Mexico | Central Africa

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.

Judicial Reform Proposal Sparks Concern in Mexico

Mexico's judiciary is on the brink of a major overhaul as President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's controversial reform proposal advances through Congress. This sweeping change would transform the country's judicial system by replacing appointed judges with elected ones, including Supreme Court justices. With change comes risk, and there are concerns that this reform could make things worse in Mexico, where rampant corruption and fear of cartel violence make prosecuting murder, kidnapping, extortion, and theft difficult. Additionally, elections in Mexico could become even more violent as organized criminal groups seek to exploit this reform.

The Proposed Reform

The reform package, which has already passed Mexico's lower house of Congress, aims to:

• Require all 7,000 federal judges to be elected by popular vote
• Allow any lawyer with basic qualifications to run for judgeship
• Introduce "hooded judges" for organized crime cases to protect their identities
• Reduce the Supreme Court from 11 to 9 justices and shorten their terms
• Create a judicial disciplinary committee to investigate misconduct and legal reasoning

Potential Impacts on Democracy

• Increased accountability: Proponents argue that elected judges would be more accountable to the people, potentially reducing corruption and cronyism in the judiciary.
• Democratization: The reform could give citizens a more direct voice in shaping the judicial branch, aligning with principles of democratic participation.
• Politicization of the judiciary: Elected judges might be more susceptible to political pressures, potentially compromising their independence and impartiality.
• Influence of organized crime: There are concerns that drug cartels and criminal organizations could field their own candidates or exert undue influence over judicial elections.
• Erosion of checks and balances: Critics argue that this reform could severely weaken the judiciary's role in providing oversight and balance to the executive and legislative branches.
• Election violence: Elections, already violent affairs in Mexico, could witness more associated violence as organized criminal groups seek to undermine the democratic process.

Corruption: Better or Worse?

There are a few ways to view how corruption may play out with regards to this reform.

• Optimistic view: López Obrador and his supporters claim that electing judges will root out existing corruption and democratize a judiciary they believe is currently influenced by organized crime.
• Pessimistic view: Many legal professionals and organizations fear that the proposed system could exacerbate corruption by:

• Opening the door for wealthy individuals or criminal groups to finance judicial campaigns
• Potentially allowing unqualified individuals to become judges through popularity contests rather than merit
• Making judges beholden to political parties or powerful interests that support their elections

International COncerns

The proposed reforms have drawn criticism from the United States and Canada, with concerns about potential negative impacts on foreign investment and Mexico's economy. This international backlash has led to strained diplomatic relations, with López Obrador putting relations with these embassies (not the countries) "on pause".

MPOX Declared Public Health Emergency in Central Africa

The recent mpox outbreak in Central Africa has raised significant concerns among global health authorities, prompting action and increased vigilance both in Central Africa and elsewhere.

In August 2024, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the surge in cases of mpox in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and neighboring countries a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). This declaration came in response to the rapid spread of a new strain of the monkeypox virus, identified as clade 1b, which has been expanding beyond its traditional endemic regions in Central Africa. While this latest outbreak has garnered significant media attention, it does not have the same potential for global disruptive impact as other diseases like COVID-19 or bird flu.

The outbreak, which began in September 2023 in the DRC, has since spread to several neighboring countries, including Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, and Uganda. These countries have reported their first mpox cases, many of which have been linked to travel to eastern parts of the DRC.

Analysis

The current outbreak presents several concerning factors:

• New viral strain: The clade 1b mpox strain differs from previous strains in that it can more easily spread between people, particularly through sexual contact. Since September 2023, it has infected more than 20,000 people and killed over 600, a significantly higher fatality rate than the previous outbreak in 2022.
• Urban spread: Unlike previous outbreaks, the virus is now affecting densely populated areas, increasing the risk of rapid transmission.
• Vulnerable populations: Children under 15 account for about two-thirds of infections in the DRC, raising concerns about the impact on vulnerable groups.
• Limited resources: Many affected countries lack access to mpox vaccines and antivirals, hampering containment efforts.
• Potential for global spread: The outbreak's expansion to multiple countries increases the risk of international transmission.

Recommendations

For travelers considering visits to affected areas:

• Vaccination: Receive the JYNNEOS vaccine (two doses, 4 weeks apart) before arrival in affected areas.
• Avoid close contact: Minimize activities that involve close personal contact, especially with high-risk groups or at social gatherings.
• Animal precautions: Avoid skin-to-skin contact with animals known to carry mpox, such as rodents and primates.
• Hygiene practices: Wash hands frequently with soap and water or use alcohol-based hand sanitizers.
• Awareness: Be alert for symptoms and seek medical attention if you suspect exposure.

Impact on Travel

Several countries began to impose surveillance measures at points of entry and certain airports:

• South Africa 
• Kenya 
• Rwanda
• Tanzania
• Nigeria
• Egypt
• India
• United States
• China
• UK

Bangladesh | Venezuela

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.

Violence Continues as Parliament Dissolved, PM Hasina Resigns After Weeks of Unrest

On 06 August, Bangladesh President Shahabuddin announced the dissolution of Parliament, allowing for the formation of an interim government with 2006 Nobel Peace Prize winner Muhammed Yunus to serve as leader. After Prime Minister Hasina resigned and fled the country on 05 August, angry mobs ransacked police headquarters in Dhaka, killing several police officers. Graphic images show bodies of policemen hanging from bridges and in beaten piles. Police then announced an indefinite strike, opening the door to more mob violence, vandalism, looting, and destruction. The situation in Bangladesh remains fluid as violence continues nationwide, stemming from student-led anti-quota protests starting in early July.

