TüRKIYE | Sudan | Peru

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travels. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates, including this monthly report.

 

General Elections Replete with Security Risks

On 14 May, Turks will go to the polls to elect both their president and parliament in the highest stakes election in a generation. A second round between the two top presidential contenders will take place on 28 May unless the 14 May poll produces a clear presidential winner with more than 50% of cast votes. Due to the tightness of the presidential and parliamentary races and high projected turnout, few expect the losing bloc to accept the election result. Not only is the outcome likely to be disputed, but there is also an elevated risk of security incidents in the final days through election day and the potential run-off process.

The incumbent, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) have won the last five parliamentary elections, two presidential polls, and three referendums. He even thwarted a military coup in 2016. Yet this election could spell an end to Erdogan and the AKP’s tight grip on power for the last 20 years. Per Türkiye’s historical record, a peaceful transfer of power would be unprecedented: no modern Turkish president has been ousted by way of the ballot.

• Global Guardian anticipates disputed parliamentary election results and an inconclusive first-round of presidential voting.
• We recommend halting non-essential travel to Istanbul and Ankara until after the election results have been confirmed and then accepted by all parties.
• For essential travel to Türkiye during this period, Global Guardian recommends having an evacuation plan in place should the security environment deteriorate.
• For those who will be in country on election day, we recommend stocking up on essential supplies including water and non-perishable food, and reducing movement outside of your home.
• Global Guardian maintains a travel advisory for: Batman, Diyarbakir, Gaziantep, Hakkâri, Hatay, Kilis, Mardin, Sanliurfa, Şırnak, and Tunceli provinces in eastern and southeastern Türkiye.

Recent Events

29 April – The leader of the Islamic State (IS) militant organization, Abu Hussein al Qurashi, was killed in a Turkish security raid in Syria.

25 April – Police in Diyarbakır, Diyarbakır arrested 110 individuals in a counter terror raid that the pro-Kurdish People's Democratic Party (HDP) decried as an act of voter suppression.

22 April – Two shooters opened fire at an AKP election campaign office in Gungoren district, Istanbul.

20 April – The Supreme Election Council of Türkiye (YSK) ruled to exclude the opposition coalition, the Republican People's Party (CHP) and Iyi Party, from participating in the 14 May general election under the "Nation Alliance" banner in an ostensible effort to confuse voters.

20 April – A shooting was reported at the Cukurova AKP district office in Adana Province.

06 April – A shooting was reported outside an opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) office in Istanbul.

Context

Economic

• Over the past two years, the Lira has lost 60% of its value against the dollar.
• Over the past five years, foreign ownership of equities has halved and foreign owned government debt has decreased 25-fold.
• Last fall, inflation reached 86% year-on-year and currently remains over 40%.
• In January, the current-account deficit hit a record USD $10 billion.

Humanitarian

• On 06 February 2023, a 7.8 magnitude earthquake rocked southeast Türkiye near the Syrian border, resulting in the creation of over four million internal refugees in Türkiye and the deaths of over 50,000 people in an area that was traditionally an AKP stronghold.
• Türkiye hosts over 3.5 million Syrian refugees (largest refugee population on the planet). Kemal Kılıcdaroğlu and the National Alliance have pledged to repatriate them in Syria.

Political

• Polls predict a record voter turnout this year; projecting over five million new voters
• During the 2019 Istanbul and Ankara mayoral election, the AKP lost control of the country’s financial hub and capital, prompting party officials from both cities to reject the results, citing voter irregularities.
• Following the 2016 coup, Erdogan purged the military of independent leadership, stacked the judiciary, took de facto control of the elections apparatus, and chilled freedom of the press.
• The only Turkish president to have voluntarily left office while still wielding levels of power and influence comparable to Erdogan’s was Inonu in 1950.

Looking Forward

A Close Race – preliminary results should come in overnight on 14-15 May, and the Supreme Election Council are expected to declare unofficial results within the following two or three days. But certain delays can be expected, especially with the logistical challenges associated with polling in the earthquake affected areas and over a million early expatriate ballots being collected from abroad. What’s more, with a three-man presidential race, there is a high likelihood that neither Erdogan or Kılıcdaroğlu can secure more than 50% of the vote without a run-off. Tensions will be higher in provinces where no single presidential candidate or political party have a clear dominance, fueling allegations of election fraud or voter suppression.

Acute Security Incident(s) – Largescale terror attack(s) targeting voters or political rallies cannot be ruled out. Jihadist groups (including IS), Kurdish independence groups, or government-connected actors (false flag operation) all have the motivation and capability to conduct an attack. In this scenario, martial law would be declared and the election tabulation will be put on hold until the government can reestablish law and order. A major attack could be used to justify a renewed military operation in Syria or Iraq and could be used to indefinitely suspend the election process.

Violent Protests – In the event of an inconclusive poll, all parties may demonstrate even amid a heightened and heavy-handed security posture. Furthermore, Syrian (and Afghan refugees) fearing a Kılıcdaroğlu/National Alliance win and possible deportation, could begin to take to the streets to either intimidate potential voters or protest the initial vote counts.

Power Struggle in Sudan is Threatening to Destabilize the Region

Both the regular Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) consider themselves capable of military victory, have few incentives to negotiate, and are actively seeking support from outside actors. The conflict – which has already seen more than 700,000 people displaced and thousands of casualties - will likely develop into a protracted struggle and threatens to destabilize an already delicate region.

Talks being held between the two factions in Saudi Arabia have failed to yield progress as fighting and looting continue. Saudi and American diplomatic sources have indicated that neither side sees a political solution as viable, and both sides consider themselves capable of achieving their political aims through outright military victory. The goal of the talks is to negotiate a ceasefire – not a peace agreement – to facilitate the exodus of foreign nationals and allow for desperately needed humanitarian supplies.

• Global Guardian recommends against all non-essential travel to Sudan

Context

On 15 April, fighting broke out between RSF and SAF forces in the capital Khartoum and other strategic locations throughout the country. The fighting has been characterized by the use of heavy weapons on both sides, SAF airstrikes in populated areas, and indiscriminate robbery and looting as the supply situation becomes dire. Thousands of foreign nationals have been forced to undertake dangerous evacuations with minimal supplies, the threat of robbery and violence, and in some cases, crossing thousands of kilometers of desert.

General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan of the SAF and General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo – better known as Hemedti – of the RSF took control of Sudan in a 2021 coup. Burhan and Hemedti agreed in late 2022 to restore civilian leadership within a two-year timeline. However, as part of the transition plan Hemedti’s RSF was slated to be integrated into the regular army. Hemedti’s substantial personal fortune was built through the RSF and its loss would likely entail his exclusion from politics and possible prosecution for crimes against humanity perpetrated by the RSF.

