The following analysis is part of Global Guardian's 2023 Risk Assessment Map. To explore and download the map, click here.

IMPACT

A military conflict over the Taiwan Strait would have a disastrous impact on the global economy. The primary sectors impacted would include container shipping, manufacturing, and semiconductors. But the second-and third-order impacts would be dire and difficult to calculate. Chief among them would be a total decoupling of the U.S. and Chinese economies.

On 10 October, Russia launched more than 80 missiles, dozens of kamikaze drones, and artillery at civilian targets, in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, Lviv, and elsewhere (map below). The strikes targeted critical infrastructure, knocking out power in multiple areas, including Kyiv. At least 11 civilians have reportedly been killed, with dozens more injured. Today's strikes are the first time Russia has targeted Kyiv and western Ukraine in months and mark the widest-ranging strikes on Ukraine since the opening hours of the conflict.    

The strikes were likely coordinated by Russian Air Force Gen. Sergei Surovikin, who was recently named as commander of all Russian troops in Ukraine. Surovikin is known for overseeing the bombardment of Aleppo.   

The mass missile strikes are in retaliation for an apparent truck bombing of the Kerch Strait bridge linking Crimea to Russia, likely carried out by Ukrainian special operatives on 08 September. Parts of the bridge were destroyed; heavy trucks will not be permitted until repairs are made. The attack is highly symbolic, as it represents the only physical link between Russia and Crimea and is an important symbol for President Putin who devoted significant political capital towards its construction.

• Kyiv Targets
  
  
  • Shevchenkivskyi and Solomianskyi districts.
  • The "Glass Bridge" in central Kyiv
  • The Philharmonic building, Kahnenko and Shevchenko museums, and Shevchenko Park were damaged by nearby strikes.
  • An intersection near the National University complex.
• Key energy infrastructure in Lviv, Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Ternopil regions were damaged and residents have experienced associated disruptions to power, heating, and internet services.
• Train service throughout the country may experience cancellations and delays due to damaged overhead lines.
• The waterworks in Kharkiv were shut down due to damage sustained in strikes.

ANALYSIS

• The Russian strikes are meant to act as a show-of-force deterrent to further Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure. 
• The appointment of Gen. Surovikin sends a clear message that Russia may take a more brutal approach to the conflict, especially when it comes to airstrikes and the targeting of critical civilian infrastructure deeper inside Ukraine.

LOOKING AHEAD

• There is renewed concern over Belarussian involvement in the conflict. President Lukashenko said earlier today that Ukraine was preparing an attack on Belarus. Such an incident would almost certainly be a false-flag event meant to justify Belarussian involvement. 
  
  
• Its entry into the conflict could help as a stopgap measure to augment Russia's highly depleted forces. Furthermore, we could soon see more Russian attacks on Kyiv and western Ukraine emanating from Belarus. 
• This news comes amid fresh reports of Russian troops entering Belarus by train.
   
• A renewed push into northern Ukraine from Belarus in the coming days or weeks is now possible.

UKRAINE | ARMENIA-AZERBAIJAN | KYRGYZSTAN-TAJIKISTAN | SWEDEN

In Global Guardian's new monthly Risk Barometer, our team of intelligence analysts will brief on current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travels. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates, including this monthly report.

 

WAR ENTERS NEW AND MORE DANGEROUS PHASE

Russia’s response to the Ukrainian counter-offensive has ushered in a new and more dangerous phase of the war. As Russia races to replenish its depleted forces along the frontlines, President Putin is simultaneously employing three tools: partial mobilization, energy warfare on Europe, and nuclear brinksmanship to wrestle back the momentum of the war. There is a real danger, albeit with a low likelihood, of the use of a tactical nuclear weapon, should Ukraine make significant strategic gains before winter weather plays a factor and newly mobilized Russian reinforcements arrive.

In September, the Armed Forces of Ukrainian conducted a major offensive in the northeastern Kharkiv region. Through effective planning and execution, and with the help of new western supplied hardware and U.S. intelligence, Ukrainian forces liberated approximately 10,608km² of territory, including over 400 towns. On 03 October, Ukraine captured the strategic of town of Lyman in Donetsk which was a massive military blow to the Russian war effort and marks the first settlement now claimed by Russia that Ukraine has retaken. Strategically, with Lyman now under its control, Ukraine can now march towards Svatove, which will serve as a gateway to rest of Luhansk. Meanwhile in the south, Ukrainian forces have made many gains in Kherson oblast on the west bank of the Dnipro and are poised to rout the 15,000 Russian defenders there.

In response to the slew of battlefield losses, Putin announced the partial mobilization of up to 300,000 Russian citizens with specialist training and military experience on 21 September, though other accounts suggest the mobilization is much wider. In conjunction with the mobilization, Russia formally annexed Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk, and Donetsk oblasts on 30 September following what have been described as sham referenda. Reports of up to 700,000 Russians have fled the country in the last two weeks to avoid conscription, and protests against the mobilization have occurred throughout the country.

• The U.S. and other governments have warned that all dual citizens in Russia may be drafted and should depart immediately.
• The rapidly devolving situation underscores the need for geopolitical intelligence briefings.

Analysis

The annexation of the four Ukrainian oblasts were meant to dissuade Kyiv from continuing its counter-offensive and convince its Western benefactors that continued financial and material support for Ukraine can lead to a more severe Russian response as Russia will now see Ukraine as attacking its territory. Putin’s threat to use “all means” is a tacit threat to use nuclear weapons, as Russian nuclear doctrine provides for the use of nuclear weapons if Russian soil is attacked.

