On 01 October, it was reported that Iran was preparing for a ballistic missile barrage targeting Israel in retaliation for the massive airstrikes on Hezbollah HQ that killed its leader, Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah on 27 September. The same strikes also took out some 20 other senior Hezbollah officials and likely Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) handlers. The threat of Iranian missiles prompted the U.S. Embassy in Israel to issue a shelter-in-place warning and comes after Israel launched a ground incursion into Lebanon on 30 September. Many nations continue to advise their citizens to leave Lebanon by commercial means while still available.
Incursion SItrep
- The last week of Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets precipitated a limited ground incursion by the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) into southern Lebanon on 30 September. Israeli movement into Lebanon has been limited to the area immediately along the border. Unverified, but likely credible, footage is circulating showing the destruction of tunnel systems on the Lebanese side of the border.
- There have been no verified reports of significant Israeli forces maintaining a presence more than a few kilometers inside Lebanon.
- Hezbollah and other fighters are confirmed to have engaged in at least three exchanges with Israeli forces over the past 24 hours, but it is not immediately clear if these engagements took place over the border or on the Lebanese side.
- The IDF continues to strike Beirut after announcing that the city is being targeted on Twitter/X. The most recent strikes are the closest to the city center of Beirut since the start of escalation in the region.
Analysis
- Israel's near-term goal is to dismantle tunnels and infrastructure right around the border to clear the imminent threat of an Oct. 7-styled attack that Hezbollah was planning. Months of covert raids by special forces into Lebanon uncovered this plot by Hezbollah.
- The intermediate goal is to clear the way to push deeper with larger forces to establish a ~5km buffer zone around the Lebanon-Israel border.
- The strategic goal is to pressure the Lebanese state and international community to enforce UN resolution 1701, which demilitarizes the territory south of the Litani River.
Forecast
- Continued Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah and other Iranian-proxy targets in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq.
- The possibility of escalation is medium-to-high, especially if Iranian missiles manage to connect with their targets.
- Airspace shutdowns are likely in event of ballistic missile barrage from Iran.
Recommendations
- Promptly evacuate employees from Lebanon.
- Follow guidance from local authorities.
- Utilize the Red Alert or Tzofar missile alarm app.
- Shelter in place as required.
- Continue to avoid non-essential travel to Israel and Lebanon as the situation continues to evolve.
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