Timeline

• 15 April – Fighting breaks out between in RSF and SAF forces concentrated in Khartoum
• 17 April – Clashes resume in Khartoum, Omdurman, and Merowe airport (MWE)
• 21 April – Reports of heavy shelling and gunfire in Khartoum, Khartoum Bahri, and Omdurman
• 23 April – Over 25,000 detainees escape from Kobar Prison and four other prisons
• 30 April – SAF attempts to dislodge RSF in Khartoum using air strikes and heavy artillery
• 06 May – Turkish embassy in Khartoum is moved to Port Sudan after the Turkish ambassador's car is hit by gunfire.
  
  

Protests, Unrest Subside but Risks Remain amid Political Uncertainty

The nationwide protests that began in December 2022, following the impeachment and arrest of former president Castillo, and lasted for months have since subsided across most of the country as the protest movement loses energy. The government has lifted curfews and states of emergency in most areas. However, risks of future unrest cannot be ruled out as acting president Dina Boluarte and Peru’s Congress remain unpopular and have yet to capitulate to the protesters’ demands, including resignation and moving up elections from the original 2026 date.

• Global Guardian continues to advise against any non-essential travel to rural areas in the south of Peru, including Puno and La Libertad regions.
• Travel to Lima and other large cities may resume, including to Machu Pichu, which was heavily impacted by protests.
• Global Guardian strongly recommends the use of low-profile secure transportation for essential travel within Peru.

Context

Faced with the third attempted impeachment since his inauguration, President Castillo attempted to dissolve Congress and set up a provisional system of rule by decree on 07 December 2022. However, Congress successfully removed Castillo from office, charged him with rebellion and conspiracy, and installed his former vice president Dina Boluarte as President. Castillo’s supporters took to the streets in Lima and across the country demanding his release, an accelerated election schedule, the dissolution of Congress, the resignation of Boluarte, and constitutional reform.

Demonstrations caused severe disruptions to travel throughout the country. Protesters established roadblocks on main highways in the departments of Puno, Cusco, Arequipa, Madre de Dios, Apurimac, Ucayali, and Tacna. Pro-Castillo supporters also stormed airports across several regions, and thousands of tourists were evacuated from sites, including Machu Pichu, after being stranded by transportation disruptions.

Notable Events

• 27 April 2023 - Authorities imposed a state of emergency (SoE) in border districts of Tumbes, Piura, Cajamarca, Amazonas, Loreto, Madre de Dios and Tacna departments, effective for 60 days until 26 June, to tackle illegal immigration at border crossings with Chile, Bolivia, Brazil, Ecuador, and Colombia. The SoE allows armed forces to conduct public security duties and restricts the rights of assembly and movement.
• 25 April 2023 - Authorities announced that Inca Manco Cápac International Airport (JUL/SPJL) in Juliaca, Puno region, resumed operations following a closure due to property damage caused by clashes between security forces and anti-government protesters in the vicinity of the airport on 06 January.
• 20 April 2023 - Authorities extended the ongoing state of emergency (SoE) in La Libertad region for 30 days, amid ongoing anti-government demonstrations and blockades across the country.
• 09 March 2023 - A judge in Peru extended ex-President Pedro Castillo's pre-trial detention term to 36 months, up from 18 months.

Looking Forward

So far, the government has ceded little in relation to the protesters’ demands. Congress has voted down multiple bills put forth by Boluarte to move up elections to early 2024 from 2026 when originally scheduled. At the same time, Castillo was sentenced to 36 months of pre-trial detention by a judge in Peru, up from the original 18 months of pre-trial detention. These actions, combined with Boluarte and Congress’ dismal approval ratings mean anti-government protests could erupt in the future. However, protest fatigue and lack of success from the first several months of demonstrations and unrest mean that widespread, coordinated protests are unlikely.

Additionally, increased migration at the borders with Chile, Bolivia, Brazil, Ecuador, and Colombia has led to clashes at border crossings and states of emergency declarations. This is driving much of the security-related focus in Peru and distracting from anti-government protests.

KEY TAKEAWAYS The disorganization of Peru’s political system and its classes and parties means that a deeply unpopular president and Congress are likely to remain in office until 2026 elections. Congress will neither impeach and remove Boluarte nor move up elections. For the time being, travel to Peru can resume as normal.

 

On the morning of 09 May, Pakistan's former Prime Minister and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) political party leader, Imran Khan, was arrested while in court in Islamabad. A small team of the Pakistan Rangers paramilitary force detained him on multiple charges. Shortly afterward, large-scale protests by PTI activists erupted in several areas nationwide including in Lahore, Faisalabad, Islamabad, Karachi, and Peshawar. Protests have turned violent in several cities as security forces clash with Khan supporters. All protests and political rallies should be avoided.

FRANCE | PAKISTAN

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travels. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates, including this monthly report.

 

Protests TO CONTINUE, Causing Widespread Disruption

The French government's recent decision to push through a pension reform bill has resulted in widespread protests and strikes, impacting security, transportation, and businesses across the nation. Paris has seen the most impact from riots and strikes, resulting in property damage, piles of garbage along streets, and airport operations disruptions. Hundreds of thousands of people have participated across the country.

Background

On 16 March, President Emmanuel Macron's government invoked Article 49.3, a special constitutional power, to push through a pension reform bill that raises the retirement age from 62 to 64. The government claims the reform is necessary due to a projected annual deficit of EUR 10 billion between 2022 and 2032. The National Assembly subsequently rejected two no-confidence motions, allowing the pension reform bill to become law. This has triggered nationwide strikes and protests, which are expected to continue and possibly intensify.

Protests and Impact

Trade unions, including the CGT, FO, CFE-CGC, UGICT, and Unsa have launched strikes that have heavily affected ground, rail, and air transportation, including in major cities like Paris, Lyon, and Marseille. Flights have been disrupted at multiple airports, while services on the RATP network in the greater Paris area and the SNCF network nationwide have been severely impacted. Unionized port and dock workers have also joined the strikes, disrupting port traffic. Additionally, around 20 percent of petrol stations have reported fuel shortages due to refinery workers' strikes.

Frequent protest sites in Paris include Place Vauban, Place de la Concorde, Place de la République, Place de la Nation, Place de la Bastille, Place d'Italie, Boulevard Beaumarchais, Avenue de la République, and the National Assembly.

While many protests have been peaceful, others have escalated to violence, with instances of rioting, property damage, and clashes between demonstrators and security forces. Hundreds of people, including police officers, have been injured amid the unrest.