Ukraine’s counteroffensive made Russia choose between defending its newly-occupied territory in the east (the Donbas) or the south as it did not have the manpower to repel Ukraine on both fronts. Russia prioritized the south and Ukraine was able to rapidly punch through Russia’s lines in parts of the Donbas. Russia’s current imperative is to prevent Ukraine from crossing the Dnipro River in Kherson before winter and reinforcements arrive. Putin will use any means at his disposal to accomplish this.

Evaluating the Nuclear Threat

On 04 October, the city of Kyiv began to distribute potassium iodine pills in preparation for a possible Russian nuclear attack. While unlikely still, the risk of a nuclear event has increased. In descending order, below are the possible scenarios:

Nuclear Test

• Aim: demonstrate resolve and willingness to employ tactical nuclear devices on the battlefield.
• Place the onus on NATO to respond to create a win-win scenario: either NATO elects to escalate, vindicating Putin’s worldview and justifying placing Russia on war footing, or NATO deescalates using sanctions or other non-kinetic means.
• Possible target: uninhabited area at high altitude in the Black Sea or in Siberia.

Low-Yield Tactical Nuclear Detonation

• Aim: freeze Ukrainian battleground gains. It would likely need to happen all at once and there would need to be sufficiently concentrated Ukrainian forces for the attack to be worth the cost.
• In order to take a such a risk, Russia would need to be close to losing areas of paramount strategic and symbolic importance, including combinations of Crimea and the cities of Donetsk or Luhansk.

Nuclear Attack on Kyiv

• Aim: to shock the Ukrainian government into surrender.
• This is a highly unlikely scenario for several reasons to include probable confrontation with NATO, fomenting domestic dissent, and alienating Russia from its few partners.

 

Caucuses Flare Up Indicates Potential for Wider Azerbaijani-Armenian Conflict

Azerbaijan’s recent incursion into Armenia proper represents the biggest escalation in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict since the 2020 war. The outcome of the ongoing peace talks will have considerable implications for the security and stability of the region. If an agreement is not reached in the next month, renewed fighting—including full-scale war—is possible. Renewed fighting has the potential to affect an energy corridor that runs from the Caspian Sea to Europe which has become an increasingly important alternative to Russian energy since the invasion of Ukraine.

On 13 September, Azerbaijan conducted an assault on Armenia’s southern border regions with shelling and fighting affecting the cities of Vardenis, Sotk, Artanish, Ishkhanasar, Goris and Kapan. More than 200 Armenians, mostly soldiers, were killed in the clashes, making this flare up the deadliest since the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War. Violence on the border was accompanied by demonstrations in Armenia’s capital Yerevan where protesters and opposition leaders have been calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Pashinyan’s opponents are critical of the government’s efforts to reach a peace deal with Azerbaijan which they characterize as appeasement.

• Western embassies have advised their personnel not to travel to the Armenian provinces of Syunik, Vayots Dzor, southern Gegharkunik, the village of Yeraskh, and the main road connecting Yerevan to Tbilisi through the Tavush region.
• Monitoring the political situation in Armenia and pre-trip intelligence is recommended ahead of travel to Yerevan.

Context

The conflict is rooted in security, ethnicity, and historical grievance. The Nagorno Karabakh region comprises the eastern portion of the Armenian plateau, making it a naturally defensible border, and has an ethnically Armenian majority. Upon the dissolution of the Soviet Union, calls within the region for unification with Armenia developed into a full-scale war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. This resulted in a painful and humiliating defeat for Azerbaijan which lost 16% of its territory to de facto Armenian control and saw more than 750,000 of its people displaced.

Current Azerbaijani president Ilhan Aliyev has relied on the anti-Armenian sentiment and revanchism inspired by this defeat to foster domestic support for his regime. Anti-Armenian rhetoric in Azerbaijan has manifested in the desecration of Armenian cultural sites and official denial of the Armenian genocide. Azerbaijani forces have also been accused of war crimes—in both this latest incursion as well as the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war—including the torture and execution of prisoners. The most recent Azerbaijani incursion into Armenia proper represents a significant escalation in the conflict as previous military action had been confined to Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan asserts that its most recent actions were a response to Armenian provocations but have not supplied any supporting evidence for its claim.

Looking Forward

Russia and the EU are independently brokering peace deals while the U.S. has urged Azerbaijan to stand down, but if an agreement is not reached in the next month, renewed fighting—including a full-scale war—is possible. Azerbaijan has few reasons not to press their advantages which include the support of Turkey, a distracted Russia, and energy leverage over Europe. The Caucuses represent the only existing corridor through which central Asian and Caspian oil and gas can reach Europe given recent Russian energy embargoes. While the U.S. appears eager to fill the power vacuum left by Russia, it is yet unclear whether Washington is willing to exert sufficient pressure on Baku to avert escalation.

Key Takeaways The most recent Azerbaijani incursion into Armenia proper represents an escalation in the conflict that could foreshadow the resumption of war. A wider conflict has the potential to threaten the increasingly important pipelines that run from the oil and gas reservoirs of the Caspian and central Asia to the European energy market. The United States has signaled an intention to fill the role of peacemaker in the region as Russia is embroiled in Ukraine; however, the U.S. has little leverage to exercise.

