During the evening hours on 20 December 2024, an unknown assailant drove his vehicle at full speed into the Christmas market in Magdeburg, Germany, killing at least one person and injuring upwards of 80 more in a possible terror attack.

Global Guardian's December Risk Barometer, published earlier this month, highlighted the increased risk to Christmas markets, religious gatherings, and other large public events over the holiday season as individuals or groups see them as an opportunity to conduct symbolically valuable attacks.

Haiti | Europe

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.

Vigilante Groups Rise Up in Haiti Despite Kenyan Police Deployment

The rise of self-defense groups in Haiti has emerged as a response to the general insecurity driven by rampant gang activity. Despite the recent deployment of some 1,000 Kenyan police, risks from violence, kidnapping, and extortion are increasing, particularly in the capital, Port-au-Prince, where some 95 gangs control 85% of the city.

Conditions have deteriorated to the point that Doctors Without Borders (MSF) suspended its activities in the capital on 19 November until further notice, due to several threats and attacks made against its patients and staff by police officers. Both the French and U.S. embassies closed for several days at the end of November due to violence. Since 11 November, at least 150 people have been killed, 92 others injured and some 20,000 more displaced in Port-au-Prince amid gang clashes, with gangs now controlling all the main roads in and out of the city. Flight operations at Port-au-Prince's international airport were suspended from 11 November, when gangs opened fire on a Spirit Airlines flight, until at least 11 December.

Context

In the last several months, the formation of self-defense groups has gained momentum as residents seek to reclaim their neighborhoods from gang control. These vigilante groups have emerged from communities that feel abandoned by state authorities and police forces, which have been unable or unwilling to provide adequate security. The "Bwa Kale" movement is one such example, characterized by vigilantism where community members take matters into their own hands against suspected gang members. Since April 2023, over 350 suspected gang members have reportedly been killed by vigilante mobs as communities react to the pervasive threat of violence, extortion, and kidnapping. On 19 November, at least 45 Viv Ansanm coalition gang members were killed in clashes with police and vigilantes in Pétion-Ville, Canapé Vert, Boudon, Route Frères, Christ-Roi, Poste Marchant and Delmas, Port-au-Prince, after the gang attempted to invade the area. Police continue to go after Viv Ansanm coalition leader Jimmy “Barbeque” Cherizier.

This situation is exacerbated by a political crisis that has left a power vacuum, allowing gangs to act with impunity. The United Nations Security Council has responded by deploying a Multinational Security Support (MSS) force, including Kenyan police officers, to assist Haitian National Police (PNH) in restoring order. However, this intervention has not yet significantly curbed the violence or improved security conditions on the ground.

The Mexican Autodefensa Playbook

The rise of self-defense groups in Haiti can be compared to the autodefensas that emerged in Mexico's Jalisco and Michoacán states around 2013. In both cases, local populations formed armed groups in response to the inability of state authorities to protect them from violent criminal organizations.

Similarities:

• Community Response: Both movements arose from communities facing severe threats from organized crime. In Mexico, autodefensas were formed primarily from lime and avocado farmers against drug cartels that terrorized local populations; similarly, Haitian self-defense groups are responding to gang violence and kidnappings.
• Vigilantism: Both phenomena involve elements of vigilantism where community members take up arms against perceived threats when state security forces are ineffective or corrupt.
• Political Vacuum: In both contexts, a lack of effective governance has allowed criminal organizations to flourish. In Mexico, corruption within law enforcement agencies often hindered effective responses to cartel violence; in Haiti, political instability has led to a similar breakdown of order.

Differences:

• Scale and Organization: The autodefensas in Mexico have evolved into more structured organizations with varying degrees of legitimacy and political influence. In contrast, Haitian self-defense groups are less organized and more spontaneous, driven primarily by immediate survival needs rather than long-term political objectives.
• Strong Personalities: The Mexican autodefensas grew on the backs of strong personalities such as Papa Smurf and Dr. Jose Manuel Mireles. Without similarly strong leaders, the Haitian vigilante groups may not be able to endure and effect change.
• Government Response: The Mexican government has at times co-opted autodefensas into official security structures, while in Haiti, the response has been more about external intervention (e.g., Kenyan police deployment) rather than integrating local self-defense efforts into formal security frameworks.

