In Global Guardian's "Your Questions Answered" series, our experts address pressing questions on current events, providing insight and analysis on the issues that impact your personal safety, business operations, and travel security.
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This week’s question
OCTOBER 18, 2024
China conducted large-scale military exercises on Monday and China’s Defense Ministry said the drills were a response to the Taiwanese president’s refusal to acknowledge Taiwan as a part of the People’s Republic of China. Are these drills an escalation or are they merely an indicator of the long-term tension between China and Taiwan?
Global Guardian’s response
Provided by: Zev Faintuch, Head of Research and Intelligence at Global Guardian
China's "salami slicing" strategy — a slow, deliberate approach — is teleological, meaning it's directed toward a specific goal rather than just unfolding over time. China is using these drills to forward its objective of “reintegrating” Taiwan into China. The method by which this is achieved is highly significant, as a peaceful “reunification” is very much off the table, leaving only coercion via blockade or annexation via invasion.
This recent military exercise dubbed Joint Sword 2024B is the second drill this year and the fourth since August 2022 aimed at preparing for a blockade of Taiwan. The previous drill followed President Lai Ching-te’s inauguration speech, which Beijing interpreted as provocative. Similarly, Lai’s National Day speech last Friday served as a pretext for these new drills. Joint Sword 2024B represents a clear escalation on several fronts.
First, unlike previous drills, China did not give prior warning or disclose the locations of its drill in advance, nor did it state the end date or time. In doing so, China has taken the next step by blurring the line between drill and blockade.
Second, the Peoples Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and Chinese Coast Guard pushed within 24 nautical miles of Taiwan. This proximity to Taiwan is closer than in past exercises. From an international law perspective, the significance of this proximity cannot be overstated.
Lastly, this drill — while it didn’t feature major live fires like the August 2022 drill — combined China’s various forces and utilized ships and aircraft at a scale we haven’t seen before.
Ultimately, China has now demonstrated to Taiwan, the international community, and most importantly, the United States., that it could effectively impose a sea blockade on Taiwan at will. If we were to compare this situation to a theatrical production, this exercise is as close to a "dress rehearsal" as it gets. The underlying message from China to Taiwan and the U.S. is clear: “What are you going to do about it?” While this is certainly an escalation, I view it more as the next logical step in a long chain of events, one that may reach a breaking point in the coming years. President Xi has instructed Chinese military leadership to be ready by 2027 to invade Taiwan. However, it’s evident that China has demonstrated its ability to execute this plan at any time.
Key Takeaways
- China’s recent military exercises signal an escalation in its strategy toward Taipei, demonstrating its capability to rapidly blockade Taiwan.
- This is part of a broader, long-term strategy of “reunification,” with experts predicting a potential breaking point by 2027, though China has proven it can act sooner if needed.
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