March Risk Barometer

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.

The Potential Geopolitical and Security Ramifications of the USAID Shutdown

On 26 February, the White House announced plans to cut over 90% of USAID contracts. This followed the 20 January executive order halting work at USAID for most employees and contractors, effectively freezing foreign aid disbursements. While a 05 March Supreme Court ruling required the administration to pay aid organizations for work already completed under contract (around $2 billion), the decision does not otherwise change the situation. As the world’s largest single donor, USAID disburses approximately $40 billion of the $68 billion allocated by Congress for foreign aid.

While at this stage, many of the long-term consequences are unclear, disruptions to the global aid apparatus could destabilize certain governments, introduce anti-American sentiment, embolden non-state actors, and introduce an opportunity for other countries to step in and increase their own influence abroad. At the same time, these cuts will deprive corrupt institutions of money and eliminate the funding source that a handful of terrorist, criminal, and militant groups would divert and hijack for their own purposes.

Recommendations:

• Closely monitor the impact to countries with frequent corporate travel or established offices, especially when it comes to anti-American sentiment. It should be noted that such anti-American sentiment is most likely to flare up when leaders, dealing with hostile populations, shift blame for disappearing aid and services to the U.S. Not all countries will do this and as such we don’t foresee a blanket shift in anti-American sentiment, instead it will be on a case-by-case basis.
• Consider enhanced security measures such as vetted transportation, executive protection agents, and pre-travel security briefings when traveling to impacted countries.

The Immediate Humanitarian Impact

In the short term, the withdrawal of USAID funding has created gaps in the supply of food, clean water, and essential medicines for millions of people, primarily in Sub-Saharan Africa. Countries like Nigeria will need to divert scarce financial resources to ensure continuity of care for the next several months—a diversion that comes at the cost of other public services. The effects from these disruptions are potentially long-lasting.

Geopolitical Ramifications and State Stability

The ripple effects of this aid freeze extend beyond immediate healthcare challenges. USAID’s long-standing role has also been a cornerstone of U.S. soft power, reinforcing stability in fragile states. With local governments now diverting resources to needs previously funded by aid, there is potential for a dangerous chain reaction in which both non-state actors and foreign governments seek to fill that void. There are also scenarios in which the halting of misused aid will positively impact certain areas.

Potential negative security impacts include:

• Loss of Legitimacy and Increased Insecurity: Many African nations, having recently gained independence in the '60s and '70s, have built legitimacy on their ability to provide basic services. The erosion of these services leads to a decline in state legitimacy, opening the door for increased violence and the exploitation of discontent by militant groups. As government budgets tighten, the classic “guns vs. butter” dilemma forces leaders to make difficult trade-offs, potentially undermining security spending and sparking further instability.
• Strained Counterterrorism Efforts: USAID funding has even played a role in maintaining security within counterterrorism operations. For example, funds that helped pay guards at ISIS prison camps are now at risk, with any delays or disruptions potentially increasing the likelihood of prison breakouts and further destabilizing already volatile regions.
• A New Global Order: With the U.S. retreating from its role as the primary aid distributor, other state actors—including China, Russia, Turkey, and India—along with non-state jihadist organizations, may step in to fill the vacuum. In the long-term, a shift could fundamentally alter the global balance of power, diminishing U.S. influence and paving the way for new geopolitical alliances and conflicts.

Potential positive security outcomes include:

• Reduction in Indirect Militant Funding: The “guns vs. butter” dilemma also applies to militant groups including Hamas, Ansar Allah (Houthis) and various Islamic State franchises across Africa, where aid is diverted and hijacked by terror groups so they can administer necessities, often for a profit. Cutting aid to these war-torn areas may, in fact, degrade the legitimacy of these groups.
• Reduction in Protests: Many USAID-funded NGOs are responsible for organizing labor and environmental protests and lawfare campaigns, particularly in LATAM. A pause or cut to LATAM NGO funding may reduce the funding and organizational capacity for mass-protest movements, reducing transport and operational disruptions.

Implications for Global Stability, Corporate Operations, and International Travelers

The shutdown of USAID not only threatens humanitarian programs; its implications also extend to the realms of corporate operations and international travel:

• Global Stability: The disruption of aid services is likely to exacerbate state fragility in regions like Sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, and South America. As governments reallocate resources to address immediate crises, long-term development projects may be sidelined, potentially creating power vacuums that extremist groups can exploit.
• Corporate Operations: Businesses operating in affected regions could face heightened risks due to increased political instability and violence, along with anti-American sentiment should local governments attempt to shift blame to the U.S. for cutting aid. Supply chain disruptions, local unrest, and a weakened state infrastructure are all likely risks facing corporate operations.
• International Travelers: With the possible decline in essential services and security in key regions, international travelers may encounter increased risks. The lack of robust local support systems can lead to inadequate healthcare, compromised public safety, and a general deterioration in the quality of services that tourists and expatriates have come to expect.
  
  

CUSTOM INTELLIGENCE