Taiwan Strait | Marburg Virus

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.

Cross-Strait Tension Mounting Ahead of U.S. Election

On 14 October 2024, the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) commenced Joint Sword 2024B, a 13-hour long exercise simulating a blockade of Taiwan. Joint Sword 2024B is the second drill this year and marks the fourth major PLA drill around Taiwan since August 2022. A chaotic presidential transition in the United States (U.S.) increases the likelihood that China’s next war game is not just demonstration but an opening act.

Over the last 4 years, Chinese military aircraft and vessels have entered Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) on a near-daily basis, with activity spiking during exercises. Joint Sword 2024B featured 153 aircraft, 14 naval vessels, and 12 Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) vessels and included sorties from the Liaoning aircraft carrier. The drills also took place closer to Taiwan's coast than previous exercises, featuring an expanded role for the Chinese Coast Guard. Joint Sword 2024B takes PLA activity around Taiwan one major step further by blurring the line between drill and blockade.

• PLA live fire drills can potentially lead to abrupt commercial flight cancellations, impacting travel.
• Global Guardian recommends that firms with exposure to East Asia plan for the possibility of a blockade or invasion of Taiwan in the coming 36 months. For more information on this topic see our 2024 Taiwan Shock Index.

Recent Events

• 26 October: U.S. approves USD $2 billion Taiwan air defense arms package to include three National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS). China condemned the sale and threatened countermeasures.
• 21 October: China holds live-fire drills near the Pingtan Islands in response to USS Higgins and Royal Canadian HMCS Vancouver’s transit through the Taiwan Strait on 20 October.
• 14 October: PLA launches Joint Sword 2024B around Taiwan in response to Taiwan President Lai’s National Day speech.
• 13 October: The Taiwan Ministry of National Defense signs formal purchase agreements to procure as many as 1,000 loitering drones from U.S. defense companies. 
• 10 October: President Lai Ching-te Delivers Taiwan National Day Address.

Analysis

Joint Sword 2024B featured two additional coercive elements as compared to the previous three drills: surprise and sanctions. The flash exercise had no warning or disclosure of closed military zone locations, nor did the PLA state the end date or time. In parallel, Beijing sanctioned a Taiwanese lawmaker and billionaire Robert Tsao, as well as three U.S. defense firms and ten senior executives.

Joint Sword 2024B is part and parcel of China’s salami-cutting strategy. In this strategy, China carefully and teleologically maneuvers, disguising offensive actions as defensive, allowing it to secure a strategic edge incrementally. This tactic leaves its targets – all countries it neighbors at sea – with a difficult dilemma: slow attrition or rapid brinksmanship.

Looking Forward

China has now demonstrated to the international community, Taiwan, and the United States that it could effectively impose a maritime blockade of Taiwan at will. The Joint Sword Drills are steps in a long chain of events that may reach a breaking point in the coming 36 months. CIA Director William Burns has publicly stated that the intelligence community believes that President Xi Jinping has ordered the PLA to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027.

Beijing can leverage many possible triggers to impose a blockade. These range from (but are not limited to:

• Domestic Taiwanese crises (political or typhoon-related)
• Delivery of strategic military assets (air defense systems, uncrewed surface vehicles, ATACMS)
• U.S.-China trade negotiations
• High-level Taiwan-U.S. bilateral meetings
• Formal changes to the America’s One China Policy or Taiwan Relations Act
  
  

Marburg Virus Outbreak in Rwanda: What Travelers Need to Know

The recent outbreak of Marburg virus disease (MVD) in Rwanda has raised concerns for travelers planning to visit the country. As of October 31, 2024, Rwanda has reported 65 confirmed cases, and 15 deaths related to this rare but severe hemorrhagic fever. Global Guardian Medical Director Dr. Shelly Weisenfeld notes that “with the memory of the Ebola virus and known similarities with Marburg, the WHO and CDC quickly collaborated in tracking the illness and investigating vaccine options." While the outbreak appears to be contained and the risk to most travelers remains low, it is crucial to stay informed and take necessary precautions.

