Taiwan Strait | Marburg Virus

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.

Cross-Strait Tension Mounting Ahead of U.S. Election

On 14 October 2024, the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) commenced Joint Sword 2024B, a 13-hour long exercise simulating a blockade of Taiwan. Joint Sword 2024B is the second drill this year and marks the fourth major PLA drill around Taiwan since August 2022. A chaotic presidential transition in the United States (U.S.) increases the likelihood that China’s next war game is not just demonstration but an opening act.

Over the last 4 years, Chinese military aircraft and vessels have entered Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) on a near-daily basis, with activity spiking during exercises. Joint Sword 2024B featured 153 aircraft, 14 naval vessels, and 12 Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) vessels and included sorties from the Liaoning aircraft carrier. The drills also took place closer to Taiwan's coast than previous exercises, featuring an expanded role for the Chinese Coast Guard. Joint Sword 2024B takes PLA activity around Taiwan one major step further by blurring the line between drill and blockade.

• PLA live fire drills can potentially lead to abrupt commercial flight cancellations, impacting travel.
• Global Guardian recommends that firms with exposure to East Asia plan for the possibility of a blockade or invasion of Taiwan in the coming 36 months. For more information on this topic see our 2024 Taiwan Shock Index.

Recent Events

• 26 October: U.S. approves USD $2 billion Taiwan air defense arms package to include three National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS). China condemned the sale and threatened countermeasures.
• 21 October: China holds live-fire drills near the Pingtan Islands in response to USS Higgins and Royal Canadian HMCS Vancouver’s transit through the Taiwan Strait on 20 October.
• 14 October: PLA launches Joint Sword 2024B around Taiwan in response to Taiwan President Lai’s National Day speech.
• 13 October: The Taiwan Ministry of National Defense signs formal purchase agreements to procure as many as 1,000 loitering drones from U.S. defense companies. 
• 10 October: President Lai Ching-te Delivers Taiwan National Day Address.

Analysis

Joint Sword 2024B featured two additional coercive elements as compared to the previous three drills: surprise and sanctions. The flash exercise had no warning or disclosure of closed military zone locations, nor did the PLA state the end date or time. In parallel, Beijing sanctioned a Taiwanese lawmaker and billionaire Robert Tsao, as well as three U.S. defense firms and ten senior executives.

Joint Sword 2024B is part and parcel of China’s salami-cutting strategy. In this strategy, China carefully and teleologically maneuvers, disguising offensive actions as defensive, allowing it to secure a strategic edge incrementally. This tactic leaves its targets – all countries it neighbors at sea – with a difficult dilemma: slow attrition or rapid brinksmanship.

Looking Forward

China has now demonstrated to the international community, Taiwan, and the United States that it could effectively impose a maritime blockade of Taiwan at will. The Joint Sword Drills are steps in a long chain of events that may reach a breaking point in the coming 36 months. CIA Director William Burns has publicly stated that the intelligence community believes that President Xi Jinping has ordered the PLA to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027.

Beijing can leverage many possible triggers to impose a blockade. These range from (but are not limited to:

• Domestic Taiwanese crises (political or typhoon-related)
• Delivery of strategic military assets (air defense systems, uncrewed surface vehicles, ATACMS)
• U.S.-China trade negotiations
• High-level Taiwan-U.S. bilateral meetings
• Formal changes to the America’s One China Policy or Taiwan Relations Act
  
  

Marburg Virus Outbreak in Rwanda: What Travelers Need to Know

The recent outbreak of Marburg virus disease (MVD) in Rwanda has raised concerns for travelers planning to visit the country. As of October 31, 2024, Rwanda has reported 65 confirmed cases, and 15 deaths related to this rare but severe hemorrhagic fever. Global Guardian Medical Director Dr. Shelly Weisenfeld notes that “with the memory of the Ebola virus and known similarities with Marburg, the WHO and CDC quickly collaborated in tracking the illness and investigating vaccine options." While the outbreak appears to be contained and the risk to most travelers remains low, it is crucial to stay informed and take necessary precautions.