 

Border Wars in a Post-Russian Central Asia

While further escalation along the Kyrzgzstan-Tajikistan border is unlikely in the short-term, hope for long term solutions is limited in the current political climate. The most recent clash’s involvement of regular military units and ethno-nationalist rhetoric in both countries represents an escalation from previous border clashes and indicates the potential for future skirmishes to grow into more significant conflicts. A wider border war could threaten foreign investments and personnel in the region.

More than 100 people were killed and nearly 137,000 evacuated during clashes between the two central Asian republics in mid-September. Both sides accused the other of escalation in a two-day border conflict which included the use of heavy weapons such as tanks, artillery, and drones in addition to small arms. More than 300 civilian structures were damaged or destroyed during the fighting, and the Batken airport (БАТ) in Kyrgyzstan was shelled. Fighting has stopped as the two sides agreed on a ceasefire effective on 18 September.

• Do not travel to the region surrounding the Vorukh enclave.
• Monitoring the political situation in the region and pre-travel intelligence is recommended ahead of trips to border areas.

Context

While the ceasefire has held thus far, the underlying causes of the conflict have yet to be addressed. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan were born out of the nationality policies enacted under Soviet leadership in the 1920’s. During the Soviet era, the border between the two states was largely symbolic, as Kyrgyz, Tajik, and other resident peoples had common access to resources—principally water and pastureland—in and around the border region. Today, competition for resources is exacerbated by poorly delineated borders that were made intentionally convoluted by Josef Stalin. Nearly half of the 600-mile Kyrgyz-Tajik border is disputed.

Civilian disputes over water and grazing pasture often escalate into armed conflicts between border guards and regular army units. Confrontations over resources also occurred in 2004, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014, 2015, and 2021. Tajikistanis and Kyrgyzstanis living upstream of one another will block canals and streams flowing across the border in response to perceived grievances, thus exacerbating the conflict and weaponizing the water supply itself.

Strategic Implications

As Russia—the traditional peace broker in such post-Soviet disputes—loses international standing, the formerly Soviet republics may come under increased Chinese influence, especially in light of the region’s importance to China’s Belt-and-Road Initiative (BRI). The United States also has commercial and counter-terror interests in the region and could take advantage of Russian absence in its historical sphere of influence.

The weaponization of water and failure to develop lasting solutions to resource disputes indicates a potential source of conflict in the nearby Fergana valley, one of the most densely populated regions in the world. The area is already prone to border conflicts involving Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, as well as Uzbekistan. If resource management agreements do not materialize, these disputes threaten to exacerbate and amplify any other destabilizing factors that affect the region.

KEY TAKEAWAYS The border conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan does not pose a significant threat of escalation in the short term, but the root causes of tension in the region—issues of resource management and the artificial borders—show no signs of dissipating. The degradation of Russian influence in the region is creating a vacuum that both the United States and China have strategic interests in filling.

 

Swedish General Election Outcome Underscores Growing Travel Risk in Sweden

Sweden’s recent election of a right-wing coalition comes as the population has become frustrated by surging levels of gang violence, specifically gun crime and bombings. While most of the violence is conducted between rival criminal organizations, recent bomb scares at popular events and shootings in central and southern Sweden highlight the danger to travelers.

On 11 September, a right-wing coalition led by the Moderate Party ended eight years of Social Democrat control through a campaign that centered on law and order. Center-left parties had consistently led in the polls in the run up to the election, but two high-profile shootings just before voting day saw a dramatic spike in the popularity of the far-right Sweden-Democrats party. The new ruling coalition is likely to take a harder line on immigration and augment police budgets and powers.

Precipitating Events

On 19 August, a man was killed and a woman wounded in a gang-related shooting in a popular shopping center south of Malmö. On 26 August, a woman and her child were wounded in the crossfire of a gang shootout in Eskilstuna in central Sweden. A few days earlier, on 21 August, a bag with an “unknown object” was found near Café Opera in Kungsträdgården, central Stockholm, during the final night of a major cultural festival. The bag was safely cordoned and detonated by the police causing a large explosion, and confirming fears that the bag contained a substantial, and potentially functional explosive device. The identity and the motives of the would-be bomber are yet unknown. This incident underscores the risk that Swedish gang violence and the associated availability of explosives pose to civilians.

• Consider secure transportation and executive protection when visiting all areas of Sweden.

Analysis

This year has already become the deadliest on record for gang-related violence in Sweden. So far in 2022 there have been 48 shooting deaths and 76 bombings as both guns and grenades have become increasingly accessible. Swedish cities such as Malmö and Göteborg have become notorious as amongst Europe’s most dangerous and gang-related shootings have propelled the country’s gun-homicide rate up to 4.5 times the European average. At the present rate Sweden is primed to overtake Croatia as Europe’s leader in gun deaths per capita.

While deadly shootings have risen steadily since 2005, their impact has shifted. Historically, gang-violence was confined to the suburbs of Stockholm, Göteborg, and Malmö, but smaller cities and rural areas have become increasingly affected. In May, three men were executed within eight-days in the small city of Orebro. Numerous security incidents were reported in small towns and rural areas throughout the month of August.

The social alienation, economic inequality, and limited employment opportunities experienced by first- and second-generation Swedes combined with a lucrative drug trade and increasing access to weaponry have fueled the violence. The lack of evidence left behind by detonated IEDs and the prevailing attitude towards the police in many immigrant communities have complicated Swedish officials’ abilities to crack down on the violence.

