U.S. Intel: Russian Buildup 70% complete

Situation update

• According to U.S. intelligence, Russia has reached 70% of the forces it would need for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The same report warned of as many as 50,000 civilian deaths in the event of a Russian assault on Kyiv. This comes as updated satellite images now show that the Russian field army that was stationed near Yelnya has moved to a town 50 kilometers from the Ukraine border. The buildup is likely to continue under the auspices of the ongoing Russian-Belorussian "Allied Resolve" military exercise that is not set to conclude until 20 February. 
• On 07 February, the United Kingdom diverted 350 Royal Marines from Norway to Poland and Germany pledged to send 350 more troops to Lithuania.
• Russian President Putin met with French President Macron on Monday. While no agreement was reached, Putin stated the discussion was, “rather feasible for creating a foundation for our further steps.” Meanwhile, in Washington, German Chancellor Scholz met with U.S. President Biden to discuss a cohesive response to the ongoing crisis. President Biden vowed to shut down the Nord Stream 2 pipeline - which is set to bring Russian fuel to Germany - if President Putin issues the order to invade Ukraine.
• To combat the increase in Russian cyber operations in Ukraine, Microsoft released an updated report on the techniques, tactics, and procedures (TTPs) used by ACTINIUM, a Russian FSB-linked threat group based in Crimea. The group is showing increased activity using attachments in phishing emails that imitate official correspondence to gain access to networks in Ukraine.
• Russian ships are on track to arrive at the Black Sea between 08 February and 11 February for naval exercises, constituting the largest Russian naval grouping in the area since the fall of the USSR.

Advice

• Global Guardian recommends against non-essential travel to Ukraine.
• Expats should consider leaving Ukraine while commercial flights remain available.
• Those who remain in-country should prepare emergency supplies. 
• Secure your assets and prepare your emergency evacuation plan.

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