Affected Areas

The outbreak has primarily affected several districts in Rwanda, including:

• Kigali (Nyarugenge, Kicukiro, and Gasabo districts)
• Kamonyi (Southern province)
• Nyagatare and Gatsibo (Eastern province)
• Rubavu (Western province)
• Most cases have been reported among healthcare workers in Kigali hospitals

Transmission and Symptoms

Marburg virus is typically spread through:

• Direct contact with bodily fluids of infected individuals
• Indirect contact with contaminated surfaces or materials
• Contact with infected animals, particularly fruit bats

Early symptoms of MVD include:

• High fever
• Severe headaches
• Muscle aches
• Diarrhea
• Nausea and vomiting
• Rash (usually on the chest)

Travel Precautions

If planning to travel to Rwanda, consider the following advice:

• Practice good hygiene: Wash your hands frequently or use hand sanitizers.
• Avoid contact with sick individuals: Steer clear of people showing symptoms of illness.
• Stay away from animals: Avoid contact with wild animals, especially bats and monkeys.
• Be cautious at funerals: Avoid direct contact with bodies during burial rituals.
• Monitor your health: Be aware of any symptoms and seek medical attention immediately if you feel unwell.
• Follow local guidelines: Adhere to any restrictions or preventive measures implemented by Rwandan authorities.
• Be prepared for health screenings: Expect temperature checks at ports of entry, hotels, and tourist sites.

Impact on Travel

While lockdown measures have been ruled out, travelers should be aware of the following:

• Gatherings of more than 50 people for funerals of Marburg victims are banned.
• Some establishments have shifted to remote working.
• Neighboring countries like Kenya and Uganda have implemented surveillance measures at entry points.
• The United States has announced health screening for inbound travelers from Rwanda.

At approximately 02:30 local time on 26 October 2024, Israel began strikes on Iran in retaliation for its massive 01 October missile attack on Israel. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesman announced that “…The Israel Defense Force is now precisely attacking military targets in Iran." Initial local reports indicate explosions near Tehran, Mashhad, and Karaj in Iran. Both United States (U.S.) and Israeli officials expect a military response from Iran. Israel is believed to have struck the IRGC building in Tehran. Israeli airstrikes against Syrian Regime Air Defenses in Suwayda and Homs were also reported.

Travel disruptions in the region can be expected in the coming days.

SPECIAL REPORT

Hurricane Milton, currently a Category 4 storm, is expected to make landfall tonight just south of Tampa Bay along the Gulf coast of Florida. According to current estimates, Milton is expected to bring hurricane-force winds for the entirety of its trip east across central Florida along with heavy rain. Storm surge will impact nearly the entire Gulf coast of Florida The most at-risk areas between Anna Maria Island and Boca Grande face 10-15 feet of storm surge. The surge could move several miles inland. Portions of Tampa Bay will see 8-12 feet of surge, though the latest models show it will avoid the worst-case scenario. Portions of the Atlantic coast will see 3-5 feet of storm surge as well as inland flooding due to heavy rain.

• The following airports are closed:
  
  
  • Tampa International Airport 
  • St. Pete-Clearwater International Airport
  • Orlando International Airport
  • Southwest Florida International Airport
  • Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport

• Mandatory and voluntary evacuation orders have been issued for communities along the Gulf coast. Heavy traffic out of Florida has been reported, along with gasoline shortages.
• Global Guardian has pre-positioned emergency response personnel, equipment, food, water, and other resources for immediate deployment in the aftermath of the storm. 
  
  
  

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES

• To view Global Guardian’s 2024 Hurricane Preparedness Guide, click here.
• For those currently in Florida, we also advise consulting the Florida Division of Emergency Management here.
  
  

Middle East | Mexico

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.

October 7th War Enters a New Phase

On 01 October, Iran launched a retaliatory strike on Israel with some 180 medium-range ballistic missiles to avenge the killings of Hamas’ political leader in Tehran and Hezbollah’s senior leadership, including its leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut. On 30 September, Israel commenced ground incursions into Lebanon as part of a “new phase” of its conflict with Hezbollah. The security and humanitarian situation in much of Lebanon is rapidly deteriorating as flights and other operations are disrupted across the region. As Israel plans its next steps, this new phase of the October 7th War is likely to expand into a more direct confrontation with Iran.

