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Clashes Erupt in Southern Beirut

Situation update

At approximately 1100 local time, sniper fire was reported against members and supporters of Lebanon’s Shia Hezbollah and the Amal Movement near the Palace of Justice in the Tayouneh area of Beirut, southeast of the city center.

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"Justice for J6" Rally Planned

THREAT REPORT

On Saturday, 18 September, 2021, upwards of 700 people will return to the U.S. Capitol to rally in support of defendants charged in connection with the January 6 storming of the Capitol building following the pro-Trump "Stop the Steal" rally. The demonstration is planned for noon at Union Square, which encompasses the U.S. Capitol. Multiple road closures will be in effect.

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Hong Kong Business Risks

 For the first time, on 16 July, the United States government issued a joint advisory on the risks of conducting business, studying, and investing in Hong Kong. This release is a direct response to the June 2020 National Security Law (NSL) that Beijing imposed on Hong Kong which effectively crushed the autonomous region’s special freedoms and extended the risks that foreign businesses and travelers face in Mainland China to Hong Kong.

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Protests and Unrest Flare Across Globe

The last several weeks have seen protests and violent unrest unfold in Cuba, Haiti, and South Africa due to a worsening COVID-19 situation, presidential assassination, and imprisonment of former leader respectively. The below updates provide context and an outlook for each of the three situations.

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European Travel Destinations for Americans This Summer

Ready to get back to travel? The good news is that after a long wait, Europe has finally opened its doors to American tourists. Global Guardian's Intelligence Analysts have created a map for easy reference for those planning a European getaway this summer.

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Violence Heats Up Amid Mexico’s Midterms

On 06 June 2021, Mexicans went to the polls in the country’s largest ever vote, electing 500 federal legislators, 15 governors, members of around 25 state assemblies, and over 20,000 local politicians. The midterms were marred by a series of political assassinations targeting local and state level officials.

While President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known as AMLO, was not on the ballot, the elections at the state and federal levels were largely a referendum on AMLO and his statist political program that would include amending the constitution to make way for radical political and economic reforms, most importantly, the renationalization of segments of the energy industry.

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Conflict with Gaza Militants and Violence in Jerusalem

After weeks of high tensions and violent clashes in Jerusalem, Gaza-based militants have opened another round of conflict with Israel. Casualties are mounting on both sides with no ceasefire on the horizon. Meanwhile, violent clashes and sectarian violence have broken out in multi-ethnic areas of Israel outside of Jerusalem, in Nazareth, Acre, Ramle, Haifa, and Lod with several casualties reported. With escalating conflict on the domestic and military fronts, it is highly unlikely that the situation will calm down before next week with Nakba Day falling on Saturday (15 May).

TACTICAL UPDATES
  • Ben Gurion International Airport (TLV) has suspended flights & several roads and train lines in southern Israel are closed due to security concerns
  • State of Emergency declared in Lod, following intense sectarian violence
  • Gaza militants have launched over 1,100 rockets within 38 hours 
  • 500+ Israeli airstrikes reported
  • 50+ Palestinians killed (including militants), 300+ wounded; 6 Israelis killed (including one soldier), 200+ wounded
  • Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), Iran’s foremost proxy in Gaza, has introduced its new Sajil missile; Hamas unveiled its new SH85 missile   
  • In the last 24 hours, Israel has assassinated several senior-level militant commanders, including:
    • Head of PIJ’s Rocket Forces
    • Hamas’ Gaza City Brigadier General 
    • Head of Hamas’ Anti-Tank Unit
    • Head of Hamas’ Cyber Network and Missile Improvement Project
    • Head of Hamas’ Rocket Development
    • Head of Hamas’ Security Branch of Military Intelligence
    • Head of Hamas’ Technical Department for Military Intelligence
    • Brother of the leader of Hamas' Political Wing (in Gaza)
  • Hamas and PIJ are having some success overwhelming Iron Dome with large barrages (100+ rockets in several minutes) and using low trajectories 
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Nationwide Unrest in Colombia

SITUATION REPORT

  • What began as anti-tax reform protests on 28 April have morphed and spread to nationwide anti-government unrest in the ensuing days. Protests quickly turned violent as security forces cracked down and clashed with demonstrators across the country. Cali, Bogotá, Medellín, and Barranquilla have been epicenters for violent unrest.
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Darkside Responsible for Colonial Pipeline Hack

On May 10, the FBI announced that on Friday, May 7, a group known as DarkSide was responsible for a ransomware attack that effectively shut down the operation of the Colonial Pipeline.

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State of Play in the Middle East: Situation Update on the Iranian Nuclear Threat

Tensions in the Middle East remain high amid recent incidents in the region, and any number of triggers could lead to conflict involving Lebanon, Israel, Iran, and the U.S and their proxies. The possible renegotiation of the abandoned nuclear deal sits at the center of the situation, and all eyes are now turned to the key players to see how it plays out.

SITUATION REPORT

Two key deadlines loom large as conflicting reports emerge over the diplomatic progress concerning Iran’s nuclear program. If a compromise between the U.S. and Iran is not reached by 21 May, Iran has threatened to erase the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) monitoring footage of its nuclear activities, possibly upending negotiations. The second upcoming date is 18 June, where hardliners are expected to win Iran’s presidential elections and gain control over the nation’s diplomatic endeavors.

As the clock ticks on the diplomatic track, regional tensions remain high following several significant geopolitical incidents in April. These include a sabotage event at Iran’s primary nuclear facility, the mysterious death of a top Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander, the U.S. navy firing warning shots at an IRCC ship in the Gulf (for the first time in four years), and alarms sounding at Israel’s nuclear reactor. Against the backdrop of recent diplomatic initiatives and geopolitical incidents, the region is on edge awaiting what comes next.

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