Affected Areas

The outbreak has primarily affected several districts in Rwanda, including:

• Kigali (Nyarugenge, Kicukiro, and Gasabo districts)
• Kamonyi (Southern province)
• Nyagatare and Gatsibo (Eastern province)
• Rubavu (Western province)
• Most cases have been reported among healthcare workers in Kigali hospitals

Transmission and Symptoms

Marburg virus is typically spread through:

• Direct contact with bodily fluids of infected individuals
• Indirect contact with contaminated surfaces or materials
• Contact with infected animals, particularly fruit bats

Early symptoms of MVD include:

• High fever
• Severe headaches
• Muscle aches
• Diarrhea
• Nausea and vomiting
• Rash (usually on the chest)

Travel Precautions

If planning to travel to Rwanda, consider the following advice:

• Practice good hygiene: Wash your hands frequently or use hand sanitizers.
• Avoid contact with sick individuals: Steer clear of people showing symptoms of illness.
• Stay away from animals: Avoid contact with wild animals, especially bats and monkeys.
• Be cautious at funerals: Avoid direct contact with bodies during burial rituals.
• Monitor your health: Be aware of any symptoms and seek medical attention immediately if you feel unwell.
• Follow local guidelines: Adhere to any restrictions or preventive measures implemented by Rwandan authorities.
• Be prepared for health screenings: Expect temperature checks at ports of entry, hotels, and tourist sites.

Impact on Travel

While lockdown measures have been ruled out, travelers should be aware of the following:

• Gatherings of more than 50 people for funerals of Marburg victims are banned.
• Some establishments have shifted to remote working.
• Neighboring countries like Kenya and Uganda have implemented surveillance measures at entry points.
• The United States has announced health screening for inbound travelers from Rwanda.

South Korea 'Dramatically Strengthening' Nuclear Force Amid Russia Threat

"The addition of North Korean troops does show that Putin needs reinforcements. But what's more concerning is that the well of North Korean troops is practically unlimited."

In Newsweek, Global Guardian Senior Intelligence Analyst Zev Faintuch provided his perspective alongside other experts on the deployment of North Korean troops into the Russian invasion of Ukraine is impacting the conflict, as well as the geopolitical order. 

At approximately 02:30 local time on 26 October 2024, Israel began strikes on Iran in retaliation for its massive 01 October missile attack on Israel. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesman announced that “…The Israel Defense Force is now precisely attacking military targets in Iran." Initial local reports indicate explosions near Tehran, Mashhad, and Karaj in Iran. Both United States (U.S.) and Israeli officials expect a military response from Iran. Israel is believed to have struck the IRGC building in Tehran. Israeli airstrikes against Syrian Regime Air Defenses in Suwayda and Homs were also reported.

Travel disruptions in the region can be expected in the coming days.

Protecting the Security of All Forms of Family Capital with Dale Buckner

"When you frame the world for what it is — not what you want it to be — and you think about these different threat vectors, that's really the calculus...that we should be thinking about as family offices."

On the FOXCast CEO Series from Family Office Exchange, Global Guardian CEO Dale Buckner shares his views on the top threats that enterprise families and their family offices face in today's global landscape. Dale also discusses the limitations of insurance in mitigating significant risks, encouraging families to understand coverage gaps, and the increasing role of technology in family offices, which enhances productivity but introduces new cybersecurity risks. 

Brutal killing of Mexican mayor sparks anger, skepticism of Sheinbaum plan

"She doesn't have many good options to try and combat this, but I think (the murder of Arcos) is definitely a wakeup call that something has got to change."

In a Reuters article, Global Guardian's Director of Intelligence, Michael Ballard, comments on newly inaugurated President Claudia Sheinbaum's ability to address cartel violence in Mexico in the wake of Mayor Alejandro Arcos' murder.

EPISODE 701: Col. (Ret) Seth Krummrich, Vice President of Client Risk Management at Global Guardian

“I was able to get in there and take all my hard lessons learned from Pakistani Tribal Areas to Sadr City, and all the places in between, and help those executives be able to excel wherever they go.”

Global Guardian VP of Client Risk Management Seth Krummrich joins SOFREP Radio to discuss his 28-year career in the U.S. Army and his transition from Special Forces to corporate America. He shares insights on how his journey has uniquely prepared him to support clients and offers valuable lessons for military personnel looking to pursue a similar career path.

Cameroon won’t say where the president is

"'Other countries like Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have already been destabilised,' Chafetz said, citing military, commercial and political presence of foreign powers in Cameroon as threat factors."

In Semafor, Global Guardian intelligence analyst Joe Chafetz weighed in on recent developments in Cameroon, where the president has not been seen for weeks and the nation is dealing with an armed separatist conflict in its English-speaking regions and a counterinsurgency operation against Boko Haram.