Israeli forces clashed with Hezbollah fighters inside Lebanon on 02 and 03 October as the IDF Air Force continued to strike Hezbollah targets in south Beirut and elsewhere in the country. The IDF claims to have killed roughly 100 Hezbollah fighters and has lost at least eight of its troops over two days of combat. Over a million people have been displaced in Lebanon so far and more than one hundred thousand people remain displaced in Israel, as Hezbollah continues to pummel Israel cities and towns from the border south to Haifa. Israel has implemented a partial blockade of Lebanon to prevent Iran from flying in arms and aid to Hezbollah and the IDF Air Force is conducting strikes on major crossings between Lebanon and Syria. Air travel disruptions stemming from Iran’s missile strike on Israel on 01 October have continued in anticipation of further strikes. Long lines have developed at regional airports as flights are canceled, delayed, or diverted away from the region’s airspace.

• Global Guardian recommends against all travel to Lebanon and all non-essential travel to Israel.
• Firms with personnel in Lebanon should arrange for their evacuation.
• Firms with personnel in Israel should have contingency plans for evacuation and shelter-in-place orders.

Recent Events

• 08 October: Following large Hezbollah rocket barrage, Israel closes schools in the Haifa area.
• 06 October: Iran cancels all commercial flights overnight.
• 03 October: Israel and Hezbollah forces clash in several towns on the Lebanese side of the border.
• 01 October: Iran fires 180 ballistic missiles at targets in central and southern Israel.
• 30 September: Israel launches limited ground incursions into Lebanon.
• 27 September: Israel kills Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah in an airstrike on the Dahiya suburb south of Beirut. Some 20 other high-level Hezbollah and Iranian officers are killed in the same strike.
• 23 September: Israel begins preparatory strikes across Lebanon.
• 17-19 September: Israel conducts two waves of attacks on sabotaged pagers, walkie-talkies, and other communications devices and decapitates Hezbollah’s Rwandan leadership in a bunker. The attacks killed dozens and wounded thousands of possible Hezbollah fighters.

Analysis

Hezbollah is a key Iranian strategic asset, as the proximity of the group’s substantial missile arsenal to Israel provides Iran with a “loaded gun” — the threat of an all-out missile attack by Hezbollah balances Israel’s nuclear deterrent through mutually assured destruction. Israel’s overarching goal is to reverse Iran’s “unity of areas concept” by defanging Hamas and Hezbollah to the point where they can no longer be used as a strategic cudgel against Israel. Hamas’s military threat has been eliminated and Hezbollah’s strategic threat is being rapidly eroded by the day. While the IDF and Hezbollah have been exchanging fire over the border since 08 October 2023, Israel has decimated its leadership, and is intensifying airstrikes on its high-value assets. Israel’s incursion into Lebanon itself represents a much more direct threat to Hezbollah’s value as an Iranian deterrent.

In this light, Iran’s ballistic strike on Israel on 01 October was Tehran’s attempt to re-establish deterrence and mitigate Israel’s current escalation dominance. But the attack was too robust to be ignored and by targeting Israel’s nuclear reactor and offshore oil assets, Iran has opened the door for Israel to respond in kind. Israel is poised to attack the Iranian military (air defense/radar, missile bases), economic (oil refineries/production facilities/export terminals), and nuclear sites or a combination thereof. Iran will soon need to decide whether to:

• Continue an attrition campaign: Maintain extreme political and economic and high military pressure on Israel by continuing the October 7^th War via its “ring of fire” (regional proxies). But it risks slowly losing its vice around Israel as Lebanon and northern Israel continue to come under fire.
• Cut its losses: Allow Hezbollah to be severely degraded while seeking assurances that its own territory will not be further attacked. This could involve a new diplomatic agreement with the U.S. over its nuclear program and a partial revision to the 2005 status quo in the region.
• Escalate: Engage in a more direct war with Israel by expending Hezbollah’s remaining strategic weapons, launching more medium-range missiles into Israel and mining the Strait of Hormuz, or targeting Saudi oil infrastructure.

