Moscow and Kyiv are seriously discussing a ceasefire as part of a wider deal to end the conflict. Russia now claims that it will begin to draw down its forces from the Kyiv area, which comes after the Russian Ministry of Defense declared that the first phase of the invasion is complete and that its objective is now to "liberate" the Donbas. While there is now a more credible peace process and a path toward an agreed settlement, Russia will use this time to regroup (reorganize and resupply) and use the threat of force (as it has from April 2021) to maintain bargaining leverage over Kyiv, especially now that the West has already exhausted its financial leverage. 

Diplomatic Progress

• According to a report, Russia is willing to drop its initial demands of  “de-nazifying” and “demilitarizing” Ukraine. The report also mentioned that Russia is willing to let Ukraine join the European Union, so long as it provides constitutional assurances that it will not join NATO or host NATO troops in the future. In return for committing not to join NATO, Ukraine's security would be guaranteed by other international powers. 
• Over the last 48 hours, there has been a marked change of tone from Russian state-affiliated media outlets, indicating that the Kremlin may actually be serious about changing its objectives.
• Over the weekend, President Zelensky told independent Russian media outlets that Ukraine is pushing for security guarantees and ready to codify Ukraine's neutrality and non-nuclear status while signaling that he was open to negotiating the “complex question of Donbas.”
• So far, the major sticking point in negotiations has been the future of Crimea, the southern peninsula that Russia seized in 2014 and annexed into Russia. 

Tactical Update

• The past 72 hours have seen Ukrainian forces continue to conduct localized counterattacks in the Kyiv area, Sumy Oblast, and around Kharkiv & Izium. Ukraine’s counterattacks have come as major Russian offensives have mostly stalled, with Russian troops largely regrouping and trying to consolidate territory taken in the opening weeks of the invasion.
• Ukrainian forces recaptured the Kyiv suburb of Irpin on March 28. Ukrainian forces will likely take advantage of ongoing Russian force rotations and drawdowns to retake further territory northwest of Kyiv.
• According to the Ukrainian General Staff, a battalion tactical group (BTG) of the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army withdrew from Ukraine, marking the first major Russian unit to leave the theatre of operations. 
• Russian forces continue to advance block-by-block in central Mariupol. 

Transportation

• On 28 March, Russian officials announced plans to bar entry into Russia for nationals of countries who have leveled sanctions on Russia. These countries include EU member states, the UK, Canada, the U.S., Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, Japan, and others. The exact details and implementation date were not provided.
• Finnish authorities halted Allegro train services between St. Petersburg and Helsinki. Allegro was the only rail service connecting Russia with the EU.

In response to the war, Americans flee Russia in droves

"Here's the gritty reality. In all of these evacuations, we've typically had two, no more than four days of warning to tell our clients, 'You're leaving. This is the airport. This is your aircraft. Here's your timeline. Here's your destination.'" 

In a recent NPR interview, CEO Dale Buckner weighs in on Global Guardian's evacuations efforts of clients and their American, European, and Russian employees in Russia, as well as safeguarding the physical assets and proprietary information left behind.

A Month into The War, This Virginia-Based Firm Is Spiriting People Out of The Ugliness in Ukraine

“This is the wake-up call for multinationals. Just because you have insurance doesn’t mean you’re prepared for crises in a more complicated world.”

In this article, Eric Tegler from Forbes talks to CEO Dale Buckner about Global Guardian's ongoing evacuation efforts of people and physical assets in Ukraine one month into the war and the calculations that go into each mission. Dale also discusses how and why Global Guardian was founded—and how the firm fills the gaps of other duty of care and insurance providers with local teams and assets ready to respond in minutes and hours all around the world.

NATO and the U.S. warned Russia against turning to chemical or nuclear weapons as Russian forces continue to be pushed back around Kyiv. In the south, Russian forces have entered central Mariupol; local Ukrainian political leaders have already left the city to regroup. The fall of Mariupol is likely only a few days away. 

NATO's Vague Red Line 

• At the NATO summit in Brussels on 24 March, President Biden cautioned that NATO would respond proportionately to Russian chemical weapons use, later qualifying the red line by stating that "the nature of the response would depend on the nature of the use.”
• Biden’s comment is the first to suggest a clear path to conflict between Russia and NATO, amid concerns that Russia may turn to weapons of mass destruction to "escalate to de-escalate" now that it is becoming clear that enveloping Kyiv will not be possible.
• The issue of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) defense was brought to the fore on 22 March when Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia will consider using its nuclear capabilities in the face of an "existential threat." NATO CBRN defense elements were activated this week, increasing the alliance’s readiness to respond to CBRN attacks that may spill over Ukraine’s border. 

