On 31 July, the U.S. State Department issued a Level 4 Travel Advisory for Lebanon, advising citizens not to travel to the country amid increasing tensions between Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran. The warning comes after Israel allegedly assassinated Hamas' political leader in a supposedly hardened apartment in Tehran, Iran. The Tehran strike itself comes a day after Israel eliminated a senior Hezbollah commander in southern Beirut in a targeted airstrike. All eyes are on Iran to see how it chooses to respond. The recent events have also triggered flight disruptions in the region.
Situation Report
- United Airlines, Delta, and British Airways have canceled flights to and from Israel's Ben Gurion International Airport (TLV) starting on 01 August and running through at least 06 August. Other airlines are likely to cancel flights.
- The U.S. State Department Level 4 Advisory urges Americans not to travel to Lebanon, and urges anyone in southern Lebanon to depart as soon as possible. This includes all parts south of the city of Saida, including inland areas.
- The Israeli strikes come after Hezbollah hit a soccer field last week, killing nine children and prompting condemnation. It is possible the attack was a mistake or miscalculation.
- Multiple countries continue to urge their citizens to leave Lebanon and avoid travel to Israel unless necessary.
- The Iranian response could take several days to formulate as they coordinate with proxy groups across the region.
Analysis
- Iran's Supreme Leader issued orders for a direct strike on Israel in retaliation for the assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran. This was an expected declaration and also allows Israel and its allies to prepare.
- Iran's response in April was to launch some 300 drones and missiles toward Israel in a relatively telegraphed barrage meant to signal to Israel that attacks on Iranian sovereign soil will provoke a direct response.
- A similar response can be expected, but given the Israeli strike on Hamas' political leader happened in Iran's capital, a more robust response is possible.
Recommendations
- Avoid all travel to Lebanon.
- Avoid unnecessary travel to Israel due to risks of additional flight cancellations and possible stranding.
- Continue to avoid non-essential travel to Israel and the broader Middle East as the situation continues to evolve.
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