Looking Forward

Sweden’s far-right groups have been expanding their strength and membership as the country becomes more dangerous. There are growing concerns that should Sweden’s police continue to struggle to scale back the threat from gang violence, far-right groups may engage in “vigilante” violence against immigrant communities. The new right-wing government is expected to augment police budgets, which may help reduce violence in the short term. But the Sweden-Democrats party’s history of anti-immigrant rhetoric has civil rights groups concerned that the new government’s policies will inflame instead of redress the root causes of violence.

Recent Events

• 01 October: One person was injured in a shooting at an unspecified location near Landskrona north of Malmö.
• 29 September: Two people were injured in a shooting at a residence in Enköping, a suburb of Stockholm.
• 28 September: Multiple sources reported a shooting along Robert Anbergsvag in Södertälje, a suburb of Stockholm. One person was injured.
• 27 September: A suspicious device was safely defused in Slottsskogen park in Gothenberg.
• 22 September: Multiple sources reported a powerful explosion in a stairwell of a residential building along Bygatan in the Huvudsta area of Stockholm. At least two injuries were reported. The explosion resulted in extensive damage to the building and surrounding area.
• 18 September: A suspicious device was discovered at a pier located near Storgatan and Norrstacksvagen.

KEY TAKEAWAYS The frequency and extent of gang violence in Sweden is cause for travelers to take increased pre-cautions when traveling to and around the country. Recent political developments in Sweden have the potential to exacerbate the issue in the long term.

SITUATIONAL UPDATE

• Hurricane Ian hit the west coast of Florida on Wednesday as a Category 4 storm, bringing sustained 150mph winds, massive storm surge, and torrential rains.
• Hardest hit areas include Naples, Fort Myers, Sanibel Island, Port Charlotte, Cape Coral, Punta Gorda, and Englewood.
• As a result, more than 2.5 million customers remain without power across the state. Similarly, there are significant disruptions to running water service.
• Flight cancellations continue across the state.
• There is at least one confirmed fatality.

 

CURRENT STATUS & FORECAST

• Heavy rains brought by Ian are causing flash flooding across much of central and eastern Florida, and flash flood and storm surge warnings are in effect for eastern and northeastern parts of the state. Rainfall totals could exceed 12 inches.
• Ian is expected to bring tropical storm force winds, heavy rains, flash flooding, and storm surge to the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina in coming days.

 

SECURITY

• Reports of looting at gas stations and pharmacies highlight the safety and security risks in the aftermath of major natural disasters. Such activity is likely to continue as long as power is out and first responders are busy operating rescue missions. 
• Curfews are in place in multiple cities and counties in the hardest-hit areas, including Fort Myers and Naples, Lee County, and Charlotte County. 

 

SPECIAL REPORT

In the morning hours of 27 September, Hurricane Ian strengthened into a Category 3 storm before making landfall near the Cuban town of La Coloma in Pinar Del Rio province, located approximately 150 km (100 mi) southwest of Havana. According to current estimates, Ian is expected to reach the central Florida west coast late Wednesday night or Thursday morning as a Category 3 storm or higher. The Tampa Bay area can expect a storm surge of 6-10 feet and Jacksonville and other areas along the St. Johns River may also be at risk for a severe storm surge.

The hurricane is expected to produce the following amounts of rainfall:

• 100-150 mm in the U.S. Florida Keys and South Florida
• 300-405 mm in central-western Florida (with isolated totals of 610 mm)
• 75-200 mm in northeastern Florida
• 130-250 mm in the rest of the central Florida Peninsula

Prolonged rainfall will lead to flooding in some areas, and an ongoing risk of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes will be a concern from Florida to Georgia and the Carolinas through the weekend.

The two factors to watch going forward will be the southward dip in the jet stream across the United States, which could pull the storm northward and into the coast, and to what extent the storm slows upon landfall when reaching Florida. The slower the storm is traveling, the higher the risk of intense rainfall and storm surge.

• On 27 September, Tampa International Airport (KTPA/TRP) will suspend operations starting at 17:00 (local time). St. Pete-Clearwater International Airport (KPIE/PIE) will completely shut down as of 13:00 (local time).
• Mandatory evacuation orders have been issued for communities near Tampa Bay, including Charlotte, Hillsborough, Lee, Levy, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, and Sarasota counties.

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES

• To view Global Guardian’s 2022 Hurricane Preparedness Guide, click here.
• For those currently in Florida, we also advise consulting the Florida Division of Emergency Management here.

Fires in California incur significant financial and human costs that are expected to rise as a changing climate renders the state hotter and drier for longer.

Major fire incidents have steadily increased across the entirety of California over the past few decades. The risk of fire has extended to the whole state, and fire season is now year-long. The destruction of housing, displacement of residents, disruption to businesses, frequent power blackouts, degradation of air quality, and drain on public resources caused by fires, heatwaves, and droughts have a host of associated environmental and economic consequences that will continue to threaten lives and livelihoods in California for years to come. The risks from wildfires, heatwaves, and droughts underscore the need to properly prepare for these hazards.

Thus far in 2022 wildfires in California have killed nine people, displaced more than 6000 others, consumed more than 360,000 acres of land, and destroyed more than 700 structures. September and October are historically the most dangerous months for wildfires, and there are currently around a dozen major fires burning across the state.

The number of acres burned in wildfires varies year to year but is generally trending upwards.