Current Situation

In addition to Muhammad Yunus leading the interim government, opposition Bangladesh National Party (BNP) leader Khaleda Zia was released. The interim government is also working to have thousands of detained activists released from jail. This will help bring all key voices to the table as the temporary government attempts to restore order and political stability.

In addition to police being targeted, there are reports of Muslim mobs attacking, raping, and killing members of the Hindu minority. The country has a long history of religious violence and there is concern of a larger pogrom targeting Hindus if the interim government cannot take control of the situation. Rail services remain suspended indefinitely. While the internet blockages and curfews were removed or lessened, a heightened security presence remains in place and use of force by police to disperse unauthorized demonstrations is possible.

• Global Guardian recommends against all travel to Bangladesh until the situation stabilizes.
• Leave the country if able.
• Shelter in place as required.
• Avoid all protests and follow local orders around curfews or other restrictions.

Background

Violent protests erupted across Bangladesh in early July, with university students leading the charge against the reinstatement of quotas in government jobs. Initially confined to university campuses, the protests quickly spread to major cities such as Dhaka, Chittagong, Rajshahi, Khulna, and Barisal. These demonstrations then escalated into large-scale marches and sit-ins, blocking key traffic points and resulting in violent clashes between protesters, police, and pro-quota activists. Eventually, the student-led protests morphed into violent, nationwide anti-government protests and riots. The unrest resulted in a nationwide curfew, restrictions on internet use, mass arrests of over 10,000 people, and the use of live ammunition by police, resulting in the deaths of more than 250 people.

Timeline

• 2 July – 05 August: Protests begin and become increasingly violent across Bangladesh. Hundreds of people are killed, thousands arrested.
• 17 July: Authorities implement a 4G mobile internet blackout nationwide.
• 18 July: Authorities suspend broadband internet.
• 19 July: A nationwide curfew was imposed, running from 18:00-07:00 in Dhaka city and surrounding districts, with varying hours in other districts. The curfew included shoot-on-sight orders.
• 21 July: The Supreme Court scraps most of the quotas on government jobs, leading to a gradual return to calm in urban areas.
• 23 July: Authorities restore broadband internet in Dhaka and Chittagong.
• 26 July: Curfew hours are relaxed in Chittagong and Rajshahi, indicating a slight easing of tensions. Police in Dhaka arrest multiple student leaders.
• 29 July: Authorities rescind 4G mobile internet blackout nationwide, but access to social media platforms remains restricted.
• 01 August: Bangladesh government bans Jamaat-e-Islami political party and its student wing as part of crackdown.
• 05 August: Prime Minister Hasina resigns amid pressure from army, flees to India. Interim government is announced, led by Army Chief General Waqar-uz-Zaman.
• 05 August: Protests and clashes continue across Dhaka, Chattogram, and elsewhere. Protesters storm and vandalize police headquarters in Dhaka, killing up to a dozen officers.
• 06 August: Parliament is dissolved, paving way for official formation of interim government. Muhammad Yunus announced as leader of interim government. Activists and political opposition figures are released from detention.

Analysis

The mass unrest and violence seen just over a month after anti-quota protests began shows how quickly action around an issue can spiral out of control, snowballing into nationwide mob violence and proving just how fragile Bangladesh is in its ability to withstand civil unrest.

The government's quota system for civil service posts has been controversial since 1972 when it was first instituted. Critics assert the quota system favors supporters of the ruling Awami Leage party, used to stack public jobs with loyalists, further entrenching their rule. Other factors have contributed to the mass unrest and violence, including the crackdown on student protesters by police, youth unemployment (30 million young people), and general disapproval of the ruling Awami League party. Many Bangladeshis, especially young people, view former Prime Minister Hasina through this lens. Bangladesh has a long history of military rule, including coups. Most recently, the army presided over a caretaker government from 2007-2008 before Parliamentary elections were held.

Looking Forward

The resignation of PM Hasina, dissolution of Parliament, and formation of an interim government led by Nobel Peace Prize winner Muhammad Yunus do not give confidence that law and order will be restored any time soon, especially as the country’s entire police force is on indefinite strike. The military may take over entirely and deploy soldiers nationwide to establish law and order.

There are growing concerns that mob violence will spread and grow, and a military crackdown could further enrage and embolden anti-government protesters in the same way that heavy-handed police tactics garnered sympathy for the student protesters, leading to additional unrest and violence. All of this, combined with the policies enacted by the military in 2007-2008 (large numbers of arbitrary arrests, cases of torture and killing with impunity under state of emergency rules, and restrictions on political and civil liberties), means any military-led government will not be met with the same welcoming attitude as the caretaker government was first met with in 2007.

There is ongoing potential for additional unrest as mobs act with impunity across the country while police officers go on indefinite strike. This is particularly true around key urban areas, including Dhaka, Chittagong, Khulna, and Sylhet. This risk will stay high as long as the government is unable to secure law and order.

Post-Election Unrest Escalates

The recent (28 July 2024) presidential election in Venezuela has plunged the country into a state of unrest and political turmoil, with widespread protests and international condemnation following incumbent President Nicolás Maduro's contested victory. Impacted cities include the capital Caracas as well as Maracaibo and San Cristobal. At least 17 people are reported dead across the country due to unrest and clashes with security forces, while the government claims at least 2,000 people have been arrested. While many countries have denounced the results, others such as China, Iran, Cuba, Honduras, Nicaragua, Bolivia, and Russia were quick to recognize Maduro as the winner. Despite the clearly fraudulent results and resulting unrest, it is likely Maduro will remain in power if he continues to enjoy the political and economic support of the aforementioned countries.

