"While the reactive nature of a GSOC has been sufficient in the past, it is inadequate in the sophisticated and rapidly changing security scene of today."
In Security Management, Global Guardian CEO Dale Buckner writes that businesses and organizations need to reevaluate their current Global Security Operations Center (GSOC) solutions in the face of high-caliber threats.
"If nothing else, Kyiv’s foray into Kursk has demonstrated that Ukrainian forces are capable of complicated mechanized advances."
In a new piece in USA Today, Global Guardian Senior Intelligence Analyst Zev Faintuch and Intelligence Analyst Joe Chafetz weighed in on the impact of Ukraine's recent incursion into Russian territory, and whether the boost to morale is worth the potential strategic repercussions.
In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.
On 06 August, Bangladesh President Shahabuddin announced the dissolution of Parliament, allowing for the formation of an interim government with 2006 Nobel Peace Prize winner Muhammed Yunus to serve as leader. After Prime Minister Hasina resigned and fled the country on 05 August, angry mobs ransacked police headquarters in Dhaka, killing several police officers. Graphic images show bodies of policemen hanging from bridges and in beaten piles. Police then announced an indefinite strike, opening the door to more mob violence, vandalism, looting, and destruction. The situation in Bangladesh remains fluid as violence continues nationwide, stemming from student-led anti-quota protests starting in early July.
In addition to Muhammad Yunus leading the interim government, opposition Bangladesh National Party (BNP) leader Khaleda Zia was released. The interim government is also working to have thousands of detained activists released from jail. This will help bring all key voices to the table as the temporary government attempts to restore order and political stability.
In addition to police being targeted, there are reports of Muslim mobs attacking, raping, and killing members of the Hindu minority. The country has a long history of religious violence and there is concern of a larger pogrom targeting Hindus if the interim government cannot take control of the situation. Rail services remain suspended indefinitely. While the internet blockages and curfews were removed or lessened, a heightened security presence remains in place and use of force by police to disperse unauthorized demonstrations is possible.
Violent protests erupted across Bangladesh in early July, with university students leading the charge against the reinstatement of quotas in government jobs. Initially confined to university campuses, the protests quickly spread to major cities such as Dhaka, Chittagong, Rajshahi, Khulna, and Barisal. These demonstrations then escalated into large-scale marches and sit-ins, blocking key traffic points and resulting in violent clashes between protesters, police, and pro-quota activists. Eventually, the student-led protests morphed into violent, nationwide anti-government protests and riots. The unrest resulted in a nationwide curfew, restrictions on internet use, mass arrests of over 10,000 people, and the use of live ammunition by police, resulting in the deaths of more than 250 people.
The mass unrest and violence seen just over a month after anti-quota protests began shows how quickly action around an issue can spiral out of control, snowballing into nationwide mob violence and proving just how fragile Bangladesh is in its ability to withstand civil unrest.
The government's quota system for civil service posts has been controversial since 1972 when it was first instituted. Critics assert the quota system favors supporters of the ruling Awami Leage party, used to stack public jobs with loyalists, further entrenching their rule. Other factors have contributed to the mass unrest and violence, including the crackdown on student protesters by police, youth unemployment (30 million young people), and general disapproval of the ruling Awami League party. Many Bangladeshis, especially young people, view former Prime Minister Hasina through this lens. Bangladesh has a long history of military rule, including coups. Most recently, the army presided over a caretaker government from 2007-2008 before Parliamentary elections were held.
The resignation of PM Hasina, dissolution of Parliament, and formation of an interim government led by Nobel Peace Prize winner Muhammad Yunus do not give confidence that law and order will be restored any time soon, especially as the country’s entire police force is on indefinite strike. The military may take over entirely and deploy soldiers nationwide to establish law and order.
There are growing concerns that mob violence will spread and grow, and a military crackdown could further enrage and embolden anti-government protesters in the same way that heavy-handed police tactics garnered sympathy for the student protesters, leading to additional unrest and violence. All of this, combined with the policies enacted by the military in 2007-2008 (large numbers of arbitrary arrests, cases of torture and killing with impunity under state of emergency rules, and restrictions on political and civil liberties), means any military-led government will not be met with the same welcoming attitude as the caretaker government was first met with in 2007.
There is ongoing potential for additional unrest as mobs act with impunity across the country while police officers go on indefinite strike. This is particularly true around key urban areas, including Dhaka, Chittagong, Khulna, and Sylhet. This risk will stay high as long as the government is unable to secure law and order.
Key TakeawaysThis situation showcases how quickly protest activity over a single issue (quota system) can snowball into a much larger and more destructive scenario involving unrest, riots, killings, and political instability. Grievances unrelated to the original issue can take over the messaging, and in this case even after the quota rule was rolled back, protests and unrest continued. Bangladesh has a history of religious violence and societal stability is fragile in the best of times. Companies and travelers operating in places like Bangladesh need to be aware of this fragility and plan accordingly. |
The recent (28 July 2024) presidential election in Venezuela has plunged the country into a state of unrest and political turmoil, with widespread protests and international condemnation following incumbent President Nicolás Maduro's contested victory. Impacted cities include the capital Caracas as well as Maracaibo and San Cristobal. At least 17 people are reported dead across the country due to unrest and clashes with security forces, while the government claims at least 2,000 people have been arrested. While many countries have denounced the results, others such as China, Iran, Cuba, Honduras, Nicaragua, Bolivia, and Russia were quick to recognize Maduro as the winner. Despite the clearly fraudulent results and resulting unrest, it is likely Maduro will remain in power if he continues to enjoy the political and economic support of the aforementioned countries.
