July Risk Barometer

Israel & Lebanon | Honduras

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.

Middle East on the Brink

Over the last month, Israel has assassinated two of the three Hezbollah southern Lebanon district commanders as the region nears the brink of a further expanding conflict. Global Guardian assesses that Israel will wait until Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s 24 July joint session of Congress address to expand its operations in Lebanon. However, Hezbollah may be necessitated to preempt Israeli efforts should a diplomatic deal to halt the fighting in Gaza fail to materialize.

Since 08 October 2023, Lebanese Hezbollah and Israel have been locked in an attritional war. Roughly 70,000 Lebanese residents and a similar number of Israelis have evacuated from the border regions as a result of the fighting. Hezbollah has sought to ease the pressure off Hamas in the Gaza Strip by demanding the Israeli Defense Force’s (IDF) attention in the north but focusing primarily on military targets and evacuated towns relatively near the border. To this end, it has fired over 5,000 rockets into Israel, killing roughly 20 soldiers, and has burnt over 45,000 hectares of forests in northern Israel. Israel has been battering and counter-battering Hezbollah positions in Southern Lebanon, attacking supply and logistics nodes and targeting mid-level commanders. Israel has eliminated over 350 Hezbollah fighters, including 32 senior Hezbollah officers (two district commanders), and struck thousands of targets, mostly in southern Lebanon.

Hezbollah is using the distance of its strikes to signal intent to Israel, and in late June, Israel began to reposition its forces from the Gaza Envelope to the northern border. Hezbollah’s rocket and missile systems pose a threat to all of Israel, and its ground forces are significantly stronger than those of Hamas. Israel’s commitment to destroying Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon, as it has in Gaza, is credible and could result in thousands of deaths. Lebanon’s already strained economy could collapse entirely, with hundreds of thousands of people displaced and the country's infrastructure severely damaged.

• Several countries have urged their citizens to leave Lebanon immediately, and the United States (U.S.) and Saudi Arabia have warned their citizens not to travel to Lebanon.
• Direct Iranian intervention could potentially draw in American involvement, putting the entire region at risk.
• A third Israel-Lebanon war could significantly inflame social tensions across the Middle East and beyond, including in the U.S. and Europe.
• Global Guardian recommends that firms review evacuation plans for Israel and Lebanon and prepare employees who remain to shelter in place for extended periods of time without power.

Recent Events

• 05 July – Shuttle diplomacy to end the fighting in Gaza resumes in Doha, Qatar, after American and French mediation efforts with Hezbollah in June fail.
• 04 July – Hezbollah launches over 200 rockets and drones, killing an Israeli soldier and forcing tens of thousands of civilians in non-evacuated communities into shelters in its deepest large-scale barrage.
• 03 July – Israel assassinates Hezbollah’s Aziz district commander, Abu Nasser, in Tyre, Lebanon.
• 20 June – Hezbollah Secretary General Nasrallah threatens to strike Cyprus if it grants Israel access to its ports.
• 12 June – Hezbollah fires 400+ rockets into Israel rockets as deep as Tiberias and Haifa.
• 11 June – Israel assassinates Taleb Abdullah, Hezbollah’s commander of the Nasr regional division.

Analysis

The current status quo only benefits Iran, who, through Hezbollah, is probing and attriting Israel’s missile defense system at great cost to Israel. It does not appear that either side is itching for a full-scale war, with a highly sectarian Lebanon on the verge of becoming a failed state and Israel feeling the economic, social, and military effects of having activated its reservists for such a long period. Israel and Lebanon also have displaced populations that need to return home. The only realistic off-ramp that can prevent the conflict from escalating would be a settlement to the War in Gaza. The prospects remain elusive, especially now that the U.S. election cycle is entering an intense phase, and future American policy in the region is uncertain.

Israel aims to create a buffer zone in southern Lebanon to prevent Hezbollah from launching anti-tank guided missiles at Israeli border communities and to demand the withdrawal of Hezbollah's elite Radwan Brigade from the area. Israel's priority is to ensure the safe return of displaced Israelis to their homes in the north. Meanwhile, Hezbollah seeks to avoid an Israeli war on Lebanon and maintain its current domination of the Lebanese state. Additionally, the U.S. is pressuring both Israel and Hezbollah to avoid a broader conflict that could involve both the U.S. and Iran. Hezbollah is Iran’s most prized geostrategic tool, serving as its chief proxy in the region. It is the lynchpin of Iran’s “ring of fire” around Israel (and U.S. forces) — its forward defense strategy to protect the regime and its nuclear program. Iran can’t afford to lose its main deterrent.

