With Russia's renewed offensive looming, the U.S. and several European NATO partners have begun to arm Ukraine with more consequential weapons systems, breaking previous norms. It is unclear if they will be able to shift the balance of forces in favor of Ukraine. What is clear is that the Putin regime's survival is on the line now that Moscow has downsized its political objectives. 

While Russia would still like to maintain territory in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson (north of the Dnipro), given Russia's operational challenges—limited manpower, poor morale, disunified command and control, improper maintenance—it is probable that it will need to invest the bulk of its remaining assets to secure its main objectives of capturing the Ukrainian-controlled parts of Luhansk and Donetsk and to hold onto Kherson south of the Dnipro river to secure freshwater access to Crimea. 

Tactical Update

• The Russian forces that withdrew from the Kyiv region have not yet been reintroduced into eastern or northeastern Ukraine to fight. Russian forces failed to make significant advances in continued assaults on Severodonetsk, Popasna, and Rubizhne in eastern Ukraine.
• Sweden and Finland are expected to apply for NATO membership in late June. The accession process is not instantaneous and will like take 4–12 months. Given the state of the Russian military, we do not assess a kinetic Russian response to be likely. 
• Germany is mulling the transfer of 50 Leopard-1 battle tanks to Ukraine in the next six weeks. Similarly, the U.S. is considering sending Ukraine Mi-17 helicopters, and Howitzer cannons. This comes as Slovakia is moving closer to providing Soviet-era MiG-29 jets after it transferred an S-300 anti-air system last week. Anecdotally, heavy weapons have been seen on trains moving east in Poland. Ultimately, these platforms may make it more feasible for Ukraine to reconstitute some of its lost territory, but not in the short term. 

Latest DEVELOPMENTS

• At approximately 08:24 local time, a shooting occurred on a subway train inside the 36th Street Station (Sunset Park neighborhood) in Brooklyn, New York.

• As the northbound N train entered the station, a lone assailant donned a gas mask before deploying a smoke grenade and opening fire.

• 10 people were shot on the train and platform. Five of those shot are in critical but stable condition – no victims are in life-threatening condition. An additional six people were injured by smoke inhalation, shrapnel, and in the chaos following the attack.

• A manhunt is ongoing for the assailant, who escaped and remains unidentified. Police found a weapon in the station but it is unknown if the suspect is still armed.  

• The incident is not being investigated as a terror attack, and no explosive devices remain at the scene or in the rest of the subway system. 

• Authorities have advised the public to avoid the area between 3rd Ave and 5th Ave from 20th St to 40th St due to the ongoing police response.

• Subway service on D, N, and R trains in parts of Brooklyn and Manhattan are suspended and major delays on D, F, M, N, Q, and R trains are expected.

• While the subject is still at large, the incident appears to be isolated.

Latest DEVELOPMENTS

• China's "Covid-Zero" policy continues, with at least 23 cities under partial or full lockdown, including Shanghai, where the city and it's more than 25 million residents have been living under total lockdown for more than 10 days. Residents are not allowed to leave their homes except for COVID-19 testing. Protests have broken out in various parts of the city as residents begin to run low on food.
• Outside of China, cases continue to fall or stay flat in much of southeast Asia. South Korea, which had the most COVID-19 cases per-capita globally in the month of March, has just now recorded fewer than 100,000 daily new cases. 
• The highly contagious Omicron subvariant known as BA.2 is responsible for the recent waves in southeast Asia and Europe. It is more transmissible than the original Omicron variant but does not cause more severe illness. BA.2 now makes up a majority of cases globally, including in the U.S., where a second Omicron wave is likely in the coming months. 
• Multiple countries have begun rolling out a 2nd booster dose for the elderly or otherwise vulnerable populations in an effort to combat waning vaccine effectiveness. 
• Outside of several east Asian nations, most countries have dropped restrictive entry policies. 

The U.S. and EU continue to prepare new sanctions against Russia in light of the alleged war crimes perpetrated by Russian troops in Bucha. Meanwhile, heavy fighting continues in the area between Izyum and Donetsk as Russia threatens to envelop a sizeable portion of Ukraine's forces. 