Recommendations

• Avoid all travel to Venezuela in the short-to-medium term.
• Expect heightened security and associated disruptions near all electoral and political/government infrastructure.
• Exercise caution around grocery stores, pharmacies, and petrol stations where looting and unrest can erupt without warning.
• Limit outdoor movement in urban areas, especially at night.
• Anticipate possible disruptions to internet access.
• Avoid all demonstrations and protests due to the risk of incidental injury and arrest.
• Avoid loitering near security forces and government infrastructure.
• In case of unrest, shelter in place and only leave when it is safe.
• Monitor local media for situational updates.
• Review evacuation plans in case of widespread violence and register all travel details with local embassies.

Contested Election

Maduro’s declared victory (51.2% to 44%) over opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia is widely disputed and believed to be fraudulent. On 01 August, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken announced that the Maduro-controlled National Election Council (CNE) results were “deeply flawed.” Supporting evidence provided by Blinken paints a convincing picture that the results were indeed fraudulent:

• The opposition Democratic Unitary Platform has released over 80% of the voting tally sheets collected directly from polling stations across Venezuela. These tallies show Edmundo González Urrutia winning the election by a significant and unbeatable margin.
• Independent observers have verified these results, which are also supported by exit polls and quick counts conducted on election day.
• In the aftermath of the election, the U.S. engaged in extensive consultations with international partners and allies. While different countries have responded in various ways, none have concluded that Nicolás Maduro received the majority of votes in this election.

International Reactions

The following countries severed or suspended diplomatic ties with Venezuela:

• Panama
• Dominican Republic
• Argentina
• Chile
• Costa Rica
• Peru
• Uruguay

Several of these countries have suspended flights with Venezuela as well. Additionally, the Organization of American States said it would request an arrest warrant for Maduro through the International Criminal Court; however, the group failed to reach the 18-vote threshold to pass a resolution asking the CNE to publish voting data.

Key allies Russia, China, Iran, Bolivia, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Cuba, among others, quickly recognized Maduro as the winner of the election.

Analysis

The Maduro administration has long used its control over public institutions to maintain power, and the lead-up to the July election was no different. The opposition candidate González was selected by the Democratic Unitary Platform (PUD) only after former legislator María Corina Machado was barred from holding office for 15 years for alleged corruption after winning the 2023 primary vote. The primary results were also suspended by the Supreme Court amid allegations of fraud, and other opposition figures, including former governor Henrique Capriles and opposition primary commission member Corina Yoris, were barred from running.

Despite more than a decade of dire economic conditions (GDP shrank 74% from 2014-2020 before recovering slightly) and political instability, the Maduro regime has survived multiple destabilization attempts including a failed 2018 assassination attempt against President Maduro, two uprisings by members of the Bolivarian National Guard in 2019, massive anti-government protests also in 2019, a failed mercenary raid in 2020, and now mass unrest following fraudulent elections. As long as the Maduro regime can afford to keep the army, police, and pro-government militias paid, fed, and in relatively good health, the chances of him exiting office are slim. Political and economic support from Cuba, Russia, Iran, China, and elsewhere are key to maintaining regime stability.

Impact and Outlook

The decade-long crisis and surge in violence has already triggered a mass exodus of some seven million refugees, and the latest round of unrest and violence is likely to trigger more migration. The disputed election results may further exacerbate economic instability and international isolation as the Maduro regime blames foreign interference for fomenting unrest.

Continued nationwide anti-government demonstrations are highly likely. The potential for escalated violence between protesters and security forces remains high. Further international diplomatic and economic measures against Venezuela are expected.

On 31 July, the U.S. State Department issued a Level 4 Travel Advisory for Lebanon, advising citizens not to travel to the country amid increasing tensions between Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran. The warning comes after Israel allegedly assassinated Hamas' political leader in a supposedly hardened apartment in Tehran, Iran. The Tehran strike itself comes a day after Israel eliminated a senior Hezbollah commander in southern Beirut in a targeted airstrike. All eyes are on Iran to see how it chooses to respond. The recent events have also triggered flight disruptions in the region.

During the early morning hours of 19 July, U.S. IT firm CrowdStrike reported that a "defect" in an update for Windows was the cause of a massive global IT outage that led to major operational disruptions to airports and airlines, hospitals, banks, media organizations, and more. It is reportedly the largest IT outage ever, and CrowdStrike is deploying a fix after identifying the issue.

The incident underscores the critical nature of information technology infrastructure to daily operations of businesses and people. A single "defective" update can cripple global IT operations. It raises concerns about multiple shared single points of failure for so many organizations.

Video footage of a Trump campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania on 13 July showed the former president dive to the ground followed by the close encirclement of his Secret Service team after what appeared to be gunshots. Counter-sniper agents shot and killed the suspected shooter located on a rooftop 400 to 500 feet (120 to 150 meters) from the podium. At least one bystander was killed, while President Trump appeared to sustain an injury to the ear. The Secret Service is now investigating what the FBI considers to be an assassination attempt.

The incident underscores concerns over political violence surrounding the November elections. The type of rhetoric, unrest, and violence that culminated in the 2017 Congressional baseball shooting and the 6 January 2021 Capitol attack are more likely to surface.

Israel & Lebanon | Honduras

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.

Middle East on the Brink

Over the last month, Israel has assassinated two of the three Hezbollah southern Lebanon district commanders as the region nears the brink of a further expanding conflict. Global Guardian assesses that Israel will wait until Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s 24 July joint session of Congress address to expand its operations in Lebanon. However, Hezbollah may be necessitated to preempt Israeli efforts should a diplomatic deal to halt the fighting in Gaza fail to materialize.