Looking Forward

There are four plausible scenarios for how the war of attrition on the Lebanon border will continue:

Scenario 1: Limited Escalation

• The Israeli Air Force (IAF) initiates a large-scale air campaign across southern Lebanon, primarily steering clear of population centers. The operation focuses on eliminating Hezbollah’s drone and rocket units near the border.
• In response, Hezbollah is likely to retaliate, but it may avoid targeting major Israeli cities if Israel similarly avoids civilian areas in Lebanon, primarily in southern Beirut.

Scenario 2: Miscalculation/Mistake

• An errant Hezbollah rocket kills Israeli civilians, or the next Israeli airstrike on a high-value target could spur a major conflict.

Scenario 3: Pre-emptive War

• Both parties share a huge advantage in leveraging the element of surprise to score a knockout blow. Israel needs to eliminate enough of Hezbollah’s estimated 40,000 - 80,000 short-range rockets in the first 24 hours before they are launched, and Hezbollah needs to disable the IAF and Israel’s air defense radars and interceptor batteries. The cost of failure is very high for the entire region.
• It is possible that Iran gets involved directly, and highly likely that its proxies in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen will intervene to a greater degree than at present.
• Airports and critical infrastructure will be targeted and destroyed.

Scenario 4: Gaza Cease-fire/De-escalation   

• Israeli forces eliminate Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar or other senior Hamas leaders in Gaza and potentially rescue more hostages, providing Prime Minister Netanyahu with some leeway to consider compromising on the cease-fire proposal. The prime minister needs a victory in Gaza to prevent the collapse of his governing coalition, and Hamas won’t agree to anything that would preclude its future rise to power in Gaza.
• A diplomatic solution would involve Hezbollah partially withdrawing its fighters some 6-8 miles from the Israel border, while Israel partially withdraws from some of the 13 disputed points along the Lebanon border and halts overflights.

Honduras Digs Deeper on Anti-Gang Strategy Despite Criticism

On 15 June, Honduran President Xiomara Castro took to television and announced a series of proposals to combat organized crime, particularly in the most violent municipalities. These latest proposals piggyback onto an active state of emergency first declared in November 2022. Initially set for 45 days in Tegucigalpa and San Pedro Sula, the state of emergency has been repeatedly extended and now covers over 90% of the population. It allows suspension of parts of the Constitution in the fight against gang crime.

Honduran leadership, inspired by the success of neighboring El Salvador in reducing violent crime rates, is striving to implement a similar approach. However, the proposed measures have been met with criticism for their lack of a comprehensive strategy and their poor results thus far from the ongoing state of emergency.

Notable 15 June Proposals

• Construction of a 20,000-capacity prison between the departments of Olancho and Gracias a Dios.
• Requesting Congress to reform the penal code so that drug traffickers and members of criminal gangs who commit specific crimes can be designated as terrorists and tried collectively in court.
• Immediate arrest of "intellectual authors, leaders, and gang members."

Global Guardian recommends the use of secure transportation within Honduras.

Analysis

In many municipalities, extensions of the state of emergency without Congressional ratification have risked prosecutions, with only eight people convicted of extortion in the first three months of 2024 compared to 105 in all of 2022. In addition, while homicide rates have declined, this decline is happening in municipalities both under the state of emergency and those outside it, casting doubt on the government's claims of success being tied to the suspension of constitutional rights.

The latest proposals target symptoms rather than the root cause of crime. The ongoing corruption within security forces and both the judiciary and executive branches means it will take a long time to fill up the proposed 20,000-person prison. Earlier this year, the former president of Honduras, Juan Orlando Hernandez, was sentenced in an American court to 45 years in prison for drug trafficking and related firearms offenses. Without rooting out corruption and empowering security forces and the courts to enforce laws and convict criminals, violent crime will persist.

Looking Forward

Honduras seems to be stuck in the same security gray zone as Ecuador following its own declaration of gangs as terrorist organizations earlier in 2024 after gang violence spilled out of prisons and into the streets of Guayaquil and elsewhere. Without taking the extreme and extrajudicial step that El Salvador has taken of arresting and imprisoning nearly all suspected gang members, Honduras will continue to struggle to make a real dent in organized crime and associated violence.  

Definition of Terms: The table below outlines the language of probability and definition of terms used in this assessment.

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