Tactical Update

• In eastern Ukraine, Russian forces are slowly advancing from Izyum near Kharkiv to target Slovyansk. Capturing or managing to bypass the city will allow these troops to link up with other Russian forces in the Donbas and encircle Ukrainian defenders, likely resulting in a Russian victory in the region. 
• Russian forces from Kyiv and Chernihiv have largely completed their withdrawal to Belarus and Russia.
• In southern Ukraine, Ukrainian forces continue to progress near Kherson—the first city Russia conquered—and may soon be able to reestablish control over the western bank of the Dnieper river. 

Diplomatic Updates

• Diplomatic relations between Russia and the West continue to deteriorate as the U.S. imposes additional sanctions on Sberbank, Alfa Bank, and President Putin's two daughters. 
• On 05 April, European countries including Estonia, Latvia, Italy, Germany, France, Sweden, Spain, and Denmark expelled over 200 Russian diplomats in less than 24 hours under allegations of illegal intelligence activities. Russia has not yet responded, though in-kind dismissals from foreign embassies in Moscow are expected, following Russia’s response to similar actions in the past.
• Poland and the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have also coordinated to seal their respective borders with Belarus and Russia by the end of the week. Further negotiations are underway to block railways into Belarus and Russia as the nations advance stricter policies to curtail trade supporting Russia.
• On 05 April, a Wall Street Journal report revealed that the Czech Republic and Slovakia have quietly begun an effort to leverage their respective military-industrial bases to support Ukraine. The Czech Republic has been providing small numbers of T-72 tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, and Howitzers to Ukraine for several weeks. The Czech Republic and Slovakia are also considering repairing damaged Ukrainian equipment.
• The—albeit small—deliveries of heavy weaponry to Ukraine (and possible repairs) will be needed to mount an effective counterattack on the Russian/separatist-controlled territory in the Donbas. Yet, unlike the proposed S-300 anti-air system delivery, the provision of this materiel (in limited quantities) is not enough to upset the balance of forces, diminishing the likelihood that it will be treated by Russia as a NATO escalation in need of response.

Israel is experiencing its worst terror wave in the last decade. At the end of March, 11 people were killed in three separate attacks, all occurring within one week. In response, the Israeli military and police launched an operation to thwart future attacks, arresting terror suspects in the West Bank. Military chief Aviv Kohavi said on Monday that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) had foiled nearly a dozen terror attacks in the past two weeks, amid heightened tensions. The situation is highly volatile as the holy month of Ramadan (01 April–01 May) and the holy week of Passover (15 April–23 April) overlap this year, turning Jerusalem into an even larger flashpoint.

What is especially striking about two of the three terror attacks is that the assailants were Israeli-Arabs and conducted by individuals (as opposed to organized cells), making the attacks near-impossible to prevent. Tensions between Israel’s Jewish and Arab communities have been high since last year’s war in Gaza when there were numerous incidents of inter-communal mob violence in mixed Arab-Jewish communities. These attacks combined with the subsequent Israeli far-right backlash, proactive government anti-terror operations, and the potential for Palestinian terror groups to up the ante, make the current situation highly precarious.     

Downside Risks

Last year, during Ramadan, clashes that flared between Israeli forces and Palestinians in Jerusalem led to 11 days of devastating conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. In 2014, a chain of events that included the kidnapping and murder of Israeli youths, a large-scale anti-terror operation, and a revenge killing of a Palestinian teen, helped spark a war with Hamas. With many actors who stand to benefit from further attacks, a set of negative incentives exist for further violence, particularly in Jerusalem and Tel-Aviv.       

Recent Events 

02 April – Israeli troops killed three Palestinian Islamic Jihad gunmen who were allegedly en-route from the Jenin area to carry out an attack in Israel during a raid. 

31 March – Israeli commandos killed two Palestinian gunmen during a rare daytime raid, following a night where 31 alleged suspects were arrested in Jenin. 

29 March – A Palestinian gunman shot dead five civilians across multiple crime scenes in Beni Barak, just east of Tel-Aviv. The al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades – the armed wing of the Palestinian Fatah movement – claimed responsibility for the attack.

27 March – A pair of Israeli-Arab gunmen attacked Israeli police in Hadera yesterday, killing two officers and wounding at least five civilians. The militants released a video prior to the attack claiming their allegiance to ISIS.

22 March – In Beer Sheva, an Israeli-Arab terrorist rammed into a cyclist before exiting the vehicle and stabbing passersby in a nearby mall, leaving four dead and two injured. The assailant had ties to the Islamic State.