Maduro’s declared victory (51.2% to 44%) over opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia is widely disputed and believed to be fraudulent. On 01 August, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken announced that the Maduro-controlled National Election Council (CNE) results were “deeply flawed.” Supporting evidence provided by Blinken paints a convincing picture that the results were indeed fraudulent:
The following countries severed or suspended diplomatic ties with Venezuela:
Several of these countries have suspended flights with Venezuela as well. Additionally, the Organization of American States said it would request an arrest warrant for Maduro through the International Criminal Court; however, the group failed to reach the 18-vote threshold to pass a resolution asking the CNE to publish voting data.
Key allies Russia, China, Iran, Bolivia, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Cuba, among others, quickly recognized Maduro as the winner of the election.
The Maduro administration has long used its control over public institutions to maintain power, and the lead-up to the July election was no different. The opposition candidate González was selected by the Democratic Unitary Platform (PUD) only after former legislator María Corina Machado was barred from holding office for 15 years for alleged corruption after winning the 2023 primary vote. The primary results were also suspended by the Supreme Court amid allegations of fraud, and other opposition figures, including former governor Henrique Capriles and opposition primary commission member Corina Yoris, were barred from running.
Despite more than a decade of dire economic conditions (GDP shrank 74% from 2014-2020 before recovering slightly) and political instability, the Maduro regime has survived multiple destabilization attempts including a failed 2018 assassination attempt against President Maduro, two uprisings by members of the Bolivarian National Guard in 2019, massive anti-government protests also in 2019, a failed mercenary raid in 2020, and now mass unrest following fraudulent elections. As long as the Maduro regime can afford to keep the army, police, and pro-government militias paid, fed, and in relatively good health, the chances of him exiting office are slim. Political and economic support from Cuba, Russia, Iran, China, and elsewhere are key to maintaining regime stability.
The decade-long crisis and surge in violence has already triggered a mass exodus of some seven million refugees, and the latest round of unrest and violence is likely to trigger more migration. The disputed election results may further exacerbate economic instability and international isolation as the Maduro regime blames foreign interference for fomenting unrest.
Continued nationwide anti-government demonstrations are highly likely. The potential for escalated violence between protesters and security forces remains high. Further international diplomatic and economic measures against Venezuela are expected.
Key TakeawaysThe Maduro regime is likely to weather this latest round of anti-government unrest in the same way it weathered previous attempts at destabilization — through use of force, control of the media and communications, and with continued economic and political support of international patrons like China, Russia, Cuba, Nicaragua, Bolivia, and others. |
"Avoid known hotspots that focus on Islam and immigration including mosques, the offices of lawyers who provide legal aid for immigrants and community centers that cater to immigrant communities... The majority of protests and counter-protests revolve around these sites.”
In TravelPulse, Global Guardian VP of Client Risk Management Seth Krummrich contributed his perspective to whether travel to the U.K., following a knife attack and subsequent unrest and riots, is advised right now.
"For every client I have in Israel that’s traveling and doing work there, I ask ’Is your current travel critical for your business’ continuity model? And if it is, then I advise taking some risk reduction measures. But in cases when it’s not critical or its routine travel, I suggest now is a perfect time to delay travel.”
In TravelPulse, Global Guardian VP of Client Risk Management Seth Krummrich provided an in-depth perspective on the evolving situation in the Middle East in the wake of Israel's assassinations in Iran and Lebanon, and gave guidance on how travelers to the region should approach security and safety.
On 31 July, the U.S. State Department issued a Level 4 Travel Advisory for Lebanon, advising citizens not to travel to the country amid increasing tensions between Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran. The warning comes after Israel allegedly assassinated Hamas' political leader in a supposedly hardened apartment in Tehran, Iran. The Tehran strike itself comes a day after Israel eliminated a senior Hezbollah commander in southern Beirut in a targeted airstrike. All eyes are on Iran to see how it chooses to respond. The recent events have also triggered flight disruptions in the region.
“The bigger the event, the more coverage it has geographically, then that is where the greatest exposure is going to be."
In Family Wealth Report, Global Guardian CEO Dale Buckner weighs in on how to handle physical security when attending some of the world's biggest events, including the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris.
“You might see a disintegration of the Sinaloa cartel into two very powerful groups. There could be real violence in northwest Mexico where they have the most control."
In an article for Border Report, Global Guardian Director of Intelligence Michael Ballard shared his perspective on the fallout of the arrest of two high-level members of the Sinaloa cartel, and what changes the arrest could portend.
“They’ve put a very effective ring around Paris and you look for the very soft underbelly, and that’s everything outside Paris.”
In Bloomberg, Global Guardian CEO Dale Buckner weighed in on the attacks and sabotage that have already taken place during the 2024 Paris Olympic Games.
"From a pure security perspective, I think Western governments, Western militaries, cyber agencies, security agencies from around the world are all supporting. And they have put their best foot forward…. I think you’re going to have a very secure environment, as much as feasible. But there are things that will never be completely secure and there are elements that can never be perfectly secure."
Following the rail attacks in France on the opening day of the Olympics, Global Guardian CEO Dale Buckner spoke with Sarah Campbell on the BBC to discuss the unique security risks of these Olympic Games and how Global Guardian has approached safeguarding clients in a challenging environment.