Key Takeaways

• Nationwide protests and strikes are causing significant disruptions to transportation services, including flights, trains, and urban public transport.
• Major urban hubs, such as Paris, Lyon, and Marseille, are experiencing increased risk due to clashes between protesters and security forces.
• Travelers to and within France should anticipate disruptions and potential delays, confirm updated itineraries prior to departure, and avoid all demonstrations due to the risk of violence. The majority of protests begin in afternoon hours and violence typically doesn’t break out until evening hours.
• Residents and businesses in affected areas should stay informed of situational updates through local media and be prepared for continued disruptions.

 

Pakistan’s Three-Headed Crisis Continues Despite Improvements in Economic Outlook

Pakistan’s three-headed crisis continues, decreasing the country’s stability. Politically, opposition leader Imran Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party continue to challenge Pakistan’s political system despite the legal campaign to disqualify Khan—the former prime minister and current most popular political figure—from running in this year’s elections. The security situation continues to deteriorate as the government recently declared an “all-out comprehensive operation” to stamp out terrorism akin to its 2014 push to oust militants from the northwest region bordering Afghanistan.

Meanwhile, Pakistan is closer to staving off default as Saudi Arabia has now pledged financing support, bringing it closer to receiving the next $1 billion tranche of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) bailout package. However, as part of the IMF’s deal, Pakistan has hiked fuel prices and taxes, increasing inflation to all-time highs. Further protests and terror activity can be expected in the near term.

• Global Guardian continues to warn against all travel to Balochistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa provinces, as well as the areas of Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) and Gilgit-Baltistan near the Line of Control (LoC).
• Monitoring the political situation and making contingency plans is essential for all travel to Pakistan, especially for travel to Punjab Province
• Having secure transportation with protection agents attuned to the local political situation is essential for all business travel to Pakistan.

Context

In March 2022, opposition parties, including the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), submitted a no-confidence motion over Khan’s alleged economic mismanagement, disregard for procedural norms, and most importantly, his major foreign policy rift with the military. Since his removal from power last year, Khan has been dealt dozens of charges—that are ostensibly politically motivated—including some for which he faces arrest. These include corruption, terrorism, contempt of courts, rioting, and blasphemy. The terrorism charges over publicly naming and shaming a particular judge bears the potential to disqualify Khan from running for or holding public office. Khan is on interim bail for three cases, which is set to expire on 13 April.

Recent Events

• 07 March – The Islamabad High Court issued an arrest warrant on corruption charges against the former prime minister, but he avoided arrest and instead filed a petition in the same court to cancel the warrant.
• 13 March – Khan skips Islamabad court appearance, citing threats on his life.
• 14 March – PTI activists and police continued to clash while roads leading to PTI Chairman Imran Khan’s house in Lahore’s Zaman Park were also blocked overnight on 14-15 March, after police tried to serve an arrest warrant to Khan over a graft case. Power cuts were reported in Zaman Park. Similar PTI protests and clashes were reported in other cities nationwide including in Karachi, Islamabad, Rawalpindi, and Peshawar.
• 04 April – The Pakistan Supreme Court ordered Punjab province to hold provincial assembly elections on May 14. This came after the Court deemed the election commission's decision to delay the elections due to security risks and financial constraints as unconstitutional.
• 05 April – PTI activists rallied nationwide, including at Liberty Chowk in Lahore, Lyari in Karachi, Multan, Dadu, Faisalabad, Rawalpindi, Vehari, Bahawalpur, DG Khan, Sargodha, Gujranwala, Okara, and Hyderabad to mark the Supreme Court verdict ordering officials to hold elections on 14 May in Punjab province. No clashes or arrests were immediately reported.
• 07 April – The leader and founder of the Baloch National Army (BNA) militant group, Shambay, was arrested in a security raid. The arrest of Shambay, a significant setback for the BNA and other Baloch militant groups, may trigger blowback in southwestern Pakistan, where Baloch separatists have been fighting for an independent state for years. The threat is expected to remain confined to the restive Balochistan Province.
• 07 April – Pakistan's National Security Committee announced it would launch a comprehensive counter terror operation with further details to be announced.

KEY TAKEAWAYS Further clashes between PTI supporters and police can be expected as authorities attempt to arrest Khan. The planned military operation presages a further increase in violence throughout the country. The government may use this military operation or future terror attacks stemming from the operation to delay the critical 14 May Punjab elections. The government is desperate to prevent Khan’s PTI from dominating the polls in the provincial elections of the country’s most populous area.

 

Israel | MIDDLE EAST

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travels. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates, including this monthly report.

 

ISrael Faced with instability on Two fronts

Israel is currently experiencing both a steady uptick in terrorism and widespread protests against proposed judicial reforms that have impacted businesses, security, and transportation. Between the brazen terror attacks on Israeli civilians on both sides of the Green Line and the high-risk, daytime Israeli security operations in the West Bank, the overall political environment is conducive to another Gaza flair up or even, a third Intifada, as recently warned by CIA Director Bill Burns.

Tensions have been high for over a year—which included a brief war—but since the IDF raid in Jenin on 26 January and the terror attack the next day on a synagogue in East Jerusalem, the pace of violence has increased. With the Palestinian Authority unable to maintain order in its territory, more terrorist attacks and blunt counter-terror operations are likely.

Judicial Reform

Meanwhile, the anti-government/anti-Netanyahu protests in Israel’s major cities continue. On 11 March, approximately 250,000 demonstrators gathered in central Tel Aviv, blocking access to Ayalon Highway and disrupting transit on roads near Ben Gurion International Airport in Tel Aviv. This was the largest single demonstration since protests began on 04 February.

Impact

• Demonstrations against judicial reform began on 04 February, with protests across Israel, including in Tel Aviv, Haifa, Jerusalem, Ra’anana, and Kfar Saba.
• Since then, protests have spread to nearly every city in Israel, with primary impacts felt in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Habima Square, Ayalon Highway, and government offices are focus points of the protests.
• Police have deployed water cannons, stun grenades, and tear gas against protesters.
• On 15 March, protesters attempted to block roads in and out of Ben Gurion International Airport in an effort to disrupt PM Netanyahu’s flight to Germany.
• The unrest highlights the risk of political instability, the acute ongoing transportation disruptions, and the need for secure transportation when traveling overland in Israel.

The root of the unrest is proposed reforms spearheaded by Prime Minister Netanyahu’s government that would weaken the Supreme Court by limiting the Supreme Court's power to exercise judicial review, granting the government control over judicial appointments, and limiting the authority of its legal advisors. The reform would also grant the Knesset the power to override Supreme Court rulings that deem legislation passed by the Knesset as unconstitutional, by reintroducing the legislation and approving it with a majority of Knesset Members—effectively bypassing the Supreme Court and tilting the balance of power. On 13 March, the first reading of the proposed reform was approved by the Knesset. Two more readings must be approved before the bill becomes law.