Since 08 October 2023, Lebanese Hezbollah and Israel have been locked in an attritional war. Roughly 70,000 Lebanese residents and a similar number of Israelis have evacuated from the border regions as a result of the fighting. Hezbollah has sought to ease the pressure off Hamas in the Gaza Strip by demanding the Israeli Defense Force’s (IDF) attention in the north but focusing primarily on military targets and evacuated towns relatively near the border. To this end, it has fired over 5,000 rockets into Israel, killing roughly 20 soldiers, and has burnt over 45,000 hectares of forests in northern Israel. Israel has been battering and counter-battering Hezbollah positions in Southern Lebanon, attacking supply and logistics nodes and targeting mid-level commanders. Israel has eliminated over 350 Hezbollah fighters, including 32 senior Hezbollah officers (two district commanders), and struck thousands of targets, mostly in southern Lebanon.

Hezbollah is using the distance of its strikes to signal intent to Israel, and in late June, Israel began to reposition its forces from the Gaza Envelope to the northern border. Hezbollah’s rocket and missile systems pose a threat to all of Israel, and its ground forces are significantly stronger than those of Hamas. Israel’s commitment to destroying Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon, as it has in Gaza, is credible and could result in thousands of deaths. Lebanon’s already strained economy could collapse entirely, with hundreds of thousands of people displaced and the country's infrastructure severely damaged.

• Several countries have urged their citizens to leave Lebanon immediately, and the United States (U.S.) and Saudi Arabia have warned their citizens not to travel to Lebanon.
• Direct Iranian intervention could potentially draw in American involvement, putting the entire region at risk.
• A third Israel-Lebanon war could significantly inflame social tensions across the Middle East and beyond, including in the U.S. and Europe.
• Global Guardian recommends that firms review evacuation plans for Israel and Lebanon and prepare employees who remain to shelter in place for extended periods of time without power.

Recent Events

• 05 July – Shuttle diplomacy to end the fighting in Gaza resumes in Doha, Qatar, after American and French mediation efforts with Hezbollah in June fail.
• 04 July – Hezbollah launches over 200 rockets and drones, killing an Israeli soldier and forcing tens of thousands of civilians in non-evacuated communities into shelters in its deepest large-scale barrage.
• 03 July – Israel assassinates Hezbollah’s Aziz district commander, Abu Nasser, in Tyre, Lebanon.
• 20 June – Hezbollah Secretary General Nasrallah threatens to strike Cyprus if it grants Israel access to its ports.
• 12 June – Hezbollah fires 400+ rockets into Israel rockets as deep as Tiberias and Haifa.
• 11 June – Israel assassinates Taleb Abdullah, Hezbollah’s commander of the Nasr regional division.

Analysis

The current status quo only benefits Iran, who, through Hezbollah, is probing and attriting Israel’s missile defense system at great cost to Israel. It does not appear that either side is itching for a full-scale war, with a highly sectarian Lebanon on the verge of becoming a failed state and Israel feeling the economic, social, and military effects of having activated its reservists for such a long period. Israel and Lebanon also have displaced populations that need to return home. The only realistic off-ramp that can prevent the conflict from escalating would be a settlement to the War in Gaza. The prospects remain elusive, especially now that the U.S. election cycle is entering an intense phase, and future American policy in the region is uncertain.

Israel aims to create a buffer zone in southern Lebanon to prevent Hezbollah from launching anti-tank guided missiles at Israeli border communities and to demand the withdrawal of Hezbollah's elite Radwan Brigade from the area. Israel's priority is to ensure the safe return of displaced Israelis to their homes in the north. Meanwhile, Hezbollah seeks to avoid an Israeli war on Lebanon and maintain its current domination of the Lebanese state. Additionally, the U.S. is pressuring both Israel and Hezbollah to avoid a broader conflict that could involve both the U.S. and Iran. Hezbollah is Iran’s most prized geostrategic tool, serving as its chief proxy in the region. It is the lynchpin of Iran’s “ring of fire” around Israel (and U.S. forces) — its forward defense strategy to protect the regime and its nuclear program. Iran can’t afford to lose its main deterrent.

Looking Forward

There are four plausible scenarios for how the war of attrition on the Lebanon border will continue:

Scenario 1: Limited Escalation

• The Israeli Air Force (IAF) initiates a large-scale air campaign across southern Lebanon, primarily steering clear of population centers. The operation focuses on eliminating Hezbollah’s drone and rocket units near the border.
• In response, Hezbollah is likely to retaliate, but it may avoid targeting major Israeli cities if Israel similarly avoids civilian areas in Lebanon, primarily in southern Beirut.

Scenario 2: Miscalculation/Mistake

• An errant Hezbollah rocket kills Israeli civilians, or the next Israeli airstrike on a high-value target could spur a major conflict.

Scenario 3: Pre-emptive War

• Both parties share a huge advantage in leveraging the element of surprise to score a knockout blow. Israel needs to eliminate enough of Hezbollah’s estimated 40,000 - 80,000 short-range rockets in the first 24 hours before they are launched, and Hezbollah needs to disable the IAF and Israel’s air defense radars and interceptor batteries. The cost of failure is very high for the entire region.
• It is possible that Iran gets involved directly, and highly likely that its proxies in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen will intervene to a greater degree than at present.
• Airports and critical infrastructure will be targeted and destroyed.

