In Global Guardian's "Your Questions Answered" series, our experts address pressing questions on current events, providing insight and analysis on the issues that impact your personal safety, business operations, and travel security.
Read below for insights from our analysts and subject matter experts, and get in touch with our team for further support and guidance.
This week’s question
September 18, 2024
On September 17, pagers used by members of the militant group Hezbollah exploded simultaneously in Lebanon and Syria, wounding several thousand people, some fatally. On September 18, more wireless device explosions were reported, and are on-going. Hezbollah has blamed Israel for the surprise attack, and a response is expected. Israel has not commented publicly. Do you have any intelligence into how this attack took place and insight into the potential ramifications?
Global Guardian’s response
Provided by: Zev Faintuch, Head of Research and Intelligence at Global Guardian
It appears there may have been a covert operation somewhere along the supply chain that led to the installation of explosive material in a batch of encrypted pagers, which Iran has been supplying to many of its proxies. This includes individuals within Syria as well. This news is significant due to its wide-ranging implications. The original attack was substantial, with approximately 3,000 people injured, around 500 of them seriously, and 11 fatalities reported. From an operational standpoint, many Hezbollah operatives are likely dealing with severe injuries, loss of sight, and even the loss of limbs, given the nature of the explosive devices.
This is a major intelligence victory, and the broader ramifications could be considerable. To me, this seems like a shaping operation. With access to these devices, there is a strong possibility that those behind the operation now have location data and insight into the movements and behaviors of key targets. This represents a critical strategic advantage.
Moreover, the chaos and confusion created by this incident could very well be a precursor to a larger, more comprehensive operation. This aligns with scenarios that have been discussed over the past year. Alternatively, given the timing, this could have been a preemptive strike aimed at disrupting a planned Hezbollah operation.
A key question that arises from this, however, is why Israel has not yet followed up with military action. One possible explanation could be related to diplomatic considerations, particularly promises made to the U.S. Another could be that Israel is holding back to gather more intelligence or it still may believe it can secure its objectives—such as restoring calm in the northern region—through diplomatic means rather than military engagement. A final explanation, one given by unnamed sources, is that this operation was necessitated by exposure. It’s possible this was a “use it or lose it” situation driven by tactical and not strategic imperatives.
Key Takeaways
Both Israel and Hezbollah – and Lebanon writ large – have significant domestic issues on top of the attritional war, and neither side wants a full-scale war. That said, there are few options left on the table. Hezbollah is now very vulnerable, and it will need to go beyond its previous methods of reprisal to save face. We expect the situation to continue to deteriorate before calm is restored.
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