On 01 October, it was reported that Iran was preparing for a ballistic missile barrage targeting Israel in retaliation for the massive airstrikes on Hezbollah HQ that killed its leader, Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah on 27 September. The same strikes also took out some 20 other senior Hezbollah officials and likely Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) handlers. The threat of Iranian missiles prompted the U.S. Embassy in Israel to issue a shelter-in-place warning and comes after Israel launched a ground incursion into Lebanon on 30 September. Many nations continue to advise their citizens to leave Lebanon by commercial means while still available. 

SPECIAL REPORT

Hurricane Helene, currently a Category 2 storm, is expected to make landfall tonight as a Category 4 storm in the Big Bend area of Florida. According to current estimates, Helene is expected to make landfall between 9 p.m. and 11 p.m. EDT, with maximum sustained winds of 130-135 mph and gusts up to 150 mph or higher. Storm surge will impact areas as far south as the Florida Keys up to Mobile, AL. The most at-risk areas face 15-20 feet of storm surge. Portions of Tampa Bay will see 6-10 feet of surge. Strong easterly winds off the Atlantic will lead to storm surge and coastal flooding from northeastern Florida up to the coast to South Carolina. 

Prolonged rainfall from Helene will lead to flooding in many areas, including the panhandle of Florida, and parts of Georgia, the Carolinas, Alabama, and Tennessee into the Southern Appalachians. 

• The following airports are closed:
  
  • Tampa International Airport 
  • St. Pete-Clearwater International Airport
  • Tallahassee Regional Airport
• Mandatory and voluntary evacuation orders have been issued for communities from Sarasota County up to Gulf County near the panhandle.
• A large part of Georgia will get hit with tropical storm-force winds as Helene moves north. The storm may spawn tornados as it moves overland. Atlanta International Airport is likely to face disruptions as the center of Helene passes by to the east.
  
  

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES

• To view Global Guardian’s 2024 Hurricane Preparedness Guide, click here.
• For those currently in Florida, we also advise consulting the Florida Division of Emergency Management here.
  
  

From Beirut to Tel Aviv, the northern front of the October 7th War has reached an inflection point. In the last week, Israel has nearly decimated Hezbollah’s senior leadership, destroyed hundreds of its launchers, and wounded several thousand of its members in a series of operations to blow up Hezbollah-linked communication devices.

Mexico | Central Africa

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.

Judicial Reform Proposal Sparks Concern in Mexico

Mexico's judiciary is on the brink of a major overhaul as President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's controversial reform proposal advances through Congress. This sweeping change would transform the country's judicial system by replacing appointed judges with elected ones, including Supreme Court justices. With change comes risk, and there are concerns that this reform could make things worse in Mexico, where rampant corruption and fear of cartel violence make prosecuting murder, kidnapping, extortion, and theft difficult. Additionally, elections in Mexico could become even more violent as organized criminal groups seek to exploit this reform.

The Proposed Reform

The reform package, which has already passed Mexico's lower house of Congress, aims to:

• Require all 7,000 federal judges to be elected by popular vote
• Allow any lawyer with basic qualifications to run for judgeship
• Introduce "hooded judges" for organized crime cases to protect their identities
• Reduce the Supreme Court from 11 to 9 justices and shorten their terms
• Create a judicial disciplinary committee to investigate misconduct and legal reasoning

Potential Impacts on Democracy

• Increased accountability: Proponents argue that elected judges would be more accountable to the people, potentially reducing corruption and cronyism in the judiciary.
• Democratization: The reform could give citizens a more direct voice in shaping the judicial branch, aligning with principles of democratic participation.
• Politicization of the judiciary: Elected judges might be more susceptible to political pressures, potentially compromising their independence and impartiality.
• Influence of organized crime: There are concerns that drug cartels and criminal organizations could field their own candidates or exert undue influence over judicial elections.
• Erosion of checks and balances: Critics argue that this reform could severely weaken the judiciary's role in providing oversight and balance to the executive and legislative branches.
• Election violence: Elections, already violent affairs in Mexico, could witness more associated violence as organized criminal groups seek to undermine the democratic process.

