and October are historically the most dangerous months for wildfires, and there are currently around a dozen major fires burning across the state.

The number of acres burned in wildfires varies year to year but is generally trending upwards.

The growing intensity and extent of wildfires is driven by climate change. Average summer temperatures in California have risen by approximately 3 degrees F (1.8℃) since 1896, with more than half of that increase occurring since the early 1970s. As temperatures rise, California’s environment becomes drier and hotter. This leads to more wildfires but also to heatwaves and droughts. Wildfires are made both more likely and more difficult to fight by the increased temperatures caused by heatwaves and reduced availability of water caused by droughts. These weather phenomena feed into each other in a number of ways with serious environmental, health, and economic impacts.

Heatwaves have grown increasingly deadly in their own right. In 2021, extreme heat killed more Americans than any other weather-related disaster. In Europe, heatwaves are being given designated names, similar to hurricanes, in an effort to raise awareness among the public of their lethal potential. The below graphs from NASA highlight the rising number, duration, and intensity of heatwaves in California.

Preparation

Have a Plan

• If you anticipate needing assistance during a disaster, talk to family, friends and others who will be part of your personal support network.
• Write down and share each aspect of your emergency plan with everyone in your support network.
• Make sure everyone knows how you plan to evacuate your home or workplace and where you will go in case of a disaster.
• Make sure that someone in your local network has an extra key to your home and knows where you keep your emergency supplies.
• Teach those who will help you how to use any lifesaving equipment and administer medicine in case of an emergency.
• Practice your plan, and update it as needed.

Build a Go Bag

• Non-perishable foods
• Medicines and first aid supplies
• Potable water
• Flashlights and batteries
• Mask and/or respirator
• Satellite phone

'Act of Desperation': Putin's Partial Mobilization of Russia Could Be His Undoing

"They're not going to fight for the guy to the right or left. They're not going to have that moral conviction that what they're doing is right and matters." 

Drawing on insight and intelligence from Global Guardian’s on-the-ground teams in Ukraine and his special forces background, CEO Dale Buckner sat down with Newsweek to discuss the potential challenges of Russia’s partial mobilization and what it means for Ukraine at this point in the war.

Strategic UPDATE 

The war in Ukraine has effectively entered its third phase as Russia is now implicitly acknowledging its desperation. Ukraine has managed to seize the momentum of the war and with winter rapidly approaching, the Kremlin has shifted course to solidify its gains before it is too late. With the proposed accessions of the Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine, President Putin will now have the internal legitimacy to escalate the war.

• On 21 September, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the partial mobilization of up to 300,000 citizens with specialist training and military experience. The mobilization announcement comes on the heels of a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive in north-eastern Ukraine that now threatens Russian control of territory it occupies in the Donbas—whose liberation has been Russia’s main stated objective since late March.

• On 20 September, Russian-appointed officials in occupied Kherson, Zaporizhia, Luhansk, and Donetsk oblasts announced referenda on accession to the Russian Federation which will be held 23-27 September.

• Also on 20 September, Russia’s State Duma unanimously passed an amendment to the criminal code, establishing penalties for “crimes against military service” if they are committed during mobilization, during wartime, under martial law, or under conditions of any armed conflict. The law increases penalties for desertion, insubordination, and voluntary surrender.

• On 21 September, anecdotal reports circulated that Russian railways and Aeroflot halted ticket sales to men ages 18-65, a claim that the companies have since denied. Border crossings are reportedly closed to males aged 18-45.

ANALYSIS

• The annexation announcement is meant to dissuade Kyiv from continuing its counteroffensive and convince its Western benefactors that continued financial and material support for Ukraine can lead to a more severe Russian response, as Russia will now see Ukraine as attacking its territory. Putin’s threat to use “all means” is a tacit threat to use nuclear weapons, as Russian nuclear doctrine provides for the use of a first strike in defense of the homeland.

• The mobilization and referenda together signal a shift in Russian domestic framing for the war and an unprecedented acknowledgment of force insufficiency. Annexation will force Russia to deploy conscripted forces already integrated into the military to eastern Ukrainian territory quickly to rebuff the current Ukrainian counteroffensive.