19 March – A Palestinian assailant stabbed and injured an Israeli jogger on Hebron Road in West Jerusalem.

The Battle for Kyiv has ended. Russian forces around Kyiv have accelerated their retreat, as Ukrainian forces conducted several local counterattacks disrupting this process. Despite the rhetoric of de-escalation, Russia is still conducting artillery and airstrikes around Kyiv but did not conduct any offensive operations around the city in the past 48 hours. U.S. officials have confirmed that Russia has withdrawn 20 percent of its troops from the Kyiv area into Belarus for likely redeployment to the Donbas in the future.

Tactical Update

• On 01 April, Russian officials reported that two Ukrainian Mi-24 attack helicopters carried out strikes against an oil depot in Belgorod, Russia—a major logistics hub for the eastern axis of Russia’s invasion. This alleged attack comes only days after an ammunition depot exploded in Belgorod. Taken together, these purported attacks point to a more proactive approach by the Ukrainian General Staff, understanding that it will need to slow down Russia’s resupply efforts before Russia launches its second, and likely better planned, invasion of the east.
• Russia is reportedly deploying more than 1,200 troops from Georgia to Ukraine in an effort to reinforce efforts in the country. Hundreds of mercenaries from Syria and Russia's Wagner group are also being deployed in Ukraine. With these numbers, the infusion of foreign fighters will have little effect on the battlefield but does point to Russia's critical need for fresh combatants. Russia faces continuing morale and supply issues, including contract servicemen requesting to terminate their contracts and many anecdotal accounts of insubordination. 

Diplomatic Progress

• Russia agreed to open a humanitarian corridor out of the besieged city of Mariupol. Buses with civilians began leaving the city on 01 April.
• While peace talks resumed on 01 April, little substantive progress has been made or appears likely in the near term. Russia is keen to focus on cementing control of the Donbas as its forces regroup. Ukraine is unlikely to give up this territory in an official capacity. 

Moscow and Kyiv are seriously discussing a ceasefire as part of a wider deal to end the conflict. Russia now claims that it will begin to draw down its forces from the Kyiv area, which comes after the Russian Ministry of Defense declared that the first phase of the invasion is complete and that its objective is now to "liberate" the Donbas. While there is now a more credible peace process and a path toward an agreed settlement, Russia will use this time to regroup (reorganize and resupply) and use the threat of force (as it has from April 2021) to maintain bargaining leverage over Kyiv, especially now that the West has already exhausted its financial leverage. 

Diplomatic Progress

• According to a report, Russia is willing to drop its initial demands of  “de-nazifying” and “demilitarizing” Ukraine. The report also mentioned that Russia is willing to let Ukraine join the European Union, so long as it provides constitutional assurances that it will not join NATO or host NATO troops in the future. In return for committing not to join NATO, Ukraine's security would be guaranteed by other international powers. 
• Over the last 48 hours, there has been a marked change of tone from Russian state-affiliated media outlets, indicating that the Kremlin may actually be serious about changing its objectives.
• Over the weekend, President Zelensky told independent Russian media outlets that Ukraine is pushing for security guarantees and ready to codify Ukraine's neutrality and non-nuclear status while signaling that he was open to negotiating the “complex question of Donbas.”
• So far, the major sticking point in negotiations has been the future of Crimea, the southern peninsula that Russia seized in 2014 and annexed into Russia. 

Tactical Update

• The past 72 hours have seen Ukrainian forces continue to conduct localized counterattacks in the Kyiv area, Sumy Oblast, and around Kharkiv & Izium. Ukraine’s counterattacks have come as major Russian offensives have mostly stalled, with Russian troops largely regrouping and trying to consolidate territory taken in the opening weeks of the invasion.
• Ukrainian forces recaptured the Kyiv suburb of Irpin on March 28. Ukrainian forces will likely take advantage of ongoing Russian force rotations and drawdowns to retake further territory northwest of Kyiv.
• According to the Ukrainian General Staff, a battalion tactical group (BTG) of the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army withdrew from Ukraine, marking the first major Russian unit to leave the theatre of operations. 
• Russian forces continue to advance block-by-block in central Mariupol. 

Transportation

• On 28 March, Russian officials announced plans to bar entry into Russia for nationals of countries who have leveled sanctions on Russia. These countries include EU member states, the UK, Canada, the U.S., Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, Japan, and others. The exact details and implementation date were not provided.
• Finnish authorities halted Allegro train services between St. Petersburg and Helsinki. Allegro was the only rail service connecting Russia with the EU.

