War in Ukraine is in ‘one of the most dangerous periods’: Retired colonel

"We're now going into this phase of escalation....as we're moving with seven weeks prior to the change in administration, you should anticipate—we should all be anticipating—escalation on both sides."

Global Guardian CEO and President Dale Buckner appeared on ABC News to provide insights into the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. During the segment, Dale analyzed the strategic implications of new weaponry being introduced into the conflict while remaining hopeful for a diplomatic resolution in the coming year.

Is the World More Dangerous Than Ever for Travelers? A Global Risk Expert Weighs In

"For 2025, Global Guardian’s assessment results underscore the reality that disruption globally and domestically continues to increase, and now more than ever, travelers need to be prepared when exploring the world."

In a TravelPulse article, CEO Dale Buckner delves into the findings of Global Guardian's 2025 Global Risk Map, shedding light on various country risk designations and sharing valuable advice for travelers. Among his recommendations is a reminder to carefully review the fine print of your insurance policies before embarking on your next trip—and know who you are going to call for help in an emergency.

What Trump's Cabinet picks say about his Middle East agenda, including a two-state solution

"If Israel and Saudi Arabia align and normalize relationships, that absolutely isolates Iran. Getting the Abraham accords to be fully realized ... that will absolutely change the landscape of the Middle East."

Global Guardian VP of Client Risk Management Seth Krummrich spoke to ABC News about how cabinet nominations from the upcoming presidential administration may impact the intractable conflict in the Middle East in the short- and long-term. 

Russian Losses Approach Three Grim Milestones After 1000 Days of War

"As soon as Russia started to pull back from the north, that's when it became more apparent this war would last 1000 days if not longer."

In Newsweek, Global Guardian Senior Intelligence Analyst Zev Faintuch contributed his perspective on how the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022 has now lasted over 1,000 days, and where the conflict will go next. 

Outsmart disaster: Learning from world events and navigating evacuations

"It is extremely challenging to predict future events, but the time for surprises is past us. Growing geopolitical tensions and a changing global climate are making crises more of the rule than the exception — and leaders must adapt to this reality and prepare for it."

In a new piece for Security Magazine, Global Guardian CEO Dale Buckner writes that preparation is the most important part of navigating disasters, and outlines how businesses can avoid being caught off guard. 

Could South Korea send troops to fight for Ukraine?

“Military support from South Korea could range from logistics support such as communications gear, aviation parts, tents, food, trucks, anything mechanical, to lethal forms ranging from small arms, anti-tank weapons, all the way to long-range missiles."

In a new article for The Independent, Global Guardian VP of Client Risk Management Seth Krummrich weighed in on whether, and how, South Korea would follow North Korea into the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. 

The New Cold War: How Polycrises Threaten Every Business

"The era of post-Cold War stability is over; in its stead, there are a host of simmering geopolitical tensions that could suddenly erupt and undermine international business."

In a Fair Observer op-ed, Head of Research and Intelligence Zev Faintuch examines the shifting global threat landscape, defined by escalating geopolitical tensions and interlinked crises. Highlighting the risks this instability poses to global markets, Zev encourages corporate leaders to adapt their strategies to navigate these new complexities and safeguard their operations and employees.

Taiwan Strait | Marburg Virus

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.

Cross-Strait Tension Mounting Ahead of U.S. Election

On 14 October 2024, the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) commenced Joint Sword 2024B, a 13-hour long exercise simulating a blockade of Taiwan. Joint Sword 2024B is the second drill this year and marks the fourth major PLA drill around Taiwan since August 2022. A chaotic presidential transition in the United States (U.S.) increases the likelihood that China’s next war game is not just demonstration but an opening act.

Over the last 4 years, Chinese military aircraft and vessels have entered Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) on a near-daily basis, with activity spiking during exercises. Joint Sword 2024B featured 153 aircraft, 14 naval vessels, and 12 Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) vessels and included sorties from the Liaoning aircraft carrier. The drills also took place closer to Taiwan's coast than previous exercises, featuring an expanded role for the Chinese Coast Guard. Joint Sword 2024B takes PLA activity around Taiwan one major step further by blurring the line between drill and blockade.

• PLA live fire drills can potentially lead to abrupt commercial flight cancellations, impacting travel.
• Global Guardian recommends that firms with exposure to East Asia plan for the possibility of a blockade or invasion of Taiwan in the coming 36 months. For more information on this topic see our 2024 Taiwan Shock Index.

Recent Events

• 26 October: U.S. approves USD $2 billion Taiwan air defense arms package to include three National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS). China condemned the sale and threatened countermeasures.
• 21 October: China holds live-fire drills near the Pingtan Islands in response to USS Higgins and Royal Canadian HMCS Vancouver’s transit through the Taiwan Strait on 20 October.
• 14 October: PLA launches Joint Sword 2024B around Taiwan in response to Taiwan President Lai’s National Day speech.
• 13 October: The Taiwan Ministry of National Defense signs formal purchase agreements to procure as many as 1,000 loitering drones from U.S. defense companies. 
• 10 October: President Lai Ching-te Delivers Taiwan National Day Address.