The growing intensity and extent of wildfires is driven by climate change. Average summer temperatures in California have risen by approximately 3 degrees F (1.8℃) since 1896, with more than half of that increase occurring since the early 1970s. As temperatures rise, California’s environment becomes drier and hotter. This leads to more wildfires but also to heatwaves and droughts. Wildfires are made both more likely and more difficult to fight by the increased temperatures caused by heatwaves and reduced availability of water caused by droughts. These weather phenomena feed into each other in a number of ways with serious environmental, health, and economic impacts.

Heatwaves have grown increasingly deadly in their own right. In 2021, extreme heat killed more Americans than any other weather-related disaster. In Europe, heatwaves are being given designated names, similar to hurricanes, in an effort to raise awareness among the public of their lethal potential. The below graphs from NASA highlight the rising number, duration, and intensity of heatwaves in California.

Preparation

Have a Plan

• If you anticipate needing assistance during a disaster, talk to family, friends and others who will be part of your personal support network.
• Write down and share each aspect of your emergency plan with everyone in your support network.
• Make sure everyone knows how you plan to evacuate your home or workplace and where you will go in case of a disaster.
• Make sure that someone in your local network has an extra key to your home and knows where you keep your emergency supplies.
• Teach those who will help you how to use any lifesaving equipment and administer medicine in case of an emergency.
• Practice your plan, and update it as needed.

Build a Go Bag

• Non-perishable foods
• Medicines and first aid supplies
• Potable water
• Flashlights and batteries
• Mask and/or respirator
• Satellite phone

Strategic UPDATE 

The war in Ukraine has effectively entered its third phase as Russia is now implicitly acknowledging its desperation. Ukraine has managed to seize the momentum of the war and with winter rapidly approaching, the Kremlin has shifted course to solidify its gains before it is too late. With the proposed accessions of the Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine, President Putin will now have the internal legitimacy to escalate the war.

• On 21 September, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the partial mobilization of up to 300,000 citizens with specialist training and military experience. The mobilization announcement comes on the heels of a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive in north-eastern Ukraine that now threatens Russian control of territory it occupies in the Donbas—whose liberation has been Russia’s main stated objective since late March.

• On 20 September, Russian-appointed officials in occupied Kherson, Zaporizhia, Luhansk, and Donetsk oblasts announced referenda on accession to the Russian Federation which will be held 23-27 September.

• Also on 20 September, Russia’s State Duma unanimously passed an amendment to the criminal code, establishing penalties for “crimes against military service” if they are committed during mobilization, during wartime, under martial law, or under conditions of any armed conflict. The law increases penalties for desertion, insubordination, and voluntary surrender.

• On 21 September, anecdotal reports circulated that Russian railways and Aeroflot halted ticket sales to men ages 18-65, a claim that the companies have since denied. Border crossings are reportedly closed to males aged 18-45.

 

ANALYSIS

• The annexation announcement is meant to dissuade Kyiv from continuing its counteroffensive and convince its Western benefactors that continued financial and material support for Ukraine can lead to a more severe Russian response, as Russia will now see Ukraine as attacking its territory. Putin’s threat to use “all means” is a tacit threat to use nuclear weapons, as Russian nuclear doctrine provides for the use of a first strike in defense of the homeland.

• The mobilization and referenda together signal a shift in Russian domestic framing for the war and an unprecedented acknowledgment of force insufficiency. Annexation will force Russia to deploy conscripted forces already integrated into the military to eastern Ukrainian territory quickly to rebuff the current Ukrainian counteroffensive.

• By enacting a partial rather than full mobilization and continuing to refer to the war as a special military operation, Putin is balancing pressure from hardliners calling for a more robust commitment to the war effort with the potential unrest that a full mobilization—especially with the conscription of the urban elite—and declaration of war could incite.

 

LOOKING AHEAD

• Russia does not have the capacity to quickly mobilize 300,000 troops. The process will take months if not a year to accomplish. The Kremlin will directly increase force generation through continued voluntary self-mobilization and an expansion of its legal authority to deploy Russian conscripts already with the force to fight in Ukraine. Russia should be able to quickly send in several thousand troops to the frontlines; however, their training levels and morale will be even lower than the current lot. Even in the short-run, it is unlikely they will be able to prove effective on the battlefield.
• The annexation of Russian-controlled territory is irreconcilable with Kyiv's new aim to regain all of Ukraine's territory. This will make the prospects of any negotiated settlement even dimmer.
• Understanding the desperate situation, Putin will now be more inclined to "win at all costs." We have already seen a recent increase in Russia's willingness to target Ukrainian civilian infrastructure (electricity, water, and communications), we can now expect more.

 

IRAQ | ISRAEL | UKRAINE | MEXICO

In Global Guardian's new monthly Risk Barometer, our team of intelligence analysts will brief on current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travels. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates, including this monthly report.

 

Iraq’s Political Crisis Boils Over

On 29 August, civil unrest erupted across Iraq following the retirement announcement of Shi’a spiritual and political leader, Muqtada al-Sadr. Political tensions between al-Sadr's supporters and supporters of the pro-Iran Shiite Coordination Framework were already sky-high over efforts to break through the political deadlock that emerged from the October 2021 elections.

