The 4 Key Threats to Global Business in 2025

The world is entering a new era of complexity and unpredictability. The traditional post-World War II order–characterized by relative stability, predictable economic growth, and neoliberal principals–has given way to a multipolar environment marked by geopolitical competition over spheres of influence, economic fragmentation, and evolving security threats.

For businesses, this shift presents a new array of challenges that extend well beyond market dynamics and financial performance. No matter where you organization is located or where business takes you, you will undoubtedly feel the effects of what is taking place in China, Russia, Mexico, the Middle East, and other geopolitical hotspots.

The 2025 Worldwide Threat Assessment from Global Guardian sheds light on the evolving landscape, highlighting the critical challenges that organizations must prepare for to safeguard their people, assets, and operations. Below are the key threats from the report.

A New Era of Irregular Warfare

In 2025, businesses can no longer afford to be mere spectators in global conflicts. Nation-states like Russia, China, and Iran are increasingly using “hybrid warfare” tactics—ranging from cyberattacks and misinformation campaigns to sabotage and arson—targeting Western companies. These tactics, which blur the lines between war and peace, pose significant threats not only to a country’s defense industrial base but also to its technology, manufacturing, logistics, and even agriculture sectors.

The assessment warns that organizations need to shift from a reactive to a proactive posture. Traditional security measures are no longer enough when threats can materialize through seemingly benign channels, such as supply chains or digital communications. Executives and security professionals must understand that their organizations are on the front lines of an invisible conflict where opacity is a strategy, not an exception.

The Drone Threat: Corporate Espionage from Above

Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS), more commonly known as drones, are increasingly being used for corporate espionage, surveillance, and even direct attacks. These devices, which are often inexpensive and difficult to intercept, provide bad actors with a new and versatile tool to infiltrate corporate environments. The report details how drones have been used in espionage operations, including incidents where drones facilitated cyberattacks by establishing physical proximity to a target's network.

For businesses, the threat extends beyond mere data breaches. Drones can be used to gather sensitive information, intimidate executives, or even disrupt operations by targeting physical infrastructure. The assessment emphasizes that while technological solutions are evolving, most private organizations remain unprepared to counter this growing threat effectively. It calls for a multi-layered security strategy that includes advanced detection technologies and robust policies to manage drone-related risks.

Risks in the “Amerisphere”

The United States' shift to a more transactional and hard power focused foreign policy introduces new risks for businesses operating in Mexico, Canada and the U.S.'s near-abroad, labeled the “Amerisphere.” The report highlights the potential fallout from this strategy, including heightened compliance risks, supply chain disruptions, and the possibility of increased violence and extortion from organized crime groups.

The designation of Mexican cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) could have far-reaching implications for businesses. The U.S. government’s broad definition of “material support” could expose firms to significant legal and financial liabilities, even if they are only indirectly linked to cartel-affiliated entities. Companies with operations in Mexico need to reevaluate their compliance and risk management strategies and prepare for a more volatile regulatory environment.

Middle East in Flux

The Middle East continues to be a region of significant strategic concern. The weakening of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” network to include the fall of the Assad regime in Syria have created both opportunities and challenges. While the shift in power dynamics could eventually lead to greater regional stability, the assessment warns that Iran remains a potent chaos actor capable of destabilizing its neighbors through proxy forces and asymmetric tactics. The piece also argues that the new government in Syria risks falling into many traps, auguring poorly for regional stability.

For organizations with interests in the Middle East, this evolving situation demands vigilance and adaptability. The report suggests that companies closely monitor geopolitical developments and maintain flexible security and operational plans to respond to potential threats. With Türkiye, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the U.S. potentially seeking to capitalize on Iran’s vulnerabilities, businesses must be prepared for sudden shifts in the regional risk environment.

Preparing for the Unexpected

The 2025 Worldwide Threat Assessment underscores that the era of predictable risks is over. The new geopolitical reality requires businesses to adopt a forward-looking approach to threat management. This means not only identifying potential risks but also implementing robust prevention measures to mitigate them before they materialize.

To gain a deeper understanding of these critical issues and explore actionable insights to protect your organization, read the full 2025 Worldwide Threat Assessment from Global Guardian. The report offers a comprehensive analysis of emerging risks and provides strategic guidance to help organizations navigate this precarious era safely and effectively.

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