Russia's Shifting Priorities

• While at first, regime change appeared to be an objective for Moscow, this no longer seems to be a realistic aim after running into serious challenges in northern Ukraine. In the south, however, Russia is nearing the capture of Mariupol, the one roadblock to Russia creating a land bridge between the Crimean Peninsula and the Donbas, assuming complete control of the Sea of Azov region. Not only would contiguous territory provide depth to defend Russian logistics from Ukrainian counter-attacks, the securing of the land bridge also would provide Russia with a small political victory.
• If Mariupol is captured, Russia (and its proxies) will be able to devote more resources to encircling Ukrainian forces in the Donbas.

Trouble in Minsk?

• On 23 March, Ukrainian-Belarusian relations further deteriorated as the Belarusian Foreign Ministry expelled all but five members of Ukraine’s diplomatic mission, causing the Ukrainian consulate in Brest to close. Ukraine retaliated the following day, reducing Belarus' diplomatic mission in Kyiv to five people and closing its consulate in Lviv.
• The widening of the rift comes as four to five Belarusian battalion tactical groups moved to the Ukraine-Belarus border region of Volyn on 24 March despite no Russian offensive in the area. Ukraine has accused Belarus of mobilizing to support Russia’s offensive, yet the Belorussian political and military establishments have been hesitant to join the war despite strong pressure from Moscow.
• At this time, it does not appear that there is sufficient combat power to open a new axis of advance into Western Ukraine. Though this could change as Russian reinforcements have been seen moving into Belarus.

Cyber Updates

• The FBI is warning all organizations in the U.S. energy sector of hostile network reconnaissance activity stemming from multiple Russia-based IP addresses. These malicious actors are believed to be associated with previous destructive cyber activity against foreign critical infrastructure.
• A cyberattack against Ukraine telecommunications providers on 23 March left Ukrainian Railways online ticketing and telephone services offline. Transportation out of Ukraine has become more complicated than usual due to disruptions from Russian cyber threat groups.

Russia’s assault on Kyiv continues to be stalled as Ukraine continues limited but effective counter-attacks west and north of the capital. The prospect of S-300 weapons shipments from Slovakia may soon be realized as Russia warns against materiel support for Ukraine. 

• According to a report, the U.S. will be sending Ukraine old Soviet SA-8 surface-to-air missile systems (SAMs). The SA-8 is a tactical, air defense system that is highly mobile and will be used to provide cover for ground forces.
• This report comes as NATO partner countries have provided Slovakia with the Patriot air defense system, meeting Slovakia's condition for it to, in turn, send its S-300 SAMs to Ukraine. The S-300 is much more advanced than the SA-8 and would constitute a game-changing weapons transfer to Ukraine, diminishing Russia's ability to conduct airstrikes and possibly even intercept some of Russia's missiles. Russia has stated it will prioritize targeting suspected weapons shipments if the S-300s enter Ukraine, both increasing the risks of an escalation with NATO, and decreasing the overall safety levels of Western Ukraine.  
• On 19 March, Russia’s Ministry of Defence announced the first operational use of the nation’s new Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic missile in a strike against a weapons depot in Ukraine’s western Ivano-Frankivsk region. The use of this new weapon system can be seen either as a final warning against potential S-300 transfers or it may be an indication that Russia is running low on the precision-guided missiles it has been using to strike targets in western Ukraine.
• On 19 March, Belarus' embassy staff left Kyiv, mirroring the departure of Russian diplomats just days prior to the invasion. This evacuation, along with Russia's freezing repayment of Belarus's loans to Russia may point to more direct Belarussian involvement in the conflict. 
• Kyiv has renewed its curfew. The curfew began at 8:00 PM (local time) on 21  March and will last until 07:00 AM on 23 March. During the curfew, movement through the city without special passes is prohibited.

• In the south, Mariupol remains under siege as Russian troops slowly advance into the city while seeming to abandon near-term plans to assault Odesa. According to (unverified) local sources some 80% of the city's infrastructure is damaged or destroyed as the humanitarian situation becomes increasingly dire. Reports have emerged that Russian forces have detained thousands of civilians with some being transferred to Russia.
• The question remains if Mariupol is being made an example of in order to add credence to the impending threat to Kyiv, or if this brutality is only meant for Mariupol, a city that saw intense battles in 2014. The alleged actions of Ukraine's far-right Azov Battalion in Mariupol serve as a key component to Russia's "denazification" narrative and its stated political objective. 
• Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine continue to progress slowly. Stalling from Ukraine is making a comprehensive ceasefire agreement unlikely in the short term, while Russia seeks to impose higher costs on Ukrainian cities to force serious negotiations. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian General Staff has reported that Moscow is preparing its population for a long war scenario, which would include mass mobilization.  

Odessa, Ukraine ‘next’ as Russian Navy is postured over water: Col. Dale Buckner

In a recent interview with Maria Bartiromo on Mornings with Maria on Fox Business, CEO Dale Buckner weighs in on Russia's advancements in Ukraine based on what Global Guardian's on-the-ground teams are experiencing amid evacuation efforts. Dale also shares insight into Russia's military strategy and possible developments in the situation based on his special forces and military experience. 