Reaction

• The widespread public outcry against the reforms has thrown a spotlight on PM Netanyahu, who is barred from debating the proposal due to his ongoing trial involving Israel’s judiciary.
• The reforms are seen as shifting the balance of power away from the judiciary and towards the legislative and executive branches. Netanyahu denies he will use the reforms to appoint judges in order to get his trial frozen or thrown out.
• Israeli President Isaac Herzog, largely a ceremonial figure, denounced the reforms and called for them to be withdrawn.
• At least 37 elite Israeli Air Force pilots refused training in protest against the reforms.

Outlook

Protests are likely to continue in the near term even if the judicial reforms are withdrawn and the deteriorating security situation in the West Bank is unsustainable. It is unclear if this uptick in violence will fizzle out or culminate in the third Intifada. But what is clear is that with the weak, ageing, and successor-less Palestinian President Abbas and Iran’s immediate interest in fanning flames to divert Israel’s attention, the stage is set for a major deterioration in the security landscape of Israel for the coming months.  

 

Normalization between Saudi Arabia and Iran Increases Regional Stability

Iran and Saudi Arabia have agreed to restore diplomatic ties after years of contentious relations where the leading Shiite and Sunni powers, respectively, supported opposing sides in sectarian conflicts throughout the region. The Chinese-mediated deal signals a moderately stabilizing shift in regional political dynamics and more importantly, it portends a possible end to the devastating conflict in Yemen.

Timeline

• 2011 – Saudi Arabia sends troops to quell ethnic Shiite protests against the Sunni royal family in Bahrain. Saudi Arabia blames Iran for instigating the unrest.
• 2015 – Saudi Arabia begins its involvement in the Yemeni war where the Iran-backed Houthi rebels hold large parts of the country.
• 2016 – Saudi Arabia executes Shiite cleric Nimr al Nimr resulting in the storming of the Saudi Embassy in Tehran.
• 2016 – Saudi Arabia and Iran sever diplomatic ties.
• 2019 – Iran is implicated in missile and drone attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure.
• 2021 – Iran and Saudi Arabia hold talks in Baghdad.
• 2023 – Iran and Saudi Arabia normalize relations and agree to reopen reciprocal diplomatic missions by May.

Response to Detente

Saudi Arabia is enthusiastic about the possibility of ending their involvement in the Yemeni quagmire, and Iran is eager to dampen American efforts at isolating Tehran. The normalization has been welcomed by several countries in the region, including past mediators Iraq and Oman, who applauded the move as an important step in securing regional stability.

Further afield, the agreement is being touted as a diplomatic coup for China, whose president Xi Jinping aspires to increase the perception of his country as a peacemaker and alternative to American leadership in a region where Washington casts a long shadow. China has played off Saudi frustration with American criticism of Riyadh's human rights abuses, and the relatively cold relationship between Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and President Joe Biden compared with that of former President Trump.

In the United States, reactions to the development have been mixed. John Kirby, a White House national security spokesperson, touted any move towards de-escalation as “in America’s interest.” But others see the successful mediation by Beijing as a threat to American influence, especially with longtime ally Saudi Arabia.

KEY TAKEAWAYS Saudi-Iranian normalization will dampen one of the main drivers of regional instability but will have little impact on the major frictions between Iran and both the U.S. and Israel. In the short to medium term, the agreement will likely hasten an end to the conflict in Yemen. This diplomatic achievement does come at the expense of Washington’s image in the Middle East; in the short-term, the U.S. will now be more keen on achieving foreign policy “wins” in the Middle East.

 

On 03 March 2023, four North Carolinian travelers crossed over to Matamoros, Mexico from Texas. Shortly after entering Mexico, their vehicle came under fire from Gulf cartel gunmen. The exact circumstances of the encounter remain unclear. However, it is possible the Americans were mistaken for Haitian smugglers, as some have suggested, or that they crashed their vehicle into a Gulf vehicle as the cartel gunmen were eluding police during a car chase. Either way, these Americans were in the wrong place at the wrong time. 

Israel | DRC/RWANDA

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travels. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates, including this monthly report.

 

West Bank, Jerusalem Heating Up amid Raid, Terrorist Attack

Israel is currently on high alert after a string of deadly attacks, including the attack on a synagogue in an East Jerusalem neighborhood on 27 January that killed at least seven people. The attack marked the deadliest terror incident in over a decade. It comes as tensions have increased dramatically in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip following an Israeli security raid in Jenin which led to the death of seven suspected Palestinian militants who were reportedly planning an attack.

The root of this is that the Palestinian Authority has lost control over the northern West Bank, including the city of Jenin. Israel is filling the security gap, which in turn is increasing the hostility and sense of desperation on the part of Palestinian youth. 

• Palestinian Authority has paused security cooperation with Israel.
• All the terrorists have been “lone wolves,” no terror organizations have claimed responsibility. Hence these attacks are organic and a reflection of the overall political situation.
• Israel has conducted numerous security operations to detain possible accomplices.
• Israeli police have increased their presence throughout Jerusalem. They are working to disperse potential rioters and those already becoming violent in various locations throughout Jerusalem.
• The Israeli Knesset is looking to fast track legislation to strip the residency and citizenship of terrorists and removing them to the territory of the Palestinian Authority.
• The recent violence highlights the need for secure transportation in Israel, and to take extra security precautions when traveling to Jerusalem and the West Bank in the near-term.

Despite widespread support among Palestinians for armed resistance, they have not yet mobilized on a large scale. However, two key factors have the potential to bring the Palestinian community together and ignite a new uprising: the Temple Mount and the situation of security prisoners. A significant visit by Israeli officials to the Temple Mount or a coordinated hunger strike by Palestinian prisoners could spark widespread mobilization for armed struggle.

Separately, the IDF is on high alert following the alleged Israeli attack in Isfahan, Iran on 28 January. The targeted Isfahan facility is a munitions depot that could be connected to Iran's growing missile production.

Iran and Israel are engaged in a “War Between Wars,” a shadow conflict where Israel seeks to limit the development of Iran’s advanced military capabilities (nuclear program, ballistic missile production, drone program, precision guided munitions) through clandestine and other non-attributable actions. Instead of responding directly, Iran uses its proxies in the Middle East to attack Israel or it attacks Israeli interests abroad, including plots on tourists, diplomats, and maritime attacks on Israeli-owned shipping companies. 

