State Dept. Renews Ukraine Travel Advisory as Large Scale Russian & Ukranian Drills are Underway

Situation update

Updated February 11, 2022, 2:30 EST

• The U.S. is not ruling out that Russia could carry out the invasion of Ukraine before the end of the Olympics.
• At 11:00 ET, President Biden held a call with the leaders of Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Romania, NATO, the European Commission, and the European Council to coordinate on Ukraine. Per separate CNN and PBS reports, the U.S. has warned allies that Russia could attack Ukraine as early as next week but in a State Department presser, it also reiterated that it still does not know whether President Putin has made a final decision
• Intelligence suggests that the conflict would begin with two days of aerial bombardment and electronic warfare, followed by an invasion, rendering air, rail, and ground movements highly risky.
• There has been a massive uptick in ceasefire violations in the breakaway Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk recorded in the past 24 hours. 
• The UK, Netherlands, Japan, South Korea, and Latvia are advising all their nationals to leave Ukraine immediately. The EU and Israel are also evacuating non-essential diplomatic staff from Ukraine. Meanwhile, the U.S. is evacuating its members of the OSCE Ukraine Special Monitoring Mission.
• The Biden administration has made a decision to send 3,000 additional troops from the 82 Airborne to Poland in the coming days.
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov canceled a trip to Israel in the last minute where he was expected to land on Monday.  

• On 10 February, U.S. President Biden urged American citizens in Ukraine to evacuate immediately, warning that the U.S. military will not rescue American citizens caught in the crossfire in the event of a full-scale invasion. This comes as the U.S. State Department issued a renewed Travel Advisory for Ukraine: "Do not travel to Ukraine due to the increased threats of Russian military action..." Meanwhile, Russia is mulling pulling its non-essential diplomatic staff from Ukraine.

Diplomatic Space

• Talks between Russia and Ukraine in Berlin failed to reach a breakthrough. Both countries could not agree on a single interpretation of the 2015 Minsk Protocol, the agreement to end the conflict between pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine and the Ukrainian government. Russia stated that discussions with Ukraine could not continue until it agrees to include the separatists in negotiations.
• On 10 February, the EU gave a collective response to Russian security proposals sent to individual member states. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov previously stated in talks on 09 February that a collective response from the EU would cause diplomatic efforts with Russia to stall. The content of the letter has not been made public.
• UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson met with the leaders of NATO and Poland on 10 February to discuss additional contributions the UK could make to eastern Europe’s defense, warning that the “most dangerous moment” in the conflict could occur in the next few days.

Military/Strategic Space

• In the military sphere, new satellite images from 09 February show that Russia has added to its military deployments in Crimea, Belarus, and near the Russia-Ukraine border. Both Russia and Ukraine formally began their respective military exercises on 10 February. Both drills are set to conclude on 20 February. 
• Slovakia approved a defense pact with the U.S. on 09 February. The agreement allows the U.S. to use two Slovak airports for the next decade and qualifies Slovakia for $100 million in U.S. funds. Slovakia shares a very short, mountainous border with Ukraine, making it the final NATO member on the organization’s eastern border to enter into a defensive agreement with the U.S.
• U.S. troops arrived in Romania on 09 February to support European defenses. They are the latest deployments of nearly 3,000 additional troops the U.S. has committed to Poland and Romania to defend Ukraine’s border with NATO.

Information Space

• On 11 February, the leader of the separatist Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) announced the discovery of 130 mass grave sites of civilians allegedly killed by Ukrainian forces. This claim could be used as a Casus Belli for military escalation.  

Other Updates

• The U.S. has urged semiconductor manufacturers to diversify their supply chain and increase resilience to disruptions that Russia would cause by invading Ukraine. Over 90% of the industry’s neon supply is sourced from Ukraine and 35% of U.S. palladium comes from Russia.

Advice

• Global Guardian recommends against non-essential travel to Ukraine.
• Expats should consider leaving Ukraine while commercial flights remain available.
• Those who remain in-country should prepare emergency supplies. 
• Secure your assets and prepare your emergency evacuation plan.

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