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At approximately 02:30 local time on 26 October 2024, Israel began strikes on Iran in retaliation for its massive 01 October missile attack on Israel. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesman announced that “…The Israel Defense Force is now precisely attacking military targets in Iran." Initial local reports indicate explosions near Tehran, Mashhad, and Karaj in Iran. Both United States (U.S.) and Israeli officials expect a military response from Iran. Israel is believed to have struck the IRGC building in Tehran. Israeli airstrikes against Syrian Regime Air Defenses in Suwayda and Homs were also reported.

Travel disruptions in the region can be expected in the coming days.

Flash Analysis

  • At this time, it appears this Israeli strike was limited in scope and severity.
  • Military targets are less escalatory than targeting Iran's vital economic assets and nuclear program sites.  
  • If this "round is over," a more limited Iranian response is likely.
  • While an Iranian attack is expected, the timing is unclear.  
  • The U.S. was notified prior to the IDF strike and has surged additional aviation and air defense assets over the last week.

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