On NBC News, Global Guardian Director of Intelligence Michael Ballard discussed the updated travel advisories that the United States issued for Jamaica and the Bahamas following an increase in violence. Mike encouraged travelers to be vigilant about maintaining situational awareness while they visit those two countries, including spending less time on their phones. Click below to watch the full news segment.
“If you go back to how we met—it was a network. It was having a connection. That is really Global Guardian’s secret sauce. It’s that we have that network in those 135 countries that we practice with all the time.”
On the Beyond the O.R. podcast, SVP Michael Coleman discussed how Global Guardian evacuated Dr. Kevin Brenner and his group of travelers from the Atlas Mountains immediately following last year’s devastating earthquake in Morocco. Hear both sides of the evacuation story, and how Global Guardian supports traveling clients with 24/7 response and ground teams around the world.
“Start thinking about what is in the realm of possible. If it is possible, then you need to consider it. This is a change required by [individuals]…as they continue to travel the world.”
CEO Dale Buckner sat down with Eric Bowman from TravelPulse to discuss key learnings from Global Guardian’s 2024 Global Risk Map—including the ongoing effects of geopolitics on the travel risk landscape—and to advise travelers to answer four key questions before taking off on their next trip.
“…this time-tested method of security and protection holds its own alongside the highest levels of security technology.”
Global Guardian CEO Dale Buckner and Vice President of International Affairs Ariel Kern discuss how K9s can be a force multiplier for security programs in Security Management Magazine from ASIS International. From contraband detection to threat deterrence, learn why dogs support security teams worldwide and what steps you should take if you are interested in implementing K9 units into your program.
On NBC News, Global Guardian Director of Intelligence Michael Ballard advises travelers to reconsider their non-essential travel plans to Ecuador in the wake of increased gang violence in the country. Click below to watch the full news segment.
“I cannot say enough about Global Guardian. They arranged for this family to be ushered (across the border). There was a wheelchair waiting for him. … It was 26 minutes for them to be processed through the border, and then they were met on the other side and brought to Krakow by another team.”
Global Guardian takes pride in providing support to families during their most challenging times, including the Bilous family. The Bilous family recently shared their remarkable journey out of Ukraine on Today, highlighting the assistance they received from Global Guardian as they raced to get their son, Andryusha, the necessary treatment for his rare disease.
In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.
On 13 January 2024, the Taiwanese are set to elect their President and Parliament for the next four years. The three-way race between the incumbent Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), the Kuomintang (KMT), and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) is tight with a weak mandate possible. Following the election of President Tsai Ing-wen (DPP) to her first term in 2016, Beijing cut ties and ramped up military intimidation of Taiwan. This election and Beijing’s response to it will largely dictate the tone and tenor of Taiwan Strait tensions and Sino-American relations for the foreseeable future.
While all three candidates – William Lai (DPP), Hou You-yi (KMT), and Ko Wen-je (TPP) – pledge to support the status quo of maintaining Taiwan’s autonomy from China, Beijing views the candidates quite differently. Hou and Ko favor more cross-Strait interaction and economic interdependence, positions that Beijing is likely to reciprocate with less bellicosity and more carrots, while Beijing is antagonistic to the DPP and sees Lai as a “troublemaker” who in 2017 dubbed himself “a pragmatic worker for Taiwanese independence” (a position he has since walked back). With a very difficult path to a parliamentary majority, there is a strong possibility of a divided government ahead — with more cross-Strait turbulence on the horizon.
18 August 2023 – U.S., Republic of Korea, and Taiwan meet in first standalone summit between the three states at Camp David. A big step on way to solidifying an as-of-yet informal anti-Chinese alliance.
19 August 2023 – PLA launches drills around Taiwan following William Lai’s stopover in the U.S.
30 August 2023 – President Biden authorizes weapons transfers to Taiwan under Foreign Military Financing, a program normally used for sovereign states.
23 September 2023 – China announces cross strait integrated development demonstrations zone to promote integrating Taiwan’s outlying islands to the mainland.
07 December 2023 – Taiwan Ministry of Defense (MoD) starts to publicly release information on Chinese surveillance ballons entering Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone. To date, Taiwan has tracked 23 spy balloons over its territory.
22 December 2023 – The 2024 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) is signed by President Biden. The 2024 NDAA includes provisions to expedite the fulfillment of previously pledged arms sales to Taiwan.
Following the Taiwanese elections, Global Guardian recommends that clients conduct table-top exercises and scenario planning as the election results may have an outsized impact on topline macroeconomic concerns.
China’s policy towards Taiwanese “reunification” has been premised as a carrot and stick approach; whereby, Beijing rewards alignment with economic incentives, more collegial rhetoric and punished non-alignment with economic sanctions, military intimidation, and more bellicose rhetoric. During the last KMT administration (2008-2016), Beijing’s Taiwan strategy was undergirded on buying its way to reunification via investments in property and coaxing legislators into laying the legal groundwork for eventual unification legislation. In this period, Taiwan established direct air and sea links to China and opened Taiwan to Chinese tourists and college students. Conversely, when the DPP rose to power in 2016, relations soured, and Beijing has wielded many sticks, including import bans and tariffs, halting formal bilateral communication, and military action designed to intimidate and signal its ability to blockade the island of Formosa (Taiwan’s main island).
In August 2022, China executed its most extensive live-fire exercises near Taiwan in almost 30 years, showcasing its ability to create a de facto blockade around Taiwan, disturbing maritime and air routes in Taiwan's bustling shipping lanes. Simultaneously, Chinese air and naval intrusions into Taiwan's informal air defense zone have occurred daily since late 2020 and have been increasing in scope and scale ever since.
The composition of the future Taiwanese government will orient Beijing next moves: carrots or sticks. Depending on the outcome, Tomb Sweeping Day (04 April 2024), and the 20 May 2024 Taiwanese Presidential inauguration speech could serve as flashpoints in the near-term.
Key TakeawaysThe 13 January 2024 National Election will be close, and the winner will play a determining role in the trajectory of cross-Strait relations, and in-turn, Sino-American relations. In the near-term, we expect China to leverage its carrots and sticks that include but are not limited to economic pressure/relief, increase/decrease of air and sea intrusions, cyberattacks on the government and key infrastructure, live fire drills simulating a blockade; and creeping expropriation of the Matsu and Kinmen islands via local politics and incremental expressions of force. |
"They're coming from the small boats, which are very challenging for a number of reasons. How do you discern a fishing boat from a boat that has nefarious intentions?"
On BBC's World Business Report, Global Guardian EVP of Client Risk Management Brian Raymond discusses the challenges that shipping vessels currently face in the Red Sea amid increased attacks on cargo ships by Houthi rebels and rising tensions in the Middle East.
Click below to listen to the full report. If interested in skipping ahead, Global Guardian segment begins at 16:30.
"We're living in an era of geopolitical chaos when every revanchist country sees now as the window of opportunity to rewrite history and redraw borders."
In a Newsweek article, Global Guardian Senior Intelligence Analyst Zev Faintuch discusses the territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana, including its potential to escalate and its significance among geopolitical conflicts and crises across the globe.
“Maduro’s interest is to get himself reelected and get some more of his oil onto oil markets.”
Global Guardian Senior Intelligence Analyst Zev Faintuch shares insight into the territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana—and why tensions might continue to escalate between the two countries—in an Associated Press article.
