In Global Guardian's "Your Questions Answered" series, our experts address pressing questions on current events, providing insight and analysis on the issues that impact your personal safety, business operations, and travel security.
Read below for insights from our analysts and subject matter experts, and get in touch with our team for further support and guidance.
This week’s question
September 11, 2024
This week, Ukraine struck Russia with one of its largest drone attacks of the war in multiple regions, from the border to suburban towns around Moscow. How could these recent strikes change the tide of the war?
Global Guardian’s response
Provided by: Zev Faintuch, Head of Research and Intelligence at Global Guardian
These recent strikes, while significant, are unlikely to change the course of the war on their own. As we’ve seen before, this is not the first time Ukraine has managed to strike deep into Russian territory using drones. The more interesting aspect of this event is the broader trend of Western support for Ukraine. It is likely these strikes were meant as a proof of concept, to demonstrate to its patrons that deep strikes don’t pose an existential escalation risk. The Netherlands recently became the first NATO member to authorize the use of its supplied weapons, namely F-16 fighter jets, by Ukraine outside of the Kursk region. This illustrates the incremental, nature of the West’s strategy when it comes to providing more advanced and lethal equipment to Ukraine. The U.S. and UK’s top diplomats are currently in Kyiv discussing ways to amend the restrictions on weapon use amid Ukraine’s looming strategic loses in Donbas.
Over time, we’re seeing fewer restrictions on the use of these weapons, which allows Ukraine to reach further into Russian territory. This trend does carry serious risks of escalation — some might argue it poses a nuclear risk — but as we’ve observed, Russia’s threats of using nuclear weapons have largely been bluster. Despite their warnings, we haven’t seen any real escalation to that level, and it seems increasingly unlikely.
In terms of Ukraine’s overall strategy, they’re continuing to dig in around the Kursk region, possibly positioning themselves for territorial swaps in future peace talks. By increasing the cost of war for Russia and targeting deeper into Russian territory, Ukraine aims to destabilize the Russian state, create internal dissent, or weaken the regime. This is a tactic they’ll likely continue to pursue, especially with drones, which are a relatively low-cost but highly effective means of warfare. As we’ve seen globally, even non-state actors like the Houthis in Yemen can use drones to inflict significant damage, such as blowing up a drone in Tel Aviv from 2,200 kilometers away. This is the world we live in now — where $50,000 or $60,000 can get you a drone capable of carrying explosives across several time zones.
It’s also worth noting that while Ukraine is capable of these deep strikes in Russia, it’s not an isolated phenomenon. Drones like those produced in Venezuela could pose a threat to other regions, including potentially the U.S. While it’s speculative, the possibility of drones reaching U.S. shores, particularly in the context of a new Cold War, shouldn’t be entirely dismissed.
Key Takeaways
Thanks to revolutions in asymmetric warfare, specifically the mass production of cheap, long-range drones, bringing the war home is becoming increasingly normal. The U.S. and its allies will continue to loosen restrictions on Ukraine’s use of their weapons on Russia, a trend likely to accelerate as Ukraine loses more of its territory in Donetsk oblast.
Standing by to Support
The Global Guardian team is standing by to support your duty of care and security requirements with a comprehensive suite of solutions. To learn more about our services, complete the form below or call us at + 1 (703) 566-9463.