Corruption: Better or Worse?

There are a few ways to view how corruption may play out with regards to this reform.

• Optimistic view: López Obrador and his supporters claim that electing judges will root out existing corruption and democratize a judiciary they believe is currently influenced by organized crime.
• Pessimistic view: Many legal professionals and organizations fear that the proposed system could exacerbate corruption by:

• Opening the door for wealthy individuals or criminal groups to finance judicial campaigns
• Potentially allowing unqualified individuals to become judges through popularity contests rather than merit
• Making judges beholden to political parties or powerful interests that support their elections

International COncerns

The proposed reforms have drawn criticism from the United States and Canada, with concerns about potential negative impacts on foreign investment and Mexico's economy. This international backlash has led to strained diplomatic relations, with López Obrador putting relations with these embassies (not the countries) "on pause".

MPOX Declared Public Health Emergency in Central Africa

The recent mpox outbreak in Central Africa has raised significant concerns among global health authorities, prompting action and increased vigilance both in Central Africa and elsewhere.

In August 2024, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the surge in cases of mpox in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and neighboring countries a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). This declaration came in response to the rapid spread of a new strain of the monkeypox virus, identified as clade 1b, which has been expanding beyond its traditional endemic regions in Central Africa. While this latest outbreak has garnered significant media attention, it does not have the same potential for global disruptive impact as other diseases like COVID-19 or bird flu.

The outbreak, which began in September 2023 in the DRC, has since spread to several neighboring countries, including Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, and Uganda. These countries have reported their first mpox cases, many of which have been linked to travel to eastern parts of the DRC.

Analysis

The current outbreak presents several concerning factors:

• New viral strain: The clade 1b mpox strain differs from previous strains in that it can more easily spread between people, particularly through sexual contact. Since September 2023, it has infected more than 20,000 people and killed over 600, a significantly higher fatality rate than the previous outbreak in 2022.
• Urban spread: Unlike previous outbreaks, the virus is now affecting densely populated areas, increasing the risk of rapid transmission.
• Vulnerable populations: Children under 15 account for about two-thirds of infections in the DRC, raising concerns about the impact on vulnerable groups.
• Limited resources: Many affected countries lack access to mpox vaccines and antivirals, hampering containment efforts.
• Potential for global spread: The outbreak's expansion to multiple countries increases the risk of international transmission.

Recommendations

For travelers considering visits to affected areas:

• Vaccination: Receive the JYNNEOS vaccine (two doses, 4 weeks apart) before arrival in affected areas.
• Avoid close contact: Minimize activities that involve close personal contact, especially with high-risk groups or at social gatherings.
• Animal precautions: Avoid skin-to-skin contact with animals known to carry mpox, such as rodents and primates.
• Hygiene practices: Wash hands frequently with soap and water or use alcohol-based hand sanitizers.
• Awareness: Be alert for symptoms and seek medical attention if you suspect exposure.

Impact on Travel

Several countries began to impose surveillance measures at points of entry and certain airports:

• South Africa 
• Kenya 
• Rwanda
• Tanzania
• Nigeria
• Egypt
• India
• United States
• China
• UK

Bangladesh | Venezuela

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.

Violence Continues as Parliament Dissolved, PM Hasina Resigns After Weeks of Unrest

On 06 August, Bangladesh President Shahabuddin announced the dissolution of Parliament, allowing for the formation of an interim government with 2006 Nobel Peace Prize winner Muhammed Yunus to serve as leader. After Prime Minister Hasina resigned and fled the country on 05 August, angry mobs ransacked police headquarters in Dhaka, killing several police officers. Graphic images show bodies of policemen hanging from bridges and in beaten piles. Police then announced an indefinite strike, opening the door to more mob violence, vandalism, looting, and destruction. The situation in Bangladesh remains fluid as violence continues nationwide, stemming from student-led anti-quota protests starting in early July.

