In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.
Fall of Goma Portends Shift in Regional Balance of Power
Forces from the rebel group M23—allegedly with support of elements of the Rwandan regular military—took Goma from Democratic Republic of Congo Armed Forces (FARDC) in late January, causing tensions to flare between the DRC and Rwanda. A broader conflict involving not just the DRC and Rwanda but also Uganda and Burundi could disrupt the global supply of cobalt and coltan and worsen an already horrible humanitarian situation. There are over 6 million internally displaced persons in the DRC, along with more than 500,000 who recently fled North and South Kivu provinces since the start of 2025.
The fall of Goma (the provincial capital with two million inhabitants) is the culmination of a renewed military campaign launched by the M23 rebel group in October 2022. Its focus includes not just political and military control of the area, but economic as well. The eastern reaches of the DRC, including Goma and its environs, contain the world’s most productive deposits of today’s most in-demand mineral resources including cobalt, coltan, lithium, and copper. Said mineral deposits help fuel the fighting, and it is said that M23-controlled Rubaya province alone generates $800,000/month for the group in coltan production taxes.
Recommendations:
- The situation in eastern DRC highlights the need for proper travel and business continuity planning.
- All border regions in the DRC should be avoided.
Context
The web of interconnected conflicts in eastern Congo has its roots in the 1994 Rwandan Genocide and other post-colonial ethnic dynamics. The Rwandan Genocide created a mass refugee crisis in the African Great Lakes Region with over 1.5 million ethnic Tutsis and over 1 million ethnic Hutus fleeing to eastern Zaire (currently the DRC) and forming opposing armed groups in Congo’s North Kivu, South Kivu, and Ituri provinces.
Rwanda is accused of providing material support to the M23 group. At the same time, the FARDC faces allegations of providing similar support to the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), a group fighting the Rwandan government. There are over 100 other groups operating in the region, which further complicates the situation.
Ethnic conflict in the DRC is exacerbated by the area’s vast resource wealth, as well as by regional interstate competition. Rwanda, Burundi, and Uganda all maintain spheres of influence in the portion of eastern DRC that they border. The region’s instability, the weakness of the central government, and conflicting external interests helped foment the First and Second Congo Wars.
Current State
Despite a ceasefire agreement signed in July 2024, M23 rebels launched a large-scale offensive in North Kivu on 23 January. M23 force captured multiple towns before claiming control of Goma on 27 January amid an offensive that displaced hundreds of thousands of people. Fighting continued for several days in and around Goma, with M23 taking control of Goma International Airport, the city center, and its suburbs. The airport remains closed.
The fighting prompted Rwandan authorities to close the Grande Barrier Border crossing in Gisenyi on 27 January. However, the smaller of the two crossings was re-opened on 4 February. Border security remains heightened.
The M23 rebels announced a unilateral ceasefire from 4 February, noting it would halt its offensive towards Kavamu Airport and would not advance towards Bukavu. These promises were quickly broken as the group took Bukavu on 16 February after just a few days of fighting. Clashes with FADRC continue along the N2 corridor as the rebel group seeks to solidify their gains.
ForecastBarring concerted regional and international pressure, particularly from South Africa and other regional actors with the military power to back their demands, Rwanda is unlikely to pull support or put the necessary pressure on M23 to halt its advance. Rwanda may in fact bolster its proxy’s position and risk more direct support, especially ahead of possible African Union military intervention. Cross-border shelling and skirmishes between DRC and Rwanda could bring the countries into more direct conflict. Historically, state actor entanglement in the DRC’s wars has previously drawn Angola, South Africa, Namibia, Sudan, and Eritrea into the conflict. In the medium term, Goma’s fall portends a shift in the regional balance of power that could have severe second order consequences for strategic mineral production and regional stability. |
CUSTOM INTELLIGENCE
Our intelligence analysts provide in-depth custom reports—including critical insight from on-the-ground resources—for clients and organizations in need of real-time analysis of world events with the potential to impact business operations. To learn more—and start building your report—complete the form below.