Looking Forward

Israel has promised to respond to Iran’s missile attack and is likely preparing strikes on Iranian targets. President Biden has signaled that Israel may receive U.S. support for such strikes while warning Israel not to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. The scope and scale of the attack could reshape the regional security landscape and prompt an Iranian nuclear breakout.

Iran sent a message to the United States through Qatar saying “the phase of unilateral self-restraint" has ended and has stated that an Israeli attack on Iran would be met with an “unconventional” response. Iran’s other proxies in the region, particularly in Iraq and Syria, are likely to attempt to join direct fighting against the IDF in Lebanon in the case of escalation.

The Houthis may restart threatening Saudi oil infrastructure.

War in Sinaloa: Violence Erupts Between Los Chapitos and El Mayo Factions

Since September 9, 2024, the Mexican state of Sinaloa has witnessed a significant increase in cartel violence as the two dominant factions of the Sinaloa Cartel wage a brutal internal war. The conflict pits Los Chapitos, sons of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, against allies of Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada and his son Mayo Flaco, resulting in widespread violence, civilian casualties, and a climate of fear across the state. The violence kicked off several weeks after El Mayo Zambada was “kidnapped” by Joaquin Guzman and brought to the U.S. for arrest by authorities.

Escalating Violence

The violence has been concentrated in Culiacán, the state capital, but has spread to surrounding areas as well. Some key developments include:

• At least 53 homicides reported, with over dozens of people missing.
• Gruesome displays of violence, including tortured bodies left on highways with symbolic objects placed on them.
• Narco blockades and clashes between cartel members and security forces.
• Seizure of significant weaponry, including assault rifles, armored vehicles, and even drones.

Government Response

• The Mexican government has deployed over 2,200 additional troops to the region. In a significant development, the Mexican military took the step of disarming the entire Culiacán Municipal Police force on October 2, 2024. Law enforcement is now carried out by the military.
• This action was taken due to suspicions of collusion between local law enforcement and organized crime groups as well as corruption among municipal officers. Similar steps have been taken against other state and local law enforcement agencies in the past due to suspicion of collusion and corruption.

Propaganda

On September 29, 2024, El Mayos dropped propaganda flyers from drones over Culiacán, accusing Los Chapitos of betraying El Mayo and causing unnecessary violence in Sinaloa. The message also claimed that Los Chapitos were responsible for the deaths of innocent people and urged the public to support El Mayo's faction. This tactic is reminiscent of nation-state conflicts where propaganda flyers were dropped from aircraft on residents.

Impact on Civilians

The ongoing conflict has severely disrupted daily life in Sinaloa:

• Schools and businesses have been closed and business hours are reduced.
• Residents live in constant fear, with violence erupting unpredictably.
• Innocent bystanders have been caught in the crossfire.

On 01 October, it was reported that Iran was preparing for a ballistic missile barrage targeting Israel in retaliation for the massive airstrikes on Hezbollah HQ that killed its leader, Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah on 27 September. The same strikes also took out some 20 other senior Hezbollah officials and likely Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) handlers. The threat of Iranian missiles prompted the U.S. Embassy in Israel to issue a shelter-in-place warning and comes after Israel launched a ground incursion into Lebanon on 30 September. Many nations continue to advise their citizens to leave Lebanon by commercial means while still available. 

SPECIAL REPORT

Hurricane Helene, currently a Category 2 storm, is expected to make landfall tonight as a Category 4 storm in the Big Bend area of Florida. According to current estimates, Helene is expected to make landfall between 9 p.m. and 11 p.m. EDT, with maximum sustained winds of 130-135 mph and gusts up to 150 mph or higher. Storm surge will impact areas as far south as the Florida Keys up to Mobile, AL. The most at-risk areas face 15-20 feet of storm surge. Portions of Tampa Bay will see 6-10 feet of surge. Strong easterly winds off the Atlantic will lead to storm surge and coastal flooding from northeastern Florida up to the coast to South Carolina. 

Prolonged rainfall from Helene will lead to flooding in many areas, including the panhandle of Florida, and parts of Georgia, the Carolinas, Alabama, and Tennessee into the Southern Appalachians. 