Scenario 4: Gaza Cease-fire/De-escalation   

• Israeli forces eliminate Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar or other senior Hamas leaders in Gaza and potentially rescue more hostages, providing Prime Minister Netanyahu with some leeway to consider compromising on the cease-fire proposal. The prime minister needs a victory in Gaza to prevent the collapse of his governing coalition, and Hamas won’t agree to anything that would preclude its future rise to power in Gaza.
• A diplomatic solution would involve Hezbollah partially withdrawing its fighters some 6-8 miles from the Israel border, while Israel partially withdraws from some of the 13 disputed points along the Lebanon border and halts overflights.

Honduras Digs Deeper on Anti-Gang Strategy Despite Criticism

On 15 June, Honduran President Xiomara Castro took to television and announced a series of proposals to combat organized crime, particularly in the most violent municipalities. These latest proposals piggyback onto an active state of emergency first declared in November 2022. Initially set for 45 days in Tegucigalpa and San Pedro Sula, the state of emergency has been repeatedly extended and now covers over 90% of the population. It allows suspension of parts of the Constitution in the fight against gang crime.

Honduran leadership, inspired by the success of neighboring El Salvador in reducing violent crime rates, is striving to implement a similar approach. However, the proposed measures have been met with criticism for their lack of a comprehensive strategy and their poor results thus far from the ongoing state of emergency.

Notable 15 June Proposals

• Construction of a 20,000-capacity prison between the departments of Olancho and Gracias a Dios.
• Requesting Congress to reform the penal code so that drug traffickers and members of criminal gangs who commit specific crimes can be designated as terrorists and tried collectively in court.
• Immediate arrest of "intellectual authors, leaders, and gang members."

Global Guardian recommends the use of secure transportation within Honduras.

Analysis

In many municipalities, extensions of the state of emergency without Congressional ratification have risked prosecutions, with only eight people convicted of extortion in the first three months of 2024 compared to 105 in all of 2022. In addition, while homicide rates have declined, this decline is happening in municipalities both under the state of emergency and those outside it, casting doubt on the government's claims of success being tied to the suspension of constitutional rights.

The latest proposals target symptoms rather than the root cause of crime. The ongoing corruption within security forces and both the judiciary and executive branches means it will take a long time to fill up the proposed 20,000-person prison. Earlier this year, the former president of Honduras, Juan Orlando Hernandez, was sentenced in an American court to 45 years in prison for drug trafficking and related firearms offenses. Without rooting out corruption and empowering security forces and the courts to enforce laws and convict criminals, violent crime will persist.

Looking Forward

Honduras seems to be stuck in the same security gray zone as Ecuador following its own declaration of gangs as terrorist organizations earlier in 2024 after gang violence spilled out of prisons and into the streets of Guayaquil and elsewhere. Without taking the extreme and extrajudicial step that El Salvador has taken of arresting and imprisoning nearly all suspected gang members, Honduras will continue to struggle to make a real dent in organized crime and associated violence.  

On 25 June 2024, the government of Kenya passed a tax increase, setting off large-scale protests in Nairobi's Central Business District during morning and afternoon hours. These anti-government protests quickly turned violent as protesters stormed Parliament and other government buildings in the immediate area. Police responded with live ammunition, rubber bullets, tear gas, and water cannons. Several people were killed and more than 100 injured in the unrest. A crackdown on protesters and further unrest is likely following late-night comments made by President William Ruto.

Taiwan | New CAledonia

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.

China’s Reaction to President Lai Ching-te’s Inauguration Address Presages Cross-strait Tumult

On 23 May, the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) commenced the two-day Joint Sword 2024A exercise simulating a blockade of Taiwan. This marks the third round of large-scale military drills around Taiwan over the last two years, with the previous iteration in response to then-Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen's April 2023 visit to the U.S. Regional tensions are rising in the aftermath of Lai’s Inauguration and the Shangri-La Dialogue.

Joint Sword 2024A took place in five maritime areas outside of Taiwan’s territorial waters (more than 12 nautical miles from its coast), mainly near the ports of Kaohsiung and Keelung, around Taiwan's outlying island groups of Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, and Dongyin, as well as in the Taiwan Strait and east of Taiwan. According to the PLA's Eastern Theater Command (ETC), the drills are "punishment for the Taiwan independence separatist forces" and are meant to serve as "a serious warning to external forces for interference and provocation." The exercise comes on the heels of new Taiwanese President (William) Lai Ching-te’s 20 May inauguration speech in which he referred to China by name, rather than "the mainland," noted that neither China nor Taiwan were subordinate to one another, and called on China "to cease their (sic) political and military intimidation against Taiwan."

China's Joint Sword 2024A Military Drills

• Global Guardian assesses that the window for China to blockade or invade Taiwan is open.
• It is likely that a Chinese blockade of Taiwan will begin as a military exercise not unlike Joint Sword 2024A.
• We recommend that all firms with operations or interests in East and South East Asia begin to prepare for the possibility of a major disruption in the near to medium terms.

Recent Events

• 03 June – Taiwan announces a series of live-fire drills simulating the defense from a Chinese amphibious assault.

• 02 June – Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun accuses Taiwan of “pursuing separation,” in address at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore.

• 24 May – Between 20,000-80,000 protesters gathered outside Taiwan's Legislative Yuan in Taipei to protest the opposition parties' efforts to enact legislative reforms that would increase the legislature's power over the executive branch.

• 23 May – China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) warned the United States (U.S.) not to schedule any congressional visits to Taiwan.

• 23 May– PLA begins Joint Sword 2024A drills around Taiwan.

• 23 May – Taiwanese President (William) Lai Ching-te is inaugurated.