Current Situation

In addition to Muhammad Yunus leading the interim government, opposition Bangladesh National Party (BNP) leader Khaleda Zia was released. The interim government is also working to have thousands of detained activists released from jail. This will help bring all key voices to the table as the temporary government attempts to restore order and political stability.

In addition to police being targeted, there are reports of Muslim mobs attacking, raping, and killing members of the Hindu minority. The country has a long history of religious violence and there is concern of a larger pogrom targeting Hindus if the interim government cannot take control of the situation. Rail services remain suspended indefinitely. While the internet blockages and curfews were removed or lessened, a heightened security presence remains in place and use of force by police to disperse unauthorized demonstrations is possible.

• Global Guardian recommends against all travel to Bangladesh until the situation stabilizes.
• Leave the country if able.
• Shelter in place as required.
• Avoid all protests and follow local orders around curfews or other restrictions.

Background

Violent protests erupted across Bangladesh in early July, with university students leading the charge against the reinstatement of quotas in government jobs. Initially confined to university campuses, the protests quickly spread to major cities such as Dhaka, Chittagong, Rajshahi, Khulna, and Barisal. These demonstrations then escalated into large-scale marches and sit-ins, blocking key traffic points and resulting in violent clashes between protesters, police, and pro-quota activists. Eventually, the student-led protests morphed into violent, nationwide anti-government protests and riots. The unrest resulted in a nationwide curfew, restrictions on internet use, mass arrests of over 10,000 people, and the use of live ammunition by police, resulting in the deaths of more than 250 people.

Timeline

• 2 July – 05 August: Protests begin and become increasingly violent across Bangladesh. Hundreds of people are killed, thousands arrested.
• 17 July: Authorities implement a 4G mobile internet blackout nationwide.
• 18 July: Authorities suspend broadband internet.
• 19 July: A nationwide curfew was imposed, running from 18:00-07:00 in Dhaka city and surrounding districts, with varying hours in other districts. The curfew included shoot-on-sight orders.
• 21 July: The Supreme Court scraps most of the quotas on government jobs, leading to a gradual return to calm in urban areas.
• 23 July: Authorities restore broadband internet in Dhaka and Chittagong.
• 26 July: Curfew hours are relaxed in Chittagong and Rajshahi, indicating a slight easing of tensions. Police in Dhaka arrest multiple student leaders.
• 29 July: Authorities rescind 4G mobile internet blackout nationwide, but access to social media platforms remains restricted.
• 01 August: Bangladesh government bans Jamaat-e-Islami political party and its student wing as part of crackdown.
• 05 August: Prime Minister Hasina resigns amid pressure from army, flees to India. Interim government is announced, led by Army Chief General Waqar-uz-Zaman.
• 05 August: Protests and clashes continue across Dhaka, Chattogram, and elsewhere. Protesters storm and vandalize police headquarters in Dhaka, killing up to a dozen officers.
• 06 August: Parliament is dissolved, paving way for official formation of interim government. Muhammad Yunus announced as leader of interim government. Activists and political opposition figures are released from detention.

Analysis

The mass unrest and violence seen just over a month after anti-quota protests began shows how quickly action around an issue can spiral out of control, snowballing into nationwide mob violence and proving just how fragile Bangladesh is in its ability to withstand civil unrest.

The government's quota system for civil service posts has been controversial since 1972 when it was first instituted. Critics assert the quota system favors supporters of the ruling Awami Leage party, used to stack public jobs with loyalists, further entrenching their rule. Other factors have contributed to the mass unrest and violence, including the crackdown on student protesters by police, youth unemployment (30 million young people), and general disapproval of the ruling Awami League party. Many Bangladeshis, especially young people, view former Prime Minister Hasina through this lens. Bangladesh has a long history of military rule, including coups. Most recently, the army presided over a caretaker government from 2007-2008 before Parliamentary elections were held.

Looking Forward

The resignation of PM Hasina, dissolution of Parliament, and formation of an interim government led by Nobel Peace Prize winner Muhammad Yunus do not give confidence that law and order will be restored any time soon, especially as the country’s entire police force is on indefinite strike. The military may take over entirely and deploy soldiers nationwide to establish law and order.

