2025 GLOBAL RISK Map + Geostrategic Stress Index

Countries classified as Extreme Risk are actively engaged in conflict, while also experiencing severe criminal activity and civil unrest. These countries are insecure; state institutions are too weak to manage militant groups or large-scale disasters.

Countries classified as High Risk experience regular conflict, criminal activity, or civil unrest. These countries have weak institutions and are incapable of effectively managing crises.

Countries classified as Medium Risk are not fully secure. Political instability and inadequate law enforcement make these countries vulnerable to criminality and sporadic unrest. State institutions are often ill-equipped to manage crises.

Countries classified as Moderate Risk are considered resilient. These countries are capable of quickly and effectively managing most crises and threats to personal security, but criminal activity, terrorism, and natural disasters can impact travel or in-country operations.

Countries classified as Low Risk are considered highly stable. These countries maintain a strong rule of law and are capable of containing threats to safety and security.

Ratings indicate a country or territory’s likelihood of experiencing significant destabilization in the next 5-10 years.

Countries classified as extreme risk are either already experiencing one or more highly destabilizing dynamics or are expected to in the near term.

Countries classified as high risk are highly susceptible to destabilizing dynamics, and it is probable that their current fragility will be exacerbated by foreign influence.

Countries classified as medium risk either feature low geostrategic significance with weak domestic institutions or countries with high geostrategic importance with strong domestic institutions and endogenous capabilities. China, Russia, and multiple middle powers are included in this category despite their robust security and political capabilities due to the potential for domestic ruptures.

Countries classified as moderate risk are not necessarily susceptible to the exacerbation of domestic instability. But some moderate risk countries proximate to high or extreme risk countries are in danger of spillover.

Countries classified as low risk are either highly stable, do not have natural resources or geographies that incentivize foreign influence, have robust endogenous capabilities that mitigate the potential for foreign interference and domestic unrest, or some combination thereof.

Countries classified as No Data do not have the requisite data to produce complete results.

Definition of Terms

Combativity: The amount of per capita civil unrest multiplied by the proportion of violent unrest.

Sources: GG Research Team, SIPRI, Global Firepower, World Bank, Statista, US Geological Survey, International Renewable Energy Agency, U.S. Department of Energy, World Gold Council, The Fund for Peace – Fragile States Index, ACLED