Israel & Lebanon | Honduras

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.

Middle East on the Brink

Over the last month, Israel has assassinated two of the three Hezbollah southern Lebanon district commanders as the region nears the brink of a further expanding conflict. Global Guardian assesses that Israel will wait until Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s 24 July joint session of Congress address to expand its operations in Lebanon. However, Hezbollah may be necessitated to preempt Israeli efforts should a diplomatic deal to halt the fighting in Gaza fail to materialize.

Since 08 October 2023, Lebanese Hezbollah and Israel have been locked in an attritional war. Roughly 70,000 Lebanese residents and a similar number of Israelis have evacuated from the border regions as a result of the fighting. Hezbollah has sought to ease the pressure off Hamas in the Gaza Strip by demanding the Israeli Defense Force’s (IDF) attention in the north but focusing primarily on military targets and evacuated towns relatively near the border. To this end, it has fired over 5,000 rockets into Israel, killing roughly 20 soldiers, and has burnt over 45,000 hectares of forests in northern Israel. Israel has been battering and counter-battering Hezbollah positions in Southern Lebanon, attacking supply and logistics nodes and targeting mid-level commanders. Israel has eliminated over 350 Hezbollah fighters, including 32 senior Hezbollah officers (two district commanders), and struck thousands of targets, mostly in southern Lebanon.

Hezbollah is using the distance of its strikes to signal intent to Israel, and in late June, Israel began to reposition its forces from the Gaza Envelope to the northern border. Hezbollah’s rocket and missile systems pose a threat to all of Israel, and its ground forces are significantly stronger than those of Hamas. Israel’s commitment to destroying Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon, as it has in Gaza, is credible and could result in thousands of deaths. Lebanon’s already strained economy could collapse entirely, with hundreds of thousands of people displaced and the country's infrastructure severely damaged.

• Several countries have urged their citizens to leave Lebanon immediately, and the United States (U.S.) and Saudi Arabia have warned their citizens not to travel to Lebanon.
• Direct Iranian intervention could potentially draw in American involvement, putting the entire region at risk.
• A third Israel-Lebanon war could significantly inflame social tensions across the Middle East and beyond, including in the U.S. and Europe.
• Global Guardian recommends that firms review evacuation plans for Israel and Lebanon and prepare employees who remain to shelter in place for extended periods of time without power.

Recent Events

• 05 July – Shuttle diplomacy to end the fighting in Gaza resumes in Doha, Qatar, after American and French mediation efforts with Hezbollah in June fail.
• 04 July – Hezbollah launches over 200 rockets and drones, killing an Israeli soldier and forcing tens of thousands of civilians in non-evacuated communities into shelters in its deepest large-scale barrage.
• 03 July – Israel assassinates Hezbollah’s Aziz district commander, Abu Nasser, in Tyre, Lebanon.
• 20 June – Hezbollah Secretary General Nasrallah threatens to strike Cyprus if it grants Israel access to its ports.
• 12 June – Hezbollah fires 400+ rockets into Israel rockets as deep as Tiberias and Haifa.
• 11 June – Israel assassinates Taleb Abdullah, Hezbollah’s commander of the Nasr regional division.

Analysis

The current status quo only benefits Iran, who, through Hezbollah, is probing and attriting Israel’s missile defense system at great cost to Israel. It does not appear that either side is itching for a full-scale war, with a highly sectarian Lebanon on the verge of becoming a failed state and Israel feeling the economic, social, and military effects of having activated its reservists for such a long period. Israel and Lebanon also have displaced populations that need to return home. The only realistic off-ramp that can prevent the conflict from escalating would be a settlement to the War in Gaza. The prospects remain elusive, especially now that the U.S. election cycle is entering an intense phase, and future American policy in the region is uncertain.

Israel aims to create a buffer zone in southern Lebanon to prevent Hezbollah from launching anti-tank guided missiles at Israeli border communities and to demand the withdrawal of Hezbollah's elite Radwan Brigade from the area. Israel's priority is to ensure the safe return of displaced Israelis to their homes in the north. Meanwhile, Hezbollah seeks to avoid an Israeli war on Lebanon and maintain its current domination of the Lebanese state. Additionally, the U.S. is pressuring both Israel and Hezbollah to avoid a broader conflict that could involve both the U.S. and Iran. Hezbollah is Iran’s most prized geostrategic tool, serving as its chief proxy in the region. It is the lynchpin of Iran’s “ring of fire” around Israel (and U.S. forces) — its forward defense strategy to protect the regime and its nuclear program. Iran can’t afford to lose its main deterrent.

