THREAT REPORT

On Saturday, 18 September, 2021, upwards of 700 people will return to the U.S. Capitol to rally in support of defendants charged in connection with the January 6 storming of the Capitol building following the pro-Trump "Stop the Steal" rally. The demonstration is planned for noon at Union Square, which encompasses the U.S. Capitol. Multiple road closures will be in effect.

Latest DEVELOPMENTS

• The European Union removed the United States from its "Safe List", causing several European nations to alter their entry restrictions on American travelers. For example, Spain now requires unvaccinated Americans to provide proof of a negative test, while Switzerland removed the U.S. from its own list of approved traveler countries. 
• Pfizer expects to report data needed for vaccine approval in five to 11-year-olds later in September and could potentially submit an application for emergency use shortly after. It said data for kids aged two to under five could arrive soon after. For children between six months and two years, Pfizer has said it could have safety and immunogenicity data as early as October or November. It is likely all children in the U.S. 6mo and older will be able to receive Pfizer's vaccine by the start of 2022.
• Hospitalizations in the U.S. appear to be flattening as the Delta variant wave looks to have peaked in much of the South. Hotspots are now in Kentucky, Tennessee, and West Virginia. Daily deaths now average nearly 2,000/day and will likely peak in the next 10-14 days.
  
  

SITUATIONAL UPDATE

Hurricane Ida hit the Louisiana coast on Sunday as a Category 4 storm, bringing sustained 150 mph winds, massive storm surge, and torrential rains. As a result, more than one million customers remain without power in southeastern Louisiana, including in New Orleans, where all eight major transmission lines into the city have failed. Similarly, nearly 450,000 people are without running water in Louisiana. Several people have died as a result of the storm, and further fatalities are expected. 

The impact was felt in Mississippi as well, where multiple ports are at "Status Zulu", meaning no vessels may enter or transit the port without approval from the Coast Guard. Those under Port Status Zulu include the ports of Biloxi, Gulfport, Pascagoula, and Bienville. 

Damage to oil and gas infrastructure both on and offshore is being assessed, while prolonged disruptions to production, refining, and transportation of petroleum products could see a temporary spike in gasoline prices and long lines at gas stations.

Latest DEVELOPMENTS

• The U.S. FDA gave full approval to the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID vaccine, named Comirnaty. The decision set off a wave of vaccine mandates by various organizations, corporations, and institutions, including LSU, Ohio State, New York City school system, the Pentagon, and CVS, among others. Delta Airlines has announced they will charge unvaccinated employees an extra $200 per month for health insurance. 
• The FDA has authorized vaccine booster shots for immunocompromised or other at-risk individuals. 

In Afghanistan, the value of Global Guardian’s in-country security network quickly became evident as Duty of Care clients were evacuated to safety.

SITUATIONAL UPDATE

Over the weekend, the Afghan government collapsed, and the capital Kabul fell to the Taliban. The Taliban is now in full control of Kabul, 32 out of 34 of Afghanistan’s provincial capitals, and all border crossings. This comes after a week in which the Taliban made rapid advances across the nation, seizing Afghanistan’s second and third-largest cities with little resistance. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has now fled to the UAE and most Western embassies have shuttered their embassies and evacuated foreign staff. The Taliban has erected security checkpoints across Kabul and are limiting access to the airport. According to U.S. estimates, there are still over 11,000 third-country nationals present in Afghanistan awaiting evacuation. So far, there have been no hostilities between the Taliban and the U.S. forces who are securing the Kabul airport.  

Situation Update

On 01 August Myanmar’s de facto leader, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, declared himself prime minister in announcing a new caretaker government. Hlaing pledged to hold elections in August 2023, after previously announcing in February that elections would be held in February 2022. This announcement comes six months to the day after the military (Tatmadaw) coup against the newly elected civilian government on 01 February after claiming “voter fraud”, an allegation that has not been reliably substantiated. Since the February coup, Myanmar has been plagued by violence and instability. Over 950 people have been killed and over 7000 people have been arrested, including Aung San Suu Kyi and other senior civilian politicians.

Global DEVELOPMENTS

• As of 02 August, England will be open to vaccinated travelers from the USA and Europe, without the need to quarantine. Arrivals who have been fully vaccinated in the USA and European countries will still be required to complete a pre-departure test before arrival into England, alongside a PCR test on or before day 2 after arrival. 
  • Separate rules will continue to apply for those arriving from France.
  • Those vaccinated in the US will also need to provide proof of US residency.
  • Passengers from all countries cannot travel to the UK unless they have completed a passenger locator form.
    
• The US CDC updated its guidance for mask wearing amid the spread of the Delta variant across most of the country. 
  
  • They recommend for fully vaccinated people to wear a mask in public indoor settings in areas of substantial or high transmission.
  • They added guidance that fully vaccinated people might choose to wear a mask regardless of the level of transmission, particularly if they are immunocompromised or at increased risk for severe disease from COVID-19, or if they have someone in their household who is immunocompromised, at increased risk of severe disease or not fully vaccinated.

Global DEVELOPMENTS

• Europe has largely reopened to American tourists. The UK is not far behind, with planned lifting of quarantine restrictions on 19 July for those vaccinated through the NHS arriving from "amber list" countries. Fully vaccinated American tourists will be allowed into the UK later in the summer. See below map for breakdown.
• New cases are surging in Spain, the UK, and the Netherlands; however, deaths remain relatively flat, highlighting the power of vaccines in reducing hospitalizations and deaths.
  
• Southeast Asia, which has for the most part managed the pandemic well, is in the midst of a spike in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths due to the spread of the highly contagious Delta variant. Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines may experience shortages of hospital beds and oxygen in the coming weeks. Many countries in the region have imposed new restrictions.
  
• Latin America and southern Africa remain global hotspots for COVID-19 cases and deaths amid presence of variants and low vaccination rates.