Gang Control and General Unrest

The pervasive control exerted by gangs over critical infrastructure such as ports and transport routes in Port-au-Prince further complicates the security landscape. Gangs have effectively taken control of main roads leading into and out of the city, collecting passage fees and creating an environment where travel is fraught with danger. This control extends to Toussaint L'Ouverture International Airport, which was temporarily closed due to gunfire incidents involving commercial flights.

The rise of self-defense groups is thus both a symptom and a response to this broader context of violence. As gang clashes continue—resulting in thousands of deaths and displacements—the formation of these groups reflects a desperate attempt by communities to assert control over their safety amidst widespread chaos.

Risks Rise in Europe for Holidays

Growing jihadist threats, Russian hybrid warfare, and spillover from the conflict in the Middle East join extant domestic tensions in making Europe’s holiday season higher risk than normal. On 28 November, Germany’s Interior Minister Nancy Faeser called for “great vigilance” in the upcoming holiday season. Similarly, Canada recently updated travel advisories for five Western European countries, and at least 10 EU countries have announced temporary border restrictions for December and January, citing increased terror risk.

• Global Guardian recommends intelligence monitoring ahead of and during any planned trips to Europe this holiday season.
• We advise having contingency plans in place for sudden travel disruptions that could be caused by attacks, unrest, or sabotage.
• Avoid all protests and demonstrations as these can quickly escalate into violence in addition to constituting high-value targets for attacks.

Jihadism on the Rise

With the return of great power conflict, attention and resources have been shifted away from the War on Terror. But jihadist groups have the upper hand in multiple conflicts. On 27 November, the Al-Qaeda-linked Syrian rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) commenced an unexpected offensive against regime forces, rapidly capturing the government stronghold of Aleppo. In the Sahel, various jihadist groups, including Islamic State affiliates, have extended their territory in a series of victories over local security forces. Additionally, the Islamic State Khorasan branch (IS-K) has successfully conducted multiple attacks over the last year, including the attack on the Crocus City Hall in Moscow in March, which killed 145 people and wounded over 500 others.

Jihadist success in regional conflicts can facilitate and incentivize attacks in the West. Terror networks in Somalia, for example, have connections in Sweden and Italy, while networks in Burkina Faso and Mali have connections in France and Belgium. These groups see the holiday season in Europe as an opportunity to conduct symbolically valuable attacks on soft targets such as Christmas markets, religious services, and other large public gatherings. To that end, Islamic State chat rooms have been increasingly active with specific references to attacks during the holidays.

Russian Hybrid Warfare

Moscow perceives itself to be in existential competition with the West and has increasingly pursued the use of sabotage, assassinations, cyber war, and disinformation campaigns to create divides in European society, weakening its resistance to Russian influence and coercion. Russia’s current attempt to maximize its position in Ukraine ahead of likely negotiations is likely to translate into a higher rate of hybrid operations in Europe.

Spillover from the Conflict in the Middle East

The increased terror risk is partially attributable to spillover from the conflict in the Middle East. Widespread sympathy for Palestinians and condemnation of Israeli actions in Europe is in friction with the largely pro-Israeli policies of European governments. The intersection of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict with Jihadist narratives and the “legitimization” of targeting Europeans creates an environment highly conducive to lone-wolf terrorists. Russian disinformation campaigns have also exacerbated the polarization surrounding the Israel-Palestine conflict

Sentiments surrounding the conflict in the Middle East are highly polarized and have led to multiple—at times violent—confrontations between pro-Palestine protesters, European security forces, and pro-Israel protesters. On 08 November in Amsterdam, a series of provocative actions between Israeli Maccabi Tel Aviv fans and local Muslim and Arab residents culminated in a night of violence, leading to five hospitalizations and the evacuation of the Israeli fans. Dozens of pro-Palestine protests in Europe over the past year have escalated into violence as governments limit protest approvals over concerns of antisemitism.