Violent protests were reported in Baghdad's Green Zone, Tahrir Square, Kadhimiya and Jadriyah areas, and in the cities of Diwaniyah, Nasiriyah, Basrah, Baqubah, Kut, and Samawah. Over 35 people were killed and at least 700 were injured in clashes between al-Sadr supporters and his Seraya Al-Islam armed militia, Iran-aligned paramilitary groups, and Iraqi security forces. Mortar and rocket-propelled grenade (RPG) fire was reported overnight, as well as at least four rocket explosions. During the fighting, al-Sadr’s Seraya Al-Islam destroyed Iran-affiliated Asa'ib Ahl Al Haq's headquarters in Diwaniyah and Kata'ib Hezbollah’s headquarters in Baghdad and Basra—sending a strong message to Iran.

Al-Sadr's supporters stormed Baghdad's International Zone (Green Zone) on 30 July and escalated their occupation of the area starting on 23 August in an attempt to pressure the country's judiciary to dissolve parliament, which would, in turn, trigger fresh elections.

While al-Sadr’s followers withdrew from their protest sites on 30 August, armed individuals assassinated Saraya al-Salam’s leader, Hussein Fouad, in Basra in the evening of 31 August. Armed clashes then broke out overnight between Saraya al-Salam and Asaib Ahl al-Haq fighters in the same area.

 

Israel-Gaza Flair Up Lowers Conflict Risk in the Short-Term

Following the 66-hour period of conflict between Israel and the Iranian-backed Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) militant group, the prospects of renewed violence have diminished in the immediate term. On 05 August 2022 the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) launched a preemptive strike on PIJ, eliminating Tayseer Jabari, PIJ’s commander of northern Gaza, as well as several terror squads allegedly en route to conducting an attack. In response, PIJ began to launch rockets into Israel and the Israeli Air Force (IAF) continued to attack PIJ positions in Gaza.

During the three days of the conflict, 1,175 rockets were launched at Israel and the IAF hit 170 PIJ targets across the Gaza Strip. Most of the rocket barrages targeted the Israeli communities near the Gaza Strip and at cities in Israel’s south, though some targeted the greater Tel Aviv and Jerusalem areas. Over 96% of the rockets destined for Israeli population centers were intercepted by the Iron Dome missile defense system. Several rockets did manage to evade Iron Dome and land in populated areas and the majority of PIJ’s rocket arsenal is still intact. The Egyptian-mediated cease-fire went into effect on 07 August and continues to hold.

The IDF launched its campaign to prevent an imminent PIJ attack in retaliation for Israel’s arrest of Bassem Saadi, the PIJ’s West Bank leader. PIJ was involved in the terror wave in Israel during March and April which killed over a dozen Israelis. Since then, the IDF have cracked down on PIJ cells in the West Bank, ultimately leading to the capture of Saadi.

Travel Impact

In the lead up to the conflict, the IDF shut down roads and train lines that were vulnerable to fire from Gaza. Bomb shelters were opened in major cities and gathering restrictions were implemented in Israel’s communities near the Gaza Strip. Over 1.5 million people were instructed into bomb shelters. Several rockets fired in the direction of Tel Aviv Ben Gurion Airport (TLV) forced the rerouting of outgoing flight traffic and caused several flights in the air to divert on 07 August.

Analysis

The real story of this conflagration is that Hamas—the Islamist militant group who controls the Gaza Strip—did not enter the conflict and that mediation ended this round of fighting promptly.

Hamas’ Constraints – Burdened with the obligation of ruling Gaza, Hamas is under a triad of constraints:

• Financial: The Gaza Strip is undergoing a financial crisis with liquidity in the region drying up and a major rise in costs of food and fuel. Hamas is reliant on funding from Qatar which would be jeopardized should it have entered the conflict.
• Military: Hamas understands that it would lose members of its upper leadership in the initial onslaught should it enter the conflict.
• Political: Hamas is concerned with maintaining its grip on power. Following a tax hike in July, Gazans took to the streets to protest, a rare occurrence that highlights displeasure with the economic circumstances. Moreover, Hamas stood to gain very little politically, while it would have been held responsible for the casualties and destruction that would ensue from another war with Israel only one year after the previous iteration.

Better Diplomacy – The two most prominent interlocutors in Israel-Gaza affairs, Egypt and Qatar, worked together to rapidly and effectively mediate a ceasefire. Until a recent rapprochement between Qatar and the Arab Quartet in January 2021, Cairo and Doha found themselves on opposite sides of regional disputes and competed over brokering ceasefires in previous rounds of fighting. Going forward, this new entente has the leverage to end conflicts between Israel and Gazan militants faster and possibly even prevent minor conflagrations from turning into wider conflicts.  

Advice

The events of early August underscore the need to keep up to date with the geopolitical situation in Israel prior to travel. Be it through receiving briefings from professional analysts to personally tracking the news in the weeks prior to travel, situational awareness is paramount when traveling to volatile security environments. Global Guardian also recommends that all travelers to Israel download rocket warning apps such as the Israeli Defense Forces Home Front Command app (iOS, Android) or the Red Alert: Israel app (iOS, Android) on their smartphones to provide real-time information on threats.  

KEY TAKEAWAY The current geopolitical and macroeconomic environment created political conditions that are less likely to result in a major conflagration between Gaza-based militants and Israel in the short term. Both Hamas and residents of the Gaza Strip are more concerned with butter than guns. In the medium term, however, we can expect further rounds of deadlier conflict as Iran continues to fund, supply, and train militant groups in Gaza and around the Middle East.