There are growing concerns that mob violence will spread and grow, and a military crackdown could further enrage and embolden anti-government protesters in the same way that heavy-handed police tactics garnered sympathy for the student protesters, leading to additional unrest and violence. All of this, combined with the policies enacted by the military in 2007-2008 (large numbers of arbitrary arrests, cases of torture and killing with impunity under state of emergency rules, and restrictions on political and civil liberties), means any military-led government will not be met with the same welcoming attitude as the caretaker government was first met with in 2007.

There is ongoing potential for additional unrest as mobs act with impunity across the country while police officers go on indefinite strike. This is particularly true around key urban areas, including Dhaka, Chittagong, Khulna, and Sylhet. This risk will stay high as long as the government is unable to secure law and order.

Post-Election Unrest Escalates

The recent (28 July 2024) presidential election in Venezuela has plunged the country into a state of unrest and political turmoil, with widespread protests and international condemnation following incumbent President Nicolás Maduro's contested victory. Impacted cities include the capital Caracas as well as Maracaibo and San Cristobal. At least 17 people are reported dead across the country due to unrest and clashes with security forces, while the government claims at least 2,000 people have been arrested. While many countries have denounced the results, others such as China, Iran, Cuba, Honduras, Nicaragua, Bolivia, and Russia were quick to recognize Maduro as the winner. Despite the clearly fraudulent results and resulting unrest, it is likely Maduro will remain in power if he continues to enjoy the political and economic support of the aforementioned countries.

Recommendations

• Avoid all travel to Venezuela in the short-to-medium term.
• Expect heightened security and associated disruptions near all electoral and political/government infrastructure.
• Exercise caution around grocery stores, pharmacies, and petrol stations where looting and unrest can erupt without warning.
• Limit outdoor movement in urban areas, especially at night.
• Anticipate possible disruptions to internet access.
• Avoid all demonstrations and protests due to the risk of incidental injury and arrest.
• Avoid loitering near security forces and government infrastructure.
• In case of unrest, shelter in place and only leave when it is safe.
• Monitor local media for situational updates.
• Review evacuation plans in case of widespread violence and register all travel details with local embassies.

Contested Election

Maduro’s declared victory (51.2% to 44%) over opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia is widely disputed and believed to be fraudulent. On 01 August, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken announced that the Maduro-controlled National Election Council (CNE) results were “deeply flawed.” Supporting evidence provided by Blinken paints a convincing picture that the results were indeed fraudulent:

• The opposition Democratic Unitary Platform has released over 80% of the voting tally sheets collected directly from polling stations across Venezuela. These tallies show Edmundo González Urrutia winning the election by a significant and unbeatable margin.
• Independent observers have verified these results, which are also supported by exit polls and quick counts conducted on election day.
• In the aftermath of the election, the U.S. engaged in extensive consultations with international partners and allies. While different countries have responded in various ways, none have concluded that Nicolás Maduro received the majority of votes in this election.

International Reactions

The following countries severed or suspended diplomatic ties with Venezuela:

• Panama
• Dominican Republic
• Argentina
• Chile
• Costa Rica
• Peru
• Uruguay

Several of these countries have suspended flights with Venezuela as well. Additionally, the Organization of American States said it would request an arrest warrant for Maduro through the International Criminal Court; however, the group failed to reach the 18-vote threshold to pass a resolution asking the CNE to publish voting data.

Key allies Russia, China, Iran, Bolivia, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Cuba, among others, quickly recognized Maduro as the winner of the election.

Analysis

The Maduro administration has long used its control over public institutions to maintain power, and the lead-up to the July election was no different. The opposition candidate González was selected by the Democratic Unitary Platform (PUD) only after former legislator María Corina Machado was barred from holding office for 15 years for alleged corruption after winning the 2023 primary vote. The primary results were also suspended by the Supreme Court amid allegations of fraud, and other opposition figures, including former governor Henrique Capriles and opposition primary commission member Corina Yoris, were barred from running.