Domestic Tensions

All the dynamics above contribute to extant domestic tensions manifest in increased unrest, political volatility, and the growing success of far-right and far-left parties across Europe. A combination of economic inequality, inflation, and demographic changes leave the continent charged for unrest. The triggers for this unrest are varied and difficult to predict. Recently, flooding in Spain, a stabbing attack in the UK, and a football match in the Netherlands have all instigated mass unrest.

Looking Forward

As threat vectors converge in Europe this holiday season the risks of conflict, terror, and destabilization are twofold. A flashpoint in any one of these domains—such as a terror attack or violent unrest—presents acute threats to travelers. But a flashpoint in one area also increases the risk of setting off a trigger in another. As the baseline risks for the continent continue to grow, all risk-multiplying events going forward—including the holiday season—are likely to be more dangerous than in years past.

During a surprise late-night address, President Yoon Suk Yeol declared nationwide martial law, citing the need to "eradicate pro-North Korean forces and protect constitutional order." It is the first time a South Korean president has declared martial law since the military dictatorship ended in 1987. The move comes amid a looming impeachment of Yoon by the opposition party that controls Parliament, which he has accused of sympathizing with North Korea and undermining the government with "anti-state" activities.

Following the declaration, lawmakers gathered at the National Assembly building and held an emergency vote to negate the martial law. The vote passed with 190 lawmakers voting to lift the declaration. Soldiers were seen leaving the National Assembly building shortly after the vote. Martial law can be lifted with a majority vote of the National Assembly; however, the declaration bans all political activities, including those of the National Assembly, so it remains to be seen how the crisis plays out.

South Korean army chief, Park An-Soo, was named martial law commander, and he banned all political activities and placed all media under military control. There are unconfirmed reports of armored military vehicles in Seoul, along with military jets landing near the National Assembly building in Seoul. 

Disruptions in the country can be expected in the coming days.

Taiwan Strait | Marburg Virus

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.

Cross-Strait Tension Mounting Ahead of U.S. Election

On 14 October 2024, the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) commenced Joint Sword 2024B, a 13-hour long exercise simulating a blockade of Taiwan. Joint Sword 2024B is the second drill this year and marks the fourth major PLA drill around Taiwan since August 2022. A chaotic presidential transition in the United States (U.S.) increases the likelihood that China’s next war game is not just demonstration but an opening act.

Over the last 4 years, Chinese military aircraft and vessels have entered Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) on a near-daily basis, with activity spiking during exercises. Joint Sword 2024B featured 153 aircraft, 14 naval vessels, and 12 Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) vessels and included sorties from the Liaoning aircraft carrier. The drills also took place closer to Taiwan's coast than previous exercises, featuring an expanded role for the Chinese Coast Guard. Joint Sword 2024B takes PLA activity around Taiwan one major step further by blurring the line between drill and blockade.

• PLA live fire drills can potentially lead to abrupt commercial flight cancellations, impacting travel.
• Global Guardian recommends that firms with exposure to East Asia plan for the possibility of a blockade or invasion of Taiwan in the coming 36 months. For more information on this topic see our 2024 Taiwan Shock Index.

Recent Events

• 26 October: U.S. approves USD $2 billion Taiwan air defense arms package to include three National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS). China condemned the sale and threatened countermeasures.
• 21 October: China holds live-fire drills near the Pingtan Islands in response to USS Higgins and Royal Canadian HMCS Vancouver’s transit through the Taiwan Strait on 20 October.
• 14 October: PLA launches Joint Sword 2024B around Taiwan in response to Taiwan President Lai’s National Day speech.
• 13 October: The Taiwan Ministry of National Defense signs formal purchase agreements to procure as many as 1,000 loitering drones from U.S. defense companies. 
• 10 October: President Lai Ching-te Delivers Taiwan National Day Address.

