SITUATION REPORT

A calculated or unintentional return to sustained hostilities looms as Moscow and Kyiv sabre-rattle over eastern Ukraine. After Russian troops failed to leave the Russia-Ukraine border region following the completion of training exercises on 23 March, U.S. European Command elevated its watch level to “potential imminent crisis,” its highest threat level.

 On 26 March, four Ukrainian soldiers were killed near the separatists' de facto capital of Donetsk, marking the most intense fighting in recent months, with cease-fire monitors reporting more extensive artillery and more advanced weaponry being used. Russian-aligned separatists and Ukrainian forces have been engaged in low-intensity conflict since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. The U.S. estimates that there are currently approximately 80,000 Russian troops amassed in Crimea and around Ukraine, nearly double Russia’s force posture in early March. The recent Russian military buildup has sparked fears that the frozen conflict on Europe’s eastern flank is heating up.

SITUATION REPORT

The trial of Derek Chauvin, the former Minneapolis police officer charged with killing George Floyd, wrapped up this week. The jury has reached a verdict and it will be announced today between 1630 and 1700 EST. 

Protests, counter-protests, unrest, and rioting are possible after the verdict is announced, regardless if he is found guilty or not guilty on any, all, or none of the charges.

Protests in response to Floyd's killing over the summer of 2020 lead to widespread unrest and riots in major cities. Similar unrest is possible in the wake of the trial verdict, especially in Minneapolis and other cities that saw significant upheaval in the summer of 2020, including Chicago and Atlanta.

SITUATION REPORT

While violent crime in the U.S. has been on the rise since 2014, the precipitous spike in 2020 is completely unprecedented. The year 2020 was by no means a normal year. But is the elevated level of violent crime here to stay? To address whether or not last year was an anomaly or an inflection point, it is important to reflect on the causes of the surge in violent crime. 

BREAKING DOWN THE 2020 CRIME SURGE

The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the Bureau of Justice Statistics both report that violent crime increased in 2020. Indeed, if the FBI’s preliminary data for 2020 holds (the conclusive report will be issued in September), then the U.S. recorded more than 20,000 murders in 2020(6.22 homicides per 100,000 people), the highest total since 1995 (8.22 homicides per 100,000 people). Alarmingly, this represents the largest yearly increase of homicides on record with estimates ranging from a 25 to 30 percent increase over 2019 levels. According to these data, aggravated assaults also increased by 10.5 percent. Meanwhile, with the exception of motor vehicle theft – which rose by 13 percent – non-violent crime fell significantly in 2020. Similarly, public mass shootings were effectively paused by the pandemic. This pause was broken in March 2021, as the country began loosening restrictions, with a mass shooting in Atlanta and continued through April with mass shootings in Boulder and Indianapolis.

SITUATION REPORT

Protests, looting, and rioting occurred in the Twin Cities area in the aftermath of the 11 April fatal police shooting of 20-year-old Daunte Wright in Brooklyn Center, MN. Wright was pulled over for having an expired registration on his vehicle and was then discovered to have an outstanding warrant. He was shot in the ensuing altercation and an investigation is ongoing. The Twin Cities area was already on edge due to the ongoing trial of Derek Chauvin, the former Minneapolis PD officer accused of killing George Floyd in May 2020.

IncidenT

 The pandemic has seen a significant shift in crime trends in the United States. Homicides across major cities increased significantly in 2020 and through 2021; however, public mass shootings were effectively paused by the pandemic as schools closed, work places emptied, and public spaces became less crowded. 

Incident: Last week Microsoft and DHS CISA reported that a previously unknown vulnerability in on-premise, self-hosted Microsoft Exchange Servers was being exploited by government sponsored espionage hackers, dubbed Hafnium. The attacks allowed not only inbox access, but offered the ability for attackers to steal mailbox contents.