Despite more than a decade of dire economic conditions (GDP shrank 74% from 2014-2020 before recovering slightly) and political instability, the Maduro regime has survived multiple destabilization attempts including a failed 2018 assassination attempt against President Maduro, two uprisings by members of the Bolivarian National Guard in 2019, massive anti-government protests also in 2019, a failed mercenary raid in 2020, and now mass unrest following fraudulent elections. As long as the Maduro regime can afford to keep the army, police, and pro-government militias paid, fed, and in relatively good health, the chances of him exiting office are slim. Political and economic support from Cuba, Russia, Iran, China, and elsewhere are key to maintaining regime stability.

Impact and Outlook

The decade-long crisis and surge in violence has already triggered a mass exodus of some seven million refugees, and the latest round of unrest and violence is likely to trigger more migration. The disputed election results may further exacerbate economic instability and international isolation as the Maduro regime blames foreign interference for fomenting unrest.

Continued nationwide anti-government demonstrations are highly likely. The potential for escalated violence between protesters and security forces remains high. Further international diplomatic and economic measures against Venezuela are expected.

On 31 July, the U.S. State Department issued a Level 4 Travel Advisory for Lebanon, advising citizens not to travel to the country amid increasing tensions between Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran. The warning comes after Israel allegedly assassinated Hamas' political leader in a supposedly hardened apartment in Tehran, Iran. The Tehran strike itself comes a day after Israel eliminated a senior Hezbollah commander in southern Beirut in a targeted airstrike. All eyes are on Iran to see how it chooses to respond. The recent events have also triggered flight disruptions in the region.

During the early morning hours of 19 July, U.S. IT firm CrowdStrike reported that a "defect" in an update for Windows was the cause of a massive global IT outage that led to major operational disruptions to airports and airlines, hospitals, banks, media organizations, and more. It is reportedly the largest IT outage ever, and CrowdStrike is deploying a fix after identifying the issue.

The incident underscores the critical nature of information technology infrastructure to daily operations of businesses and people. A single "defective" update can cripple global IT operations. It raises concerns about multiple shared single points of failure for so many organizations.

Video footage of a Trump campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania on 13 July showed the former president dive to the ground followed by the close encirclement of his Secret Service team after what appeared to be gunshots. Counter-sniper agents shot and killed the suspected shooter located on a rooftop 400 to 500 feet (120 to 150 meters) from the podium. At least one bystander was killed, while President Trump appeared to sustain an injury to the ear. The Secret Service is now investigating what the FBI considers to be an assassination attempt.

The incident underscores concerns over political violence surrounding the November elections. The type of rhetoric, unrest, and violence that culminated in the 2017 Congressional baseball shooting and the 6 January 2021 Capitol attack are more likely to surface.

Israel & Lebanon | Honduras

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.

Middle East on the Brink

Over the last month, Israel has assassinated two of the three Hezbollah southern Lebanon district commanders as the region nears the brink of a further expanding conflict. Global Guardian assesses that Israel will wait until Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s 24 July joint session of Congress address to expand its operations in Lebanon. However, Hezbollah may be necessitated to preempt Israeli efforts should a diplomatic deal to halt the fighting in Gaza fail to materialize.

Since 08 October 2023, Lebanese Hezbollah and Israel have been locked in an attritional war. Roughly 70,000 Lebanese residents and a similar number of Israelis have evacuated from the border regions as a result of the fighting. Hezbollah has sought to ease the pressure off Hamas in the Gaza Strip by demanding the Israeli Defense Force’s (IDF) attention in the north but focusing primarily on military targets and evacuated towns relatively near the border. To this end, it has fired over 5,000 rockets into Israel, killing roughly 20 soldiers, and has burnt over 45,000 hectares of forests in northern Israel. Israel has been battering and counter-battering Hezbollah positions in Southern Lebanon, attacking supply and logistics nodes and targeting mid-level commanders. Israel has eliminated over 350 Hezbollah fighters, including 32 senior Hezbollah officers (two district commanders), and struck thousands of targets, mostly in southern Lebanon.