Analysis

Joint Sword 2024B featured two additional coercive elements as compared to the previous three drills: surprise and sanctions. The flash exercise had no warning or disclosure of closed military zone locations, nor did the PLA state the end date or time. In parallel, Beijing sanctioned a Taiwanese lawmaker and billionaire Robert Tsao, as well as three U.S. defense firms and ten senior executives.

Joint Sword 2024B is part and parcel of China’s salami-cutting strategy. In this strategy, China carefully and teleologically maneuvers, disguising offensive actions as defensive, allowing it to secure a strategic edge incrementally. This tactic leaves its targets – all countries it neighbors at sea – with a difficult dilemma: slow attrition or rapid brinksmanship.

Looking Forward

China has now demonstrated to the international community, Taiwan, and the United States that it could effectively impose a maritime blockade of Taiwan at will. The Joint Sword Drills are steps in a long chain of events that may reach a breaking point in the coming 36 months. CIA Director William Burns has publicly stated that the intelligence community believes that President Xi Jinping has ordered the PLA to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027.

Beijing can leverage many possible triggers to impose a blockade. These range from (but are not limited to:

• Domestic Taiwanese crises (political or typhoon-related)
• Delivery of strategic military assets (air defense systems, uncrewed surface vehicles, ATACMS)
• U.S.-China trade negotiations
• High-level Taiwan-U.S. bilateral meetings
• Formal changes to the America’s One China Policy or Taiwan Relations Act
  
  

Marburg Virus Outbreak in Rwanda: What Travelers Need to Know

The recent outbreak of Marburg virus disease (MVD) in Rwanda has raised concerns for travelers planning to visit the country. As of October 31, 2024, Rwanda has reported 65 confirmed cases, and 15 deaths related to this rare but severe hemorrhagic fever. Global Guardian Medical Director Dr. Shelly Weisenfeld notes that “with the memory of the Ebola virus and known similarities with Marburg, the WHO and CDC quickly collaborated in tracking the illness and investigating vaccine options." While the outbreak appears to be contained and the risk to most travelers remains low, it is crucial to stay informed and take necessary precautions.

Affected Areas

The outbreak has primarily affected several districts in Rwanda, including:

• Kigali (Nyarugenge, Kicukiro, and Gasabo districts)
• Kamonyi (Southern province)
• Nyagatare and Gatsibo (Eastern province)
• Rubavu (Western province)
• Most cases have been reported among healthcare workers in Kigali hospitals

Transmission and Symptoms

Marburg virus is typically spread through:

• Direct contact with bodily fluids of infected individuals
• Indirect contact with contaminated surfaces or materials
• Contact with infected animals, particularly fruit bats

Early symptoms of MVD include:

• High fever
• Severe headaches
• Muscle aches
• Diarrhea
• Nausea and vomiting
• Rash (usually on the chest)

Travel Precautions

If planning to travel to Rwanda, consider the following advice:

• Practice good hygiene: Wash your hands frequently or use hand sanitizers.
• Avoid contact with sick individuals: Steer clear of people showing symptoms of illness.
• Stay away from animals: Avoid contact with wild animals, especially bats and monkeys.
• Be cautious at funerals: Avoid direct contact with bodies during burial rituals.
• Monitor your health: Be aware of any symptoms and seek medical attention immediately if you feel unwell.
• Follow local guidelines: Adhere to any restrictions or preventive measures implemented by Rwandan authorities.
• Be prepared for health screenings: Expect temperature checks at ports of entry, hotels, and tourist sites.

Impact on Travel

While lockdown measures have been ruled out, travelers should be aware of the following:

• Gatherings of more than 50 people for funerals of Marburg victims are banned.
• Some establishments have shifted to remote working.
• Neighboring countries like Kenya and Uganda have implemented surveillance measures at entry points.
• The United States has announced health screening for inbound travelers from Rwanda.