SPECIAL REPORT

Hurricane Milton, currently a Category 4 storm, is expected to make landfall tonight just south of Tampa Bay along the Gulf coast of Florida. According to current estimates, Milton is expected to bring hurricane-force winds for the entirety of its trip east across central Florida along with heavy rain. Storm surge will impact nearly the entire Gulf coast of Florida The most at-risk areas between Anna Maria Island and Boca Grande face 10-15 feet of storm surge. The surge could move several miles inland. Portions of Tampa Bay will see 8-12 feet of surge, though the latest models show it will avoid the worst-case scenario. Portions of the Atlantic coast will see 3-5 feet of storm surge as well as inland flooding due to heavy rain.

• The following airports are closed:
  
  
  • Tampa International Airport 
  • St. Pete-Clearwater International Airport
  • Orlando International Airport
  • Southwest Florida International Airport
  • Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport

• Mandatory and voluntary evacuation orders have been issued for communities along the Gulf coast. Heavy traffic out of Florida has been reported, along with gasoline shortages.
• Global Guardian has pre-positioned emergency response personnel, equipment, food, water, and other resources for immediate deployment in the aftermath of the storm. 
  
  
  

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES

• To view Global Guardian’s 2024 Hurricane Preparedness Guide, click here.
• For those currently in Florida, we also advise consulting the Florida Division of Emergency Management here.
  
  

Middle East | Mexico

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.

October 7th War Enters a New Phase

On 01 October, Iran launched a retaliatory strike on Israel with some 180 medium-range ballistic missiles to avenge the killings of Hamas’ political leader in Tehran and Hezbollah’s senior leadership, including its leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut. On 30 September, Israel commenced ground incursions into Lebanon as part of a “new phase” of its conflict with Hezbollah. The security and humanitarian situation in much of Lebanon is rapidly deteriorating as flights and other operations are disrupted across the region. As Israel plans its next steps, this new phase of the October 7th War is likely to expand into a more direct confrontation with Iran.

Israeli forces clashed with Hezbollah fighters inside Lebanon on 02 and 03 October as the IDF Air Force continued to strike Hezbollah targets in south Beirut and elsewhere in the country. The IDF claims to have killed roughly 100 Hezbollah fighters and has lost at least eight of its troops over two days of combat. Over a million people have been displaced in Lebanon so far and more than one hundred thousand people remain displaced in Israel, as Hezbollah continues to pummel Israel cities and towns from the border south to Haifa. Israel has implemented a partial blockade of Lebanon to prevent Iran from flying in arms and aid to Hezbollah and the IDF Air Force is conducting strikes on major crossings between Lebanon and Syria. Air travel disruptions stemming from Iran’s missile strike on Israel on 01 October have continued in anticipation of further strikes. Long lines have developed at regional airports as flights are canceled, delayed, or diverted away from the region’s airspace.

• Global Guardian recommends against all travel to Lebanon and all non-essential travel to Israel.
• Firms with personnel in Lebanon should arrange for their evacuation.
• Firms with personnel in Israel should have contingency plans for evacuation and shelter-in-place orders.

Recent Events

• 08 October: Following large Hezbollah rocket barrage, Israel closes schools in the Haifa area.
• 06 October: Iran cancels all commercial flights overnight.
• 03 October: Israel and Hezbollah forces clash in several towns on the Lebanese side of the border.
• 01 October: Iran fires 180 ballistic missiles at targets in central and southern Israel.
• 30 September: Israel launches limited ground incursions into Lebanon.
• 27 September: Israel kills Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah in an airstrike on the Dahiya suburb south of Beirut. Some 20 other high-level Hezbollah and Iranian officers are killed in the same strike.
• 23 September: Israel begins preparatory strikes across Lebanon.
• 17-19 September: Israel conducts two waves of attacks on sabotaged pagers, walkie-talkies, and other communications devices and decapitates Hezbollah’s Rwandan leadership in a bunker. The attacks killed dozens and wounded thousands of possible Hezbollah fighters.

Analysis

Hezbollah is a key Iranian strategic asset, as the proximity of the group’s substantial missile arsenal to Israel provides Iran with a “loaded gun” — the threat of an all-out missile attack by Hezbollah balances Israel’s nuclear deterrent through mutually assured destruction. Israel’s overarching goal is to reverse Iran’s “unity of areas concept” by defanging Hamas and Hezbollah to the point where they can no longer be used as a strategic cudgel against Israel. Hamas’s military threat has been eliminated and Hezbollah’s strategic threat is being rapidly eroded by the day. While the IDF and Hezbollah have been exchanging fire over the border since 08 October 2023, Israel has decimated its leadership, and is intensifying airstrikes on its high-value assets. Israel’s incursion into Lebanon itself represents a much more direct threat to Hezbollah’s value as an Iranian deterrent.