NATO and the U.S. warned Russia against turning to chemical or nuclear weapons as Russian forces continue to be pushed back around Kyiv. In the south, Russian forces have entered central Mariupol; local Ukrainian political leaders have already left the city to regroup. The fall of Mariupol is likely only a few days away. 

NATO's Vague Red Line 

• At the NATO summit in Brussels on 24 March, President Biden cautioned that NATO would respond proportionately to Russian chemical weapons use, later qualifying the red line by stating that "the nature of the response would depend on the nature of the use.”
• Biden’s comment is the first to suggest a clear path to conflict between Russia and NATO, amid concerns that Russia may turn to weapons of mass destruction to "escalate to de-escalate" now that it is becoming clear that enveloping Kyiv will not be possible.
• The issue of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) defense was brought to the fore on 22 March when Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia will consider using its nuclear capabilities in the face of an "existential threat." NATO CBRN defense elements were activated this week, increasing the alliance’s readiness to respond to CBRN attacks that may spill over Ukraine’s border. 

Russia's Shifting Priorities

• While at first, regime change appeared to be an objective for Moscow, this no longer seems to be a realistic aim after running into serious challenges in northern Ukraine. In the south, however, Russia is nearing the capture of Mariupol, the one roadblock to Russia creating a land bridge between the Crimean Peninsula and the Donbas, assuming complete control of the Sea of Azov region. Not only would contiguous territory provide depth to defend Russian logistics from Ukrainian counter-attacks, the securing of the land bridge also would provide Russia with a small political victory.
• If Mariupol is captured, Russia (and its proxies) will be able to devote more resources to encircling Ukrainian forces in the Donbas.

Trouble in Minsk?

• On 23 March, Ukrainian-Belarusian relations further deteriorated as the Belarusian Foreign Ministry expelled all but five members of Ukraine’s diplomatic mission, causing the Ukrainian consulate in Brest to close. Ukraine retaliated the following day, reducing Belarus' diplomatic mission in Kyiv to five people and closing its consulate in Lviv.
• The widening of the rift comes as four to five Belarusian battalion tactical groups moved to the Ukraine-Belarus border region of Volyn on 24 March despite no Russian offensive in the area. Ukraine has accused Belarus of mobilizing to support Russia’s offensive, yet the Belorussian political and military establishments have been hesitant to join the war despite strong pressure from Moscow.
• At this time, it does not appear that there is sufficient combat power to open a new axis of advance into Western Ukraine. Though this could change as Russian reinforcements have been seen moving into Belarus.

Cyber Updates

• The FBI is warning all organizations in the U.S. energy sector of hostile network reconnaissance activity stemming from multiple Russia-based IP addresses. These malicious actors are believed to be associated with previous destructive cyber activity against foreign critical infrastructure.
• A cyberattack against Ukraine telecommunications providers on 23 March left Ukrainian Railways online ticketing and telephone services offline. Transportation out of Ukraine has become more complicated than usual due to disruptions from Russian cyber threat groups.

Russia’s assault on Kyiv continues to be stalled as Ukraine continues limited but effective counter-attacks west and north of the capital. The prospect of S-300 weapons shipments from Slovakia may soon be realized as Russia warns against materiel support for Ukraine. 

• According to a report, the U.S. will be sending Ukraine old Soviet SA-8 surface-to-air missile systems (SAMs). The SA-8 is a tactical, air defense system that is highly mobile and will be used to provide cover for ground forces.
• This report comes as NATO partner countries have provided Slovakia with the Patriot air defense system, meeting Slovakia's condition for it to, in turn, send its S-300 SAMs to Ukraine. The S-300 is much more advanced than the SA-8 and would constitute a game-changing weapons transfer to Ukraine, diminishing Russia's ability to conduct airstrikes and possibly even intercept some of Russia's missiles. Russia has stated it will prioritize targeting suspected weapons shipments if the S-300s enter Ukraine, both increasing the risks of an escalation with NATO, and decreasing the overall safety levels of Western Ukraine.  
• On 19 March, Russia’s Ministry of Defence announced the first operational use of the nation’s new Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic missile in a strike against a weapons depot in Ukraine’s western Ivano-Frankivsk region. The use of this new weapon system can be seen either as a final warning against potential S-300 transfers or it may be an indication that Russia is running low on the precision-guided missiles it has been using to strike targets in western Ukraine.
• On 19 March, Belarus' embassy staff left Kyiv, mirroring the departure of Russian diplomats just days prior to the invasion. This evacuation, along with Russia's freezing repayment of Belarus's loans to Russia may point to more direct Belarussian involvement in the conflict. 
• Kyiv has renewed its curfew. The curfew began at 8:00 PM (local time) on 21  March and will last until 07:00 AM on 23 March. During the curfew, movement through the city without special passes is prohibited.