At approximately 02:30 local time on 26 October 2024, Israel began strikes on Iran in retaliation for its massive 01 October missile attack on Israel. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesman announced that “…The Israel Defense Force is now precisely attacking military targets in Iran." Initial local reports indicate explosions near Tehran, Mashhad, and Karaj in Iran. Both United States (U.S.) and Israeli officials expect a military response from Iran. Israel is believed to have struck the IRGC building in Tehran. Israeli airstrikes against Syrian Regime Air Defenses in Suwayda and Homs were also reported.

Travel disruptions in the region can be expected in the coming days.

SPECIAL REPORT

Hurricane Milton, currently a Category 4 storm, is expected to make landfall tonight just south of Tampa Bay along the Gulf coast of Florida. According to current estimates, Milton is expected to bring hurricane-force winds for the entirety of its trip east across central Florida along with heavy rain. Storm surge will impact nearly the entire Gulf coast of Florida The most at-risk areas between Anna Maria Island and Boca Grande face 10-15 feet of storm surge. The surge could move several miles inland. Portions of Tampa Bay will see 8-12 feet of surge, though the latest models show it will avoid the worst-case scenario. Portions of the Atlantic coast will see 3-5 feet of storm surge as well as inland flooding due to heavy rain.

• The following airports are closed:
  
  
  • Tampa International Airport 
  • St. Pete-Clearwater International Airport
  • Orlando International Airport
  • Southwest Florida International Airport
  • Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport

• Mandatory and voluntary evacuation orders have been issued for communities along the Gulf coast. Heavy traffic out of Florida has been reported, along with gasoline shortages.
• Global Guardian has pre-positioned emergency response personnel, equipment, food, water, and other resources for immediate deployment in the aftermath of the storm. 
  
  
  

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES

• To view Global Guardian’s 2024 Hurricane Preparedness Guide, click here.
• For those currently in Florida, we also advise consulting the Florida Division of Emergency Management here.
  
  

Middle East | Mexico

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.

October 7th War Enters a New Phase

On 01 October, Iran launched a retaliatory strike on Israel with some 180 medium-range ballistic missiles to avenge the killings of Hamas’ political leader in Tehran and Hezbollah’s senior leadership, including its leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut. On 30 September, Israel commenced ground incursions into Lebanon as part of a “new phase” of its conflict with Hezbollah. The security and humanitarian situation in much of Lebanon is rapidly deteriorating as flights and other operations are disrupted across the region. As Israel plans its next steps, this new phase of the October 7th War is likely to expand into a more direct confrontation with Iran.

Israeli forces clashed with Hezbollah fighters inside Lebanon on 02 and 03 October as the IDF Air Force continued to strike Hezbollah targets in south Beirut and elsewhere in the country. The IDF claims to have killed roughly 100 Hezbollah fighters and has lost at least eight of its troops over two days of combat. Over a million people have been displaced in Lebanon so far and more than one hundred thousand people remain displaced in Israel, as Hezbollah continues to pummel Israel cities and towns from the border south to Haifa. Israel has implemented a partial blockade of Lebanon to prevent Iran from flying in arms and aid to Hezbollah and the IDF Air Force is conducting strikes on major crossings between Lebanon and Syria. Air travel disruptions stemming from Iran’s missile strike on Israel on 01 October have continued in anticipation of further strikes. Long lines have developed at regional airports as flights are canceled, delayed, or diverted away from the region’s airspace.

• Global Guardian recommends against all travel to Lebanon and all non-essential travel to Israel.
• Firms with personnel in Lebanon should arrange for their evacuation.
• Firms with personnel in Israel should have contingency plans for evacuation and shelter-in-place orders.