Hezbollah is using the distance of its strikes to signal intent to Israel, and in late June, Israel began to reposition its forces from the Gaza Envelope to the northern border. Hezbollah’s rocket and missile systems pose a threat to all of Israel, and its ground forces are significantly stronger than those of Hamas. Israel’s commitment to destroying Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon, as it has in Gaza, is credible and could result in thousands of deaths. Lebanon’s already strained economy could collapse entirely, with hundreds of thousands of people displaced and the country's infrastructure severely damaged.

• Several countries have urged their citizens to leave Lebanon immediately, and the United States (U.S.) and Saudi Arabia have warned their citizens not to travel to Lebanon.
• Direct Iranian intervention could potentially draw in American involvement, putting the entire region at risk.
• A third Israel-Lebanon war could significantly inflame social tensions across the Middle East and beyond, including in the U.S. and Europe.
• Global Guardian recommends that firms review evacuation plans for Israel and Lebanon and prepare employees who remain to shelter in place for extended periods of time without power.

Recent Events

• 05 July – Shuttle diplomacy to end the fighting in Gaza resumes in Doha, Qatar, after American and French mediation efforts with Hezbollah in June fail.
• 04 July – Hezbollah launches over 200 rockets and drones, killing an Israeli soldier and forcing tens of thousands of civilians in non-evacuated communities into shelters in its deepest large-scale barrage.
• 03 July – Israel assassinates Hezbollah’s Aziz district commander, Abu Nasser, in Tyre, Lebanon.
• 20 June – Hezbollah Secretary General Nasrallah threatens to strike Cyprus if it grants Israel access to its ports.
• 12 June – Hezbollah fires 400+ rockets into Israel rockets as deep as Tiberias and Haifa.
• 11 June – Israel assassinates Taleb Abdullah, Hezbollah’s commander of the Nasr regional division.

Analysis

The current status quo only benefits Iran, who, through Hezbollah, is probing and attriting Israel’s missile defense system at great cost to Israel. It does not appear that either side is itching for a full-scale war, with a highly sectarian Lebanon on the verge of becoming a failed state and Israel feeling the economic, social, and military effects of having activated its reservists for such a long period. Israel and Lebanon also have displaced populations that need to return home. The only realistic off-ramp that can prevent the conflict from escalating would be a settlement to the War in Gaza. The prospects remain elusive, especially now that the U.S. election cycle is entering an intense phase, and future American policy in the region is uncertain.

Israel aims to create a buffer zone in southern Lebanon to prevent Hezbollah from launching anti-tank guided missiles at Israeli border communities and to demand the withdrawal of Hezbollah's elite Radwan Brigade from the area. Israel's priority is to ensure the safe return of displaced Israelis to their homes in the north. Meanwhile, Hezbollah seeks to avoid an Israeli war on Lebanon and maintain its current domination of the Lebanese state. Additionally, the U.S. is pressuring both Israel and Hezbollah to avoid a broader conflict that could involve both the U.S. and Iran. Hezbollah is Iran’s most prized geostrategic tool, serving as its chief proxy in the region. It is the lynchpin of Iran’s “ring of fire” around Israel (and U.S. forces) — its forward defense strategy to protect the regime and its nuclear program. Iran can’t afford to lose its main deterrent.

Looking Forward

There are four plausible scenarios for how the war of attrition on the Lebanon border will continue:

Scenario 1: Limited Escalation

• The Israeli Air Force (IAF) initiates a large-scale air campaign across southern Lebanon, primarily steering clear of population centers. The operation focuses on eliminating Hezbollah’s drone and rocket units near the border.
• In response, Hezbollah is likely to retaliate, but it may avoid targeting major Israeli cities if Israel similarly avoids civilian areas in Lebanon, primarily in southern Beirut.

Scenario 2: Miscalculation/Mistake

• An errant Hezbollah rocket kills Israeli civilians, or the next Israeli airstrike on a high-value target could spur a major conflict.