• In the south, Mariupol remains under siege as Russian troops slowly advance into the city while seeming to abandon near-term plans to assault Odesa. According to (unverified) local sources some 80% of the city's infrastructure is damaged or destroyed as the humanitarian situation becomes increasingly dire. Reports have emerged that Russian forces have detained thousands of civilians with some being transferred to Russia.
• The question remains if Mariupol is being made an example of in order to add credence to the impending threat to Kyiv, or if this brutality is only meant for Mariupol, a city that saw intense battles in 2014. The alleged actions of Ukraine's far-right Azov Battalion in Mariupol serve as a key component to Russia's "denazification" narrative and its stated political objective. 
• Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine continue to progress slowly. Stalling from Ukraine is making a comprehensive ceasefire agreement unlikely in the short term, while Russia seeks to impose higher costs on Ukrainian cities to force serious negotiations. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian General Staff has reported that Moscow is preparing its population for a long war scenario, which would include mass mobilization.  

Lviv

• A Russian cruise missile strike destroyed an aircraft repair plant in Lviv. The strike raises concerns over Lviv's relative safety and underscores Russia's commitment to degrading Ukraine's military and civilian industrial base. 
• In an interview with Russian news organization RT on 18 March, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated that NATO weapons transfers will be treated as targets. This could increase threats against Lviv, which has served as a main transfer point for foreign military assistance.

Kyiv

• Around Kyiv, Russian advancements from the west and northwest remain stalled. Russian artillery continues to target population centers in and around Kyiv.

Kharkiv

• Russian forces continue to shell Kharkiv, but have not launched any major assaults on the city. To the south of Kharkiv, Russian forces launched several unsuccessful attacks to bypass Izyum on 16-17 March after failing to take the town through frontal assaults.

Mariupol, Kherson & Odesa

• Mariupol remains under brutal siege as Russian forces target civilian infrastructure.
• Near Kherson, Russian forces continue to reinforce existing positions as part of a larger operation to defend the city—the only large city under Russian control—and its airbase. 
• In Odesa, Russian forces appear unlikely to launch an unsupported amphibious assault as elements of Russia’s 810th Naval Infantry Brigade were deployed to Mariupol on 16 March after being held in reserve.

RU-UA Negotiations

• Ukraine has reportedly called for Turkey and Germany to act as guarantors of any Russian ceasefire deal. Ukrainian President Zelensky may be seeking to stall negotiations for a better deal as Ukrainian forces successfully extend the Russian assault far beyond its allotted resources and Western sanctions take effect.

Russia: Putin Sets Sights Within

• In a meeting held on 16 March, Putin warned that the real threat to Russia is a “fifth column” of “traitors” who believe Western information on Russia’s war in Ukraine. Putin’s statements of a “purification of society” may precede legislative action further tightening restrictions on civil society. Exit bans have anecdotally been reported, along with intensive questioning of Russian citizens attempting to leave the country. 
• On 17 March, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was reportedly halfway to China before his plane reversed course and returned to Moscow. Both Russia and China have denied the event which may signal a diminishing of support for Russia’s war in Ukraine from China.

On the World Stage

• Slovakia has pledged to send Ukraine S-300 long-range surface-to-air missiles if NATO provides a “proper replacement”. The air defense systems would replace the few possessed by Ukraine at the start of the war and allow Ukrainian forces to target Russian warplanes at an increased distance.
• In turn, the Russian Foreign Ministry warned that the transfer of S-300s by NATO to Ukraine would "create problems" for the donor countries. 
• Uzbekistan, traditionally a Russian ally, has broken with Russian recognition of the conflict and called for an end to the war in Ukraine, suggesting that Russia’s inability to wrest an immediate victory in the war has even its long-time allies concerned.