In this light, Iran’s ballistic strike on Israel on 01 October was Tehran’s attempt to re-establish deterrence and mitigate Israel’s current escalation dominance. But the attack was too robust to be ignored and by targeting Israel’s nuclear reactor and offshore oil assets, Iran has opened the door for Israel to respond in kind. Israel is poised to attack the Iranian military (air defense/radar, missile bases), economic (oil refineries/production facilities/export terminals), and nuclear sites or a combination thereof. Iran will soon need to decide whether to:

• Continue an attrition campaign: Maintain extreme political and economic and high military pressure on Israel by continuing the October 7^th War via its “ring of fire” (regional proxies). But it risks slowly losing its vice around Israel as Lebanon and northern Israel continue to come under fire.
• Cut its losses: Allow Hezbollah to be severely degraded while seeking assurances that its own territory will not be further attacked. This could involve a new diplomatic agreement with the U.S. over its nuclear program and a partial revision to the 2005 status quo in the region.
• Escalate: Engage in a more direct war with Israel by expending Hezbollah’s remaining strategic weapons, launching more medium-range missiles into Israel and mining the Strait of Hormuz, or targeting Saudi oil infrastructure.

Looking Forward

Israel has promised to respond to Iran’s missile attack and is likely preparing strikes on Iranian targets. President Biden has signaled that Israel may receive U.S. support for such strikes while warning Israel not to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. The scope and scale of the attack could reshape the regional security landscape and prompt an Iranian nuclear breakout.

Iran sent a message to the United States through Qatar saying “the phase of unilateral self-restraint" has ended and has stated that an Israeli attack on Iran would be met with an “unconventional” response. Iran’s other proxies in the region, particularly in Iraq and Syria, are likely to attempt to join direct fighting against the IDF in Lebanon in the case of escalation.

The Houthis may restart threatening Saudi oil infrastructure.

War in Sinaloa: Violence Erupts Between Los Chapitos and El Mayo Factions

Since September 9, 2024, the Mexican state of Sinaloa has witnessed a significant increase in cartel violence as the two dominant factions of the Sinaloa Cartel wage a brutal internal war. The conflict pits Los Chapitos, sons of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, against allies of Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada and his son Mayo Flaco, resulting in widespread violence, civilian casualties, and a climate of fear across the state. The violence kicked off several weeks after El Mayo Zambada was “kidnapped” by Joaquin Guzman and brought to the U.S. for arrest by authorities.

Escalating Violence

The violence has been concentrated in Culiacán, the state capital, but has spread to surrounding areas as well. Some key developments include:

• At least 53 homicides reported, with over dozens of people missing.
• Gruesome displays of violence, including tortured bodies left on highways with symbolic objects placed on them.
• Narco blockades and clashes between cartel members and security forces.
• Seizure of significant weaponry, including assault rifles, armored vehicles, and even drones.

Government Response

• The Mexican government has deployed over 2,200 additional troops to the region. In a significant development, the Mexican military took the step of disarming the entire Culiacán Municipal Police force on October 2, 2024. Law enforcement is now carried out by the military.
• This action was taken due to suspicions of collusion between local law enforcement and organized crime groups as well as corruption among municipal officers. Similar steps have been taken against other state and local law enforcement agencies in the past due to suspicion of collusion and corruption.

Propaganda

On September 29, 2024, El Mayos dropped propaganda flyers from drones over Culiacán, accusing Los Chapitos of betraying El Mayo and causing unnecessary violence in Sinaloa. The message also claimed that Los Chapitos were responsible for the deaths of innocent people and urged the public to support El Mayo's faction. This tactic is reminiscent of nation-state conflicts where propaganda flyers were dropped from aircraft on residents.

Impact on Civilians

The ongoing conflict has severely disrupted daily life in Sinaloa:

• Schools and businesses have been closed and business hours are reduced.
• Residents live in constant fear, with violence erupting unpredictably.
• Innocent bystanders have been caught in the crossfire.

"This gets resolved when we finish our dealings with Iran, whatever that looks like in the long term."

In a new piece on Fox News, Global Guardian VP of Client Risk Management Seth Krummrich discusses the latest developments in the U.S. Navy's attempts to contain attacks by the Yemeni Houthi rebels, and how this conflict impacts the larger Middle East today.