August Risk Barometer

EL NIÑO | INDIA

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.

El Niño Weather Cycle Raises Potential for Extreme Weather Events and Food Supply Shortages

This year’s El Niño weather phenomenon is forecast to be one of the strongest on record, resulting in increased extreme weather events, such as heightened typhoon activity in the Pacific, and putting nearly 50 million more people at risk of acute food insecurity. The largest impacts are anticipated in Central America and southern Africa, with significant effects also expected in eastern Africa and south and southeast Asia.

These regions will experience drought, typhoons, flooding, and extreme heat, which will affect food production. Rising food prices and food insecurity may also contribute to social unrest and increase the likelihood of protests in affected regions. El Niño is expected to peak between September and December 2026, but the effects will be felt throughout 2027, and it will impact future harvests.

Recommendations

• Businesses and travelers should monitor weather conditions and anticipate extreme weather events around September to December 2026 in Central America, southern and eastern Africa, and south and southeast Asia.
• Organizations operating in affected regions should develop contingency plans in case of disruptions to travel or extreme weather events such as flooding, drought, typhoons, wildfires, heatwaves, and hurricanes.

Situation Report

• On 05 August, the UN warned that this year’s El Niño could cause 50 million more people to face acute hunger due to its effects on agricultural production.

• In July, the NOAA predicted that there is a 73% chance of a “Super El Niño” from September to November and an 81% chance from October–December.

• On 09 July, the NOAA announced that El Niño will strengthen through the end of the year, with a 97% chance it will persist through early spring 2027.

• In June, the Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Food Programme of the UN issued an appeal for anticipatory action ahead of El Niño aimed at protecting local food production and food security in 22 countries across Africa, Asia and the Pacific, and Latin America and the Caribbean.

• On 11 June, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) officially declared the onset of El Niño and predicted that it could be one of the strongest El Niño events in history.

Analysis

The impacts of this year’s El Niño are already being felt in many regions, with record ocean temperatures, extreme heat events, wildfires, droughts, and disruptions to fisheries and water supplies. Past El Niño phenomena impacted human populations by increasing food and water insecurity, public health risks, economic losses, and social disruption.

One of the biggest threats posed by past El Niños was food insecurity as extreme weather events caused damage to crops, livestock, and agricultural infrastructure, which reduced food production and disrupted markets. Because of decreased agricultural production, many countries have had to rely almost entirely on imported foods during past El Niños, putting these countries at a high risk of food shortages and placing pressure on international food supply chains. This year’s El Niño comes at a time when there are already significant geopolitical disruptions linked to conflict involving Iran and instability across key shipping routes, compounding the risks to global food security.

Beyond global food security, extreme weather linked to past El Niño events has caused regional security challenges. Extreme weather linked to previous El Niño cycles has amplified disease outbreaks, damaged critical public infrastructure, fueled migration, and led to the erosion of public trust in governance. Rising food insecurity and food prices could also contribute to an increased potential for social unrest and protests, particularly in countries with large youth populations and existing economic or political grievances. For example, in the Philippines, recent anti-government sentiment could be heightened by El Niño-linked food price shocks and shortages, potentially increasing the risk of protests.

LOOKING FORWARD

This year’s El Niño is highly likely to cause significant effects on agricultural and economic productivity across the globe, with the biggest impacts falling on lower- and middle-income countries in Central America, southern and eastern Africa, and south and southeast Asia. Economists are warning that a Super El Niño could cause a global food price shock lasting into 2028, and countries that depend on imported food supplies are at a higher risk for food shortages.

If the intensity of this year’s El Niño is of a similar magnitude to the last Super El Niño, then the global economy could face an annual loss of $686 billion, or about 0.6% of the global GDP, and those losses could rise to $3.1 trillion over the next five years.

Exam Scandal Sparks Gen Z Protests in India

Student-led protests sparked by botched university entrance exams in India have subsided from their peak in July, but the tensions that drove unrest remain unresolved. The protesters, organized under the satirical Cockroach Janta Party (CJP), called for an end to demonstrations on 25 July after securing the resignation of former Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan.

Despite assurances from officials in the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) that no punitive action would follow, at least 100 student protesters were then arrested. CJP accused the government of reneging on that assurance two days later, citing the arrests. Global Guardian assesses that the near-term risk of large-scale demonstrations in Delhi is moderate, and that India’s capacity for rapid, youth-led mobilization has increased and will very likely continue to increase through 2027.