Iran is Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s primary foreign and security policy concern, and the attack on Isfahan comes on the heels of the largest ever joint U.S.-Israeli military exercise which simulated a joint attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. Together, these events foretell increased military actions against Iran to establish the credibility of the military option now that a revised nuclear agreement appears to be off the table. As these operations increase, so does the potential for blowback and escalation.

Iran response options:

• Cyber attacks
• Drone or missile attacks against Israeli interests in countries like Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen
• Attacks on U.S. interests in the Middle East (military forces Iraq and Syria or U.S. commercial interests in Iraq)
• Provoking Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad attacks against Israel

 

Risk of all out conflict rising

Tensions are flaring between the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Rwanda amid recent rebel and militant group violence in the border regions and could lead to an expansion of the conflict. Such a conflict could disrupt the global supply of cobalt and coltan which are vital for battery production. In addition, there are over six million internally displaced persons in the DRC. Further destabilization could also lead to a worsening humanitarian crisis and severe disease outbreaks, including Ebola.

There have been dozens of clashes, attacks, and battles in eastern and northeastern DRC since the M23 rebel group launched a renewed campaign in October 2022. They made significant gains in the DRC’s North Kivu province that prompted Congolese officials to expel Rwandan ambassador Vincent Karenga on 29 October. In response, Rwandan officials increased troop deployment to the border in anticipation of Congolese retaliatory attacks.

• The situation in eastern DRC highlights the need for proper travel and business continuity planning.
• All border regions in the DRC should be avoided.

Rwanda is accused of providing material support to the M23 group. At the same time, the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (FARDC) faces allegations of providing similar support to the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), a group fighting the Rwandan government. There are over 100 other groups operating in the region, further complicating the situation.

Recent Escalation

• 28 January 2023 - the Rwandan navy shot several rounds at a Congolese lake police post in Ibinja in the territory of Kalehe, South Kivu, on the Congolese-Rwandan border, during late evening hours on 28 January. No casualties were reported.

• 24 January 2023 - a Congolese fighter jet was hit by a Rwandan missile while flying over Goma, North Kivu – which is situated on the DRC-Rwanda border. The jet landed at Goma Airport (GOM/FZNA) without reports of casualties. Rwandan authorities indicated they took defensive measures after the Congolese jet allegedly violated its airspace.
• 28 December 2022 - An explosive device targeted a Congolese fighter jet over Lake Kivu, at the Rwanda border. No group claimed immediate responsibility for the attack.
  
• 29 November 2022 - At least 272 people were killed in Kishishe, Rutshuru territory, North Kivu, in a suspected M23 militant attack amid clashes among M23 militants, FARDC soldiers, Mai-Mai militia, and Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) rebels.

Context

There is not one singular conflict in eastern Congo but rather a web of interconnected conflicts with roots in the 1994 Rwandan Genocide and other post-colonial ethnic dynamics. The Rwandan Genocide created a mass refugee crisis in the African Great Lakes Region with over 1.5 million ethnic Tutsis and over one million ethnic Hutus fleeing to eastern Zaire (currently the DRC) and forming opposing armed groups in Congo’s North Kivu, South Kivu, and Ituri provinces.

Ethnic conflict in the DRC is exacerbated by the area’s vast resource wealth, as well as by regional interstate competition. Rwanda, Burundi, and Uganda all maintain spheres of influence in the portion of eastern DRC that they border. The region’s instability, the weakness of the central government, and conflicting external interests helped foment the First and Second Congo Wars.

Current State

After being defeated in 2013, M23 reemerged and began launching attacks against the Congolese government in November 2021. M23’s revival coincides with events contributing to Rwanda’s growing isolation and a deterioration in its zero-sum competition with its neighbors. Uganda and Burundi – who Kigali considers hostile – are being allowed to pursue their security, economic, and political interests in DRC while it cannot. In addition, plans for a new road linking Goma, DRC to Kampala, Uganda, will also bypass Rwanda which will minimize Kigali’s central role in regional commerce.

In March and April 2022, M23 fighters took control over key parts of Rutshuru territory, bordering Uganda and Rwanda in North Kivu, raided a Congolese military camp, and allegedly downed a UN helicopter. The offensive escalated in May with the capture of the Congolese military’s main headquarters in North Kivu and its march towards the regional hub, Goma.

These attacks prompted Congolese President, Felix Tshisekedi to bar M23 from the most recent round of peace talks with the DRC’s various rebel groups and give it a terror designation. In June 2022, a Congolese soldier crossed the Rwandan border and fired at Rwandan soldiers, escalating tensions between the neighboring countries. Earlier in the year, Rwandan President Kagame warned that Rwanda may intervene in DRC without Kinshasa’s consent.

A 25 November 2022 ceasefire brokered between DRC and Rwandan officials was accepted by M23, however the group has continued to take territory and clash with the Congolese military.

KEY TAKEWAYS While still improbable, the risk of open conflict between the DRC and Rwanda rises with every rebel group attack and incident involving official military personnel. The DRC has many security issues occupying its resources and Rwanda would risk further regional isolation if it invaded its neighbor. Yet both presidents are using increasingly belligerent language, possibly intended to prepare the populations for military action. Given the tension and current ground setting taking place, an errant Congolese rocket that falls in Rwanda or an intentional attack on a Rwandan arms transfer to M23 could be used to justify a Rwandan military operation within a hostile DRC.

 

Three powerful earthquakes devastated southern Turkey and northern Syria on 06 February 2023. The death toll is rapidly rising with 1,500 deaths recorded so far in Turkey and over 800 in Syria as rescuers race to pull survivors from beneath the rubble.

A magnitude 7.8 earthquake located 14 miles (23 kilometers) east of Nurdağı, Turkey struck at approximately 3:17 AM local time. Another earthquake, reportedly magnitude 7.7, occurred approximately 60 miles (100 kilometers) north of the initial quake at 1:43 PM local time. At 4:15 PM local time, a magnitude 6.0 earthquake struck in the northwestern quadrant of Kahramanmaraş Province.

Turkey estimates over 7,000 injuries and the United States Geological Services (USGS) estimates that up to 10,000 casualties are possible. The initial earthquake was followed by up to 78 aftershocks, the largest of which had a magnitude of 6.7 and was located 14 miles (23 km) west-southwest of Osmaniye, Turkey. The quake was reportedly felt in Egypt, Lebanon, Iraq, northern Cyprus, Greece, and Syria. Flight operations have been suspended at Kahramanmaraş (KCM), Hatay (HTY) and Gaziantep Oğuzeli (GZT) airports. Unrelatedly, hundreds of flights to Sabiha Gokcen International Airport (SAW) in Istanbul have been canceled due to inclement weather. The UK, Israel, and Pakistan are sending search and rescue teams to Turkey as recovery operations continue. Fatalities and casualties are expected to rise as more people are identified in the rubble. 