Looking Forward

There are four plausible scenarios for how the war of attrition on the Lebanon border will continue:

Scenario 1: Limited Escalation

• The Israeli Air Force (IAF) initiates a large-scale air campaign across southern Lebanon, primarily steering clear of population centers. The operation focuses on eliminating Hezbollah’s drone and rocket units near the border.
• In response, Hezbollah is likely to retaliate, but it may avoid targeting major Israeli cities if Israel similarly avoids civilian areas in Lebanon, primarily in southern Beirut.

Scenario 2: Miscalculation/Mistake

• An errant Hezbollah rocket kills Israeli civilians, or the next Israeli airstrike on a high-value target could spur a major conflict.

Scenario 3: Pre-emptive War

• Both parties share a huge advantage in leveraging the element of surprise to score a knockout blow. Israel needs to eliminate enough of Hezbollah’s estimated 40,000 - 80,000 short-range rockets in the first 24 hours before they are launched, and Hezbollah needs to disable the IAF and Israel’s air defense radars and interceptor batteries. The cost of failure is very high for the entire region.
• It is possible that Iran gets involved directly, and highly likely that its proxies in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen will intervene to a greater degree than at present.
• Airports and critical infrastructure will be targeted and destroyed.

Scenario 4: Gaza Cease-fire/De-escalation   

• Israeli forces eliminate Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar or other senior Hamas leaders in Gaza and potentially rescue more hostages, providing Prime Minister Netanyahu with some leeway to consider compromising on the cease-fire proposal. The prime minister needs a victory in Gaza to prevent the collapse of his governing coalition, and Hamas won’t agree to anything that would preclude its future rise to power in Gaza.
• A diplomatic solution would involve Hezbollah partially withdrawing its fighters some 6-8 miles from the Israel border, while Israel partially withdraws from some of the 13 disputed points along the Lebanon border and halts overflights.

Honduras Digs Deeper on Anti-Gang Strategy Despite Criticism

On 15 June, Honduran President Xiomara Castro took to television and announced a series of proposals to combat organized crime, particularly in the most violent municipalities. These latest proposals piggyback onto an active state of emergency first declared in November 2022. Initially set for 45 days in Tegucigalpa and San Pedro Sula, the state of emergency has been repeatedly extended and now covers over 90% of the population. It allows suspension of parts of the Constitution in the fight against gang crime.

Honduran leadership, inspired by the success of neighboring El Salvador in reducing violent crime rates, is striving to implement a similar approach. However, the proposed measures have been met with criticism for their lack of a comprehensive strategy and their poor results thus far from the ongoing state of emergency.

Notable 15 June Proposals

• Construction of a 20,000-capacity prison between the departments of Olancho and Gracias a Dios.
• Requesting Congress to reform the penal code so that drug traffickers and members of criminal gangs who commit specific crimes can be designated as terrorists and tried collectively in court.
• Immediate arrest of "intellectual authors, leaders, and gang members."

Global Guardian recommends the use of secure transportation within Honduras.

Analysis

In many municipalities, extensions of the state of emergency without Congressional ratification have risked prosecutions, with only eight people convicted of extortion in the first three months of 2024 compared to 105 in all of 2022. In addition, while homicide rates have declined, this decline is happening in municipalities both under the state of emergency and those outside it, casting doubt on the government's claims of success being tied to the suspension of constitutional rights.

The latest proposals target symptoms rather than the root cause of crime. The ongoing corruption within security forces and both the judiciary and executive branches means it will take a long time to fill up the proposed 20,000-person prison. Earlier this year, the former president of Honduras, Juan Orlando Hernandez, was sentenced in an American court to 45 years in prison for drug trafficking and related firearms offenses. Without rooting out corruption and empowering security forces and the courts to enforce laws and convict criminals, violent crime will persist.

Looking Forward

Honduras seems to be stuck in the same security gray zone as Ecuador following its own declaration of gangs as terrorist organizations earlier in 2024 after gang violence spilled out of prisons and into the streets of Guayaquil and elsewhere. Without taking the extreme and extrajudicial step that El Salvador has taken of arresting and imprisoning nearly all suspected gang members, Honduras will continue to struggle to make a real dent in organized crime and associated violence.  