Analysis

Lai’s inauguration leaves Beijing with few carrots left to offer Taiwan and an ever-growing stick as the Peoples Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and China’s informal navies grow in strength and practice blockading Taiwan. The recent Chinese drills focused on joint sea-air combat but were shorter than previous iterations. In addition, no Chinese ships entered Taiwan’s territorial waters, and there were no airspace closures.

The language used in Lai’s inaugural address was not received well in Beijing but fit the narrative it has built around President Lai being a secessionist. At Asia’s premiere defense gathering, China’s defense minister Jun used unprecedented language, implicitly threatening aggression against Taiwan and the Philippines.

Looking Forward

By naming the exercise Joint Sword 2024A, China is signaling that it may conduct another similar exercise this year, an event made more likely through another high-level American visit to Taipei or if Lai visits the U.S. The current hung parliament will allow Beijing to carry out both overt and covert destabilization operations to undermine Taiwan’s democratic system and harm Lai’s and the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) image.

Since February, China has sought to normalize gray zone military activity around and within Kinmen’s waters, with the intent of inculcating its permanent coast guard presence in Taiwan’s frontline islands. These islands will likely become a future flashpoint following a real or manufactured incident.

Violent Unrest in New Caledonia Highlights Multi-Domain Great Power Frictions

On 13 May, violent protests in Noumea — the capital of the French Pacific territory of New Caledonia — ignited a large-scale wave of civil unrest in New Caledonia. So far, the riots have led to seven deaths, hundreds of injuries, disruptions to travel and commerce, roughly a billion Euros in damage, and soaring nickel prices. While the violence has abated since its peak in late May, unrest and sporadic clashes between local factions and security forces are likely to continue for weeks to come. New Caledonia’s unrest illustrates the growing convergence of social, political, and economic threats as “domestic” issues are increasingly internationalized.

The indigenous ethnic Kanak people are protesting against an expansion of local voter rolls to include large swaths of ethnic French transplants — which would effectively erase Kanak aspirations for independence. When legislators in Paris passed the vote on 15 May, violence escalated. Pro-independence demonstrators began erecting barricades, setting fire to businesses, and engaging in violent clashes with police and informal loyalist militias. French President Emmanuel Macron’s administration implemented a state of emergency on 16 May that included a curfew and the banning of TikTok. Some 3,500 French security personnel, including gendarmes (militarized police), marines, and special police units such as RAID and GIGN, were deployed to logistical hubs, including the ports and airport. French security forces have since secured the island’s ports and international airport.

• Global Guardian advises against any unnecessary travel to New Caledonia.
• Avoid all protests and concentrations of security forces or protesters.

Timeline

• 05 June – Flights resume from Tontouta International Airport (NOU).
• 28 &29 May – The TikTok ban and state of emergency are lifted.
• 26 May – Pro-independence leadership states full independence from France as their official goal for future negotiations and instructs protesters to change to a lower-intensity posture but to maintain barricades and a presence in the street indefinitely as talks progress.
• 22 May – President Macron visits the territory.
• 18 May – 600 gendarmes, including 100 GIGN operatives, attempt to clear the road from the international airport to the capital Noumea.
• 16 May – Paris enacts a state of emergency. TikTok is banned in the territory. French military personnel are deployed to take control of seaports and airports.
• 15 May – French legislatures pass a bill extending the franchise to a large swatch of ethnic French residents previously denied the right to vote in local elections.
• 13 May – Small-scale violence breaks out at protests in Noumea as Kanak independence groups anticipate a vote in Paris that could close the path to eventual independence.

Context

France colonized New Caledonia in the mid-19^th century. Since its colonization, New Caledonia’s native Kanak population has experienced discrimination and economic exploitation, especially regarding the profit distribution of the territory’s nickel deposits. In the 1980s, ethnic and economic tensions erupted into a civil war that saw assassinations and kidnappings, as well as dozens of fatalities and thousands of injuries.

This spate of violence ended with France’s recognition of the Kanaks as New Caledonia’s native population and a commitment to New Caledonian autonomy or eventual independence under the “Noumea Accords” framework. The Accords called for three rounds of referenda based on frozen voter rolls –—only citizens who were residents of New Caledonia in 1998 could vote — which were executed in 2018, 2020, and 2021. The first two referenda resulted in minor wins for the “stay” camp. But pro-Independence organizations boycotted the 2021 referendum after their request for postponement due to Covid was denied, leading to a 96.7% vote in favor of remaining.

Pro-Independence factions in New Caledonia rejected the outcome of the referenda as illegitimate and characterized Paris’s move to unfreeze the voter rolls as “recolonization.” However, New Caledonia’s nickel deposits (30% of global reserves), its 1.36 million square kilometer exclusive economic zone (EEZ), and its centrality to France’s Pacific presence make it difficult for Paris to relinquish the territory.

Analysis

France possesses 12 overseas territories — not including Corsica — that together account for roughly 2.6 million people. Mayotte, Guadeloupe, Martinique, and Corsica have all experienced significant unrest that necessitated security intervention in the past five years. In the context of France’s increasingly global political and economic aspirations, the friction between France’s peripheral territories and Paris is only set to intensify.

France’s impulse to cement control of the territory is made more salient by the support for independence offered by Paris’s adversaries. Azerbaijan — spurned by French arms transfers and political backing for Armenia — actively coordinates with and supports at least 14 political movements that advocate for the independence of French territories. These include New Caledonia, French Polynesia, Corsica, Guadeloupe, and Martinique. Russia and China have also made statements in support of the Kanak protesters. The latter is particularly concerning to Paris as Beijing has an extensive economic and political presence in the South Pacific, extending to relationships with pro-independence politicians in New Caledonia.