Impact

The earthquake has affected Gaziantep, Kahramanmaras, Hatay, Osmaniye, Adiyaman, Malatya, Sanliurfa, Adana, Diyarbakir, and Kilis provinces in Turkey and Aleppo, Hama, and Latakia governorates in Syria.

Turkey

• A gas pipeline explosion and fire have been reported in Topbogazi and operations at Ceyhan BTC oil pipeline terminals have been temporarily suspended.
• The runway at Hatay Airport (HTY) has been severely damaged.
• Building collapses were reported in Osmaniye (34+), (Malatya 130), Hatay (two hospitals, unspecified other buildings), and an unspecified number in  Gaziantep, Kahramanmaras, and Diyarbakir provinces.

Due to the possibility of further damage by possible aftershocks, all individuals in the areas are urged to evacuate from buildings that have been affected by the earthquakes. Further disruptions to the affected areas are expected as emergency services respond and more infrastructure fails. 

Bodycam footage showing the beating death of Tyre Nichols at the hands of five Memphis, TN police officers is expected to be released in the coming days, possibly as early as this afternoon (Thursday 26 Jan). Police departments, private businesses, and civilian leadership are gearing up across the country for possible unrest in reaction to the video.

Context

• Tyre Nichols was beaten by five Memphis police officers following a traffic stop on 07 January 2023. He died from his injuries in hospital three days later.
• The officers involved were fired by the Memphis Police Department on 20 January following an internal investigation. 
• Criminal charges may yet be filed against the officers, as the City of Memphis is reportedly seeking a Grand Jury indictment against the officers involved. The footage is likely to be released if and when the indictment moves forward.

Outlook

• Previous incidents of police brutality have led to both localized and widespread unrest in the U.S., most notably during the summer of 2020 following the death of George Floyd at the hands of Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin, who was convicted of his murder.
• Anecdotal reports indicate the footage is likely to cause a significant reaction.
• There are reports that large police departments, including the Chicago Police Department, are cancelling regular days off and going to extended shifts in anticipating of potential unrest.

MEXICO | CHINA | BRAZIL | PERU

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travels. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates, including this monthly report.

 

Violence Surges Amid Capture of El Chapo’s Son and Major Prison Break

The first two weeks of this month saw major cartel violence erupt first in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua and then in Culiacan, Sinaloa. The violent clashes, including shootouts, vehicle blockades, fires, and car-jackings, followed the armed commando attack of a prison in Juarez (Cereso No. 3) and the arrest of Ovidio Guzman, son of El Chapo, in Culiacan. These latest events in a series of violent incidents underscore the omnipresent but growing risk of violence in Mexico, and the need for low-profile, secure transportation for travel within the country. 

On 05 January 2023, upwards of 3,500 security personnel took part in an operation to arrest Ovidio Guzman, son of Sinaloa Cartel drug lord Joaquin ‘El Chapo’ Guzman. Most were deployed to contain the aftermath of the arrest, which saw forces loyal to Guzman clash with police and military, engaging in shootouts in Culiacan and other cities across Sinaloa. Cartel gunmen hijacked vehicles and set them ablaze, firebombed buildings, and erected roadblocks across the state. Police closed all roads in and out of the city. At least 19 cartel gunmen were killed, 21 others arrested, and 35 soldiers injured in the chaos, dubbed “Culiacanazo 2.0.”

• The violence resulted in operational disruptions at multiple airports, including at Culiacán International Airport (MMCL/CUL), Los Mochis International Airport (MMLM/LMM), Mazatlan International Airport (MMMZ/MZT) and Sonora’s Ciudad Obregón International Airport (MMCN/CEN).
• Ovidio Guzman had previously been arrested in 2019 and released after cartel gunmen laid siege to his detention center in Culiacan and caused chaos across the city, the first so-called “Culiacanazo” or Battle for Culiacan.
• Guzman is now in custody at a high-security facility in Mexico City, and there are concerns his presence could lead to violence in the capital.

On 01 January 2023, armed commandos, believed to be associated with the Sinaloa Cartel, attacked Cereso No. 3, leading to a prison riot and death of 17 people, at least ten of which were guards. At least 30 people escaped, including ‘El Neto’, the leader of the Los Mexicles street gang. He was considered one of the main drivers of violence inside the prison and has influenced violence outside the prison. He was killed after clashing with police following the jailbreak.

• Los Mexicles – previously associated with “La Linea”, the armed wing of the Juarez Cartel and now associated with the “New People” of the Sinaloa Cartel.
• Sinaloa Cartel – factions led by the sons of ‘El Chapo’ and those loyal to Ismael ‘El Mayo’ Zambada continue to clash across Mexico.

Global Guardian recommends low-profile, secure transportation for all travel within Mexico. At this time, we also advise against non-essential travel to Sinaloa state.

Flashback to August 2022

09-10 August 2022 – Overnight violence erupted in Guadalajara and Guanajuato after the attempted arrest of high-ranking CJNG member "El Doble R" on 09 August. Cartel members clashed with security forces, set fire to convenience stores, and set several vehicles ablaze to prevent the passage of security forces. At least three people were killed, 19 vehicles destroyed, and eleven suspects arrested.

11 August 2022 – At least 10 people were killed in Ciudad Juárez after suspected cartel members attacked multiple fast-food restaurants and convenience stores. The attacks were linked to deadly gang clashes that occurred at a Ciudad Juárez prison (Cereso No. 3) earlier in the day.

12-13 August 2022 – Overnight cartel violence broke out across northern Baja California, including in Tijuana, Mexicali, Ensenada, and Rosarito. Multiple vehicles, including buses and taxis, were car-jacked and set ablaze, forming burning blockades. It is believed that CJNG members carried out the blockades in response to the attempted arrest of "El Doble R" in Guadalajara several days before. At least 17 people were arrested in connection with the burning blockades. 

Impact

As a result of the violence in Baja California in August 2022, the Mexican Army sent 350 soldiers and National Guard personnel to Tijuana and across Baja California to help shore up security. It is likely that many of the 3,500 security personnel deployed to Sinaloa following the arrest of Guzman will remain in the state to help stabilize the situation. Likewise, Juarez is likely to receive a substantial deployment of federal security.

Outlook

There are rumors that the ‘El Mayo’ side of the Sinaloa cartel may have tipped off security forces to Guzman’s location in Culiacan. If true, or if believed to be true, this could lead to further fracturing and additional violence between ‘El Mayo’ and ‘Los Chapitos’ (sons of El Chapo). A cartel war similar to the bloody conflict over Juarez in 2008 could materialize, with violence likely across western Mexico, including in Sinaloa, Sonora, Baja California, Chihuahua, and Durango.