Lviv

• A Russian cruise missile strike destroyed an aircraft repair plant in Lviv. The strike raises concerns over Lviv's relative safety and underscores Russia's commitment to degrading Ukraine's military and civilian industrial base. 
• In an interview with Russian news organization RT on 18 March, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated that NATO weapons transfers will be treated as targets. This could increase threats against Lviv, which has served as a main transfer point for foreign military assistance.

Kyiv

• Around Kyiv, Russian advancements from the west and northwest remain stalled. Russian artillery continues to target population centers in and around Kyiv.

Kharkiv

• Russian forces continue to shell Kharkiv, but have not launched any major assaults on the city. To the south of Kharkiv, Russian forces launched several unsuccessful attacks to bypass Izyum on 16-17 March after failing to take the town through frontal assaults.

Mariupol, Kherson & Odesa

• Mariupol remains under brutal siege as Russian forces target civilian infrastructure.
• Near Kherson, Russian forces continue to reinforce existing positions as part of a larger operation to defend the city—the only large city under Russian control—and its airbase. 
• In Odesa, Russian forces appear unlikely to launch an unsupported amphibious assault as elements of Russia’s 810th Naval Infantry Brigade were deployed to Mariupol on 16 March after being held in reserve.

RU-UA Negotiations

• Ukraine has reportedly called for Turkey and Germany to act as guarantors of any Russian ceasefire deal. Ukrainian President Zelensky may be seeking to stall negotiations for a better deal as Ukrainian forces successfully extend the Russian assault far beyond its allotted resources and Western sanctions take effect.

Russia: Putin Sets Sights Within

• In a meeting held on 16 March, Putin warned that the real threat to Russia is a “fifth column” of “traitors” who believe Western information on Russia’s war in Ukraine. Putin’s statements of a “purification of society” may precede legislative action further tightening restrictions on civil society. Exit bans have anecdotally been reported, along with intensive questioning of Russian citizens attempting to leave the country. 
• On 17 March, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was reportedly halfway to China before his plane reversed course and returned to Moscow. Both Russia and China have denied the event which may signal a diminishing of support for Russia’s war in Ukraine from China.

On the World Stage

• Slovakia has pledged to send Ukraine S-300 long-range surface-to-air missiles if NATO provides a “proper replacement”. The air defense systems would replace the few possessed by Ukraine at the start of the war and allow Ukrainian forces to target Russian warplanes at an increased distance.
• In turn, the Russian Foreign Ministry warned that the transfer of S-300s by NATO to Ukraine would "create problems" for the donor countries. 
• Uzbekistan, traditionally a Russian ally, has broken with Russian recognition of the conflict and called for an end to the war in Ukraine, suggesting that Russia’s inability to wrest an immediate victory in the war has even its long-time allies concerned.

• Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have been promising according to both sides, but an agreement remains out of reach. Ukrainian President Zelensky said terms have become more realistic, but “time is still needed for the decisions to be in Ukraine’s interests”.
• Zelensky addressed the U.S. Congress again the morning of 16 March to call for support, after which President Biden announced an additional $800 million in security assistance to Ukraine. Funds will supply Ukraine with additional anti-armor and air-defense weapons, bringing total U.S. assistance to Ukraine over the past week to $1 billion.
• On 15 March, the prime ministers of Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovenia made a joint visit to Kyiv, traveling into the warzone to meet with President Zelensky. The EU and NATO leaders returned to Poland the next day, hoping to draw more support to Ukraine in the war and its ambitions for EU membership.
• Two journalists working for Fox News were killed outside Kyiv on 15 March after their vehicle came under fire. The attack follows the death of another journalist outside Kyiv on 13 March, underscoring the danger of traveling in the warzone where army positions are fluid, and the front line is difficult to identify.
• Ukrainian intelligence stated on 15 March that Russia is redeploying forces from the east, Georgia, and Armenia. Authorities believe Russia will use these forces to hold captured territory for a renewed offensive in stalled battlegrounds such as Kyiv.
• Belarus' Lukashenko reiterated that Belarussian forces would not engage in Ukraine.
• President Zelensky extended martial law for an additional 30 days from 26 March. Martial law will allow authorities to impose curfews and restrict entry into and exit out areas.

A PRIVATE COMPANY HAS EVACUATED 6,500 PEOPLE FROM UKRAINE

In a recent article in Defense One, Global Guardian President and CEO Dale Buckner discusses how the company is actively supporting its clients in Ukraine and shared the details of the evacuation process, including how the team determines if evacuees can be reached, the logistics around the journey, and what the support looks like when the evacuees reach the border. 

Think you're being tracked? Here are 3 ways to protect yourself

In a recent interview filmed at Global Guardian's Charlotte, NC-based 24/7 Security Operations Center for WBTV's Safety First, Asset Security President Andrew Vanderburg discusses how the popular GPS trackers known as Air Tags can be used by malign actors to track your whereabouts and steal from you. Andrew also weighs in with what you should do if you find an unknown device in your belongings and steps to take to protect yourself.