From Beirut to Tel Aviv, the northern front of the October 7th War has reached an inflection point. In the last week, Israel has nearly decimated Hezbollah’s senior leadership, destroyed hundreds of its launchers, and wounded several thousand of its members in a series of operations to blow up Hezbollah-linked communication devices.
On 23 September, Israel Defense Minister Yoav Gallant estimated that half of Hezbollah's long and medium range missiles had been destroyed in the strikes. It appears that Hezbollah’s ability to coordinate barrages of hundreds of parallel launches has been significantly reduced. But Israel is no closer to achieving its objective of returning its evacuated citizens to the north. Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanded militias have reportedly been amassing in Syria. This high-stakes game of chicken will continue until all options short of full-scale war are exhausted.
- Additional United States (U.S.) & UK assets are being deployed to the region to possibly aid in a potential evacuation effort.
- We assess that the conflict will continue to escalate in the coming days and weeks.
Recent Events
- 25 September – Israel activates two reservist brigades after Hezbollah fires missiles at Tel Aviv for the first time.
- 23 September – IDF reports that over 1,600 Hezbollah targets were struck in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley. The Lebanese Health Ministry reports 558 fatalities and 1,835 injured from the strikes.
- 23 September – Hezbollah targets the greater Haifa & Nazareth/Jezreel Valley areas in Israel with large rocket barrage.
- 19 September – Israel eliminates key senior Hezbollah Radwan (expeditionary force) leadership in southern Beirut via airstrike.
- 18 September – Walkie-talkies and other electronics explode, killing at least 25 and injuring hundreds more across Lebanon.
- 17 September – Thousands of pagers belonging to senior Hezbollah and Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) members are detonated across Lebanon and Syria, injuring around 4,000.
Analysis
Neither Israel nor Hezbollah want the current situation to formally devolve into the third Lebanon War. But now that the Biden administration has conceded an Israel-Hamas ceasefire/hostage deal is out of reach, no tangible off ramps to the conflict remain.
Following last week's events, Israel enjoys complete escalation dominance, intelligence and air superiority, and is content with continuing to attack high value Hezbollah targets short of launching a ground invasion. Israel is effectively dictating to Hezbollah: either spark a full-scale war and show your hand, and in doing so, be responsible for Lebanon's destruction, or try to keep up with us on the escalation ladder.
A major Hezbollah barrage that inflicts serious damage to Tel Aviv or Israeli critical infrastructure could trigger a wider war to include a ground conflict in Lebanon and possibly in the Golan Heights.
Forecast
Going forward, Hezbollah has two options: expand rocket fire to central Israel but limit the scope of attacks, or launch massive attacks to change the dynamics, sparking an all-out war. Should Israeli pressure continue apace, Hezbollah and its Iranian patron will be forced into a "use it or lose it" situation. While Israel may be able to enter Lebanon to conduct limited maneuvers, a large ground offensive could draw Israel into a quagmire and could see IRGC fighters from across the region enter the fray.
Recommendations
- Promptly evacuate employees from southern Lebanon.
- Follow guidance from local authorities
- Utilize the Red Alert or Tzofar missile alarm app
- Shelter in place as required
- Continue to avoid non-essential travel to Israel and Lebanon as the situation continues to evolve. Utilize commercial aviation to depart from Lebanon if able.
STANDING BY TO Support
Global Guardian is closely monitoring the situation and can support clients who need assistance with the following:
- Emergency evacuation by air
- Executive protection
- Secure transportation
- Emergency response
- Intelligence reports
- Welfare checks
Click below to contact Global Guardian's 24/7 Operations Center or call us directly at +1 (703) 566-9463.