• The following airports are closed:
  
  • Tampa International Airport 
  • St. Pete-Clearwater International Airport
  • Tallahassee Regional Airport
• Mandatory and voluntary evacuation orders have been issued for communities from Sarasota County up to Gulf County near the panhandle.
• A large part of Georgia will get hit with tropical storm-force winds as Helene moves north. The storm may spawn tornados as it moves overland. Atlanta International Airport is likely to face disruptions as the center of Helene passes by to the east.
  
  

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES

• To view Global Guardian’s 2024 Hurricane Preparedness Guide, click here.
• For those currently in Florida, we also advise consulting the Florida Division of Emergency Management here.
  
  

From Beirut to Tel Aviv, the northern front of the October 7th War has reached an inflection point. In the last week, Israel has nearly decimated Hezbollah’s senior leadership, destroyed hundreds of its launchers, and wounded several thousand of its members in a series of operations to blow up Hezbollah-linked communication devices.

Mexico | Central Africa

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.

Judicial Reform Proposal Sparks Concern in Mexico

Mexico's judiciary is on the brink of a major overhaul as President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's controversial reform proposal advances through Congress. This sweeping change would transform the country's judicial system by replacing appointed judges with elected ones, including Supreme Court justices. With change comes risk, and there are concerns that this reform could make things worse in Mexico, where rampant corruption and fear of cartel violence make prosecuting murder, kidnapping, extortion, and theft difficult. Additionally, elections in Mexico could become even more violent as organized criminal groups seek to exploit this reform.

The Proposed Reform

The reform package, which has already passed Mexico's lower house of Congress, aims to:

• Require all 7,000 federal judges to be elected by popular vote
• Allow any lawyer with basic qualifications to run for judgeship
• Introduce "hooded judges" for organized crime cases to protect their identities
• Reduce the Supreme Court from 11 to 9 justices and shorten their terms
• Create a judicial disciplinary committee to investigate misconduct and legal reasoning

Potential Impacts on Democracy

• Increased accountability: Proponents argue that elected judges would be more accountable to the people, potentially reducing corruption and cronyism in the judiciary.
• Democratization: The reform could give citizens a more direct voice in shaping the judicial branch, aligning with principles of democratic participation.
• Politicization of the judiciary: Elected judges might be more susceptible to political pressures, potentially compromising their independence and impartiality.
• Influence of organized crime: There are concerns that drug cartels and criminal organizations could field their own candidates or exert undue influence over judicial elections.
• Erosion of checks and balances: Critics argue that this reform could severely weaken the judiciary's role in providing oversight and balance to the executive and legislative branches.
• Election violence: Elections, already violent affairs in Mexico, could witness more associated violence as organized criminal groups seek to undermine the democratic process.

Corruption: Better or Worse?

There are a few ways to view how corruption may play out with regards to this reform.

• Optimistic view: López Obrador and his supporters claim that electing judges will root out existing corruption and democratize a judiciary they believe is currently influenced by organized crime.
• Pessimistic view: Many legal professionals and organizations fear that the proposed system could exacerbate corruption by:

• Opening the door for wealthy individuals or criminal groups to finance judicial campaigns
• Potentially allowing unqualified individuals to become judges through popularity contests rather than merit
• Making judges beholden to political parties or powerful interests that support their elections

International COncerns

The proposed reforms have drawn criticism from the United States and Canada, with concerns about potential negative impacts on foreign investment and Mexico's economy. This international backlash has led to strained diplomatic relations, with López Obrador putting relations with these embassies (not the countries) "on pause".

MPOX Declared Public Health Emergency in Central Africa

The recent mpox outbreak in Central Africa has raised significant concerns among global health authorities, prompting action and increased vigilance both in Central Africa and elsewhere.

In August 2024, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the surge in cases of mpox in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and neighboring countries a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). This declaration came in response to the rapid spread of a new strain of the monkeypox virus, identified as clade 1b, which has been expanding beyond its traditional endemic regions in Central Africa. While this latest outbreak has garnered significant media attention, it does not have the same potential for global disruptive impact as other diseases like COVID-19 or bird flu.