Tensions in overseas territories threaten France’s strategic autonomy — its overarching objective. When France was evicted from Niger, it lost access to its main source of Uranium which is critical both to France’s green energy sector — nuclear power supplies roughly 70% of Frances's energy needs — and to its standalone nuclear umbrella. Nickel is essential for manufacturing high-end batteries used in electric vehicles and other green technology. Should France lose New Caledonia to a pro-Chinese regime, it would lose control over 30% of the world’s nickel reserves — a necessary asset in the competition against Chinese electric vehicles.

Looking Forward

The violence may escalate if sufficient steps toward Kanak autonomy are not taken. The Kanak independence organizations, particularly the FLNKS, see this as an existential fight and are willing to escalate violence substantially. French retaliation against Azerbaijan could take the form of increased support for Armenia and attacks on Azerbaijan’s political position through international organizations. New Caledonian protesters may seek to draw attention to their cause through protest action at the upcoming Paris Olympics.

More broadly, information campaigns targeting separatists and minorities are likely to take on an increasingly effective role in the ongoing hybrid war between the U.S.-led international order and its opponents. Therefore, unrest is likely to increase in areas with substantial mineral deposits necessary for green energy technology. Large reserves of cobalt, copper, lithium, nickel, manganese, and rare earths in underdeveloped areas will likely see increased great power competition over access.

NATO Countries | United States

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Russia Escalates Sabotage Campaign in the West

A Russian espionage and sabotage campaign in Europe and North America has intensified over the past several months. As Ukraine’s allies augment the quality and quantity of their support for Kyiv, Moscow appears poised to increase the use of “active measures” against Western targets, including operations ranging from cyberattacks and disinformation to sabotage and targeted violence. Private companies — particularly those linked to the Ukrainian war effort — are at growing risk from Russian sabotage and disruptive activities.

In the past month, several conspicuous fires have broken out at factories in the West producing military supplies for Ukraine. On 03 May, a major chemical fire was reported at a Berlin factory owned by German arms company Diehl Group, which manufactures Ukraine-bound air-to-air missiles, leading to a brief evacuation of the nearby area. On 17 April, a BAE Systems factory in southern Wales that produces 155mm artillery shells (a critical commodity on the front in Ukraine) suffered a major explosion. Similarly, on 15 April, an army ammunition plant that manufactures the same shells in Scranton, Pennsylvania, caught fire. Two men in Britain were also detained last month for setting fire to a warehouse containing aid destined for Ukraine. While evidence linking Russian agents to these incidents has thus far emerged in only one case, past instances of such sabotage have been attributed to Russian military intelligence.

Russia is also disrupting logistics in Ukraine-allied countries where it can. On 30 April, Finnair announced a month-long suspension of flights to the Estonian city of Tartu due to Russian GPS jamming in the Baltic. In Sweden, security services are investigating a spate of freight derailments as possible acts of Russian sabotage. In Czechia, rail signaling systems have come under what is believed to be Russian attacks. Additionally, on 17 April, two German-Russian dual nationals were arrested for scouting targets — including U.S. military bases — for Russian sabotage.

• Global Guardian recommends that companies involved in military supply chains conduct robust security audits and increase physical and cyber security measures.
• We recommend a heightened security posture for firms with assets or personnel in Eastern Europe, particularly the Baltics and Poland.

Previous Russian-Attributed Sabotage Incidents

• 25 June 2023: A large fire is reported at the EMKO arms depot in Karnobat, Bulgaria.
• 27 April 2015: EMKO’s owner, Emilian Gebrev, and his son, are poisoned in an assassination attempt by GRU team 29155.
• 03 December 2015: A series of explosions linked to GRU unit 29155 take place at Warehouse No. 20 near Vrbetice, Czechia.
• 16 October 2014: Explosion at Warehouse No. 16 linked to GRU unit 29155 near Vlachovice, Czechia.

Context

These incidents highlight a clear pattern: Russia’s clandestine efforts are taking on a distinctly material objective, crossing the line that divides routine intelligence gathering from what Russian intelligence calls “active measures.” Russia’s all-of-society approach to its own prosecution of the war in Ukraine is mirrored in attacks on “all of Western society,” including, primarily, those companies that provide aid in any form to Ukraine. Incidents of this kind will likely increase in frequency as Russia exploits the gap between the importance of and security posture of private enterprises supporting the war effort in the West.

Analysis

Russia’s overarching strategic objective for the medium term is to convince the Ukrainian people and Western policymakers that a Russian victory is inevitable. While the path to a Ukrainian victory is hazy, if Russia is able to demoralize Ukraine and hamstring Western aid, Moscow has a clear route to securing a favorable bargaining position in future peace talks.

Russia’s aggressive actions in the West are also, in part, a response to asymmetric Ukrainian successes within Russia itself. Ukrainian operatives successfully carried out dozens of acts of sabotage inside Russia, including the destruction of a key Siberian rail tunnel last winter, the bombing of a munitions factory near Moscow, and an explosion at an intercontinental ballistic missile plant.

While Russia is doing everything it can to hit infrastructure in Ukraine with its drone and missile salvos, most of Ukraine’s munition production is done in Western countries where a drone or missile attack would be too provocative — potentially leading to a direct confrontation with NATO. Unable to attack Western manufacturing overtly and unwilling to let support to Ukraine flow unimpeded, Russia has chosen the middle path of hybrid war.