Analysis

Joint Sword 2024B featured two additional coercive elements as compared to the previous three drills: surprise and sanctions. The flash exercise had no warning or disclosure of closed military zone locations, nor did the PLA state the end date or time. In parallel, Beijing sanctioned a Taiwanese lawmaker and billionaire Robert Tsao, as well as three U.S. defense firms and ten senior executives.

Joint Sword 2024B is part and parcel of China’s salami-cutting strategy. In this strategy, China carefully and teleologically maneuvers, disguising offensive actions as defensive, allowing it to secure a strategic edge incrementally. This tactic leaves its targets – all countries it neighbors at sea – with a difficult dilemma: slow attrition or rapid brinksmanship.

Looking Forward

China has now demonstrated to the international community, Taiwan, and the United States that it could effectively impose a maritime blockade of Taiwan at will. The Joint Sword Drills are steps in a long chain of events that may reach a breaking point in the coming 36 months. CIA Director William Burns has publicly stated that the intelligence community believes that President Xi Jinping has ordered the PLA to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027.

Beijing can leverage many possible triggers to impose a blockade. These range from (but are not limited to:

• Domestic Taiwanese crises (political or typhoon-related)
• Delivery of strategic military assets (air defense systems, uncrewed surface vehicles, ATACMS)
• U.S.-China trade negotiations
• High-level Taiwan-U.S. bilateral meetings
• Formal changes to the America’s One China Policy or Taiwan Relations Act
  
  

Marburg Virus Outbreak in Rwanda: What Travelers Need to Know

The recent outbreak of Marburg virus disease (MVD) in Rwanda has raised concerns for travelers planning to visit the country. As of October 31, 2024, Rwanda has reported 65 confirmed cases, and 15 deaths related to this rare but severe hemorrhagic fever. Global Guardian Medical Director Dr. Shelly Weisenfeld notes that “with the memory of the Ebola virus and known similarities with Marburg, the WHO and CDC quickly collaborated in tracking the illness and investigating vaccine options." While the outbreak appears to be contained and the risk to most travelers remains low, it is crucial to stay informed and take necessary precautions.

Affected Areas

The outbreak has primarily affected several districts in Rwanda, including:

• Kigali (Nyarugenge, Kicukiro, and Gasabo districts)
• Kamonyi (Southern province)
• Nyagatare and Gatsibo (Eastern province)
• Rubavu (Western province)
• Most cases have been reported among healthcare workers in Kigali hospitals

Transmission and Symptoms

Marburg virus is typically spread through:

• Direct contact with bodily fluids of infected individuals
• Indirect contact with contaminated surfaces or materials
• Contact with infected animals, particularly fruit bats

Early symptoms of MVD include:

• High fever
• Severe headaches
• Muscle aches
• Diarrhea
• Nausea and vomiting
• Rash (usually on the chest)

Travel Precautions

If planning to travel to Rwanda, consider the following advice:

• Practice good hygiene: Wash your hands frequently or use hand sanitizers.
• Avoid contact with sick individuals: Steer clear of people showing symptoms of illness.
• Stay away from animals: Avoid contact with wild animals, especially bats and monkeys.
• Be cautious at funerals: Avoid direct contact with bodies during burial rituals.
• Monitor your health: Be aware of any symptoms and seek medical attention immediately if you feel unwell.
• Follow local guidelines: Adhere to any restrictions or preventive measures implemented by Rwandan authorities.
• Be prepared for health screenings: Expect temperature checks at ports of entry, hotels, and tourist sites.

Impact on Travel

While lockdown measures have been ruled out, travelers should be aware of the following:

• Gatherings of more than 50 people for funerals of Marburg victims are banned.
• Some establishments have shifted to remote working.
• Neighboring countries like Kenya and Uganda have implemented surveillance measures at entry points.
• The United States has announced health screening for inbound travelers from Rwanda.

South Korea 'Dramatically Strengthening' Nuclear Force Amid Russia Threat

"The addition of North Korean troops does show that Putin needs reinforcements. But what's more concerning is that the well of North Korean troops is practically unlimited."

In Newsweek, Global Guardian Senior Intelligence Analyst Zev Faintuch provided his perspective alongside other experts on the deployment of North Korean troops into the Russian invasion of Ukraine is impacting the conflict, as well as the geopolitical order. 

At approximately 02:30 local time on 26 October 2024, Israel began strikes on Iran in retaliation for its massive 01 October missile attack on Israel. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesman announced that “…The Israel Defense Force is now precisely attacking military targets in Iran." Initial local reports indicate explosions near Tehran, Mashhad, and Karaj in Iran. Both United States (U.S.) and Israeli officials expect a military response from Iran. Israel is believed to have struck the IRGC building in Tehran. Israeli airstrikes against Syrian Regime Air Defenses in Suwayda and Homs were also reported.

Travel disruptions in the region can be expected in the coming days.