Hezbollah’s ‘axis of resistance’ allies waiting in reserve to fight Israel

“This is the strategic messaging response and it is a parallel conflict to the physical combat on the ground."

In a recent piece on Al Jazeera, Global Guardian's Vice President of Client Risk Management Seth Krummrich provided valuable perspective on the potential conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, and how an expanded conflict could bring in additional fighters from the "axis of resistance."

On 25 June 2024, the government of Kenya passed a tax increase, setting off large-scale protests in Nairobi's Central Business District during morning and afternoon hours. These anti-government protests quickly turned violent as protesters stormed Parliament and other government buildings in the immediate area. Police responded with live ammunition, rubber bullets, tear gas, and water cannons. Several people were killed and more than 100 injured in the unrest. A crackdown on protesters and further unrest is likely following late-night comments made by President William Ruto.

US struggles to halt spiraling Israel-Hezbollah conflict

“It’s like asking a scorpion not to sting... The solution there is coming to an actual peace deal and creating some sort of stability in northern Israel and in Gaza."

In a new article in The Hill, Global Guardian Vice President, Client Risk Management Seth Krummrich provided his perspective on rising tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, and how the conflict in Gaza is impacting this potential war on the Lebanese border. 

The New World Order Is Disorder

"Many business executives today have only ever operated in the world America built... However, those days are gone. America’s hegemonic power has dwindled, and an unstable multipolar system is taking its place."

In a new op-ed in Fair Observer, Global Guardian Senior Intelligence Analyst Zev Faintuch explains how a changing global political landscape is impacting businesses, and how they will need to pivot to survive. 

Germany Ramps Up Security Efforts as UEFA EURO 2024 Begins

“There’s a large behind-the-scenes effort of Russian psyops to try and undermine the sense of safety and security around the Olympics... I think you’re likely to see something similar pop-up in Germany during the EUROs given that Germany’s also been supportive of Ukraine during the conflict.”

In Security Management's recent post about Germany's security needs ahead of the UEFA European Championship 2024, Global Guardian's Director of Intelligence Michael Ballard shared his perspective on the risks and challenges of throwing a massively popular event in such complicated times. 

Taiwan | New CAledonia

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.

China’s Reaction to President Lai Ching-te’s Inauguration Address Presages Cross-strait Tumult

On 23 May, the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) commenced the two-day Joint Sword 2024A exercise simulating a blockade of Taiwan. This marks the third round of large-scale military drills around Taiwan over the last two years, with the previous iteration in response to then-Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen's April 2023 visit to the U.S. Regional tensions are rising in the aftermath of Lai’s Inauguration and the Shangri-La Dialogue.

Joint Sword 2024A took place in five maritime areas outside of Taiwan’s territorial waters (more than 12 nautical miles from its coast), mainly near the ports of Kaohsiung and Keelung, around Taiwan's outlying island groups of Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, and Dongyin, as well as in the Taiwan Strait and east of Taiwan. According to the PLA's Eastern Theater Command (ETC), the drills are "punishment for the Taiwan independence separatist forces" and are meant to serve as "a serious warning to external forces for interference and provocation." The exercise comes on the heels of new Taiwanese President (William) Lai Ching-te’s 20 May inauguration speech in which he referred to China by name, rather than "the mainland," noted that neither China nor Taiwan were subordinate to one another, and called on China "to cease their (sic) political and military intimidation against Taiwan."

China's Joint Sword 2024A Military Drills

• Global Guardian assesses that the window for China to blockade or invade Taiwan is open.
• It is likely that a Chinese blockade of Taiwan will begin as a military exercise not unlike Joint Sword 2024A.
• We recommend that all firms with operations or interests in East and South East Asia begin to prepare for the possibility of a major disruption in the near to medium terms.

Recent Events

• 03 June – Taiwan announces a series of live-fire drills simulating the defense from a Chinese amphibious assault.

• 02 June – Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun accuses Taiwan of “pursuing separation,” in address at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore.

• 24 May – Between 20,000-80,000 protesters gathered outside Taiwan's Legislative Yuan in Taipei to protest the opposition parties' efforts to enact legislative reforms that would increase the legislature's power over the executive branch.