The outbreak, which began in September 2023 in the DRC, has since spread to several neighboring countries, including Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, and Uganda. These countries have reported their first mpox cases, many of which have been linked to travel to eastern parts of the DRC.

Analysis

The current outbreak presents several concerning factors:

• New viral strain: The clade 1b mpox strain differs from previous strains in that it can more easily spread between people, particularly through sexual contact. Since September 2023, it has infected more than 20,000 people and killed over 600, a significantly higher fatality rate than the previous outbreak in 2022.
• Urban spread: Unlike previous outbreaks, the virus is now affecting densely populated areas, increasing the risk of rapid transmission.
• Vulnerable populations: Children under 15 account for about two-thirds of infections in the DRC, raising concerns about the impact on vulnerable groups.
• Limited resources: Many affected countries lack access to mpox vaccines and antivirals, hampering containment efforts.
• Potential for global spread: The outbreak's expansion to multiple countries increases the risk of international transmission.

Recommendations

For travelers considering visits to affected areas:

• Vaccination: Receive the JYNNEOS vaccine (two doses, 4 weeks apart) before arrival in affected areas.
• Avoid close contact: Minimize activities that involve close personal contact, especially with high-risk groups or at social gatherings.
• Animal precautions: Avoid skin-to-skin contact with animals known to carry mpox, such as rodents and primates.
• Hygiene practices: Wash hands frequently with soap and water or use alcohol-based hand sanitizers.
• Awareness: Be alert for symptoms and seek medical attention if you suspect exposure.

Impact on Travel

Several countries began to impose surveillance measures at points of entry and certain airports:

• South Africa 
• Kenya 
• Rwanda
• Tanzania
• Nigeria
• Egypt
• India
• United States
• China
• UK

Bangladesh | Venezuela

In Global Guardian's monthly Risk Barometer, our Intelligence Team highlights current global hotspots with the potential to impact your business operations and travel. Read below for analysis on the threats we are closely monitoring this month and click here to subscribe for regular intelligence updates.

Violence Continues as Parliament Dissolved, PM Hasina Resigns After Weeks of Unrest

On 06 August, Bangladesh President Shahabuddin announced the dissolution of Parliament, allowing for the formation of an interim government with 2006 Nobel Peace Prize winner Muhammed Yunus to serve as leader. After Prime Minister Hasina resigned and fled the country on 05 August, angry mobs ransacked police headquarters in Dhaka, killing several police officers. Graphic images show bodies of policemen hanging from bridges and in beaten piles. Police then announced an indefinite strike, opening the door to more mob violence, vandalism, looting, and destruction. The situation in Bangladesh remains fluid as violence continues nationwide, stemming from student-led anti-quota protests starting in early July.

Current Situation

In addition to Muhammad Yunus leading the interim government, opposition Bangladesh National Party (BNP) leader Khaleda Zia was released. The interim government is also working to have thousands of detained activists released from jail. This will help bring all key voices to the table as the temporary government attempts to restore order and political stability.

In addition to police being targeted, there are reports of Muslim mobs attacking, raping, and killing members of the Hindu minority. The country has a long history of religious violence and there is concern of a larger pogrom targeting Hindus if the interim government cannot take control of the situation. Rail services remain suspended indefinitely. While the internet blockages and curfews were removed or lessened, a heightened security presence remains in place and use of force by police to disperse unauthorized demonstrations is possible.

• Global Guardian recommends against all travel to Bangladesh until the situation stabilizes.
• Leave the country if able.
• Shelter in place as required.
• Avoid all protests and follow local orders around curfews or other restrictions.

Background

Violent protests erupted across Bangladesh in early July, with university students leading the charge against the reinstatement of quotas in government jobs. Initially confined to university campuses, the protests quickly spread to major cities such as Dhaka, Chittagong, Rajshahi, Khulna, and Barisal. These demonstrations then escalated into large-scale marches and sit-ins, blocking key traffic points and resulting in violent clashes between protesters, police, and pro-quota activists. Eventually, the student-led protests morphed into violent, nationwide anti-government protests and riots. The unrest resulted in a nationwide curfew, restrictions on internet use, mass arrests of over 10,000 people, and the use of live ammunition by police, resulting in the deaths of more than 250 people.