• By enacting a partial rather than full mobilization and continuing to refer to the war as a special military operation, Putin is balancing pressure from hardliners calling for a more robust commitment to the war effort with the potential unrest that a full mobilization—especially with the conscription of the urban elite—and declaration of war could incite.

LOOKING AHEAD

• Russia does not have the capacity to quickly mobilize 300,000 troops. The process will take months if not a year to accomplish. The Kremlin will directly increase force generation through continued voluntary self-mobilization and an expansion of its legal authority to deploy Russian conscripts already with the force to fight in Ukraine. Russia should be able to quickly send in several thousand troops to the frontlines; however, their training levels and morale will be even lower than the current lot. Even in the short-run, it is unlikely they will be able to prove effective on the battlefield.
• The annexation of Russian-controlled territory is irreconcilable with Kyiv's new aim to regain all of Ukraine's territory. This will make the prospects of any negotiated settlement even dimmer.
• Understanding the desperate situation, Putin will now be more inclined to "win at all costs." We have already seen a recent increase in Russia's willingness to target Ukrainian civilian infrastructure (electricity, water, and communications), we can now expect more.

Analysis: Ukraine blindsides Russia with northeastern thrust at supply hub

"This is the first real validation of Ukraine’s ability to counterattack—but with limited success. It does change the path of the conflict moving forward. The Russians now have an expanding challenge of defending the terrain they have taken."

Leveraging intelligence and insight from Global Guardian’s on-the-ground response teams, CEO Dale Buckner discusses Ukraine’s recent counteroffensive in the northeastern Kharkiv region and how it impacts the path of the conflict moving forward in a recent Reuters article.

IRAQ | ISRAEL | UKRAINE | MEXICO

In Global Guardian's new monthly Risk Barometer, our team of intelligence analysts will brief on current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travels. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates, including this monthly report.

Iraq’s Political Crisis Boils Over

On 29 August, civil unrest erupted across Iraq following the retirement announcement of Shi’a spiritual and political leader, Muqtada al-Sadr. Political tensions between al-Sadr's supporters and supporters of the pro-Iran Shiite Coordination Framework were already sky-high over efforts to break through the political deadlock that emerged from the October 2021 elections.

Violent protests were reported in Baghdad's Green Zone, Tahrir Square, Kadhimiya and Jadriyah areas, and in the cities of Diwaniyah, Nasiriyah, Basrah, Baqubah, Kut, and Samawah. Over 35 people were killed and at least 700 were injured in clashes between al-Sadr supporters and his Seraya Al-Islam armed militia, Iran-aligned paramilitary groups, and Iraqi security forces. Mortar and rocket-propelled grenade (RPG) fire was reported overnight, as well as at least four rocket explosions. During the fighting, al-Sadr’s Seraya Al-Islam destroyed Iran-affiliated Asa'ib Ahl Al Haq's headquarters in Diwaniyah and Kata'ib Hezbollah’s headquarters in Baghdad and Basra—sending a strong message to Iran.

Al-Sadr's supporters stormed Baghdad's International Zone (Green Zone) on 30 July and escalated their occupation of the area starting on 23 August in an attempt to pressure the country's judiciary to dissolve parliament, which would, in turn, trigger fresh elections.

While al-Sadr’s followers withdrew from their protest sites on 30 August, armed individuals assassinated Saraya al-Salam’s leader, Hussein Fouad, in Basra in the evening of 31 August. Armed clashes then broke out overnight between Saraya al-Salam and Asaib Ahl al-Haq fighters in the same area.

Israel-Gaza Flair Up Lowers Conflict Risk in the Short-Term

Following the 66-hour period of conflict between Israel and the Iranian-backed Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) militant group, the prospects of renewed violence have diminished in the immediate term. On 05 August 2022 the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) launched a preemptive strike on PIJ, eliminating Tayseer Jabari, PIJ’s commander of northern Gaza, as well as several terror squads allegedly en route to conducting an attack. In response, PIJ began to launch rockets into Israel and the Israeli Air Force (IAF) continued to attack PIJ positions in Gaza.

