In Global Guardian's "Your Questions Answered" series, our experts address pressing questions on current events, providing insight and analysis on the issues that impact your personal safety, business operations, and travel security.
Read below for insights from our analysts and subject matter experts, and get in touch with our team for further support and guidance.
This week’s question
OCTOBER 23, 2024
Officials in Ukraine and South Korea have accused North Korea of dispatching troops, estimated to number in the thousands perhaps, to aid Russia in the war in Ukraine. Does this partnership have any impact on the war beyond prolonging the conflict?
Global Guardian’s response
Provided by: Seth Krummrich, Vice President, Client Risk Management and Zev Faintuch, Head of Research and Intelligence at Global Guardian
North Korea typically does not act without China’s approval, which makes this move even more significant in the context of regional geopolitics. North Korea’s decision to send troops to support Russia reflects the growing strength of the alliances forming between Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran. This development suggests that these countries are willing to coordinate more openly and aggressively, despite the risks of provoking Western nations and NATO.
At the same time, South Korea has reportedly been considering strategic messaging by possibly sending weapons to Ukraine in response, potentially strengthening its own alliance with NATO.
One concerning implication of this partnership is what Russia might be providing North Korea in return. There’s speculation that expertise in North Korea's nuclear program or satellite technology for targeting may be part of the deal, raising serious security questions. However, from a practical perspective, North Korean troops are unlikely to have a substantial tactical impact—many will likely suffer significant losses if they reach the front lines, continuing Russia's strategy of using large numbers of troops to maintain pressure on Ukraine.
The real question remains the scale of this involvement, which varies based on reports from different sources. While the partnership could prolong the war, it also opens opportunities for South Korea to deepen its alliances with the U.S. and Japan, further solidifying their position in the region.
Key Takeaways
- North Korea’s involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war signals a deepening partnership between Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran, potentially reshaping geopolitical alliances.
- South Korea’s potential response to this development could strengthen its strategic ties with the U.S. and NATO, while further distancing itself from China.
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