Recent Events

• 08 October: Following large Hezbollah rocket barrage, Israel closes schools in the Haifa area.
• 06 October: Iran cancels all commercial flights overnight.
• 03 October: Israel and Hezbollah forces clash in several towns on the Lebanese side of the border.
• 01 October: Iran fires 180 ballistic missiles at targets in central and southern Israel.
• 30 September: Israel launches limited ground incursions into Lebanon.
• 27 September: Israel kills Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah in an airstrike on the Dahiya suburb south of Beirut. Some 20 other high-level Hezbollah and Iranian officers are killed in the same strike.
• 23 September: Israel begins preparatory strikes across Lebanon.
• 17-19 September: Israel conducts two waves of attacks on sabotaged pagers, walkie-talkies, and other communications devices and decapitates Hezbollah’s Rwandan leadership in a bunker. The attacks killed dozens and wounded thousands of possible Hezbollah fighters.

Analysis

Hezbollah is a key Iranian strategic asset, as the proximity of the group’s substantial missile arsenal to Israel provides Iran with a “loaded gun” — the threat of an all-out missile attack by Hezbollah balances Israel’s nuclear deterrent through mutually assured destruction. Israel’s overarching goal is to reverse Iran’s “unity of areas concept” by defanging Hamas and Hezbollah to the point where they can no longer be used as a strategic cudgel against Israel. Hamas’s military threat has been eliminated and Hezbollah’s strategic threat is being rapidly eroded by the day. While the IDF and Hezbollah have been exchanging fire over the border since 08 October 2023, Israel has decimated its leadership, and is intensifying airstrikes on its high-value assets. Israel’s incursion into Lebanon itself represents a much more direct threat to Hezbollah’s value as an Iranian deterrent.

In this light, Iran’s ballistic strike on Israel on 01 October was Tehran’s attempt to re-establish deterrence and mitigate Israel’s current escalation dominance. But the attack was too robust to be ignored and by targeting Israel’s nuclear reactor and offshore oil assets, Iran has opened the door for Israel to respond in kind. Israel is poised to attack the Iranian military (air defense/radar, missile bases), economic (oil refineries/production facilities/export terminals), and nuclear sites or a combination thereof. Iran will soon need to decide whether to:

• Continue an attrition campaign: Maintain extreme political and economic and high military pressure on Israel by continuing the October 7^th War via its “ring of fire” (regional proxies). But it risks slowly losing its vice around Israel as Lebanon and northern Israel continue to come under fire.
• Cut its losses: Allow Hezbollah to be severely degraded while seeking assurances that its own territory will not be further attacked. This could involve a new diplomatic agreement with the U.S. over its nuclear program and a partial revision to the 2005 status quo in the region.
• Escalate: Engage in a more direct war with Israel by expending Hezbollah’s remaining strategic weapons, launching more medium-range missiles into Israel and mining the Strait of Hormuz, or targeting Saudi oil infrastructure.

Looking Forward

Israel has promised to respond to Iran’s missile attack and is likely preparing strikes on Iranian targets. President Biden has signaled that Israel may receive U.S. support for such strikes while warning Israel not to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. The scope and scale of the attack could reshape the regional security landscape and prompt an Iranian nuclear breakout.

Iran sent a message to the United States through Qatar saying “the phase of unilateral self-restraint" has ended and has stated that an Israeli attack on Iran would be met with an “unconventional” response. Iran’s other proxies in the region, particularly in Iraq and Syria, are likely to attempt to join direct fighting against the IDF in Lebanon in the case of escalation.

The Houthis may restart threatening Saudi oil infrastructure.

War in Sinaloa: Violence Erupts Between Los Chapitos and El Mayo Factions

Since September 9, 2024, the Mexican state of Sinaloa has witnessed a significant increase in cartel violence as the two dominant factions of the Sinaloa Cartel wage a brutal internal war. The conflict pits Los Chapitos, sons of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, against allies of Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada and his son Mayo Flaco, resulting in widespread violence, civilian casualties, and a climate of fear across the state. The violence kicked off several weeks after El Mayo Zambada was “kidnapped” by Joaquin Guzman and brought to the U.S. for arrest by authorities.