Looking Forward

We expect increased attacks on critical infrastructure and defense manufacturing in Ukraine’s principal allies, including the Baltic states, Poland, France, the UK, Germany, and the United States. Water management systems and hospitals — which often lack protections against sophisticated cyber actors — are particularly at risk. The likelihood of a Russian cyberattack on the upcoming Olympic Games is also very high. A Russian attack — similar to the one carried out during the 2018 Olympics — is made more likely by Macron’s recent support for putting European troops in Ukraine.

Anti-Israel Campaign Intensifies, Presaging More Unrest

Anti-Israel protests have spread from campuses in the United States (U.S.) to Canada, Europe, Australia, and Mexico in the largest student-led protest movement since the Vietnam War. In many instances, protests have been met by heavy-handed policing or counter protesters. Despite the coming end of the academic year, the protests are unlikely to dissipate in the near term. Unrest related to the war in the Middle East will likely continue to disrupt business and travel into the near term.

On 17 April, Columbia University’s president, Minouche Shafik, was called before a congressional hearing concerning antisemitism on U.S. campuses. Shafik, unlike previous university heads from Harvard, Yale, and MIT, took a hard line against antisemitic rhetoric at anti-Zionist student protests. In response, anti-Israeli protesters formed an encampment on Columbia’s grounds. On 18 April the encampment was forcefully cleared by NYPD at the university’s request, resulting in more than 100 arrests. Over the following weeks, protesters set up encampments modeled on Columbia’s at dozens of universities. As a result, commencements at Columbia and USC have been canceled. At least 2,800 protesters have been arrested or detained since Columbia’s encampment was cleared across roughly 50 campus protests.

• Global Guardian recommends avoiding university campuses and the surrounding areas if possible.
• We expect more commencement ceremonies to be canceled.
  
  

Context

The October 7 Hamas Pogrom in Israel and the subsequent Israeli invasion of Gaza set off a wave of global civil unrest. More than eighty countries have seen anti-Israel protests, including major demonstrations in the U.S., France, Germany, the Netherlands, the UK, and Canada.

In the U.S., the protests quickly became polarized along generational lines. Young Americans are overwhelmingly critical of Israel’s campaign in Gaza, while older generations — which include both President Biden and most Congress members — have remained largely supportive of Israel’s right to self-defense.

Starting in October of 2023, students began protesting Israel’s response to the Hamas attack. Initially, university faculty were supportive of the protesters — even going so far as to condone a minority of demonstrators who had engaged in legitimately antisemitic and pro-Hamas rhetoric. This led to the resignation of multiple university presidents, including Harvard’s.

Timeline

• 15 April: As part of a global “economic blockade to free Palestine,” demonstrators block traffic on Interstate 880 in Oakland, the Golden Gate Bridge in San Francisco Bay Area, Interstate 190 leading into O’Hare International Airport in Chicago, the Brooklyn Bridge in New York, Interstate 5 in Eugene, Oregon, the State Route 518 off-ramp to Seattle Tacoma Airport, and Interstate 76 and I-95 in Philadelphia.
• 17 April: Columbia University President addresses Congress; campus encampment begins.
• 18 April: Columbia encampment is partially cleared by NYPD with over 100 people detained.
• 21-22 April: NYU, Yale, University of Michigan, MIT, Emerson, and Tufts students set up encampments. Dozens of protesters are arrested at NYU and Yale.
• 30 April: Columbia students occupy Hamilton Hall and UCLA’s protest is attacked by counterdemonstrators using pepper spray and fireworks for four hours before police intervene and clear the encampment.
• 02-03 May: Students in Paris occupy one of Science Po’s buildings; French police forcefully remove protesters at Science Po.
• 06 - 07 May: Columbia University cancels graduation ceremony. Police and protesters clash in and around the University of Amsterdam, Netherlands.

Analysis

The anti-Israel movement has modeled itself in large part on the anti-Vietnam War protest movement, which saw large-scale student participation, and a violent crackdown by security services, including, famously, the killing of four students at Kent State University in Ohio. The U.S.’s military support for Israel and the crack down on anti-Israeli demonstrations have deeply energized a youth population whose median position on Israel was already highly negative. Added to this are the youth’s overwhelmingly negative perception of the police, which is borne in part from the legacy of the 2020 BLM protest movement.

The encampment tactics were designed to force university action through disruption. But under the threat of congressional pressure, the action that university leaders were able to take — clearing encampments — did not alleviate student-led protests but rather inflamed them.

Looking Forward

While many schools are undergoing their final exams now, the anti-Israel protest movement is not likely to dissipate with the arrival of summer break. As foreshadowed at the Met Gala, White House Correspondents Dinner, and elsewhere, anti-Israeli protesters will attach themselves to any event that draws significant media attention or has any meaningful connection to Israel, Israeli economic interests, or the Biden administration.

This summer, both President Biden and former President Donald Trump are set to attend their respective party's nominating conventions, events that are expected to attract political energy and attention. Additionally, this period marks the fourth anniversary of the widespread protests that erupted across the country after George Floyd's death in Minneapolis. As such, we expect protests and disruptions to continue.

On 13 April 2024, after days of speculation and mounting tensions in the region, Iran reportedly launched upwards of 500 one-way suicide drones and cruise missiles during late evening hours local time toward Israel in retaliation for Israel's airstrike on Iran's embassy in Damascus, Syria that killed an IRGC commander. The slow moving drones (approximately 7-9 hour travel time) and cruise missiles (two hour travel time) passed over Iraqi, Syrian, and Jordanian airspace. Most were intercepted before reaching Israeli airspace. Only a handful of missiles and drones successfully impacted Israeli territory, with 99% destroyed in the air.