 

Concern Rises Over Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant amid start of Ukrainian Counter-Offensive in Kherson

After more than six months of conflict in Ukraine following Russia’s invasion, fighting is now largely concentrated in the south and eastern oblasts of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk. A current area of significant concern is the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), located along the Dnipro River in northwestern Zaporizhzhia oblast. The power plant has been under Russian control since March. Fears are increasing over the possibility that military strikes could critically damage the plant, potentially leading to a nuclear disaster, which could spread deadly radioactive material across Europe. Shelling in the area, blamed on both Ukraine and Russia, has damaged infrastructure and sparked fires dangerously close to the NPP.

The recent Ukrainian counter-offensive that began in neighboring Kherson oblast has also raised the stakes for the NPP. Both Ukrainian and Russian forces are using artillery in their efforts to advance on, and repel, opposing forces, risking damage to the NPP. Additionally, there is concern that retreating Russian forces could sabotage the NPP in some way, in order to halt the advance of Ukrainian forces.

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, and a team of inspectors arrived at the NPP on 01 September to assess the situation. They are leaving a team of two people on-site permanently to monitor operations at the plant. Additionally, the IAEA has called for the establishment of a nuclear safety protection zone around the power plant. 

Recent Developments

• 06 September: Russian officials say work is underway to restore the fifth power unit at the power plant following reported Ukrainian shelling overnight.
• 05 September: Zaporizhzhia plant was disconnected from Ukraine's power grid after Russian shelling.
• 02 September: Lithuania called on the United Nations (UN) to send a permanent delegation to the Zaporizhzhia NPP.
• 28 August: Russia claims pipeline damage in Ukrainian shelling near NPP buildings that store fuel and radioactive waste and near the pumping station cooling reactor.
• 26 August: Russia accused Ukrainian forces of firing six shells near the power plant; however, no damage was reported. Radiation levels are still considered normal at the NPP.
• 26 August: Ukraine’s Energoatom says the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant has been reconnected to the country’s electrical grid after being cut off for the first time earlier in the week.
  • A fire at a nearby coal-fired station that damaged high-voltage lines connecting the nuclear power plant to the power grid likely knocked the power grid offline.

POTENTIAL IMPACT While neither Russia nor Ukraine wants a Chernobyl-type situation and will likely do everything they can to keep the power plant operating safely, the NPP remains a powerful bargaining chip and important asset. A full meltdown and resulting explosions could send radioactive material across Ukraine and much of Europe and the Caucuses, depending on wind conditions. There is concern Russia could either divert the NPP’s electricity to their own power grid or take it offline from Ukraine’s power grid in the winter months, which could “freeze out” much of the country. The Zaporizhzhia NPP supplies 20% of Ukraine’s electricity, replacing that would prove extremely difficult, meaning parts of the country may not have power for extended periods of time

 

Violence Across Mexico Highlights Risks of Travel

The month of August saw a significant increase in cartel-related violence across multiple areas of Mexico, including in Tijuana, Ciudad Juarez, Guanajuato, and Guadalajara. The violent clashes, including shootouts, vehicle blockades, fires, and car-jackings followed the arrest of a CJNG leader in Guadalajara and gang clashes inside a prison in Ciudad Juarez. This uptick underscores the omnipresent risk of violence in Mexico, and the need for low-profile, secure transportation for travel within the country.

Despite the recent spate of violence, intentional homicides fell just over 9 percent in the first half of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, from 16,948 murders to 15,400 murders. While the homicide rate remains high in Mexico, total homicides fell slightly in 2021 (33,315) from record levels of violence in 2020 (34,554) and 2019 (34,690).

Cartel Jalisco Nuevo Generacion (CJNG)

The CJNG, based out of Jalisco, is responsible for much of the uptick in violence over the last several years. It controls or fights for territory in Guanajuato, Michoacan, Baja California, Mexico, Jalisco, Chihuahua, and Guerrero, among other locations across the country. The above-mentioned seven states accounted for over half of the national total of homicides in the first six months of the year. The CJNG engages in drug trafficking, kidnapping, extortion (particularly of avocado & lime farmers), oil pipeline tapping, and other criminal activities.

Recent Incidents

• 09-10 August: Overnight violence erupted in Guadalajara and Guanajuato after the arrest of high-ranking CJNG member "El Doble R" on 09 August. Cartel members clashed with security forces, set fire to at least 25 OXXO convenience stores, and set several vehicles ablaze to prevent the passage of security forces. At least three people were killed, 19 vehicles destroyed, and 11 suspects arrested.
• 11 August: At least 10 people were killed in Ciudad Juárez after suspected cartel members attacked multiple fast-food restaurants and convenience stores. The attacks were linked to deadly gang clashes that occurred at a Ciudad Juárez prison (Cereso No. 3) earlier in the day.
• 12-13 August: Overnight cartel violence broke out across northern Baja California, including in Tijuana, Mexicali, Ensenada, and Rosarito. Multiple vehicles, including buses and taxis, were car-jacked and set ablaze, forming burning blockades. Multiple convenience stores were targeted with fire as well in an effort to cause chaos and divert emergency services. It is believed that CJNG members carried out the blockades in response to the arrest of "El Doble R" in Guadalajara several days before. At least 17 people were arrested in connection with the burning blockades.
• 14 August: At least seven people were injured after gunmen opened fire on the Botanero Veintiuno bar in Manzanillo, Colima.
• 16 August: At least four police officers were kidnapped, and two police vehicles were set on fire when gunmen attacked a police station in Moctezuma, San Luis Potosí. The police officers were later found unharmed.
• 17 August: At least three people were killed, and another was wounded following a firefight between suspected cartel gunmen and security forces near El Huizache, San Luis Potosí.
• 27-28 August: Two people were killed and more injured after armed groups clashed in Zacatecas, lighting at least eight vehicles on fire and lining roads with sharp objects to deter police.