Timeline

• 2 July – 05 August: Protests begin and become increasingly violent across Bangladesh. Hundreds of people are killed, thousands arrested.
• 17 July: Authorities implement a 4G mobile internet blackout nationwide.
• 18 July: Authorities suspend broadband internet.
• 19 July: A nationwide curfew was imposed, running from 18:00-07:00 in Dhaka city and surrounding districts, with varying hours in other districts. The curfew included shoot-on-sight orders.
• 21 July: The Supreme Court scraps most of the quotas on government jobs, leading to a gradual return to calm in urban areas.
• 23 July: Authorities restore broadband internet in Dhaka and Chittagong.
• 26 July: Curfew hours are relaxed in Chittagong and Rajshahi, indicating a slight easing of tensions. Police in Dhaka arrest multiple student leaders.
• 29 July: Authorities rescind 4G mobile internet blackout nationwide, but access to social media platforms remains restricted.
• 01 August: Bangladesh government bans Jamaat-e-Islami political party and its student wing as part of crackdown.
• 05 August: Prime Minister Hasina resigns amid pressure from army, flees to India. Interim government is announced, led by Army Chief General Waqar-uz-Zaman.
• 05 August: Protests and clashes continue across Dhaka, Chattogram, and elsewhere. Protesters storm and vandalize police headquarters in Dhaka, killing up to a dozen officers.
• 06 August: Parliament is dissolved, paving way for official formation of interim government. Muhammad Yunus announced as leader of interim government. Activists and political opposition figures are released from detention.

Analysis

The mass unrest and violence seen just over a month after anti-quota protests began shows how quickly action around an issue can spiral out of control, snowballing into nationwide mob violence and proving just how fragile Bangladesh is in its ability to withstand civil unrest.

The government's quota system for civil service posts has been controversial since 1972 when it was first instituted. Critics assert the quota system favors supporters of the ruling Awami Leage party, used to stack public jobs with loyalists, further entrenching their rule. Other factors have contributed to the mass unrest and violence, including the crackdown on student protesters by police, youth unemployment (30 million young people), and general disapproval of the ruling Awami League party. Many Bangladeshis, especially young people, view former Prime Minister Hasina through this lens. Bangladesh has a long history of military rule, including coups. Most recently, the army presided over a caretaker government from 2007-2008 before Parliamentary elections were held.

Looking Forward

The resignation of PM Hasina, dissolution of Parliament, and formation of an interim government led by Nobel Peace Prize winner Muhammad Yunus do not give confidence that law and order will be restored any time soon, especially as the country’s entire police force is on indefinite strike. The military may take over entirely and deploy soldiers nationwide to establish law and order.

There are growing concerns that mob violence will spread and grow, and a military crackdown could further enrage and embolden anti-government protesters in the same way that heavy-handed police tactics garnered sympathy for the student protesters, leading to additional unrest and violence. All of this, combined with the policies enacted by the military in 2007-2008 (large numbers of arbitrary arrests, cases of torture and killing with impunity under state of emergency rules, and restrictions on political and civil liberties), means any military-led government will not be met with the same welcoming attitude as the caretaker government was first met with in 2007.

There is ongoing potential for additional unrest as mobs act with impunity across the country while police officers go on indefinite strike. This is particularly true around key urban areas, including Dhaka, Chittagong, Khulna, and Sylhet. This risk will stay high as long as the government is unable to secure law and order.

Post-Election Unrest Escalates

The recent (28 July 2024) presidential election in Venezuela has plunged the country into a state of unrest and political turmoil, with widespread protests and international condemnation following incumbent President Nicolás Maduro's contested victory. Impacted cities include the capital Caracas as well as Maracaibo and San Cristobal. At least 17 people are reported dead across the country due to unrest and clashes with security forces, while the government claims at least 2,000 people have been arrested. While many countries have denounced the results, others such as China, Iran, Cuba, Honduras, Nicaragua, Bolivia, and Russia were quick to recognize Maduro as the winner. Despite the clearly fraudulent results and resulting unrest, it is likely Maduro will remain in power if he continues to enjoy the political and economic support of the aforementioned countries.

