January Risk Barometer

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.

Risks from Terrorism Loom Large Amid Recent Surge

The recent surge in extremist activity in the U.S. and Europe over the past year has increased concern regarding global terrorism amid a shifting geopolitical landscape. As we transition from the Biden administration to Trump's second term, the world faces an increasingly volatile risk environment, with ISIS and its affiliates capitalizing on political instability and regional conflicts. Geopolitical tensions are intensifying across multiple fronts: the ongoing war in Ukraine and North Korea's growing involvement, escalating China-Taiwan relations, Turkey's expanding influence in the Middle East, a post-Assad Syria, and increasing U.S. presence in Latin America. These converging flashpoints suggest 2025 could mark a period of unprecedented volatility.

The Escalating Threat

The New Year's Day attack in New Orleans by Shamsud-Din Bahar Jabbar, a U.S. Army veteran who drove his vehicle through a crowd of New Year’s revelers before opening fire on police, claiming 14 lives, serves as a tragic reminder of ISIS’ ability to radicalize, influence, and in some cases direct extremists to carry out attacks on their behalf. It wasn’t enough for Jabbar to pledge loyalty to the group online: he had an ISIS flag on the truck used in the attack, clearly meant to instill fear.

This incident is not isolated but part of a broader pattern of violence that has unfolded across the globe in recent years. From the Philippines to France, Moscow to Vienna to Kabul, ISIS-inspired or directed attacks have left hundreds of deaths in their wake, targeting diverse locations and demographics.

Key Factors to the Resurgence

1. U.S. Influence: The U.S. no longer has the reach it once had in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Africa, and the Philippines and the with the conflicts in Israel, Lebanon, Iran, Ukraine, and Russia, terrorism is postured to return (both by organized groups and lone actors).
2. Power Vacuums in Africa: Recent coups in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger have created instability in the Sahel region, providing fertile ground for extremist groups to operate and expand. Additionally, both France and the U.S. have been forced to withdraw military operations from multiple countries.
3. Afghanistan Withdrawal: The U.S. exit from Afghanistan in 2021 has allowed ISIS-K to grow, extending its reach and orchestrating high-profile attacks globally, notably the Moscow attack in March 2024.
4. Middle East Instability: ISIS is reasserting control in parts of Iraq and Syria, exploiting the ongoing turmoil in the region and Iran’s shrinking influence.
5. Conflict Spillover: The Israel-Hamas war has fueled extremist sentiments, with Hamas’ tactics on October 7 serving as inspiration for potential copycats.

In addition to the New Orleans attack, the last year has seen a surprising number of ISIS-inspired or directed attacks:

• Bombing in eastern Iran killing about 100 people at a ceremony remembering Qassim Suleimani
• Killing of a worshiper at a Catholic church in Istanbul
• Mass shooting at a Moscow concert hall, killing 145 and injuring over 500 people
• Fatal shooting of six people near a Shiite mosque in Oman
• Foiled plot to bomb a Taylor Swift concert in Vienna, Austria that led to its cancellation
• Fatal stabbing of three people at a festival in western Germany

A World in Transition

As the world navigates the transition from Biden to Trump, the global security landscape faces significant challenges:

1. Policy Shifts: The change in administration may lead to alterations in counter-terrorism strategies, potentially creating gaps that extremist groups could exploit.
2. International Relationships: Trump's return to office might reshape alliances and partnerships crucial for coordinated counter-terrorism efforts.
3. Domestic Focus: The new administration's pledge to use military resources for domestic issues like mass deportations and counter-cartel operations in Mexico could divert attention and resources from international terrorism threats.

Rivals Seeking Advantage

This period of transition presents an opportunity for U.S. rivals to test the new administration's resolve and exploit any perceived weaknesses:

• China: May seek to expand its influence in regions where U.S. attention is diverted, particularly in Asia Pacific, Africa, and Latin America.
• Russia: Could leverage the situation to strengthen its position in Ukraine, Libya, and elsewhere in Africa.
• Iran: Influence and power projection capabilities are severely eroded; however, it could still be a dangerous player in the region as it seeks to reassert itself.
• Turkey: While not a rival of the U.S., Turkey is the big winner as a result of the changes in the Middle East between Iran’s waning influence and the fall of Assad in Syria. It will seek to expand its influence not just in neighboring countries but also in the Gulf states.

CUSTOM INTELLIGENCE