Should war break out, other organized criminal groups such as CJNG could take advantage of the dysfunction within Sinaloa and make offensive moves into new territories, reshaping the cartel control map and leading to additional violence. Violence in these areas has potential to disrupt operations, including shipping, especially in major border crossing locations such as Tijuana and Juarez, where cross-border trade makes up a large share of road traffic.

 

COVID-19 Surges as Government Ends COVID-Zero

The abrupt ending of China’s COVID-zero policy has unleashed an unprecedented surge of infections and various countries have now reintroduced pre-travel COVID-19 test requirements and China-travel bans. With the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday (22 January-01 February) around the corner, the COVID situation in China is poised to deteriorate. With China now open to the rest of the world, it is possible that new variants will emerge and that supply chain issues will again disrupt the production and movement of goods from China to the rest of the world.

On 07 December 2022, China began to end its COVID-zero policy, shuttering its state quarantine facilities, abandoning its mass testing regime, and on 21 December it ended the use of its tracking app. In a leaked internal document, Chinese officials surmised that upwards of 250 million citizens may have contracted the virus in the first three weeks of December. The government opened China to tourism on 08 January 2022, ending quarantine and similarly announced that it will no longer impose large-scale lockdowns and movement restrictions. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) estimates that between 300,000 and 700,000 in China will die from COVID by April and up to 1.5 million by the end of 2023. We do not expect China’s COVID-19 wave to peak until April 2023.

In response to the epidemiological crisis in China, the following countries have instituted precautionary measures to slow down the potential transmission of new un-sequenced variants—though epidemiologists in the U.S. and Europe do not expect the COVID-19 surge in China to lead to a dramatic uptick in cases at home given the high levels of immunity within the population at this point.

 

• For firms with offices in China, Global Guardian recommends procuring ibuprofen, acetaminophen, naproxen, and cold medication to provide to employees who fall ill. Hospital systems outside of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen may struggle to contend with the surge of patients.
• Firms with travelers going to and from China should contingency plan for the event that staff will not be able to board flights after contracting COVID.
• For larger firms, we also recommend purchasing medical supplies now as we expect global shortages in the coming months as China may move to block certain medical exports of goods and precursors.

China’s COVID Surge Explained

With a refusal to import effective foreign-made mRNA vaccines, two and a half years of draconian lockdowns, and high rates of vaccine hesitancy among the elderly—the most vulnerable demographic—China’s population is what epidemiologists call “COVID naïve.” That is, the population was almost entirely unexposed to the virus: domestically made vaccines were less effective at creating antibodies and any vaccine-immunity has waned since China’s 2021 vaccination drive. Hence, a low-immunity population—whose youth have experienced lockdown fatigue—was suddenly thrust back into in-person gatherings at scale, prompting what is likely the most rapid growth of cases since the start of the pandemic. 

Knock-on Effects

Tens or even hundreds of millions of infections provide an opportunity for the virus to further mutate. Since the introduction of the Delta variant, the subsequent variants and subvariants have become less harmful but more contagious. However, with the world’s most populous country essentially acting as a giant incubator it is uncertain how SARS-CoV-2 will evolve. There is a non-zero chance that new variants of concern with novel characteristics could emerge by the spring. The threat of a new variant is compounded by China’s lack of transparency and refusal to share data. 

As the pandemic rages through Chinese society, we can expect employees to fall ill, disrupting operations at factories, ports, and other places of work. Freight booking cancellations and port congestion are already increasing. Moreover, should Shanghai or Beijing’s hospital capacity begin to dwindle, it is possible that the central government may make an about face turn and reinstitute lockdowns. The bottom line is that supply-chain issues emanating from China are lurking ahead in the coming months.   
 

Key Takeaways With the Chinese Lunar New Year just weeks away, China is ostensibly experiencing millions or even tens of millions of new cases of COVID per day and supply chain issues are already beginning to mount. China is now open for travel, but those traveling to China should have a plan in case they contract COVID-19.

Bolsonaristas Storm Brazil’s Congress

On 08 January, supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro stormed Brazil’s government plaza in Brasilia, demanding that the election victory of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be overturned by the military and that the leftwing leader be imprisoned. While Brazil’s democratic institutions are holding strong, the aftershocks of this acute political event will be felt for months. We anticipate the subsequent investigations to further exacerbate political tensions and lead to unrest.

At approximately 2:40 pm local time, protesters breached police lines at Praça dos Três Poderes (Three Powers Plaza) in Brasília. In a highly organized manner, over 3,000 bolsonaristas broke in and vandalized the National Congress, Federal Supreme Court (STF), and Presidential Palace buildings. The rioters built barricades with furniture inside occupied buildings and 46 rioters and two police were injured in the ensuing clashes. Police and federal law enforcement officers cleared the area around 6:00 pm local time.

In the aftermath, the Federal Supreme Court ordered the removal of Brasília Governor Ibaneis Rocha for 90 days alleging security flaws and the removal of all protest encampments outside military facilities nationwide. At least 1,200 people have been detained and President da Silva has vowed to launch a full-scale investigation and go after those involved in the insurrection’s planning, funding, and execution.

Massive pro-democracy demonstrations broke out across Brazil in response to the insurrection, showcasing a very public and powerful rebuke of the bolsonaristas.

Analysis

From the initial video and anecdotal reports, it appears that this putsch was well organized, and that law enforcement was conspicuously slow in responding. With organization comes funding, begging the question: who paid, and did they have any connection to former President Bolsonaro? Indeed, Bolsonaro’s own involvement is unknown, as he was in Florida at the time and quickly distanced himself on social media from his supporters who stormed Congress.

The other important question to be addressed is whether the security response was indicative of negligence or tacit complicity. Allegedly, the head of the Senate police’s calls for reinforcements to the governor were ignored for hours before the order was given to clear the site of rioters.

Lula’s forthcoming investigation brings its own risks. If members of the security establishment are found to have been involved, arrests of high-ranking police and military officials will further erode trust in government and may even prompt violent resistance.

Looking Forward

• Unrest is likely to continue in the near term as President Lula, who was inaugurated last week, will be under pressure to crack down on the bolsonaristas and as the pro-Bolsanaro supporters continue to disrupt transportation arteries in Brazil's center and periphery. 
• The results of the federal investigation will be a political flashpoint no matter the conclusions.
• The federal investigation could be used as a political weapon to go after those suspected of being loyal to the former president. This in turn, could further threaten political stability.
• Monitor the situation for upcoming protest activity. Global Guardian’s Intelligence Team can help identify planned protests ahead of trips to Brazil.
• Avoid all protests and concentrations of security forces. Anticipate heightened security and associated disruptions at all future protest sites. Plot route bypasses.
  
