In Global Guardian's "Your Questions Answered" series, our experts address pressing questions on current events, providing insight and analysis on the issues that impact your personal safety, business operations, and travel security.
Read below for insights from our analysts and subject matter experts, and get in touch with our team for further support and guidance.
This week’s question
January 22, 2024
Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners were freed in a ceasefire deal, but President Trump says he is “not confident” the deal will hold. What is Global Guardian’s assessment of the current ceasefire and the future of post-war Gaza?Global Guardian’s response
Provided by: Zev Faintuch, Head of Research and Intelligence
The situation remains extremely uncertain. A case could be made for the ceasefire lasting beyond Phase I or faltering. Structurally, the dynamics have shifted slightly, with Iran's power projection—specifically its "Axis of Resistance"—now diminished. However, politically, we're almost back to where we were in early October 2023, minus the mass destruction, loss of life, and existence of hostages.
None of Israel's core objectives—eradicating Hamas and recovering all hostages—have been achieved. Hamas still holds hostages and is nominally back to controlling Gaza. There is immense domestic political pressure on the Israeli administration to continue military operations to fulfill these goals after some of the hostages return home.
At the same time, there is external pressure, particularly from the United States, to maintain stability. This balancing act will define the situation for the next 30 days or so, while Phase I of the ceasefire is still in effect.
It's critical to recognize this is only a ceasefire, not a peace deal. The new U.S. administration’s policy on Iran will play a pivotal role in shaping what happens next.
Key Takeaways
- External pressure from the U.S. may help maintain stability for now.
- A ceasefire is not the same as a peace deal, which would lead to a more secure future for the region.
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