During the three days of the conflict, 1,175 rockets were launched at Israel and the IAF hit 170 PIJ targets across the Gaza Strip. Most of the rocket barrages targeted the Israeli communities near the Gaza Strip and at cities in Israel’s south, though some targeted the greater Tel Aviv and Jerusalem areas. Over 96% of the rockets destined for Israeli population centers were intercepted by the Iron Dome missile defense system. Several rockets did manage to evade Iron Dome and land in populated areas and the majority of PIJ’s rocket arsenal is still intact. The Egyptian-mediated cease-fire went into effect on 07 August and continues to hold.

The IDF launched its campaign to prevent an imminent PIJ attack in retaliation for Israel’s arrest of Bassem Saadi, the PIJ’s West Bank leader. PIJ was involved in the terror wave in Israel during March and April which killed over a dozen Israelis. Since then, the IDF have cracked down on PIJ cells in the West Bank, ultimately leading to the capture of Saadi.

Travel Impact

In the lead up to the conflict, the IDF shut down roads and train lines that were vulnerable to fire from Gaza. Bomb shelters were opened in major cities and gathering restrictions were implemented in Israel’s communities near the Gaza Strip. Over 1.5 million people were instructed into bomb shelters. Several rockets fired in the direction of Tel Aviv Ben Gurion Airport (TLV) forced the rerouting of outgoing flight traffic and caused several flights in the air to divert on 07 August.

Analysis

The real story of this conflagration is that Hamas—the Islamist militant group who controls the Gaza Strip—did not enter the conflict and that mediation ended this round of fighting promptly.

Hamas’ Constraints – Burdened with the obligation of ruling Gaza, Hamas is under a triad of constraints:

• Financial: The Gaza Strip is undergoing a financial crisis with liquidity in the region drying up and a major rise in costs of food and fuel. Hamas is reliant on funding from Qatar which would be jeopardized should it have entered the conflict.
• Military: Hamas understands that it would lose members of its upper leadership in the initial onslaught should it enter the conflict.
• Political: Hamas is concerned with maintaining its grip on power. Following a tax hike in July, Gazans took to the streets to protest, a rare occurrence that highlights displeasure with the economic circumstances. Moreover, Hamas stood to gain very little politically, while it would have been held responsible for the casualties and destruction that would ensue from another war with Israel only one year after the previous iteration.

Better Diplomacy – The two most prominent interlocutors in Israel-Gaza affairs, Egypt and Qatar, worked together to rapidly and effectively mediate a ceasefire. Until a recent rapprochement between Qatar and the Arab Quartet in January 2021, Cairo and Doha found themselves on opposite sides of regional disputes and competed over brokering ceasefires in previous rounds of fighting. Going forward, this new entente has the leverage to end conflicts between Israel and Gazan militants faster and possibly even prevent minor conflagrations from turning into wider conflicts.  

Advice

The events of early August underscore the need to keep up to date with the geopolitical situation in Israel prior to travel. Be it through receiving briefings from professional analysts to personally tracking the news in the weeks prior to travel, situational awareness is paramount when traveling to volatile security environments. Global Guardian also recommends that all travelers to Israel download rocket warning apps such as the Israeli Defense Forces Home Front Command app (iOS, Android) or the Red Alert: Israel app (iOS, Android) on their smartphones to provide real-time information on threats.  

Concern Rises Over Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant amid start of Ukrainian Counter-Offensive in Kherson

After more than six months of conflict in Ukraine following Russia’s invasion, fighting is now largely concentrated in the south and eastern oblasts of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk. A current area of significant concern is the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), located along the Dnipro River in northwestern Zaporizhzhia oblast. The power plant has been under Russian control since March. Fears are increasing over the possibility that military strikes could critically damage the plant, potentially leading to a nuclear disaster, which could spread deadly radioactive material across Europe. Shelling in the area, blamed on both Ukraine and Russia, has damaged infrastructure and sparked fires dangerously close to the NPP.