  

KEY TAKEAWAYS Brazil has just endured its own J6 incident. While the acute crisis has subsided, the arrests and upcoming investigation will likely promote further unrest and political instability in the near and medium term. Travelers to major cities in Brazil should be mindful to avoid demonstrations as they can turn violent.

 

Rising Instability as Castillo Supporters and Government Resume Clashes

Following a brief respite over the holidays, the situation in Peru continues to deteriorate. Clashes between supporters of the recently ousted President Pedro Castillo and Peruvian security forces have resulted in the deaths of more than 43 people since 07 December. The violence has also injured hundreds of protesters and dozens of police and led to the indefinite suspension of rail service to large parts of the country. Acting President Dina Boluarte has declared a state of emergency bolstering the presence of security forces in Lima and other cities. We expect a continued decline in Peru’s stability until elections are held in December of 2023 or the government comes to an accommodation with Castillo’s supporters.

The demonstrations have caused severe disruptions to travel throughout the country. Protesters have established a series of roadblocks on 13 main highways in the departments of Puno, Cusco, Arequipa, Madre de Dios, Apurimac, Ucayali, and Tacna. Pro-Castillo supporters have also stormed or attempted to storm airports across several regions, and thousands of tourists have been evacuated from sites like Machu Picchu after being stranded by transportation disruptions.

• Global Guardian advises against any non-essential travel to Peru, especially to rural regions in the south and the areas surrounding Puno, where Castillo supporters have established a series of blockades.
• Global Guardian strongly recommends the use of low-profile secure transportation for essential travel within Peru.

Analysis

Pedro Castillo came to power as a political outsider in July 2021 with a razor thin margin. On 07 December 2022, faced with the third attempted impeachment since his inauguration, Castillo attempted to dissolve congress and set up a provisional system of rule by decree. However, Congress successfully removed Castillo from office, charged him with rebellion and conspiracy, and installed his former vice president Dina Boluarte as President. Castillo’s supporters took to the streets in Lima and across the country demanding his release, an accelerated election schedule, the dissolution of Congress, the resignation of Boluarte, and constitutional reform.

Representatives of left-wing civil groups and labor unions have indicated that they will continue to organize demonstrations until, at a minimum, Boluarte’s resignation is obtained. In the eyes of Castillo supporters, Boluarte is a usurper and Congress has subverted the democratic will of the nation. From the pro-government perspective, Castillo’s move was unlawful and constituted the first step toward a dictatorship. The difficulty in reconciling these viewpoints could lead to prolonged instability.

Notable Events

07 December 2022 – Castillo unsuccessfully attempts to dissolve Congress, is removed from office, and is arrested. Protests begin in Lima.

09 December 2022 – Protests expand throughout the country and clashes with security forces intensify. Several hundred protesters attempting to reach the Congress building are pushed back by police.

14 December 2022 – Acting President Boluarte declares a state of emergency and announces the possibility of holding early elections in December 2023.

15 December 2022 – At least seven people are killed in clashes between protesters and military personnel in the city of Ayocucho. Security forces use live ammunition.

03 January 2023 – Civil groups and labor unions based in the historically left-wing southern regions of Peru announce the resumption of demonstrations.

10 January 2023 – A curfew is declared for Puno amid demonstrations.

Looking Forward

So far, the government has ceded relatively little in relation to the protesters’ demands. If Castillo is found guilty of rebellion, elections are postponed, or the government begins to crack down on protests more violently, the situation could rapidly descend into more open violence. However, if the government and protesters are able to reach a compromise position and concrete steps toward constitutional reform are made, the situation will likely stabilize. Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, and Bolivia have issued a joint statement in support of Castillo and could increase international pressure on Peru in the event that Boluarte’s government moves to imprison him indefinitely.

KEY TAKEAWAYS Peru is trapped in a cycle of political instability that can only be escaped through meaningful constitutional reform. Reform that will be difficult to achieve without buy-in from Peru’s largely leftist rural population. While it is possible that Peru comes out of this episode on track for long-term stability, in the short term, Peru’s political and security risks are rising.

 

On 08 January at 2:40 pm local time, over 3,000 protesters stormed Brazil’s National Congress, Federal Supreme Court (STF), and Presidential Palace buildings in Brasília in support of Former President Jair Bolsonaro. In an event reminiscent of the 06 January Capitol riot, protestors vandalized the Congresso Nacional building, ransacked President Lula’s office, and allegedly stole computers. The protesters called for a military coup d’état, demanding that the election victory of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be overturned and the leftwing leader be imprisoned.

Unrest 

• Rioters attempted to build barricades with furniture inside occupied buildings.
• Police and federal law enforcement officers cleared the area around 6:00 pm local time.
• 46 rioters and two police were injured in clashes.
• Police arrested up to 400 rioters.
• In a related event, armed pro-Bolsanaro supporters blocked highway BR-163 in Mato Grosso state.

Aftermath

• President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva placed the Ministry of Justice in control over the Federal District through at least 31 January.
• The Federal Supreme Court ordered the removal of Brasília Governor Ibaneis Rocha for 90 days alleging security flaws and that all protest encampments outside military facilities nationwide, including Army Headquarters on Praça dos Cristais in Brasília, be vacated within 24 hours.
• On 09 January, at least 1,200 people were detained by Federal Police in front of Army headquarters in Brasília; detainees are being taken to police headquarters for processing.
• Bolsonaristas blocked Marginal Tietê highway in São Paulo in the morning hours of 09 January.
  
  

OUTLOOK

• Unrest is likely to continue in the near term as President Lula, who was inaugurated last week, will be under pressure to crack down on the Bolsonaristas and as the pro-Bolsanaro supporters continue to disrupt transportation arteries in Brazil's center and periphery. 
• Pro-democracy rallies will be held nationwide in evening hours local time on 09 January in São Paulo (MASP, Largo de São Francisco), Rio de Janeiro (Cinelândia), Salvador (Campo Grande), Porto Alegre (Esquina Democrática), Santa Maria (Praça Saldanha Marinho), Manaus (Largo de São Sebastião), Belo Horizonte (Praça Sete de Setembro), Curitiba (Praça Santos Andrade), São Luís (Praça Deodoro), Florianópolis (Largo da Alfândega), Campinas (Largo do Rosário)
• Anticipate heightened security and associated disruptions at all protest sites. Plot route bypasses. Avoid all protests and concentrations of security forces.