• 23 May – China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) warned the United States (U.S.) not to schedule any congressional visits to Taiwan.

• 23 May– PLA begins Joint Sword 2024A drills around Taiwan.

• 23 May – Taiwanese President (William) Lai Ching-te is inaugurated.

Analysis

Lai’s inauguration leaves Beijing with few carrots left to offer Taiwan and an ever-growing stick as the Peoples Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and China’s informal navies grow in strength and practice blockading Taiwan. The recent Chinese drills focused on joint sea-air combat but were shorter than previous iterations. In addition, no Chinese ships entered Taiwan’s territorial waters, and there were no airspace closures.

The language used in Lai’s inaugural address was not received well in Beijing but fit the narrative it has built around President Lai being a secessionist. At Asia’s premiere defense gathering, China’s defense minister Jun used unprecedented language, implicitly threatening aggression against Taiwan and the Philippines.

Looking Forward

By naming the exercise Joint Sword 2024A, China is signaling that it may conduct another similar exercise this year, an event made more likely through another high-level American visit to Taipei or if Lai visits the U.S. The current hung parliament will allow Beijing to carry out both overt and covert destabilization operations to undermine Taiwan’s democratic system and harm Lai’s and the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) image.

Since February, China has sought to normalize gray zone military activity around and within Kinmen’s waters, with the intent of inculcating its permanent coast guard presence in Taiwan’s frontline islands. These islands will likely become a future flashpoint following a real or manufactured incident.

Violent Unrest in New Caledonia Highlights Multi-Domain Great Power Frictions

On 13 May, violent protests in Noumea — the capital of the French Pacific territory of New Caledonia — ignited a large-scale wave of civil unrest in New Caledonia. So far, the riots have led to seven deaths, hundreds of injuries, disruptions to travel and commerce, roughly a billion Euros in damage, and soaring nickel prices. While the violence has abated since its peak in late May, unrest and sporadic clashes between local factions and security forces are likely to continue for weeks to come. New Caledonia’s unrest illustrates the growing convergence of social, political, and economic threats as “domestic” issues are increasingly internationalized.

The indigenous ethnic Kanak people are protesting against an expansion of local voter rolls to include large swaths of ethnic French transplants — which would effectively erase Kanak aspirations for independence. When legislators in Paris passed the vote on 15 May, violence escalated. Pro-independence demonstrators began erecting barricades, setting fire to businesses, and engaging in violent clashes with police and informal loyalist militias. French President Emmanuel Macron’s administration implemented a state of emergency on 16 May that included a curfew and the banning of TikTok. Some 3,500 French security personnel, including gendarmes (militarized police), marines, and special police units such as RAID and GIGN, were deployed to logistical hubs, including the ports and airport. French security forces have since secured the island’s ports and international airport.

• Global Guardian advises against any unnecessary travel to New Caledonia.
• Avoid all protests and concentrations of security forces or protesters.

Timeline

• 05 June – Flights resume from Tontouta International Airport (NOU).
• 28 &29 May – The TikTok ban and state of emergency are lifted.
• 26 May – Pro-independence leadership states full independence from France as their official goal for future negotiations and instructs protesters to change to a lower-intensity posture but to maintain barricades and a presence in the street indefinitely as talks progress.
• 22 May – President Macron visits the territory.
• 18 May – 600 gendarmes, including 100 GIGN operatives, attempt to clear the road from the international airport to the capital Noumea.
• 16 May – Paris enacts a state of emergency. TikTok is banned in the territory. French military personnel are deployed to take control of seaports and airports.
• 15 May – French legislatures pass a bill extending the franchise to a large swatch of ethnic French residents previously denied the right to vote in local elections.
• 13 May – Small-scale violence breaks out at protests in Noumea as Kanak independence groups anticipate a vote in Paris that could close the path to eventual independence.

Context

France colonized New Caledonia in the mid-19^th century. Since its colonization, New Caledonia’s native Kanak population has experienced discrimination and economic exploitation, especially regarding the profit distribution of the territory’s nickel deposits. In the 1980s, ethnic and economic tensions erupted into a civil war that saw assassinations and kidnappings, as well as dozens of fatalities and thousands of injuries.