Recommendations

• Personnel in New Delhi should avoid Jantar Mantar, the area around Parliament, and the offices of the Ministry of Education, along with all protests and concentrations of security forces.
• Firms with personnel in Delhi should evaluate secure ground transportation and real-time threat intelligence support during periods of heightened tension.
• Anticipate internet suspensions and metro closures in central Delhi as a first-order government response to unrest. Establish communications protocols that do not depend on mobile data.
  

Situation Report

On 06 June, students associated with the CJP occupied the Jantar Mantar observatory, a traditional gathering site for dissident protests in New Delhi. On 20 July, thousands of students and supporters defied a city-wide ban on public gatherings to demonstrate in New Delhi. At the direction of the central government, Delhi police prohibited all public assembly, erected physical barriers along major routes, and shut down internet and metro access in the city center to prevent demonstrators from reaching government offices, particularly the Ministry of Education.

Demonstrators clashed with security forces at multiple locations, resulting in hundreds of injuries to protesters and dozens to police. On 25 July, police used tear gas and batons to disperse crowds that had been occupying Jantar Mantar since 06 June. Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan resigned the same day, and CJP agreed to call off demonstrations after BJP ministers assured the group that no punitive action would follow. However, following the arrest or detention of at least 100 protesters affiliated with CJP, on 27 July, CJP surrogates stated that they would resume demonstrations if the detained protesters were not released.

Context

University entrance examinations in India determine access of approximately 2.2 million applicants to a limited number of slots for aspiring doctors and government employees. The tests are highly competitive, and preparation is often arduous and resource-intensive. The tests are perceived as so key to a student’s future livelihood that some families resort to selling land or borrowing money to pay for tutoring.

The medical entrance examinations taken on 03 May of this year had been compromised by leaked test questions that had been circulating for weeks by the date of the examination. On 14 May, educational officials announced that the 03 May examinations were void, and more than two million students would have to retake the exam in mid-June. More than a dozen students died by suicide in the period following the announcement, energizing government critics and drawing parents into the growing protest movement.

On 15 May, Chief Justice of India Surya Kant referred to some anti-government protesters and activists as “cockroaches.” Abhijeet Dipke, an Indian graduate student at Boston University, founded the Cockroach Janta Party (Cockroach People’s Party) as a satirical response. The CJP then quickly became the organizing framework for a broad base of dissatisfaction with BJP rule. On 06 August, the movement declined to register as a political party, opting instead to remain a pressure group and to broaden its agenda from examination integrity to education, employment, and government accountability.

Analysis

Pradhan’s resignation was a significant concession, but it displaced the dispute rather than resolving the tension. It was the first occasion on which sustained public pressure removed a senior minister from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s cabinet, and it demonstrated the movement’s reach. The arrests that followed, however, replaced a narrow and technically resolvable grievance—examination integrity—with a broader one concerning the reliability of government commitments. Movement members have framed the protests as a test of “the limits of [BJP] oppression,” and the alleged breach of the non-punitive agreement suggests the BJP is reverting to the posture that initially produced the unrest.

The BJP’s appeal to economic performance is unlikely to quell youth discontent. The scale and persistence of the CJP protests suggest that twelve years of rapid but unequal growth no longer suffice to absorb public frustration. The movement’s shift from examination integrity to employment and accountability addresses that record directly, and expands its potential constituency from approximately two million examination candidates to India’s wider youth population.

The CJP movement is also a notable data point in a broader trend of increasingly popular, intense, and widespread Gen Z protests against poor governance and corruption. For more on the youth protest trend, see the Generation Discontent section of the 2026 Worldwide Threat Assessment.

Looking Forward

• Global Guardian assesses that India’s latent potential for Gen Z protest is increasing and will very likely continue to increase through 2027. The July demonstrations should be treated as an indication of capability rather than as a concluded event. The principal driver is demonstrated efficacy: The movement obtained a ministerial resignation within ten weeks of its formation, establishing that sustained youth mobilization can extract concessions from the central government.

• Government countermeasures have so far mobilized more protests than they have suppressed. Protest bans, internet and metro shutdowns, and non-bailable charges each preceded increases in turnout during July. Continued reliance on these measures should be treated as an escalation indicator rather than as a stabilizing factor.

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