The recent Ukrainian counter-offensive that began in neighboring Kherson oblast has also raised the stakes for the NPP. Both Ukrainian and Russian forces are using artillery in their efforts to advance on, and repel, opposing forces, risking damage to the NPP. Additionally, there is concern that retreating Russian forces could sabotage the NPP in some way, in order to halt the advance of Ukrainian forces.

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, and a team of inspectors arrived at the NPP on 01 September to assess the situation. They are leaving a team of two people on-site permanently to monitor operations at the plant. Additionally, the IAEA has called for the establishment of a nuclear safety protection zone around the power plant. 

Recent Developments

• 06 September: Russian officials say work is underway to restore the fifth power unit at the power plant following reported Ukrainian shelling overnight.
• 05 September: Zaporizhzhia plant was disconnected from Ukraine's power grid after Russian shelling.
• 02 September: Lithuania called on the United Nations (UN) to send a permanent delegation to the Zaporizhzhia NPP.
• 28 August: Russia claims pipeline damage in Ukrainian shelling near NPP buildings that store fuel and radioactive waste and near the pumping station cooling reactor.
• 26 August: Russia accused Ukrainian forces of firing six shells near the power plant; however, no damage was reported. Radiation levels are still considered normal at the NPP.
• 26 August: Ukraine’s Energoatom says the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant has been reconnected to the country’s electrical grid after being cut off for the first time earlier in the week.
  • A fire at a nearby coal-fired station that damaged high-voltage lines connecting the nuclear power plant to the power grid likely knocked the power grid offline.

Violence Across Mexico Highlights Risks of Travel

The month of August saw a significant increase in cartel-related violence across multiple areas of Mexico, including in Tijuana, Ciudad Juarez, Guanajuato, and Guadalajara. The violent clashes, including shootouts, vehicle blockades, fires, and car-jackings followed the arrest of a CJNG leader in Guadalajara and gang clashes inside a prison in Ciudad Juarez. This uptick underscores the omnipresent risk of violence in Mexico, and the need for low-profile, secure transportation for travel within the country.

Despite the recent spate of violence, intentional homicides fell just over 9 percent in the first half of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, from 16,948 murders to 15,400 murders. While the homicide rate remains high in Mexico, total homicides fell slightly in 2021 (33,315) from record levels of violence in 2020 (34,554) and 2019 (34,690).

Cartel Jalisco Nuevo Generacion (CJNG)

The CJNG, based out of Jalisco, is responsible for much of the uptick in violence over the last several years. It controls or fights for territory in Guanajuato, Michoacan, Baja California, Mexico, Jalisco, Chihuahua, and Guerrero, among other locations across the country. The above-mentioned seven states accounted for over half of the national total of homicides in the first six months of the year. The CJNG engages in drug trafficking, kidnapping, extortion (particularly of avocado & lime farmers), oil pipeline tapping, and other criminal activities.

Recent Incidents

• 09-10 August: Overnight violence erupted in Guadalajara and Guanajuato after the arrest of high-ranking CJNG member "El Doble R" on 09 August. Cartel members clashed with security forces, set fire to at least 25 OXXO convenience stores, and set several vehicles ablaze to prevent the passage of security forces. At least three people were killed, 19 vehicles destroyed, and 11 suspects arrested.
• 11 August: At least 10 people were killed in Ciudad Juárez after suspected cartel members attacked multiple fast-food restaurants and convenience stores. The attacks were linked to deadly gang clashes that occurred at a Ciudad Juárez prison (Cereso No. 3) earlier in the day.
• 12-13 August: Overnight cartel violence broke out across northern Baja California, including in Tijuana, Mexicali, Ensenada, and Rosarito. Multiple vehicles, including buses and taxis, were car-jacked and set ablaze, forming burning blockades. Multiple convenience stores were targeted with fire as well in an effort to cause chaos and divert emergency services. It is believed that CJNG members carried out the blockades in response to the arrest of "El Doble R" in Guadalajara several days before. At least 17 people were arrested in connection with the burning blockades.
• 14 August: At least seven people were injured after gunmen opened fire on the Botanero Veintiuno bar in Manzanillo, Colima.
• 16 August: At least four police officers were kidnapped, and two police vehicles were set on fire when gunmen attacked a police station in Moctezuma, San Luis Potosí. The police officers were later found unharmed.
• 17 August: At least three people were killed, and another was wounded following a firefight between suspected cartel gunmen and security forces near El Huizache, San Luis Potosí.
• 27-28 August: Two people were killed and more injured after armed groups clashed in Zacatecas, lighting at least eight vehicles on fire and lining roads with sharp objects to deter police.