This spate of violence ended with France’s recognition of the Kanaks as New Caledonia’s native population and a commitment to New Caledonian autonomy or eventual independence under the “Noumea Accords” framework. The Accords called for three rounds of referenda based on frozen voter rolls –—only citizens who were residents of New Caledonia in 1998 could vote — which were executed in 2018, 2020, and 2021. The first two referenda resulted in minor wins for the “stay” camp. But pro-Independence organizations boycotted the 2021 referendum after their request for postponement due to Covid was denied, leading to a 96.7% vote in favor of remaining.

Pro-Independence factions in New Caledonia rejected the outcome of the referenda as illegitimate and characterized Paris’s move to unfreeze the voter rolls as “recolonization.” However, New Caledonia’s nickel deposits (30% of global reserves), its 1.36 million square kilometer exclusive economic zone (EEZ), and its centrality to France’s Pacific presence make it difficult for Paris to relinquish the territory.

Analysis

France possesses 12 overseas territories — not including Corsica — that together account for roughly 2.6 million people. Mayotte, Guadeloupe, Martinique, and Corsica have all experienced significant unrest that necessitated security intervention in the past five years. In the context of France’s increasingly global political and economic aspirations, the friction between France’s peripheral territories and Paris is only set to intensify.

France’s impulse to cement control of the territory is made more salient by the support for independence offered by Paris’s adversaries. Azerbaijan — spurned by French arms transfers and political backing for Armenia — actively coordinates with and supports at least 14 political movements that advocate for the independence of French territories. These include New Caledonia, French Polynesia, Corsica, Guadeloupe, and Martinique. Russia and China have also made statements in support of the Kanak protesters. The latter is particularly concerning to Paris as Beijing has an extensive economic and political presence in the South Pacific, extending to relationships with pro-independence politicians in New Caledonia.

Tensions in overseas territories threaten France’s strategic autonomy — its overarching objective. When France was evicted from Niger, it lost access to its main source of Uranium which is critical both to France’s green energy sector — nuclear power supplies roughly 70% of Frances's energy needs — and to its standalone nuclear umbrella. Nickel is essential for manufacturing high-end batteries used in electric vehicles and other green technology. Should France lose New Caledonia to a pro-Chinese regime, it would lose control over 30% of the world’s nickel reserves — a necessary asset in the competition against Chinese electric vehicles.

Looking Forward

The violence may escalate if sufficient steps toward Kanak autonomy are not taken. The Kanak independence organizations, particularly the FLNKS, see this as an existential fight and are willing to escalate violence substantially. French retaliation against Azerbaijan could take the form of increased support for Armenia and attacks on Azerbaijan’s political position through international organizations. New Caledonian protesters may seek to draw attention to their cause through protest action at the upcoming Paris Olympics.

More broadly, information campaigns targeting separatists and minorities are likely to take on an increasingly effective role in the ongoing hybrid war between the U.S.-led international order and its opponents. Therefore, unrest is likely to increase in areas with substantial mineral deposits necessary for green energy technology. Large reserves of cobalt, copper, lithium, nickel, manganese, and rare earths in underdeveloped areas will likely see increased great power competition over access.

French Police Arrest Man for Hotel Room Explosion as Olympic Security Efforts Ramp-Up

“France is a target for Islamist attacks due to its leadership role in campaigns against the Islamic State and al-Qaeda in Africa and its large, relatively marginalized Muslim community.”

Security Management's recent post about rising terrorism concerns in Paris, France ahead of the 2024 Summer Olympics highlighted Global Guardian's extensive report outlining threats to the Games, and how to stay safe if you're headed to the country this summer.  

Russia is trying to disrupt 2024 Paris Olympics, Microsoft says

"Those attacks have probably already begun, he said, and are likely to multiply, with French authorities going 'on the offensive' as the games approach to crack down on groups planning attacks."

Global Guardian CEO and President Dale Buckner was featured in The Washington Post's piece on how Russia is looking to disrupt the 2024 Paris Olympics via disinformation, propaganda, and artificial intelligence. 

Russian Bots Use Fake Tom Cruise for Olympic Disinformation

“We think this is the number one security threat to the Games. With AI now you’re going to have a level of disinformation we haven’t seen before.”

As pro-Russia propaganda spreads disinformation about the Paris Olympics, Global Guardian CEO Dale Buckner warns travelers that artificial intelligence and hacking could lead to disruptions and unrest at the Games in Bloomberg.