Escalating Violence

The violence has been concentrated in Culiacán, the state capital, but has spread to surrounding areas as well. Some key developments include:

• At least 53 homicides reported, with over dozens of people missing.
• Gruesome displays of violence, including tortured bodies left on highways with symbolic objects placed on them.
• Narco blockades and clashes between cartel members and security forces.
• Seizure of significant weaponry, including assault rifles, armored vehicles, and even drones.

Government Response

• The Mexican government has deployed over 2,200 additional troops to the region. In a significant development, the Mexican military took the step of disarming the entire Culiacán Municipal Police force on October 2, 2024. Law enforcement is now carried out by the military.
• This action was taken due to suspicions of collusion between local law enforcement and organized crime groups as well as corruption among municipal officers. Similar steps have been taken against other state and local law enforcement agencies in the past due to suspicion of collusion and corruption.

Propaganda

On September 29, 2024, El Mayos dropped propaganda flyers from drones over Culiacán, accusing Los Chapitos of betraying El Mayo and causing unnecessary violence in Sinaloa. The message also claimed that Los Chapitos were responsible for the deaths of innocent people and urged the public to support El Mayo's faction. This tactic is reminiscent of nation-state conflicts where propaganda flyers were dropped from aircraft on residents.

Impact on Civilians

The ongoing conflict has severely disrupted daily life in Sinaloa:

• Schools and businesses have been closed and business hours are reduced.
• Residents live in constant fear, with violence erupting unpredictably.
• Innocent bystanders have been caught in the crossfire.

On 01 October, it was reported that Iran was preparing for a ballistic missile barrage targeting Israel in retaliation for the massive airstrikes on Hezbollah HQ that killed its leader, Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah on 27 September. The same strikes also took out some 20 other senior Hezbollah officials and likely Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) handlers. The threat of Iranian missiles prompted the U.S. Embassy in Israel to issue a shelter-in-place warning and comes after Israel launched a ground incursion into Lebanon on 30 September. Many nations continue to advise their citizens to leave Lebanon by commercial means while still available. 

SPECIAL REPORT

Hurricane Helene, currently a Category 2 storm, is expected to make landfall tonight as a Category 4 storm in the Big Bend area of Florida. According to current estimates, Helene is expected to make landfall between 9 p.m. and 11 p.m. EDT, with maximum sustained winds of 130-135 mph and gusts up to 150 mph or higher. Storm surge will impact areas as far south as the Florida Keys up to Mobile, AL. The most at-risk areas face 15-20 feet of storm surge. Portions of Tampa Bay will see 6-10 feet of surge. Strong easterly winds off the Atlantic will lead to storm surge and coastal flooding from northeastern Florida up to the coast to South Carolina. 

Prolonged rainfall from Helene will lead to flooding in many areas, including the panhandle of Florida, and parts of Georgia, the Carolinas, Alabama, and Tennessee into the Southern Appalachians. 

• The following airports are closed:
  
  • Tampa International Airport 
  • St. Pete-Clearwater International Airport
  • Tallahassee Regional Airport
• Mandatory and voluntary evacuation orders have been issued for communities from Sarasota County up to Gulf County near the panhandle.
• A large part of Georgia will get hit with tropical storm-force winds as Helene moves north. The storm may spawn tornados as it moves overland. Atlanta International Airport is likely to face disruptions as the center of Helene passes by to the east.
  
  

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES

• To view Global Guardian’s 2024 Hurricane Preparedness Guide, click here.
• For those currently in Florida, we also advise consulting the Florida Division of Emergency Management here.
  
  

From Beirut to Tel Aviv, the northern front of the October 7th War has reached an inflection point. In the last week, Israel has nearly decimated Hezbollah’s senior leadership, destroyed hundreds of its launchers, and wounded several thousand of its members in a series of operations to blow up Hezbollah-linked communication devices.