Recommendations

• Avoid all travel to Venezuela in the short-to-medium term.
• Expect heightened security and associated disruptions near all electoral and political/government infrastructure.
• Exercise caution around grocery stores, pharmacies, and petrol stations where looting and unrest can erupt without warning.
• Limit outdoor movement in urban areas, especially at night.
• Anticipate possible disruptions to internet access.
• Avoid all demonstrations and protests due to the risk of incidental injury and arrest.
• Avoid loitering near security forces and government infrastructure.
• In case of unrest, shelter in place and only leave when it is safe.
• Monitor local media for situational updates.
• Review evacuation plans in case of widespread violence and register all travel details with local embassies.

Contested Election

Maduro’s declared victory (51.2% to 44%) over opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia is widely disputed and believed to be fraudulent. On 01 August, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken announced that the Maduro-controlled National Election Council (CNE) results were “deeply flawed.” Supporting evidence provided by Blinken paints a convincing picture that the results were indeed fraudulent:

• The opposition Democratic Unitary Platform has released over 80% of the voting tally sheets collected directly from polling stations across Venezuela. These tallies show Edmundo González Urrutia winning the election by a significant and unbeatable margin.
• Independent observers have verified these results, which are also supported by exit polls and quick counts conducted on election day.
• In the aftermath of the election, the U.S. engaged in extensive consultations with international partners and allies. While different countries have responded in various ways, none have concluded that Nicolás Maduro received the majority of votes in this election.

International Reactions

The following countries severed or suspended diplomatic ties with Venezuela:

• Panama
• Dominican Republic
• Argentina
• Chile
• Costa Rica
• Peru
• Uruguay

Several of these countries have suspended flights with Venezuela as well. Additionally, the Organization of American States said it would request an arrest warrant for Maduro through the International Criminal Court; however, the group failed to reach the 18-vote threshold to pass a resolution asking the CNE to publish voting data.

Key allies Russia, China, Iran, Bolivia, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Cuba, among others, quickly recognized Maduro as the winner of the election.

Analysis

The Maduro administration has long used its control over public institutions to maintain power, and the lead-up to the July election was no different. The opposition candidate González was selected by the Democratic Unitary Platform (PUD) only after former legislator María Corina Machado was barred from holding office for 15 years for alleged corruption after winning the 2023 primary vote. The primary results were also suspended by the Supreme Court amid allegations of fraud, and other opposition figures, including former governor Henrique Capriles and opposition primary commission member Corina Yoris, were barred from running.

Despite more than a decade of dire economic conditions (GDP shrank 74% from 2014-2020 before recovering slightly) and political instability, the Maduro regime has survived multiple destabilization attempts including a failed 2018 assassination attempt against President Maduro, two uprisings by members of the Bolivarian National Guard in 2019, massive anti-government protests also in 2019, a failed mercenary raid in 2020, and now mass unrest following fraudulent elections. As long as the Maduro regime can afford to keep the army, police, and pro-government militias paid, fed, and in relatively good health, the chances of him exiting office are slim. Political and economic support from Cuba, Russia, Iran, China, and elsewhere are key to maintaining regime stability.

Impact and Outlook

The decade-long crisis and surge in violence has already triggered a mass exodus of some seven million refugees, and the latest round of unrest and violence is likely to trigger more migration. The disputed election results may further exacerbate economic instability and international isolation as the Maduro regime blames foreign interference for fomenting unrest.

Continued nationwide anti-government demonstrations are highly likely. The potential for escalated violence between protesters and security forces remains high. Further international diplomatic and economic measures against Venezuela are expected.

On 31 July, the U.S. State Department issued a Level 4 Travel Advisory for Lebanon, advising citizens not to travel to the country amid increasing tensions between Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran. The warning comes after Israel allegedly assassinated Hamas' political leader in a supposedly hardened apartment in Tehran, Iran. The Tehran strike itself comes a day after Israel eliminated a senior Hezbollah commander in southern Beirut in a targeted airstrike. All eyes are on Iran to see how it chooses to respond. The recent events have also triggered flight disruptions in the region.