IMPACT As a result of the violence, the Mexican Army sent 350 soldiers and National Guard personnel to Tijuana to be deployed across Baja California state to help shore up security. A similar deployment occurred in the Quintana Roo area last year following an uptick in cartel violence in Cancun, Tulum, Playa del Carmen, and Cozumel. Further violence is possible in the near-term and can be expected following future arrests of any high-ranking cartel members. While dropping, the homicide rate in Mexico remains high, and the country is on track to report more than 30,000 murders this year.

SITUATION UPDATE 

On 29 August, civil unrest erupted across Iraq following the retirement announcement of Shi’a spiritual and political leader, Muqtada al-Sadr. Political tensions between al-Sadr's supporters and supporters of the pro-Iran Shiite Coordination Framework were already sky-high over efforts to break through the political deadlock that emerged from the October 2021 elections. Following overnight clashes, the current situation has begun to stabilize though fighting could reignite at any point in this highly volatile political moment.

Al-Sadr's supporters stormed Baghdad's International Zone (Green Zone) on 30 July and escalated their occupation of the area starting on 23 August in an attempt to pressure the country's judiciary to dissolve parliament, which would, in turn, trigger fresh elections.

Violent protests were reported in Baghdad's Green Zone, Tahrir Square, Kadhimiya and Jadriyah area, and in the cities of Diwaniyah, Nasiriyah, Basrah, Baqubah, Kut, and Samawah. Over 35 people were killed and at least 700 were injured in clashes between al-Sadr supporters and his Seraya Al-Islam armed militia, Iran-aligned paramilitary groups, and Iraqi security forces. Mortar and rocket-propelled grenade (RPG) fire was reported overnight, as well as at least four rocket explosions. During the fighting, al-Sadr’s Seraya Al-Islam destroyed Iran-affiliated Asa'ib Ahl Al Haq's headquarters in Diwaniyah and Kata'ib Hezbollah’s headquarters in Baghdad and Basra—sending a strong message to Iran.

Impact

• A nationwide curfew was put into effect at 19:00 local time (but has since been lifted)
• Temporary closure of the Iran-Iraq border
• Evacuation of the Embassy of the Netherlands in the Green Zone
• Temporary blockade of roads to three oil fields and Basrah International Airport (BSR)
• The US Embassy C-RAM defense systems were activated in the Green Zone, with at least two rockets being intercepted

Current Situation

Today, in an afternoon speech, al-Sadr condemned the violence and urged his followers to withdraw from the Green Zone within 60 minutes. Early reports indicate that the Sadrists have started withdrawing from the Green Zone and other sites of protest following Sadr's ultimatum. Iraqi Joint Operations Command also ended the curfew in Iraq.

Looking Forward

While the security situation in Iraq has temporarily stabilized, the political environment is still highly volatile, with the potential to erupt again. With tens of thousands of politically opposed armed militiamen harboring deep grievances, further and more intense violence cannot be ruled out.

Global Guardian will be monitoring Iraq's political developments, primarily announcements and events surrounding Muqtada al-Sadr. In addition, Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court is also expected to decide on whether or not parliament can be dissolved, and if new elections can be held—the main drivers of the recent political crisis and associated unrest.

 

SITUATION UPDATE 

The first two weeks of August saw a significant increase in cartel-related violence across multiple areas of Mexico, including in Tijuana, Ciudad Juarez, Guanajuato, and Guadalajara. The violent clashes, including shootouts, vehicle blockades, fires, and car-jackings followed the arrest of cartel leaders in Guadalajara and gang clashes inside a prison in Ciudad Juarez. This uptick underscores the omnipresent risk of violence in Mexico, and the need for low-profile, secure transportation for travel within the country. 

Recent Incidents

• 09-10 August - Overnight violence erupted in Guadalajara and Guanajuato after the arrest of high ranking CJNG member "El Doble R" on 09 August. Cartel members clashed with security forces, set fire to convenience stores, and set several vehicles ablaze to prevent the passage of security forces. At least three people were killed, 19 vehicles destroyed, and eleven suspects arrested.
• 11 August - At least 10 people were killed in Ciudad Juárez after suspected cartel members attacked multiple fast food restaurants and convenience stores. The attacks were linked to deadly gang clashes that occurred at a Ciudad Juárez prison (Cereso No. 3) earlier in the day.
• 12-13 August - Overnight cartel violence broke out across northern Baja California, including in Tijuana, Mexicali, Ensenada, and Rosarito. Multiple vehicles, including buses and taxis, were car-jacked and set ablaze, forming burning blockades. It is believed that CJNG members carried out the blockades in response to the arrest of "El Doble R" in Guadalajara several days before. At least 17 people were arrested in connection with the burning blockades. 

Impact

As a result of the violence, the Mexican Army sent 350 soldiers and National Guard personnel to Tijuana to be deployed across Baja California state to help shore up security. A similar deployment occurred in the Quintana Roo area last year following an uptick in cartel violence. 

Further violence is possible in the near-term, and can be expected following future arrests of any high-ranking cartel members. The homicide rate in Mexico remains high, and the country is on track to report more than 30,000 murders this year.