Scenario 3: Pre-emptive War

• Both parties share a huge advantage in leveraging the element of surprise to score a knockout blow. Israel needs to eliminate enough of Hezbollah’s estimated 40,000 - 80,000 short-range rockets in the first 24 hours before they are launched, and Hezbollah needs to disable the IAF and Israel’s air defense radars and interceptor batteries. The cost of failure is very high for the entire region.
• It is possible that Iran gets involved directly, and highly likely that its proxies in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen will intervene to a greater degree than at present.
• Airports and critical infrastructure will be targeted and destroyed.

Scenario 4: Gaza Cease-fire/De-escalation   

• Israeli forces eliminate Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar or other senior Hamas leaders in Gaza and potentially rescue more hostages, providing Prime Minister Netanyahu with some leeway to consider compromising on the cease-fire proposal. The prime minister needs a victory in Gaza to prevent the collapse of his governing coalition, and Hamas won’t agree to anything that would preclude its future rise to power in Gaza.
• A diplomatic solution would involve Hezbollah partially withdrawing its fighters some 6-8 miles from the Israel border, while Israel partially withdraws from some of the 13 disputed points along the Lebanon border and halts overflights.

Honduras Digs Deeper on Anti-Gang Strategy Despite Criticism

On 15 June, Honduran President Xiomara Castro took to television and announced a series of proposals to combat organized crime, particularly in the most violent municipalities. These latest proposals piggyback onto an active state of emergency first declared in November 2022. Initially set for 45 days in Tegucigalpa and San Pedro Sula, the state of emergency has been repeatedly extended and now covers over 90% of the population. It allows suspension of parts of the Constitution in the fight against gang crime.

Honduran leadership, inspired by the success of neighboring El Salvador in reducing violent crime rates, is striving to implement a similar approach. However, the proposed measures have been met with criticism for their lack of a comprehensive strategy and their poor results thus far from the ongoing state of emergency.

Notable 15 June Proposals

• Construction of a 20,000-capacity prison between the departments of Olancho and Gracias a Dios.
• Requesting Congress to reform the penal code so that drug traffickers and members of criminal gangs who commit specific crimes can be designated as terrorists and tried collectively in court.
• Immediate arrest of "intellectual authors, leaders, and gang members."

Global Guardian recommends the use of secure transportation within Honduras.

Analysis

In many municipalities, extensions of the state of emergency without Congressional ratification have risked prosecutions, with only eight people convicted of extortion in the first three months of 2024 compared to 105 in all of 2022. In addition, while homicide rates have declined, this decline is happening in municipalities both under the state of emergency and those outside it, casting doubt on the government's claims of success being tied to the suspension of constitutional rights.

The latest proposals target symptoms rather than the root cause of crime. The ongoing corruption within security forces and both the judiciary and executive branches means it will take a long time to fill up the proposed 20,000-person prison. Earlier this year, the former president of Honduras, Juan Orlando Hernandez, was sentenced in an American court to 45 years in prison for drug trafficking and related firearms offenses. Without rooting out corruption and empowering security forces and the courts to enforce laws and convict criminals, violent crime will persist.

Looking Forward

Honduras seems to be stuck in the same security gray zone as Ecuador following its own declaration of gangs as terrorist organizations earlier in 2024 after gang violence spilled out of prisons and into the streets of Guayaquil and elsewhere. Without taking the extreme and extrajudicial step that El Salvador has taken of arresting and imprisoning nearly all suspected gang members, Honduras will continue to struggle to make a real dent in organized crime and associated violence.  

On 25 June 2024, the government of Kenya passed a tax increase, setting off large-scale protests in Nairobi's Central Business District during morning and afternoon hours. These anti-government protests quickly turned violent as protesters stormed Parliament and other government buildings in the immediate area. Police responded with live ammunition, rubber bullets, tear gas, and water cannons. Several people were killed and more than 100 injured in the unrest. A crackdown on protesters and further unrest is likely following late-night comments made by President William Ruto.