SITUATION UPDATE 

On 29 August, civil unrest erupted across Iraq following the retirement announcement of Shi’a spiritual and political leader, Muqtada al-Sadr. Political tensions between al-Sadr's supporters and supporters of the pro-Iran Shiite Coordination Framework were already sky-high over efforts to break through the political deadlock that emerged from the October 2021 elections. Following overnight clashes, the current situation has begun to stabilize though fighting could reignite at any point in this highly volatile political moment.

Al-Sadr's supporters stormed Baghdad's International Zone (Green Zone) on 30 July and escalated their occupation of the area starting on 23 August in an attempt to pressure the country's judiciary to dissolve parliament, which would, in turn, trigger fresh elections.

Violent protests were reported in Baghdad's Green Zone, Tahrir Square, Kadhimiya and Jadriyah area, and in the cities of Diwaniyah, Nasiriyah, Basrah, Baqubah, Kut, and Samawah. Over 35 people were killed and at least 700 were injured in clashes between al-Sadr supporters and his Seraya Al-Islam armed militia, Iran-aligned paramilitary groups, and Iraqi security forces. Mortar and rocket-propelled grenade (RPG) fire was reported overnight, as well as at least four rocket explosions. During the fighting, al-Sadr’s Seraya Al-Islam destroyed Iran-affiliated Asa'ib Ahl Al Haq's headquarters in Diwaniyah and Kata'ib Hezbollah’s headquarters in Baghdad and Basra—sending a strong message to Iran.

Impact

• A nationwide curfew was put into effect at 19:00 local time (but has since been lifted)
• Temporary closure of the Iran-Iraq border
• Evacuation of the Embassy of the Netherlands in the Green Zone
• Temporary blockade of roads to three oil fields and Basrah International Airport (BSR)
• The US Embassy C-RAM defense systems were activated in the Green Zone, with at least two rockets being intercepted

Current Situation

Today, in an afternoon speech, al-Sadr condemned the violence and urged his followers to withdraw from the Green Zone within 60 minutes. Early reports indicate that the Sadrists have started withdrawing from the Green Zone and other sites of protest following Sadr's ultimatum. Iraqi Joint Operations Command also ended the curfew in Iraq.

Looking Forward

While the security situation in Iraq has temporarily stabilized, the political environment is still highly volatile, with the potential to erupt again. With tens of thousands of politically opposed armed militiamen harboring deep grievances, further and more intense violence cannot be ruled out.

Global Guardian will be monitoring Iraq's political developments, primarily announcements and events surrounding Muqtada al-Sadr. In addition, Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court is also expected to decide on whether or not parliament can be dissolved, and if new elections can be held—the main drivers of the recent political crisis and associated unrest.

Six months into the Russia-Ukraine war, the entire world is losing. A look at where we go from here.

"The definition of success for Ukraine is an end to the war, the redrawing of its borders, and a return to a peace-time economy with the chance of becoming a NATO member in the future.”

In a recent front-page article in USA Today, CEO Dale Buckner discusses current conditions and on-the-ground realities six months into the Russia-Ukraine war, drawing on insight and intelligence from Global Guardian’s local Ukrainian teams responsible for evacuating thousands of people since the start of the invasion.

The Taiwan Risk: What Companies Are Doing Right Now

“In the short term, over the next 12 to 24 months, there is a good calculus for nothing happening. But if you are an investor and only looking at the next 18 to 24 months, you aren’t a good investor.”

In a recent article for Barron’s, CEO Dale Buckner discusses why global companies should be assessing their risk in Taiwan and China with regards to their investments, infrastructure, supply chain, and employees—and how Global Guardian is assisting some of these companies with the development of contingency plans.